Dumbledore’s plan reaches its climax when Nagini is the last remaining Horcrux, which Snape will realize “when Lord Voldemort stops sending that snake forth to do his bidding, but keeps it safe beside him under magical protection.” (DH686) At this point, Snape has to find Harry and show him the memories that will inform Harry that he needs to die. There are so many potential disasters in this plan, it’s ludicrous.
What if Nagini is not the last remaining Horcrux? What if Harry somehow manages to kill her before finding Ravenclaw’s relic? Voldemort won’t be as worried for Nagini, given his other Horcruxes, and Snape won’t know to do anything.
If Snape is needed at Hogwarts, and Voldemort is to be kept away from Hogwarts, how will Snape even know what’s going on with Nagini?
What if Snape doesn’t find Harry? Surely the two won’t be hanging out on a regular basis.
Why would Harry listen to Snape or look through his memories? If Snape were alive, I’m fairly certain Harry would not have taken Snape’s memories. . . not without a lot of convincing.
What if Harry doesn’t have a Pensieve ready when he does get the memories? There’s a lot of emphasis on how rare they are. So is he meant to just take Snape at his word, then?
What if Snape dies?!? There is no contingency plan that we know of. No one else knows Harry needs to die. The entire thing goes to hell.46
All things considered, about a dozen fortuitous coincidences have to occur for Dumbledore’s plan to actually work. This haphazard manner is such a departure from the Dumbledore of previous books that I didn’t know what to make of it at first. If Dumbledore is willing to sacrifice so much to defeat Voldemort, he should be absolutely certain of his plan working. Instead, Dumbledore seems to be treating the entire war as a rather amusing game. It doesn’t gel with everything we know about Dumbledore. Whether he is benign or cold and calculating, Dumbledore has never before left things up to chance. Why does he not appear to have his bases covered?
The Flaw in the Plan
Dumbledore bares his soul to Harry the most in the climax of Order of the Phoenix, when he is talking about the prophecy and his plan to take care of Harry. This very illuminating quote emerges from that conversation:
“Do you see, Harry? Do you see the flaw in my brilliant plan now? I had fallen into the trap I had foreseen, that I had told myself I could avoid, that I must avoid. [. . .] I cared about you too much,” said Dumbledore simply. “I cared more for your happiness than your knowing the truth, more for your peace of mind than my plan, more for your life than the lives that might be lost if the plan failed.” (OP838)
It seems to me as if this entire quote can be applied to two plans. The first—the one Dumbledore speaks of in context—is to tell Harry about the prophecy and about his destiny to defeat Voldemort. However, taken out of context this quote can apply almost exactly to Dumbledore’s other grand plan: that of Harry sacrificing himself so the Scarcrux is destroyed.
Once Dumbledore began suspecting that Harry has a bit of Voldemort’s soul in him (at the end of Goblet of Fire), Dumbledore must have realized that Harry would have to die in order for Voldemort to be killed. When Harry relates how Voldemort used his blood to regenerate, Dumbledore has an infamous “gleam of triumph” in his eyes (GF696). This meant that Voldemort had tethered Harry’s life to his own. By using Harry’s blood to regenerate, which included Lily’s protective charm, he ensured that Harry would not be killed by Voldemort should it come to that. In other words, Dumbledore now had hope that Harry might survive the destruction of the Scarcrux.
However, there was no guarantee. All of this magic was completely unprecedented, and Dumbledore confesses that he only “guessed” at all of this (DH710). So Dumbledore still believed that, when the time came, there was a very real possibility that Harry would die.
But when the time came for Dumbledore’s scheming and plotting, when he set up a course for Harry to follow after learning that he (Dumbledore) only had a year to live, he fell into the exact same trap. He cared too much about Harry and wanted to delay the moment when Harry might have to die.
This quote also gives the reason why he did not tell Harry of his upcoming sacrifice. Surely by the end of HBP, Harry had proven himself to be exceptionally selfless, and he would have embraced his mortality. Dumbledore argues that “Harry must not know, not until the last moment, not until it is necessary, otherwise how could he have the strength to do what must be done?” (DH685) This is very feeble reasoning indeed, coming from someone who has watched Harry as closely as Dumbledore did. His high opinion of Harry must have made it clear that Harry would, in fact, do what was needed. Dumbledore was nearly thwarted once before by underestimating Harry way back in Sorcerer’s Stone, when Harry managed to get the Stone out of the Mirror. It’s unlikely he’d repeat that mistake.
