by Tom Clancy
“I guess they weren’t kidding,” the Chesapeake Bay pilot observed. He’d boarded the Courier at the Virginia Capes and had caught the TV news on the pilot ship that anchored there. He shook his head and made his way to the accommodation ladder. He’d let the shipping agent give the word to the Master.
The shipping agent did just that, climbing up the ladder, then to the bridge. The storage lot had room for about two hundred additional cars, certainly not more than that, and as yet he had no instructions from the line’s management on what to tell the captain to do. Ordinarily the ship would be in port for no more than twenty-four hours, the time required to unload the cars, refuel and revictual the ship for her return journey most of the way across the world, where the same routine would be followed in reverse, this time loading cars into the empty ship for yet another voyage to America. The ships of this fleet were on a boring but remorseless schedule whose dates were as fixed as the stars of the night sky.
“What do you mean?” the Master asked.
“Every car has to be safety inspected.” The shipping agent waved toward the terminal. “See for yourself.”
The Master did just that, lifting his Nikon binoculars to see agents from the Bureau of Customs, six of them, using a hydraulic jack to lift up a new car so that one of their number could crawl under it for some reason or other while others made notations on various official forms on their clipboards. Certainly they didn’t seem to be in much of a hurry. Through the glasses he could see their bodies rock back and forth in what had to be mirth, instead of working as diligently as government employees ought. That was the reason he didn’t make the connection with the odd instances on which he’d seen Japanese customs inspectors doing similar but much more stringent inspections of American, German, or Swedish cars on the docks of his home port of Yokohama.
“But we could be here for days!” the Master blurted out.
“Maybe a week,” the agent said optimistically.
“But there’s only space for one ship here! Nissan Voyager is due here in seventy hours.”
“I can’t help that.”
“But my schedule—” There was genuine horror in the Master’s voice.
“I can’t help that either,” the shipping agent observed patiently to a man whose predictable world had just disintegrated.
“How can we help?” Seiji Nagumo asked.
“What do you mean?” the Commerce Department official replied.
“This terrible incident.” And Nagumo was genuinely horrified. Japan’s historical construction of wood-and-paper had long since been replaced by more substantial buildings, but its legacy was a deep cultural dread of fire. A citizen who allowed a fire to start on his property and then to spread to the property of another still faced criminal sanctions, not mere civil liability. He felt a very real sense of shame that a product manufactured in his country had caused such a horrid end. “I have not yet had an official communique from my government, but I tell you for myself, this is terrible beyond words. I assure you that we will launch our own investigation.”
“It’s a little late for that, Seiji. As you will recall, we discussed this very issue—”
“Yes, that is true, I admit it, but you must understand that even if we had reached an agreement, the materials in question would still have been in the pipeline—it would not have made a difference to these people.”
It was an altogether pleasant moment for the American trade-negotiator. The deaths in Tennessee, well, that was too bad, but he’d been putting up with this bastard’s arrogance for three years now, and the current situation, for all its tragedy, was a sweet one.
“Seiji-san, as I said, it’s a little late for that. I suppose we will be happy to have some degree of cooperation from your people, but we have our own job to do. After all, I’m sure you’ll understand that the duty to protect the lives and safety of American citizens is properly the job of the American government. Clearly we have been remiss in that duty, and we must make up for our own unfortunate failings.”
“What we can do, Robert, is to subsidize the operation. I have been told that our auto manufacturers will themselves hire safety inspectors to clear the vehicles in your ports, and—”
“Seiji, you know that’s unacceptable. We can’t have government functions carried out by industry representatives.” That wasn’t true, and the bureaucrat knew it. It happened all the time.
“In the interest of maintaining our friendly trade relationship, we offer to undertake any unusual expense incurred by your government. We—” Nagumo was stopped by a raised hand.
“Seiji, I have to tell you to stop there. Please—you must understand that what you propose could well be seen as an inducement to corruption under our government-ethics laws.” The conversation stopped cold for several seconds.
“Look, Seiji, when the new statute is passed, this will settle out rapidly.” And that wouldn’t take long. A flood of mail and telegrams from rapidly organized “grass-roots” groups—the United Auto Workers, for one, smelling blood in the water as sharply as any shark—had directed every one of its members to dial up Western Union for precisely that purpose. The Trent Bill was already first in line for hearings on the Hill, and insiders gave the new statute two weeks before it appeared on the President’s desk for signature.
“But Trent’s bill—”
The Commerce Department official leaned forward on his desk. “Seiji, what’s the problem? The Trent Bill will allow the President, with the advice of lawyers here at Commerce, to duplicate your own trade laws. In other words, what we will do is to mirror-image your own laws over here. Now, how can it possibly be unfair for America to use your own, fair, trade laws on your products the same way that you use them on ours?”
