by Craig Oliver
This morning it’s confirmed he isn’t doing any interviews.
In our cross-campaign call at 7.30 a.m., Ryan Coetzee tries to say to the Labour representative that McDonnell needs to avoid slagging us off. The response is, ‘I have been trying to do that for the last six months. Welcome to the Labour Party.’
The truth is the Labour leadership has contorted itself into a position where it feels it can only support us on its own, very specific terms. This leads to excruciating and baffling soundbites, such as the one Corbyn gave on Saturday, along the lines of, ‘Yes, I want there to be a Leave vote. The Conservatives to leave in 2020.’
I wondered: how the hell does that persuade people to vote Remain?
Lynton’s column in the Telegraph is a fairly devastating condemnation of Leave – he says they need to decide what their core message is.
It’s too early to count our chickens, but the mood in Westminster is increasingly that we are winning. Our campaign is a steamroller, theirs a spluttering steam engine. There’s a healthy degree of nervousness among us, though.
The word from European capitals is that they are ‘in quite a tizzy’ about if we will lose. Some wonder if they should speak out. DC and I say, ‘No!’ in stereo. Our fear is that they will say something that just makes people resent them more. But by the end of the day, Donald Tusk is very emotional about the fact Hitler has been brought into it by Boris.
I sit round the fringes of political cabinet and watch Boris’s body language. He looks exhausted, his wide, pallid right hand spread-eagled across his face. I nudge Graeme and wonder if he is asleep. I don’t blame him – the political cabinet is dull, poring over the local election results and avoiding Europe.
A few hours later, I am watching Boris out on the road campaigning. He gives a speech that sounds like pure bluster for the first few minutes, characterised by his trademark faux inarticulacy. Someone says it is all an act and he’s really the most scripted politician they know.
Then someone in the crowd shouts ‘Bananas!’ and it somehow sparks something in Boris’s brain – he claims that European regulations are ridiculous, including one that insists that bananas cannot be bought in bunches of more than two or three. This triggers an extraordinary series of events.
Several of us begin to email and text that we need to leap on this – he has said something that isn’t true, consistent with all the nonsense he used to churn out when he was a Brussels correspondent for the Daily Telegraph about regulations on balloons and plans to blow up asbestos-filled buildings.
Someone at Stronger In goes out and buys a couple of bunches of four bananas and photographs them next to a campaign sign. We make plans to buy loads of bananas and hand them out at Boris rallies.
I report this to the PM at the start of the 4 p.m. meeting. He has been irritated by Boris attempting to make hay with the leaked Serco letter, coming close to accusing the PM of being corrupt.
When the meeting is over, I call Michael Heseltine, who is supposed to be doing more media for us. We discuss the Serco letter, the banana claims, and the suggestion that the EU has plans to dominate Europe like Hitler.
He gets in a cab to Millbank to do an interview with the BBC.
The former Deputy Prime Minister does not spare Boris in his beating. It is a relentless takedown. A spokesman for Boris issues a statement saying, ‘People want to hear the arguments, not personal attacks.’ This seems ironic given the abuse the PM has taken. I imagine they are feeling very bruised indeed. Laura Kuenssberg declares it a significant slapdown for Boris.
After huge amounts of provocation it is a shot across their bows.
As I leave No. 10 that night, Theresa May is just ahead of me. She gets into a black BMW. I have a feeling that with all this warring and ultra-violence, she could come out of all of this very well.
Heseltine made a big impact on broadcast last night. He’s the splash in The Times, but there’s only a tiny mention of him in papers like the Telegraph in an article headlined: ‘Boris cries “stitch-up” over the PM’s letter to business chief.’ The final para says, ‘Lord Heseltine meanwhile told the BBC that the “strain” of the referendum campaign was “beginning to tell” on Mr Johnson and he had begun to make “preposterous, obscene political remarks”.’
