by Craig Oliver
I point out that a simple rebuttal from us to all of this does not suffice – it’s automatically discounted, with Leave supporters taking a similar position to Mandy Rice-Davies on claims by Lord Astor that he had never met her. To paraphrase her, ‘We would, wouldn’t we.’ The BBC needs to step up and spell things out. A campaign that is predicated on lies cannot be treated in the same way as one that isn’t.
That night, UKIP’s Diane James is asked if people will need visas to visit the EU if we leave. She makes what should be the fatal error of saying, ‘We just don’t know.’ All of us spot it and I’m clear we need to weave it into the fabric of our messaging going forward – these guys really haven’t got a clue. Leaving really is ‘a leap in the dark’.
Friday’s papers are the predictable horror show on immigration. DC is mocked up, sticking his fingers in his ears and saying ‘la la la’ in front of a map of Britain packed to its borders with people.
After a series of calls with the media team, I join a 7.30 a.m. cross-party call chaired by Will Straw. It’s designed to catch up with what the In campaigns for the various political parties are doing that day. I want to get across a blunt message: this matters. We failed on immigration yesterday, hardly anyone stuck to our line that we accept it’s a problem, but Leave’s solution of trashing the economy is no way to deal with it.
I’m beginning to realise – the strength of our campaign that we celebrate (a broad coalition taking in most of the Government, Labour, the Lib Dems, the Greens and the TUC), is also a profound weakness. We can’t exercise the fingertip control that we had over messaging in the general election.
Some of the people on the line sound like they are spewing out the equivalent of Ukrainian tractor production results in the Soviet Union – telling us how many places they’ve been and how positive the reaction is. For the sake of diplomacy and unity, we need to nod along.
I call Ruth Davidson, who sounds like she’s in bed. Why wouldn’t she be? It’s still early by any normal standards. I say we spotted how well she did in the Scottish debates and we need her to do the massive Wembley arena debate at the end of the campaign. She’s immediately up for it. When I tell her Angela Eagle is also being considered for the team, she gets straight to the point, ‘Angela and I are very similar. Are you sure you want two shovel-faced lesbians?’
Later she says I responded like an embarrassed Hugh Grant, muttering and bumbling. There are worse things to be compared to, but I recall laughing out loud and saying, ‘I’m glad you said that. But the Labour party just aren’t budging on it.’ She accepts this and has a few extra tips. In the Hydro debate in Scotland, she says the noise was so loud, the participants literally couldn’t hear what the other side was saying. The Wembley audience is to be six thousand – it’s a worry.
Will Straw pulls me to one side and says, ‘I’ve got some news. Sadiq Khan, the new London Mayor, is prepared to be in our final debate.’ It means going against the wishes of the Labour leadership, but it suits us, allowing a balanced team for the final debate. Lucy Thomas, who has been pushing for Sadiq, points out the only fear is that the debate will be on the longest day of the year during Ramadan, and he will have been fasting all day long.
Will has less good news with the results on the polling of Labour voters. The analysis he shows me is shocking:
Labour voters are deeply confused and uncertain about the party’s position on the referendum and the position of Jeremy Corbyn.
Only 47% of voters believe that Labour party politicians are ‘mostly in favour’ of Remain.
Only 11% of voters say they have noticed Jeremy Corbyn making a ‘persuasive argument’ about the referendum over the past week.
In focus groups in London, Brighton and Ipswich over the past two weeks, voters were uniformly uncertain about whether Labour itself was mostly for Remain. They tend to say one of two things about Jeremy Corbyn: either they don’t know what his position is, or he’s for Remain but that ‘his heart isn’t in it.’
Undecided working class women in Liverpool mostly assumed the Labour party was for leaving the EU.
The conclusion is stark and obvious. We desperately need Jeremy Corbyn and/or other Labour heavy hitters to get onto evening broadcast news. Other coverage is also needed, but without getting him on evening news broadcasts, cutting through to voters is almost impossible.