But Dumbledore “cared more for [his] happiness than [his] knowing the truth, more for [his] peace of mind than [the] plan.” Otherwise, Dumbledore would have informed Harry of the sacrifice that was needed, and Harry would have proceeded as necessary.
Dumbledore cared “more for [Harry’s] life than the lives that might be lost if the plan failed.” This statement is touching in the context of Order of the Phoenix, because the only life that has been lost thus far is Sirius’s—which is tragic in its own right but is only one person. But when that statement is applied to the grander plan, it takes on a quite sinister tone. Dumbledore was gambling hundreds of lives, he was gambling the entire future of the wizarding world, in order to keep Harry alive and happy a little longer.
And it really was an “all in” gamble, because Dumbledore was gambling both Plan A and Plan B. Plan A (Harry’s self-sacrifice doesn’t actually kill him, allowing him to beat Voldemort) is defunct if Harry tries to kill Voldemort while the Scarcrux still tethers Voldemort to life. Plan B (Harry’s self-sacrifice imbues everyone with magical protection, so someone else beats Voldemort) is defunct if Harry never intends to sacrifice himself, because then no one will have the magical protection against Voldemort. Voldemort’s would-be vanquisher would be up against all of his formidable skill with no extraordinary protection as a defense. Dumbledore risked this all on a dangerous gamble for Harry’s sake.
Perhaps Dumbledore was Machiavellian, but when it came to Harry, he was very reluctantly so. Or to put it another way, Harry’s happiness was an end for Dumbledore that justified almost any means. . . superseded only by the need to defeat Voldemort once and for all.
So Dumbledore’s emotions got in the way. In late February, he has a heated exchange with Snape and tells Snape to come to his office. By this point, Dumbledore has had three private lessons with Harry, and has grown ever fonder of the boy. During that third lesson, Harry relates without a trace of irony how he told the Minister of Magic he was “Dumbledore’s man through and through”—a statement that nearly reduced Dumbledore to tears (HBP357). So it is with an exceedingly heavy heart that Dumbledore amends his plans one final time and comes up with two new plans to supplement Plan A and Plan B.
Plan C: Procrastinating Harry’s Pain
If you’ll recall Plan A, it seems to be well thought out and sensible in its execution, with the glaring exception of Step 3: alerting Harry to the need for his death. As we’ve discussed, the only reason for Dumbledore not telling Harry this in Half-Blood Prince was to keep Harry happy. However, the way in which Harry is finally told is so convoluted that I can only assume it was designed to be intentionally so. Anything else is an insult to Dumbledore’s intelligence, because there are a million ways in which he could have told Harry. But this is what Dumbledore chooses to do instead, as dictated to Snape:
“Harry must not know, not until the last moment, not until it is necessary, otherwise how could he have the strength to do what must be done? [. . .] There will come a time when Lord Voldemort will seem to fear for the life of his snake. [. . .] If there comes a time when Lord Voldemort stops sending that snake forth to do his bidding, but keeps it safe beside him under m
agical protection, then, I think, it will be safe to tell Harry.” (DH685-686)
The step of telling Harry about the Scarcrux should have been wholly independent of whatever else was going on. Instead, Dumbledore slows it down by falsely necessitating three things, in a separate Plan C:
Voldemort has to find out that Harry is hunting Horcruxes. Otherwise, he will not fear for Nagini and keep her close, so Snape will not know to alert Harry.
After Voldemort is worried for Nagini, Snape has to become aware of this.
Snape then has to find a way of getting to Harry and letting him know about the sacrifice.
Ignoring the problem of how Snape will get Harry to listen to him, these three points are a dangerous gamble, but not an absurd one. . . upon making several assumptions.