The paper’s leader is, however, a sustained attack on the PM. Whoever wrote it is fulminating that when asked in an interview, DC said Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi (the leader of ISIS/Daesh) would be pleased if we left the EU: ‘That is not just offensive, but politically ill-advised. Roughly half of the electorate, and most of the Conservative party membership, back Brexit. They do so honourably … yet Mr Cameron has suggested they are giving succour to a death cult, guilty of mass murder, rape and enslavement. If the PM faces bitter recriminations from voters and Tory colleagues after the referendum vote, he will only have himself to blame.’
I talk to the editor, who has constantly reassured the PM that he will attempt to keep the paper a fair representation of the debate. He seems to accept that it was an over-reaction to the PM saying al-Baghdadi would be pleased. DC meant no slight to their readers.
Having said all that, I’m convinced a mistake was made in making a big deal of al-Baghdadi. The problem is that it allows them to paint us as being every bit as extreme as they are. More to the point, we should discuss these things before we throw them out there.
I find myself reflecting on how bruising the campaign has become. None of us had really expected to go to war again – at least not to this extent. Ameet and I slump at the round table and talk about this. I tell him I keep being reminded of the line in ‘Brothers in Arms’ by Dire Straits, which feels so appropriate:
Some day you’ll return to your valleys and your farms,
And you’ll no longer burn to be brothers in arms.
Late on we have a meeting of Conservative ‘In’ Cabinet ministers. Sajid Javid appears to have the newfound zeal of a convert, having previously been so reticent about the case for Remain. He does a presentation about why the single market is so important, pointing out that they amount to a huge part of our economy – and if we leave the EU, they will be massively discriminated against, having a huge knock-on effect for ordinary people.
Stephen Gilbert gives a presentation explaining how we are targeting voters – saying that there will be twelve different versions of the electoral address, including one aimed at ultra-Outers, for whom the only argument that works is: Britain’s place in the world will be damaged.
On Thursday, it’s hard to believe, but the lead EU story on the BBC is a Leave campaigner, Steve Baker MP, calling for a truce in the negative campaigning. The only trouble is that it’s based on a ConHome blog by him suggesting all the negativity has come from Remain. I listen to him on the radio as I drive in, and his main point literally begins, ‘They started it …’
I manage to stop myself from getting irritated by it all, listing all the crap they have thrown, including suggesting the PM is corrupt and telling ITV there will be ‘consequences’, before remembering, ‘If you’re whingeing, you’re losing.’ And boy are they whingeing.
Steve Hilton does us the courtesy of emailing to say he’s writing a blog criticising the campaigns for treating the public ‘like simpletons’. It’s classic Steve, claiming (erroneously, many tell me) he was behind successful negative campaigning techniques like ‘Labour’s Tax Bombshell’ – before saying he now regrets that everyone is copying him.
Geordie Greig comes in from the Mail on Sunday. It’s fair to say we haven’t been getting on brilliantly recently. The PM is irritated about their campaign to stop so much money going on international aid. They also showed pictures of his wife Sam in a bikini and did a story about Elwen applying for a private school, when it wasn’t clear if he was in yet and the PM worried it would unsettle his son.
After a robust discussion, we are clear we are on the same side in this campaign and agree to say it’s all water under the bridge. At the end, ‘We have a good sto
ry this weekend. Big names from retail saying prices will rise if we leave.’ He looks interested. We agree they can have it exclusively.
All day there have been concerns about an amendment to the Queen’s Speech, which has been widely briefed by Leave as a deliberate attempt to destabilise the Government programme. It says the House regrets that the Queen’s Speech does not state that the NHS should not be affected by TTIP (a major new deal being negotiated between the EU and America). It is a straightforward attempt to cause maximum disruption. When the wording of the motion is clear, it is decided we can accept it, because we don’t actually think TTIP should affect the NHS. It’s unusual and embarrassing, but a smart play, shooting Leave’s fox.
It’s great that we have done it, but there is a creeping dread inside me: these people will stop at nothing in order to bring us down. And that won’t end if we win.
Chapter 21
We Can’t Be Complacent
THAT WEEKEND THE Mail on Sunday rows in behind us, splashing on our story: ‘HIGH ST BOSSES: PRICES TO SOAR IF WE QUIT EU.’