In a normal campaign you would take this, work up a plan and action it. This isn’t a normal campaign, and we need to cajole, nudge and encourage a Labour leadership that is at best in no mood to be lectured, and at worst actively wishes us harm.
By Saturday 28 May, I worry we are now in serious trouble.
It’s not that I think we are going to lose, it’s more we may not be able to move forward if we win.
I get a call from James McGrory, who says Gove and Boris have written an open letter to the PM criticising him for clinging to his pledge to cut net migration to the tens of thousands. They say he’s ‘corroding public trust’.
They also warn that the impact of free movement will increase hospital waiting lists and class sizes unless we get out of the EU.
It feels like an act of war.
What makes us flinch is that it’s intensely personal. They are effectively accusing the PM of a lack of integrity. It’s the kind of thing we would hesitate to say about a leader of the opposition – let alone someone in our own party. Can the people behind this be serious about reconciling when this is done – or are they trying to make it impossible whatever the outcome?
It’s also clearly a strategic decision to keep immigration front and centre by creating the biggest blue-on-blue assault of the campaign so far.
After a long day of calls and meetings, I’m in my car with my eldest daughter and three of her friends, having picked them up from Thorpe Park. They are all understanding and keep quiet, part fascinated, part bemused as Switch put me on to a conference call with DC, Graeme and a couple of others. Before the PM comes on, some are angry that Gove is part of a Government that has this as its policy, and Boris stood on it as part of the Conservative manifesto, and yet they are attacking it. I understand their position, but also think it’s like calling men out for visiting a brothel by saying they are supposed to be Christians.
DC is clear from the off, ‘Just ignore it.’ I understand his sentiment, but a simple ‘No comment’ isn’t going to cut it. Graeme says our line to take should be, ‘destroying our economy by leaving the single market is no solution.’ He’s on the right tracks.
After a bit of discussion, I get to: ‘This is a transparent attempt to distract from the fact that the overwhelming majority of economists and businesses believe leaving the single market would be disastrous for jobs, prices and opportunities for people.’
I hang up and make the call. The more I think about it, the more the Boris/Gove letter seems motivated by an intention to kill.
Later I send DC the piece Tony Blair has written for the Sunday Times, saying it is good. He agrees, before going on to say that the Gove/Johnson stuff tomorrow is ‘depressing beyond belief’ and ‘deeply maddening’. We both believe it suits Leave to have a Tory war. It’s clear that spats like this make Labour, Lib Dem and Green supporters think it’s about Conservative infighting – and turnout will be depressed.
I wonder if we have been victims of our own success. No serious economist thinks leaving won’t harm us. Leave is reduced to trashing experts and focusing entirely on immigration – something they claimed they’d never do in all their speeches and articles before and in the early stages of the campaign. Have we somehow forced them onto a winning strategy?
Meanwhile, we are sucking up endless punishment, unwilling to hit back in any serious way. We may cross the finish line first – only to find that we are torn apart. Something in my bones tells me no good will come of this. Then there’s the possibility we might actually lose this thing.
How many people are confused and irritated by the noise and being left thinking, ‘W
hat the hell?’ as they flick two fingers at the so-called ‘political class’?
Chapter 23
Attempted Coup
THERE’S NO WAY round it – the papers on Sunday 29 May are ugly.
The combination of the Gove/Boris immigration letter and Priti Patel saying rich people don’t understand the pressures of immigration (she might as well have said, ‘I’m talking to you, Cameron and Osborne,’) feel nasty and brutal.
The BBC doesn’t even bother to cover the Observer splash, about ninety per cent of economists saying we’ll be harmed if we leave the EU, though we are pushing it for all it is worth on social media.
It’s a miserable experience.
All of us have feared that Tony Blair will be toxic on Marr. In fact he handles himself like a true professional, avoiding all the elephant traps. But that’s the problem – he got through it unscathed, when we should be having people putting runs on the board. The lead story on the BBC is still Boris, Gove and Patel attacking the PM.
