“Hundreds of years?” asked Athena with a shake of her head. “That is nothing. The point is that their fate was sealed. When your ‘more advanced’ civilizations came to the island, they saved the islanders by providing a means of transportation off the island and probably bringing in food and other resources to the island. Think of the Earth as an island. No one is going to come to rescue you. The distances and time scales prevent this possibility. Think again of your Easter Island. What would have happened eventually to the community on the island?”
“They would have eventually all died,” Rotham agreed reluctantly. “From what, we couldn’t know, but if you consider an open-ended time scale as Athena is suggesting, their being trapped on the island would have doomed them in any number of ways. A local disease, a castaway Westerner who washes up and has measles, a tidal wave submerging the island, too much genetic inbreeding . . . hell, an asteroid strike that obliterates the island but not all of the Earth.”
“But some of these events are so rare as to be irrelevant,” said Harper.
“Not irrelevant if the only humans in existence live on that island,” said Athena.
“Something that will probably not occur for a million years is effectively irrelevant,” persisted Harper.
Chesterton nodded, but only as if he understood Harper’s point, not that he agreed.
“Athena,” said Chesterton, “what about humans? If you have such records of other civilizations, you must have some estimate of when humans will reach the inflection point you predict.”
“Time scales are different for each sentient species, and critical points can temporally differ by orders of magnitude. Your species is projecting along a common developmental line. Once sentience develops, it feeds back on itself, and the complexity of the society accelerates. In early stages, the development can appear linear, but this is only an illusion. It is simply the early phase of a nonlinear advance. It’s the exponential phase of the curve that is the problem. The faster the developmental curve, the less time remaining to the inflection point—the point of no return. What complicates making predictions are the inherent characteristics of the species. If the point of no return is too far off, a species might do nothing, either because its members assume they can always change their minds later or because their immediate needs take precedence over distant problems. On the other hand, a short timeline can either galvanize a species into action or lead to passive acceptance of a perceived inevitable fate.”
“That’s all interesting, Athena, but let me repeat. You must have some estimate of where humans fall in this,” said Chesterton.
“While you are within the normal range of developmental rates, you are in the upper portions of that range. Not the fastest development I have records of, but very fast. Also, the ability to survive a decline can involve many factors that can be in unique combinations for a specific species and situation. Nevertheless, lest you become impatient with me, I believe humans are already coming up to danger points for some factors. I caution that my knowledge of human civilization is limited to what you have made available to Simeon and from my limited number of contacts with humans. If I had more information and more experience with humans, my projections would be expected to become more informative. To come to the point and based on very incomplete information, my crude estimate is that humans need to take significant steps in the next ten years to avoid having to initiate drastic actions that would avert a hopeless situation.”
“Athena,” said Huxler, who then paused for a moment. “You say you have detailed recordings of three other species and records of the existence of many more that are now extinct. But what about the three you have records for? What happened with them? Did you help them avoid going extinct?”
“In all three cases, I watched them until the last individual died.”
The room’s silence was oppressive as if the air had thickened, weighing on people’s bodies and threatening to muffle any word they uttered.
It was Sinclair who unfroze first. “Maybe we should take another break.”
The group moved to a meeting room in Level 3, for the moment minus all Site 23 staff. After they sat, Harper spoke first.
“All right, I confess I didn’t really believe the story I was hearing, and I’m still not 100 percent convinced, but I’m far enough along to take this seriously. Let’s assume for the moment the alien artifact is real and was communicating previously via this Simeon persona and now Athena. What are we to make of what he, she, it is telling us? And more important, what do we do next?”
They talked for thirty minutes before Chesterton cursed in frustration. “Let’s face it. We’re not going to make any decisions today. As for us trying to interrogate this Simeon, I think we need to leave that to those more qualified. My main current concern is what do we do moving forward, largely from a political perspective? I suggest we return and see if we can get more details about these other three examples Athena claims to have witnessed go extinct.”
When they signaled to Simeon to resume, only Simeon appeared.
“Athena believes she has delivered her message,” said Simeon. “Further contact will revert to me.”
“But we have many more questions,” protested Chesterton.
“And I will answer as best I can,” Simeon responded. “I am now free to offer a degree of advice on human activity.”
“What kind of advice and activity?” asked Harper.
“My sense of humans is that giving you some time to reflect on what you have heard will make future discussions more productive. I will ‘sign off’ for now, as you phrase it.”
Simeon disappeared from the screen.
“Bring him back,” ordered Chesterton, flushing red.
Mueller shook his head. “I’ll try, Mister President, but unless Simeon’s behavior has changed, he won’t respond.”
Ten minutes later, Mueller sat back in his chair and turned from the console.