Nagumo hadn’t quite got it until that moment. “But you don’t understand, Our laws are designed to fit our culture. Yours is different, and—”
“Yes, Seiji, I know. Your laws are designed to protect your industries against unfair competition. What we will soon be doing is the same thing. Now, that’s the bad news. The good news is that whenever you open markets to us, we will automatically do the same for you. The bad news, Seiji, is that we will apply your own law to your own products, and then, my friend, we will see how fair your laws are, by your own standards. Why are you upset? You’ve been telling me for years how your laws are not a real boundary at all, that it’s the fault of American industry that we can’t trade with Japan as effectively as you trade with us.” He leaned back and smiled. “Okay, now we’ll see how accurate your observations were. You’re not telling me now that you ... misled me on things, are you?”
Nagumo would have thought My God, had he been a Christian, but his religion was animistic, and his internal reactions were different, though of exactly the same significance. He’d just been called a liar, and the worst part was that the accusation was ... true.
The Trent Bill, now officially called the Trade Reform Act, was explained to America that very evening, now that the talking heads had used the time to analyze it. Its philosophical simplicity was elegant. Administration spokesmen, and Trent himself on “MacNeil/Lehrer,” explained that the law established a small committee of lawyers and technical-trade experts from the Commerce Department, assisted by international-law authorities from the Department of Justice, who would be empowered to analyze foreign trade laws, to draft American trade regulations that matched their provisions as exactly as possible, and then to recommend them to the Secretary of Commerce, who would advise the President. The President in turn had the authority to activate those regulations by executive order. The order could be voided by a simple majority of both houses of Congress, whose authority on such matters was set in the Constitution—that provision would avoid legal challenge on the grounds of separation of powers. The Trade Reform Act further had a “sunset” provision. In four years from enactment, it would automatically cease to exist unless reenacted by Congress and reapproved by the sitting President—that provision made th
e TRA appear to be a temporary provision whose sole objective was to establish free international trade once and for all. It was manifestly a lie, but a plausible one, even for those who knew it.
“Now what could be more fair than that?” Trent asked rhetorically on PBS. “All we’re doing is to duplicate the laws of other countries. If their laws are fair for American business, then those same laws must also be fair for the industries of other countries. Our Japanese friends”—he smiled—“have been telling us for years that their laws are not discriminatory. Fine. We will use their laws as fairly as they do.”
The entertaining part for Trent was in watching the man on the other side of the table squirm. The former Assistant Secretary of State, now earning over a million dollars a year as senior lobbyist for Sony and Mitsubishi, just sat there, his mind racing for something to say that would make sense, and Trent could see it in his face. He didn’t have a thing.
“This could be the start of a real trade war—” he began, only to be cut off at the ankles.
“Look, Sam, the Geneva Convention didn’t cause any wars, did it? It simply applied the same rules of conduct to all sides in a conflict. If you’re saying that the use of Japanese regulations in American ports will cause a war, then there already is a war and you’ve been working for the other side, haven’t you?” His rapid-fire retort was met with five seconds of very awkward silence. There just wasn’t an answer to that question.
“Whoa!” Ryan observed, sitting in the family room of his house, at a decent hour for once.
“He’s got real killer instinct,” Cathy observed, looking up from some medical notes.
“He does,” her husband agreed. “Talk about fast. I just got briefed in on this the other day.”
“Well, I think they’re right. Don’t you?” his wife asked.
“I think it’s going a little fast.” Jack paused. “How good are their docs?”
“Japanese doctors? Not very, by our standards.”
“Really?” The Japanese public-health system had been held up for emulation. Everything over there was “free,” after all. “How come?”
“They salute too much,” Cathy replied, her head back down in her notes. “The professor’s always right, that sort of thing. The young ones never learn to do it on their own, and by the time they’re old enough to become professors themselves, for the most part they forget how.”
“How often are you wrong, O Associate Professor of Ophthalmic Surgery, ma’am?” Jack chuckled.
“Practically never,” Cathy replied, looking up, “but I never tell my residents to stop asking why, either. We have three Japanese fellows at Wilmer now. Good clinicians, good technical docs, but not very flexible. I guess it’s a cultural thing. We’re trying to train them out of it. It’s not easy.”
“The boss is always right ...”
“Not always, he isn’t.” Cathy made a notation for a medication change.
Ryan’s head turned, wondering if he’d just learned something important. “How good are they in developing new treatments?”
“Jack, why do you think they come here to train? Why do you suppose we have so many in the university up on Charles Street? Why do you suppose so many of them stay here?”
It was nine in the morning in Tokyo, and a satellite feed brought the American evening news shows into executive offices all over the city. Skilled translators were rendering the conversation into their native tongue. VCRs were making a permanent record for a more thorough analysis later, but what the executives heard was clear enough.