News comes through that this evening’s meeting will be held at the PM’s constituency home. It means a ninety-minute drive there and back. He says he will feed us. I try to spend some time with my kids, while tweaking some words for him to look at on the economy and immigration.
Come 5 p.m., I’m driving to the PM’s house. The roads are clear and the sun is shining.
His home is in rural Oxfordshire – an idyllic part of the world. I park and walk round the back, where Kate Fall and he are already surveying the garden. The others are stuck in traffic and won’t be here for half an hour.
Someone called Mary, whom DC describes as a long-term family friend, is preparing dinner and offers to make me a cup of tea. DC shows me a barbecue, which looks like an oil barrel that has been cut in half, with a spit above it. The spit is nearly an inch of metal and two chickens are impaled on it.
We go through to the lounge and I sit in the precise place I was just over a year ago, as we watched the general election results programme go out. ‘Yes,’ says DC, ‘we only all gather here in times of complete emergency.’
He says, ‘People keep saying they think it will be all right, but I’m very worried.’
The rest of the team arrive. We start by discussing an event where he’ll share a platform with Sadiq Khan tomorrow, but all anyone wants to talk about is the Gove/Boris letter. DC seems remarkably clear-headed about it. ‘It’s the right tactic for them: try to bate us into a blue-on-blue spat, which makes everyone think it’s about the Conservative party – and that depresses turnout.’
That, or they want to kill us. Part of me wants to hear him calling them out as despicable before he comes to this conclusion. But he doesn’t.
He then runs through all the options we could take in response:
be Zen and refuse to rise (as we are now).
fight back.
call out their strategy. Say we know what they are up to – and we won’t fall for it.
He chalks off number two – it just makes things worse. It reminds me of the saying, ‘Don’t wrestle a pig. The pig likes it and you get covered in shit.’
He also thinks number three doesn’t work – because it’s too clever. Which takes us back to number one. The next time they say anything, we call it ‘increasingly desperate’ and move on.
We turn to polling. Our latest tracker puts us ahead: 53–47. It also finds that fewer people now think Labour politicians are associated with Remain.
DC wants to know what Jim Messina has to say. Stephen Gilbert tells him he thinks it’s tight.
We move on to posters – and specifically if we are going to target Boris. As people talk, a penny drops for me: what is the point of having a go at him? Where does it get us? It doesn’t further our message and it’s just a sub-category of the blue-on-blue argument. DC agrees, ‘We should stop going on about posters attacking Boris. It’s a trap.’
We head outside for some food. Mary attacks the chickens with her hands and a pair of scissors, lamenting the lack of a sharp knife.
It is still warm enough – and the heat from the barbecue helps.
At quarter past nine, dessert is brought out. DC leans back in his seat. I’m clear if I don’t get home now, I’ll be knackered. He offers me an espresso to wake me up.
Ameet and Liz get in the car back to London with me. I drive them to Hammersmith. It’s dark and we are all tired. The discussion is about what happens after the referendum. I say my threshold for eating crap is low and I don’t think we should do contortions to hold onto power, with crazy people holding guns to our heads. If he goes rather than face that, I believe history will look kindly upon him.
We listen to the Radio 4 news and The Westminster Hour. More blue-on-blue Conservative ultra-violence, making us feel even more queasy. Ameet asks how many Conservative MPs DC would need in a leadership election for him to survive. He thinks 240 out of 330. I think it would need to be higher.
Needless to say this is worrying talk, but I think we need to prepare. Let’s not humiliate ourselves. Better to be dignified.
We’ve got to win the bloody thing first, though.
Any doubt that the Leave campaign is setting itself up as an alternative Government with alternative policies is dispelled a day later. Leave is briefing they would stop the EU imposing VAT on fuel bills – saving the average consumer £60 a year. We throw out a late-night rebuttal, but wake up the next morning to find it prominent on the BBC news.