There is page after page that is pro-Remain.
The Sun on Sunday also gives us a good show, warning of price rises. The only real fly in the ointment is the Sunday Times, which buries a powerful Op-Ed from two former NHS Chief Execs warning about Brexit and writes an editorial declaring itself bored by all the scare stories.
I jump in the car to Asda at Hayes, getting there at 7.45 on Sunday morning. The bright sunshine makes the area look its best. A security guard ushers me in and I find a flagship store where everything is pristine. It looks as if no one has ever bought anything from the shop and every surface is gleaming.
The managers are clearly proud the PM is coming.
I find Harriet Harman, who has agreed to do this visit with us. She is very likeable, but does little to undermine her North London Labour caricature, pointing out all the products that are packed full of sugar.
DC arrives and introduces himself to Harriet. They are straight into the photo op.
After a few shots in the aisles, we disappear upstairs for a roundtable with staff. There’s lots to be encouraged about in their chat – they get the importance of the economy. But they also raise worries about the NHS and the £350 million a week being spent on the EU. It’s pointed out it is not correct, but it’s clear the claim is effective. I imagine legions of people across the country, unable to have a personal chat with the PM explaining why they are being misled.
I get in a car with DC and we are rushed into Central London. As we go through Knightsbridge, there is a pack of tourists, who form into a paparazzi scrum when they spot the convoy.
St James’s Park looks amazing in the lemon sun. I wonder if anyone sensible is going to be watching the PM on Peston on a day like today.
I take the PM through all the difficult questions – he sounds remarkably confident, and I’m soon into getting him to check the Op-Ed for tomorrow’s Telegraph, which uses the Treasury language to warn of ‘a DIY recession’. I keep trying to draw him to the positive side of things, ‘There’s nothing more positive than ensuring our economy is thriving in the biggest market in the world, with all the opportunities that come from that.’ I also want him to nail Turkey – there’s no prospect of them joining, but what we do know is there would be an economic downturn if we left.
We arrive at the South Bank. The team is grateful that we are doing this. While the PM is in make-up, I go into the studio to see Robert Peston preparing, and then DC and I watch Marr in the green room.
Penny Mordaunt, the Minister of State for the Armed Forces, comes on. She looks nervous. There’s a key moment when she is asked about Turkey joining the EU. Marr reminds her the Government has a veto. She says that isn’t the case. I am on it in a flash – she is simply wrong. I use the WhatsApp group to make sure we are winding up social media.
The PM says the programme should hammer her on it. I text the editor, Rob Burley – she is plain wrong. Ninety seconds later, Marr returns to it and again she insists we don’t have a veto and tries to say we would just let it all happen. This is very uncomfortable. You rarely catch someone saying something so definitely wrong. We begin to plot what DC will say. If their judgement is so faulty on something like this, it calls into question the whole basis of their arguments.
Peston walks in and starts to chat. He seems most interested in the fact the PM won’t be wearing a tie. The PM tells him his navy suit and navy shirt combo make him look like he’s heading out for a dinner party.
We inform him of what Mordaunt has just said and he can scarcely believe it. Wags on social media are writing things like, ‘That sound you can hear is Penny M clearing her desk after a disastrous performance.’
Next up on Marr is Simon Stevens, the Chief Executive of the NHS. He is a bit hesitant, but he delivers the key point: if the Governor of the Bank of England is worried the economy will go into a ‘tailspin’, the NHS needs to worry. He says when the economy sneezes, the NHS catches a cold.
Finally he warns Penny Mordaunt she is wrong on the NHS, too – if we leave the EU, the big worry is the impact on lots of foreign-born staff, who may just up sticks and leave, and that will have an impact on her local hospital. Penny’s bad morning is about to get worse.
DC does not spare her as he relaxes in his seat. He delivers the slap down perfectly. No mercy. He also sounds good on the NHS and prices.
He comes out knowing he has done well.
