by Leigh Sales
For all recorded time, human beings have been fascinated Several books and articles were invaluable in aiding my understanding of chance, destiny and probability including:
Belkin, L., ‘The Odds of That’, New York Times Magazine, 11 August 2002, New York, retrieved from http://www.nytimes.com/2002/08/11/magazine/11COINCIDENCE.html?pagewanted=all
Bernstein, P., Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk, John Wiley & Sons, 1998, Brisbane.
Gilbert, D., Stumbling on Happiness, Harper Press, 2006, London.
Kaplan, E. & Kaplan, M., Chances Are: Adventures in Probability, Penguin, 2006, London.
Leigh, A., The Luck of Politics, Black Inc., 2015, Melbourne.
Rosenthal, J., Struck by Lightning: The Curious World of Probabilities, Joseph Henry Press, 2006, Washington.
Gambling can be dated back to 3500 BC Bernstein, op. cit.
And gamblers, along with people whose jobs involve precision Kaplan & Kaplan, op. cit.
Human brains have evolved to need predictability My explanation of the brain’s preference for certainty and predictability, as well as its chemistry, draws on research discussed in Belkin, op. cit., and in the following books and articles:
https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/your-brain-work/200910/hunger-certainty
http://www.patheos.com/blogs/tippling/2016/02/21/the-psychological-need-for-certainty-goddidit/
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/are-we-addicted-to-inform/
In one study, monkeys were given the option . . . https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/are-we-addicted-to-inform/
In another experiment, humans were found to prefer:
http://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms10996
https://www.forbes.com/sites/alicegwalton/2016/03/29/uncertainty-about-the-future-is-more-stressful-than-knowing-that-the-future-is-going-to-suck/#55c13894646a
The idea that everything happens for a reason Blastland, M., & Spiegelhalter, D., The Norm Chronicles: Stories and Numbers About Danger, Profile Books, 2013, London, p 75; Kaplan & Kaplan, op. cit., p 83.
The brain wants an explanation so it can satisfy Ronnie Janoff-Bulman is one of the world’s foremost thinkers on trauma and adaptation, and much of her work explains these concepts brilliantly. I found this article especially useful for this section of the book: Janoff-Bulman, R., ‘Assumptive Worlds and the Stress of Traumatic Events: Applications of the Schema Construct’, Social Cognition, 7(2), 1989, pp 113–136. http://doi.org/10.1521/soco.1989.7.2.113
Take coincidence. You can find whole books devoted to King, B., & Plimmer, M., Beyond Coincidence, Allen & Unwin, 2003, Sydney. (Page 26 of this work in particular refers to the common belief that coincidence suggests there is more to life than random chance.)
After the Lindt siege, there were numerous anecdotes A couple of examples can be found in these news articles (accessed 5 March 2017):
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/lindt-siege-i-should-have-been-inside-the-lindt-cafe-that-day-reveals-maria-twomey/news-story/877e42652e1ea13865dec6cb29322b1b
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/lindt-cafe-siege-how-martin-place-siege-horror-unfolded-before-me/news-story/631b0562dd5793660b0932d878faa929
Such stories almost always appear after a disaster The Smithsonian magazine included a clipping from The Evening News in an article about famous people who should have been on the Titanic but weren’t. http://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/seven-famous-people-who-missed-the-titanic-101902418/?page=8 (accessed 21 May 2017)
The Law of Large Numbers explains why I relied on several books to come to an understanding of the Law of Large Numbers, including: Kaplan & Kaplan, op. cit.; Rosenthal, op. cit.; and Leigh, op. cit.
Say you dream that a friend died King & Plimmer, op. cit., p 43.
Yet Australia’s population is 24 million The Australian Bureau of Statistics has a population clock that is constantly updated. At the time of writing, the Australian population was 24 million. http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs%40.nsf/94713ad445ff1425ca25682000192af2/1647509ef7e25faaca2568a900154b63?OpenDocument
If the chance of awful, random disasters The discussion about dread risk and evolutionary biology are informed by: Gigerenzer, G., Calculated Risks, Simon & Schuster, 2002, Sydney (particularly p 237); Ripley, A., The Unthinkable: Who Survives When Disaster Strikes – and Why, Random House, 2008, London (particularly p 33); Slovic, P., & Weber, E.U., ‘Perception of Risk Posed by Extreme Events’, Risk Management Strategies in an Uncertain World, n.d., pp 1–21.
The news doesn’t help you assess the gravest risks Ripley, op. cit., p 49.
In the months after the September 2001 terrorist attacks ibid., p 34.
. . . more than a thousand died in car accidents Bureau of Infrastructure and Regional Development https://bitre.gov.au/statistics/safety//
. . . minimax regret Blastland & Spiegelhalter, op. cit., p 56.
The top three causes of death in Australia Every year, the Australian Bureau of Statistics publishes the Leading Causes of Death data for Australia. The most recent figures at the time of writing are for 2015: http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/[email protected]/allprimarymainfeatures/47E19CA15036B04BCA2577570014668B?opendocument
. . . around one in a thousand Australians died from heart disease In 2014, 20,173 people died of heart disease, out of an Australian population of 23,490,700, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics: http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/Lookup/by%20Subject/3303.0~2014~Main%20Features~Leading%20Causes%20of%20Death~10001. To work out the odds, the population figure is divided by the figure for heart-disease deaths, giving one in 1164.
By contrast, the odds of any single Australian being one of the hostages The Australian population in 2014 was 23,490,700. Two hostages died in the Lindt Café siege. To calculate the odds, the population figure is divided by the number of hostage deaths, giving one in nearly 12 million.