Voldemort will only find out about Harry’s Horcrux hunt after Harry has destroyed all the Horcruxes but Nagini. Otherwise, Harry is royally screwed. But since the whole plan goes to pieces if Voldemort finds out about the Horcrux hunt, and it’s extremely unlikely Harry will be able to kill Nagini without alerting Voldemort, this seems like a fair assumption to make.
After learning of the Horcrux hunt, Voldemort will have an opportunity to chat with Snape. Also reasonable, since Voldemort will likely start marshalling all his Death Eaters in his paranoia about Harry hunting Horcruxes.
After learning of the Horcrux hunt, Voldemort will not have the opportunity to make additional Horcruxes. This is the biggest logical flaw in all of this, since it seems like Voldemort would immediately start making more Horcruxes upon finding that the existing ones have been destroyed. It appears that here, Dumbledore was counting on Voldemort’s vanity and weakness for drama to save the day. . . he counted on Voldemort wanting to make grand and powerful objects into Horcruxes, using significant deaths, and this would have slowed Voldemort down considerably. Still, it seems like a risky assumption.47
After Snape has seen Nagini’s new protected status, he will have the opportunity to talk to Harry before things come to a head. Tricky, since Snape and Harry won’t be spending lots of quality time together, but feasible considering Snape’s resourcefulness.
In other words, Dumbledore is relying on a very precise sequence of events occurring within a fairly narrow timeline for all of this to work. But evidently, Dumbledore was willing to deal with the risk if it meant prolonging Harry’s happy obliviousness. Dumbledore is risking everything just to buy Harry that peace of mind while he’s hunting Horcruxes, orchestrating it so he does not find out about the Scarcrux until the very last possible moment.
However, this plan nearly falls apart because the first assumption is false. You know what they say about assuming. . . safe to say, this is as good a cautionary tale as any. Assumption (i) was that Voldemort would find out about Horcruxes after only Nagini was left. . . however, he finds out when the Diademcrux is still in play. In other words, the timeline narrows exponentially because Harry now must locate and destroy the Diademcrux before Voldemort has the chance to make new ones, amidst everything else going on.
As if that isn’t bad enough, something completely unforeseen happens: the final Horcrux ends up residing at Hogwarts. . . where Snape is! Thus, the timeline of Dumbledore’s carefully crafted plan narrows to mere hours. I’m sure Dumbledore never, in his wildest dreams, thought that Harry would be destroying the last Horcrux and Nagini and sacrificing himself the very same night.
From here on out it’s just incredible luck that things work out so Snape ends up delivering the information to Harry, albeit via Pensieve, which I don’t think Dumbledore intended (and it was certainly very silly if he did). This plan of Dumbledore’s to stall until the moment Harry had to find out about the Scarcrux very nearly sent all of his plans up in flames. . . But that wasn’t the only questionable plot brewing in Dumbledore’s brilliant mind.
Enter the Hallows
There is a curiosity about Deathly Hallows—namely, why bother with the titular Hallows at all? After all, the Hallows don’t have much bearing on the battle between Voldemort and Harry, with the exception of the Elder Wand. Harry unites them and becomes master of Death, but that does not turn out to mean much. As Dumbledore explains, “the true master does not seek to run away from Death. He accepts that he must die, and understands that there are far, far worse things in the living world than dying.” (DH721)
So finding the Hallows turned out to be about Harry accepting he must die? Sorry, this reader doesn’t buy it. If we know anything about Harry, it’s that he would be willing to die with or without Hallows. It seems like there isn’t that much special about being master of Death—after all, Lily and James both accepted they must die, and so did Dumbledore, and so did many other people. . . are they all masters of Death? And if so, then the Hallows are indeed superfluous.
I’ve yet to find any other theories on why the Hallows are even there, except a few cynical fans who ascribe their presence to Jo’s desire for an eleventh-hour MacGuffin. We have dived too far down the rabbit hole to doubt her now, so there is indeed a reason for their inclusion.
Most of what Dumbledore says in his final conversation with Harry can be taken at face value. But there is one statement that stands out as his usual enigmatic half-truth: “I too sought a way to conquer death.” (DH713) Dumbledore is not only referring to himself in his youth. I think Dumbledore intended to use the Hallows to make Harry the master of Death in the traditional way—making Harry unable to die.