“Sorry, but that’s it for today. If he keeps to the same pattern, he may respond tomorrow.”
Chesterton sighed and turned to Harper.
“Then, Stephen, I think both sides need some time to think. Why don’t we fly back to Ottawa where a meeting between the two of us can be passed off as a routine get-together of friends and allies?”
The president turned to Sinclair. “General, let’s not spread around to other staff what Athena told us. Not yet. It’s to be kept close to the vest.”
CHAPTER 48
CHANGES
Ottawa, Canada
During the flight to Ottawa, the two governmental parties huddled separately and outlined ideas and positions. Some of the Canadians were still huffy about the United States’ violation of their sovereignty, but Harper, though he agreed with the huffers, quashed this issue to focus on the two immediate bigger issues: whether to make public the existence of the Object, and what to do about Site 23.
When they reconvened the next day, the meeting was only for those who had been to Site 23. After the requisite coffee and chit-chat, Chesterton summarized the American view.
“On the issue of making all this public, we feel it is much too early to even seriously consider it at this time.”
Most of the Canadians nodded vigorously, though Chesterton noted not all of them.
“We need time to consider the consequences of every aspect of this. Consequences to not only our two economies, but the world economic system. Then there are the geopolitical issues. We’ve already seen some of those. The Chinese raided even when they didn’t know what we had. How will they and the other nations respond to the knowledge that other intelligent civilizations exist, some that are far more advanced than we are? And what about some kind of representative of at least one of these civilizations being here on Earth? We can all imagine the more hysterical media outlets running with this.”
Chesterton shook his head. “And that’s not even considering the Object’s warning about the future of humanity. I doubt we can even begin to re
alize the implications of what we’ve just learned. Going public now seems completely out of the question, from our view.” Turning to Harper, Chesterton said, “Mr. Prime Minister, how does Canada see all this?”
“Pretty much the same as the U.S.,” responded the stone-faced Canadian leader. “And I will add another reason . . . perhaps two related reasons. Not as momentous as those you have mentioned, Mr. President, but of practical reality. One is the effect on the internal politics of our two countries.”
Harper raised a hand as if to ward off expected thoughts. “I know . . . our politics can seem trivial compared to everything else, but let’s be honest. Both of our opposition parties will use this as soon as they find out, and we will lose control of the story. And I don’t mind stating that I believe my own party is more likely to handle this situation better than our main opposition. Of course, this can seem self-serving, but I stand by it.”
Harper looked around the room, leaned forward, and changed his focus from the president to everyone else. “Another point is, exactly how sure are we about what we heard at Site 23? I will concede that I am almost convinced of the authenticity of the Object. But given the magnitude of consequences if we’re wrong and this is some hoax, then it is only prudent that we go well beyond what may seem necessary to confirm the Object’s authenticity before taking actions that will impact our nations, the world, and possibly the entire human civilization. And I would go even further. Even assuming the Object is genuine, there is no way we can be sure of its ultimate goals. All we know now is what it tells us and that it comes from technology far beyond us. We need time to study the Object in more depth, in addition to considering the consequences for our institutions.”
There were general nods around the table and words of agreement. Harper continued. “For Canada, our position will be that no immediate public revelation should occur at this time. That an intense study of the Object be implemented for at least six months to give us time to contemplate how its existence should be revealed and the consequences of any revelation.”
Harper sighed and sat back in his chair.
“Thank you, Mr. Prime Minister, for your cogent comments. The U.S. concurs, so my understanding is that we are agreed no public release will occur at this time. This will give us time to study and plan further. Six months seems a reasonable initial timetable, although I’m sure we all realize it’s flexible.”
“Agreed, Mr. President, which brings us to the details of exactly what happens to Site 23? Given our agreement for more intensive study of the Object, the status of Site 23 has to change.”
Harper leaned forward again in his chair and looked at Chesterton. “We can work on the details, but we need to settle on the operation’s overall control, remembering that everything does, after all, take place entirely within Canadian sovereignty.”
Here we go, thought Chesterton. “Certainly, the organization must change, given the realities.”
Let’s see how they swallow this one now, thought Chesterton.
“But let’s don’t get bogged down in territorial claims that, after all, are based on happenstance. If, as Object claims, it has been where it is for millions of years, Canada just happens to have political control of the site at the moment, just like the U.S. only happens to be the world’s only real superpower at this time.”
Just to remind them of the relative status of our two countries. No . . . that’s not fair. It’s not easy being neighbors of an elephant that too much of the time doesn’t know what the hell it’s doing.
From their expressions, some Canadians were outraged, while others were thoughtful. Before members of the first group launched their salvos, Chesterton pushed on. He had been a politician most of his adult life. The Canadians might insist on being solely in charge of the site because it was in Canadian territory. That wasn’t going to happen, but how to frame the denial to avoid open confrontation? One thing he had learned was it was best to give something to avoid losing everything. Eating a little crow, if only for show, was just part of the larger game.