Kozo Matsuda trembled at his desk. He kept his hands in his lap and out of view so that the others in his office could not see them shake. What he heard in two languages—his English was excellent—was bad enough. What he saw was worse. His corporation was already losing money due to ... irregularities in the world market. Fully a third of his company’s products went to the United States, and if that segment of his business were in any way interrupted ...
The interview was followedby a “focus segment” that showed Nissan Courier, still tied up in Baltimore, with her sister ship, Nissan Voyager, swinging at anchor in the Chesapeake Bay. Yet another car carrier had just cleared the Virginia Capes, and the first of the trio was not even halfway unloaded yet. The only reason they’d shown those particular ships was Baltimore’s convenient proximity to Washington. The same was happening in the Port of Los Angeles, Seattle, and Jacksonville. As though the cars were being used to transport drugs, Matsuda thought. Part of his mind was outraged, but more of it was approaching panic. If the Americans were serious, then ...
No, they couldn’t be.
“But what about the possibility of a trade war?” Jim Lehrer asked that Trent person.
“Jim, I’ve been saying for years that we’ve been in a trade war with Japan for a generation. What we’ve just done is to level the playing field for everyone.”
“But if this situation goes further, won’t American interests be hurt?”
“Jim, what are those interests? Are American business interests worth burning up little children?” Trent shot back at once.
Matsuda cringed when he heard that. The image was just too striking for a man whose earliest childhood memory was of the early morning of March 10, 1945. Not even three years old, his mother carrying him from his house looking back and seeing the towering flames caused by Curtis LeMay’s 21st Bomber Command. For years he’d awakened screaming in the night, and for all his adult life he’d been a committed pacifist. He’d studied history, learned how and why the war had begun, how America had pushed his antecedents into a corner from which there had been only a single escape—and that a false one. Perhaps Yamata was right, he thought, perhaps the entire affair had been of America’s making. First, force Japan into a war, then crush them in an effort to forestall the natural ascendancy of a nation destined to challenge American power. For all that, he had never been able to understand how the zaibatsu of the time, members of the Black Dragon Society, had not been able to find a clever way out, for wasn’t war just too dreadful an option? Wasn’t peace, however humiliating, to be preferred to the awful destruction that came with war?
It was different now. Now he was one of them, and now he saw what lay in the abyss of not going to war. Were they so wrong then, he asked himself, no longer hearing the TV or his translator. They’d sought real economic stability for their country: the Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere.
The history books of his youth had called it all a lie, but was it?
For his country’s economy to function, it needed resources, raw materials, but Japan had virtually none except coal, and that polluted the air. Japan needed iron, bauxite, petroleum, needed almost everything to be shipped in, in order to be transformed into finished goods that could be shipped out. They needed cash to pay for the raw materials, and that cash came from the buyers of the finished products. If America, his country’s largest and most important trading partner, suddenly stopped trading, that cash flow would stop. Almost sixty billion dollars.
There would be various adjustments, of course. Today on the international money markets, the yen would plummet against the dollar and every other hard currency in the world. That would make Japanese products less expensive everywhere—
But Europe would follow suit. He was sure of that. Trade regulations already stiffer than the Americans’ would become tougher still, and that trading surplus would also decline, and at the same time the value of the yen would fall all the more. It would take more cash to buy the resources without which his country would enter total collapse. Like falling from a precipice, the downward acceleration would merely grow faster and faster, and the only consolation of the moment was that he would not be there to see the end of it, for long before that happened, this office would no longer be his. He’d be disgraced, with all the rest of his colleagues. Some would choose death, perhaps, but not so many. That was something for TV now, the ancient traditions that had grown from a culture rich in pride but poor
in everything else. Life was too comfortable to give it up so easily—or was it? What lay ten years in his country’s future? A return to poverty... or ... something else?
The decision would partly be his, Matsuda told himself, because the government of his country was really an extension of the collective will of himself and his peers. He looked down at the shaking hands in his lap. He thanked his two employees, and sent them on their way with a gracious nod before he was able to lift his hands to the surface of his desk and reach for a telephone.
Clark thought of it as a “forever flight,” and even though KAL had upgraded them to first-class, it really hadn’t helped much; not even the charming Korean flight attendants in lovely traditional dress could make the process much better than it was. He’d seen two of the three movies—on other flights—and the third wasn’t all that interesting. The sky-news radio channel had held his interest for the forty minutes required to update him on the happenings of the world, but after that it became repetitive, and his memory was too finely trained to need that. The KAL magazine was only good for thirty minutes—even that was a stretch—and he was current on the American news journals. What remained was crushing boredom. At least Ding had his course material to divert him. He was currently reading through the Masseys’ classic Dreadnought, about how international relations had broken down a century earlier because the various European nations—more properly their leaders—had failed to make the leap of imagination required to keep the peace. Clark remembered having read it soon after publication.