Did Dumbledore really believe that to be master of Death meant to be a “Master. Conqueror. Vanquisher.” as Xenophilius Lovegood says? (DH410) He probably did not believe that it was certain, or even likely, to do so. But what if, on the odd chance, the Hallows did make Harry master of Death in the immortal sense? Dumbledore is so determined to keep Harry alive if at all possible, he is clutching at straws, so he would gamble on odds as long as these.
This is a classic Dumbledore plot, killing two birds with one stone. Not only would he be giving Harry a better chance of survival, but he would also prolong Harry’s life quite a bit by sending him hunting for the Hallows instead of the Horcruxes. He could have told Harry about the Hallows, instead of dropping the symbol in The Tales of Beedle the Bard and hoping the Trio figured it out. But Dumbledore is a big believer in sending people chasing after things in order to stall them, as we see with Voldemort. He did a similar thing with Harry and the Hallows.
This seems uncharacteristically reckless of Dumbledore, but he essentially confesses as much, when he tells Harry he “counted on Miss Granger to slow [Harry] up.” (DH720) So Dumbledore intentionally sent Harry on a time-consuming quest for the Hallows, because it would prolong Harry’s life, and it might give him a better chance at survival. This almost seems like the childish procrastination of a student, but it makes sense.
So it turns out that what Harry (and many readers) took as evidence that Dumbledore didn’t care—that he sent Harry on a quest with barely any of the needed information—was actually the strongest expression of Dumbledore’s love. Harry laments, “I don’t know who he loved, Hermione, but it was never me. This isn’t love, the mess he’s left me in.” (DH362) As usual, Hermione is right and Harry’s wrong, and Hermione says, “He loved you. I know he loved you.”
Dwelling on Dreams
What’s interesting is that though Dumbledore intended Harry to master the Hallows, he did not allow Harry to access the Resurrection Stone during his quest. The Stone remained hidden inside Harry’s first Snitch, until Harry informed the Snitch that he was about to die. Dumbledore gives us some insight on why he barred access to the Stone:
“Harry, I only feared that you would fail as I had failed. I only dreaded that you would make my mistakes. I crave your pardon, Harry. I have known, for some time now, that you are the better man.” (DH713)
and
“I was afraid that your hot head might dominate your good heart. I was scared that, if presented outright with the facts about those tempting objects, you might seize the Ha
llows as I did, at the wrong time, for the wrong reasons. If you laid hands on them, I wanted you to possess them safely.” (DH720)
This shows that Dumbledore did still have the big picture in mind, despite how derailed his plans were by this point. He wanted to delay Harry and arm him, but he was not willing to risk Harry just getting caught up with the dead and ignoring his Horcrux-hunting duties forever. To be fair to Dumbledore, this is a reasonable concern, because Harry has shown a fascination with death, and upon Dumbledore’s untimely end, the temptation may have overpowered Harry. We see how quickly Harry decides that the Stone is the Hallow he’d most like to have (DH414). Only once Harry had fulfilled his mission and was facing his death would Dumbledore allow him to indulge and seek comfort from the deceased.
This comes back to the point I made earlier: for Dumbledore, Harry’s happiness and survival is a primary goal, superseded only by the need to defeat Voldemort. Dumbledore does an awful lot for Harry’s sake, as I’ve been expounding. However, he will not give Harry the Resurrection Stone until the last possible moment, because he believes Harry’s fascination with death would be the undoing of all his plans if indulged.
In fact, Dumbledore is so confident in the possibility that Harry would be unable to proceed if given the Stone, Dumbledore removes his own ability to help from beyond the grave. Harry says right away that he wants the Stone to “bring people back, [. . .] Sirius . . . Mad-Eye . . . Dumbledore . . . my parents. . . .” (DH416) Imagine how much easier Deathly Hallows would have been if Harry could have brought Dumbledore back for a chat. But Harry might completely lose himself in his desire to be with the dead, as the second brother in Beedle’s tale did, and as Harry nearly does at Godric’s Hollow (DH329). Even Dumbledore, who took many risks, will not take this risk: that Harry will dwell on dreams and forget to live.
The Life and Lies of Albus Percival Wulfric Brian Dumbledore Page 13