There are too many people on the morning media call at 6.15 and I have to tell them to be quiet and speak one at a time.
At first people talk about putting something out in a week, challenging them on all their ridiculous spending claims. It’s a hopeless proposal. We need something now. It’s suggested Joe Carberry work up a ‘dossier’ pointing out all their ridiculous spending commitments. But he needs to do it right away.
I then call Norman Smith to say the Leave proposal is another example of ‘fantasy economics’ and that they’ve spent double, triple, then quadruple the notional £10 billion they’d get back if we left the EU. Of course, they’re forgetting that money wouldn’t exist, because our economy would have shrunk.
The 7 a.m. news has our sharper line. I imagine steam is coming out of Joe Carberry’s ears as he works up a document showing all of their absurd spending commitments.
While this is all happening, I am standing in my bathroom in front of a bowl of water, hoping to shave before I take a shower. Calls keep coming and I can’t start. I wonder if I am ever going to get out of this room – and get into the campaign.
Ed, then George, then the PM … then another conference call … the pressure is rising. I feel it – and I take a mindful breath.
Joe’s document arrives at 7.37 a.m. It suggests they have made £111 billion of spending commitments. It’s in good shape, but I take three minutes to add headlines and quotes about ‘fantasy economics’. I’ve warned Norman Smith to stand by. I fire it back to Joe – and it’s out by 7.47 a.m.
The story at the top of the 8 a.m. – most listened to – BBC bulletins is now that the Leave campaign has been attacked for fantasy economics and making outrageous, incredible spending commitments. It feels like a win.
So why do I feel so disconcerted? A pattern is emerging. To deny it would be foolish. This is no longer simply an issue of whether we should remain in or leave the EU. We are at another level. Somewhere we never imagined. The Leave campaign is setting itself up as an alternative Government – complete with their own policies to be enacted should Cameron and Osborne lose and be deposed.
The words ‘attempted coup’ spring to mind. They seem strange on my lips as I later test them out on other people at No. 10 and ask if I am over-reacting. They don’t think it’s ridiculous at all. They have had the same thoughts – key figures in Leave advertising themselves as an alternative Government.
The polls are a cause for concern. Ryan Coetzee keeps delivering notes saying we are being badly hit by their claim that £35
0 million a week will go back into the NHS if we leave the EU – despite it being preposterous. He believes we are likely to see a downturn in our numbers. I’m working on my emails when our daily tracker comes in. It puts us on 55 and them on 45. ‘Get in!’ I say, despite secretly knowing this is all crap. It’s a weird psychological boost – even though we know the polls can’t be trusted.
That boost goes when ICM issues separate phone and online polls with the same answer. The Leave campaign is ahead 52–48.
When I look into the detail it’s totally confusing, using a series of methods to weight the data, because they don’t have faith in the initial sample. The pollster then comes out to explain his methodology, concluding that, despite the result, in the end he thinks Remain will win. I wonder what on earth the point of all this is, when the people behind it come across as so muddled. I suppose at least it spooks people with the prospect we really could leave.
Jim Messina comes in to discuss where we’re at. Some paper bags full of Pret a Manger sandwiches, fruit, crisps and Diet Coke are dumped on the table.
He warns we’ve gone from plus six to tied in the polls, saying, ‘It was the same the month before the election. But we made the right choices, kicked ass and won.’ He warns, ‘Our models get ugly if we don’t do enough to boost turnout.’
After endless meetings, I get on the Tube back to No. 10. The 4 p.m. is just starting when I am asked to take a call from Steffen Seibert, one of Angela Merkel’s closest aides. There’s no doubt who holds the cards in this situation. Steffen tells me what she’s going to say about hoping the UK will remain in the EU. She wants to do it in German at a press conference on Thursday. He also wants to do it with Reuters. I keep trying to intervene, but it’s a bit like standing on a road trying to talk to the driver of a slowly moving juggernaut.