“First, Mr. Prime Minister, let me apologize for keeping Canada in the dark about the true nature of what was going on at Site 23. As I said before, I inherited the decisions made by previous presidents, and I won’t try to justify whether they made the right calls. That’s in the past. When I was first briefed on Site 23, I also initiated plans to bring Canada completely into the operation as soon as possible.”
Well, thought Chesterton, I did think about it, didn’t I? So, it’s not a complete fib.
“Our current crisis came on before we acted.” Chesterton was rewarded with at least a few Canadian nods as some people settled back into their chairs. Now came the harder part.
“Obviously, a more in-depth study of the Object is going to require a major ramp-up in personnel and facilities at Site 23. While it would be easier if we could move the Object to a site that’s more convenient, we’ve confirmed that’s impossible without its cooperation. General Sinclair’s reports also say that when the possibility was broached with Simeon, he unequivocally rejected any move. So, we’re stuck with the Object staying right where it is.”
Which is probably best because if it could be moved, thought Chesterton, the Canadians would almost certainly have held firm that it be moved somewhere still on Canadian soil and would have made it even harder to keep secret.
The Canadian defense minister spoke up for the first time. “This means a major buildup in Ellesmere. I would think personnel approaching at least a thousand.”
“At least that much,” offered the U.S. secretary of defense. “Then the question is how to keep such an increase in personnel and traffic quiet? It doesn’t seem possible.”
“Why try to hide it?” said Harper. “If you cannot keep a thousand personnel from being noticed once you put them someplace that remote, another option is to send even more personnel there and hide the thousand among them.”
Chesterton gave an appreciative grunt. “So, Stephen, something like we already were doing with Site 23, just upscale maybe a magnitude?”
“Right. We come up with plausible reasons why Canada and the U.S. want to establish a significant military and research base that far north, and most of the personnel will carry out whatever functions are appropriate for the cover story. The work with the Object will simply be in a restricted part of the operation—something you Americans seem good at.” The last words were biting.
“Of course, we’ll have to come up with a plausible cover story. Something the media and other countries will believe,” added the Canadian foreign minister.
Rennoux, the U.S. secretary of state, broke in eagerly. “I think we might already have a ready-made scenario. Our previous administrations have made several moves that were obviously related to China’s increasing pressure to lay claim to islands in the South China Sea. Specifically, we stationed a marine contingent near Darwin in northern Australia, arranged new defense treaties with the Philippines to counter Chinese claims to the islands and rocks near the Philippines, and gave verbal support to Japan and Taiwan in their disputes with China over other islands. We can let it be known, through media leaks and back channels, that we’re concerned with Russia and China trying similar ploys in the Arctic.”
Most of the Canadians considered this a reasonable option, at least by their expressions and the tone of their whispers among themselves. “We’ll need to think more about this,” said the Canadian foreign minister, “and if we go with this idea, there will be plenty of details to work out, both logistic and political.”
Chesterton moved on to the main sticking point. “The obvious solution is to share responsibility for staffing and operations. What we would propose is the following distribution of responsibility. For security, the facility and surrounding land need a sufficient ground force contingent to obviate any possible repeat of something like the Chinese attack or even larger. We propose a joint land combat capability of approximately equal Canadian and American forces, to be comma
nded by a Canadian with an American as second in command. Naval and air support to be joint and coordinated. These would have two functions. One, of course, is to support the expanded site and would be responsible directly to the site’s military commander as needed. The second function would be to extend sea and air cover over more of the Arctic to provide a more forward defense and match the cover story.
“The camp itself could be organized into two sections, instead of three with the previous setup. There’s no reason for a supposedly secret listening post any more for an operation of this size, and we would be open about spying on Russia, China, and North Korea. Level 2 would be focused on the Object and kept secret for as long as possible. After all, a large installation like we’re proposing would always have off-limit sections.
“We’re estimating that if the Level 2 staff grows to as much as a thousand, then Level 1 would be up to nine to ten thousand to provide a realistic cover operation. The head of Level 2 would be an American, with a Canadian second in command. They would report directly to a controlling committee that our two countries would agree upon.”
With that, Chesterton finished and waited for the Canadian posturing. To his surprise, there was little response, with several of the Canadians simply looking at the prime minister.
Well, kiss my ass, thought Chesterton. They must have already come up with something pretty similar. I guess I played my hand too early and gave up more than I would have had to. Oh, well, it’s important that we work well together if this is going to happen.
Harbinger (The Janus Harbinger Book 1) Page 65