He jumps in his car back to Dean – and I walk across the river and hold a Stronger In call, making sure we can capitalise on prices, the NHS and Turkey.
There are howls of protest on Twitter about the soft ride DC was given. They wanted him asked why he supported their accession in 2010 – and would he use the veto.
It’s not yet 11 a.m. when I hang up the call in my Uber car home. I think how exhausted I am in my bones, in my brain. There’s no rest to be had, though. Endless people want endless conversations.
The BBC is classically reporting the Turkey spat as ‘on the one hand, on the other’. I have to call numerous times to say, why won’t you just state that Mordaunt is wrong on a straightforward matter of fact? Look at Article 49, which states we have a veto. It’s there in black and white.
After hours of pushing, I get them in a position where by the evening news they are saying it. So are ITV. The problem for us is they have a clip from DC in 2010 talking about wanting a road ‘paved from Brussels to Ankara’. Fortunately there is a Boris quote from 2006 calling for it to happen … but then there’s also a quote from the EU saying accession talks have been ‘re-energised’.
I stand and watch this with George in the private office outside the PM’s study. He looks at both BBC packages and says, ‘This is so confusing – what hope do viewers have?’ We are caught in the grey world of compromise that marks out so much diplomacy. Our diplomatic service wants to dangle the carrot of Turkey joining the EU to encourage them to adopt more Western ways. The reality is, it cannot and will not happen. We do have a veto. We’d almost certainly use it – and many other countries, like France, would definitely use theirs. But the nuance of the diplomatic position allows Leave to create mischief.
The PM comes in around 8.10 p.m.
The first topic of conversation is that Steve Hilton has added a chapter to his book for the paperback edition. He claims that the UK is ‘literally ungovernable’, because of the weight of regulation from Brussels – and he saw this first hand in No. 10.
We discuss if we should hit back hard, before realising it will simply add fuel to the fire.
The bulk of the meeting is taken up with what we are going to say on Turkey. The options are to stay as we are and face pain – or move and look like we’re slipping around under pressure, though there’s a hope we can shut it down.
Occasionally the pressure in politics rises to absurd levels – and what would normally be ludicrous or extreme statements become run-of-the mill.
IDS does a media
round this morning and is pressed about Boris continuing to bang on about the regulation of bananas, his response is, ‘I don’t know, because I don’t eat bananas.’
In a separate story about the potential of Ed Miliband joining the shadow cabinet, an anonymous Labour MP is quoted as saying, ‘Ed Miliband shouldn’t be in the shadow cabinet, he should be in jail for what he did to the Labour party.’ The Westminster village is febrile.
The Turkey argument continues. DC is tempted to say there should be a referendum if there were any prospect of them joining (which there isn’t). I ask Andrew Cooper what he thinks, concluding, ‘My view, for what it’s worth, is that it is a very, very bad idea.’
He makes the points:
People are likely to be very cynical about the sudden offer of a referendum.
It will serve only to raise the salience of Turkey – opening a renewed debate.
We’d be expected to spell out the precedent we’d be setting and its consequences.
I share this with DC. He sees the points.
We dive into the debate prep deciding to focus on immigration. It’s instructive – all our arguments sound reasonable, but glib. It’s a classic case of dealing with what’s partly an emotional issue by using only reason – it doesn’t work.
We talk about showing more emotional intelligence on it. We need people to know they have been heard. I also think we need to call Farage into question: ‘He’s not levelling with you.’
As we talk, I get a call from Peter Dominiczak at the Telegraph. He’s heard there’s a possible resignation of a junior minister over another Treasury document. I haven’t heard anything – it sounds wrong. The PM and Chancellor hit the prospect of a recession very hard at an event this morning – the response has been rage from Leave, but it’s hard for them when people like the unimpeachable Paul Johnson at the Institute for Fiscal Studies say the assumptions behind our document are fair.
Peter also points out that they are working through the latest Lynton Crosby research for tomorrow’s paper. It shows a thirteen per cent lead for Remain among decided voters. His commentary is apparently a precision strike on the Leave campaign for failing to stick to a coherent message.