. . . how much does the government spend on combating and treating cardiovascular disease The latest figures the government-funded Australian Institute of Health and Wellbeing could provide at the time of writing: http://www.aihw.gov.au/media-release-detail/?id=60129546452
How much does it spend on national security The latest available figures at the time of writing, from the 2015/16 Commonwealth Budget: http://www.budget.gov.au/2015-16/content/glossy/nat_sec/html/nat_sec-01.htm
We prefer to take a gamble that has Bernstein, op. cit.
Experts call those type of blindsides black swans My understanding of black swans and how organisations think about them was informed by:
Albin, G.F., ‘When Black Swans Aren’t: On Better Recognition, Assessment and Forecasting of Large Scale, Large Impact and Rare Event Change’, Risk Management and Insurance Review, 16(1), 2013, pp 1–23
Makridakis, S., & Taleb, N., ‘Living in a World of Low Levels of Predictability,’ International Journal of Forecasting, 25(4), 2009, pp 840–844 http://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2009.05.008
Masys, A.J., ‘Black Swans to Grey Swans: Revealing the Uncertainty’, Disaster Prevention and Management, 21(3), 2012, pp 320–335 http://doi.org/10.1108/09653561211234507
He agrees to meet, and so on a slightly chilly Personal interview, M. Spence with the author, Sydney, November 2017.
TWO: WE’RE ALL IN THIS TOGETHER
I remember a very famous news photograph http://www.news.com.au/national/northern-territory/walter-mikac-looks-back-at-the-port-arthur-massacre-and-its-legacy/news-story/89c9f4155c19e69f491de68ccf720f40
In 2008, newspapers ran a story about the death of Garry Lynch:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/garry-lynch-dies-at-90/2008/09/14/1221330652997.html
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/fond-farewell-for-garry-lynch/news-story/813f9ccd02140b80252769b5fb435584 (both articles accessed 28 March 2017)
‘The one I think about Personal interview, W. Mikac with the author, Lennox Head, August 2016. For some of the account of what happened to Walter, I also used his own book as a reference: Mik
ac, W., & Simpson, L., To Have and to Hold, Pan Macmillan, Sydney, 1997.
‘There was a lady I visited, Carol Loughton http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/a-daughter-gone-a-life-in-ruins/2006/03/31/1143441339508.html (accessed 29 January 2018)
‘I read this article a month ago The article that Walter read is at http://www.smh.com.au/good-weekend/matt-golinskis-recovery-effort-20160527-gp5w9a.html (accessed 28 March 2017)
. . . he established the Alannah & Madeline Foundation You can find out more about the excellent work of the foundation here: https://www.amf.org.au/
The ripple effect of a national tragedy My thinking on these questions was partly informed by reading:
Nicholls, S., ‘The Role of Communication in Supporting Resilient Communities’, in Cork, S., (ed.) Resilience and Transformation: Preparing Australia for an Uncertain Future, CSIRO Publishing, 2010, Canberra, pp 181–187
Eyre, A., Literature and Best Practice Review and Assessment: Identifying People’s Needs in Major Emergencies and Best Practice in Humanitarian Response, UK Department for Culture, Media and Sport, 2006, London.
One of the most common ways Western communities Whitton, S., ‘Exploring the Role of Memorialising in Disaster Recovery’, Winston Churchill Memorial Trust for Australia, Canberra, 3 Oct 2016. https://www.churchilltrust.com.au/fellows/detail/4086/Shona+Whitton (accessed 5 February 2017); Eyre, op. cit.
There are hundreds of thousands of online Barak, A., Boniel-Nissim, M., & Suler, J., ‘Fostering Empowerment in Online Support Groups’, Computers in Human Behavior, 24(5), 2008, pp 1867–1883. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.chb.2008.02.004
. . . they offer some benefits that face-to-face interactions don’t ibid.; Fox, S., & Fallows, D., Internet Health Resources, Pew Internet & American Life Project, 2003, Washington DC, retrieved from http://www.pewinternet.org
A 2017 Australian study asked people who donated The ‘Australia Speaks’ report was commissioned by Research Australia in 2017. The polling of donors was conducted by Roy Morgan Research.
A broader study, conducted the previous year Giving Australia 2016: Philanthropy and Philanthropists, Queensland University of Technology, & Swinburne University of Technology, April 2017.
Numerous studies, including after the 1990 Gulf War Holman, E.A., Garfin, D.R., & Silver, R.C., ‘Media’s Role in Broadcasting Acute Stress Following the Boston Marathon Bombings’, PNAS (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences), 111(1), 2014, pp 93–98.
A study that started in 2001 looked at the mental health Updegraff, J.A., & Holman, E.A., ‘Searching for and Finding Meaning in Collective Trauma: Results from a National Longitudinal Study of the 9/11 Attacks’, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 95(3), 2008, pp 709–722. http://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.95.3.709.
Research after the Boston Marathon bombing Holman, op. cit.
The good news is that communities are generally very resilient ibid.; Eyre, op. cit.
If good leaders put those things in place These articles informed my thinking of leadership in times of crisis:
https://hbr.org/2011/01/how-a-good-leader-reacts-to-a
http://www.oxfordhandbooks.com/view/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199653881.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780199653881-e-035
‘You had to put what happened into some sort of national context Personal interview, J. Howard with the author, Sydney, July 2016.
John Howard dealt with more Australian loss of life In order to make this claim, I ran through non-wartime prime ministers myself and could not come up with somebody who had seen more death as the national leader. James Curran, professor of Australian history at the University of Sydney, verified this analysis in an email exchange. John Howard himself is a keen student of Australian political history – I also asked for his assessment and he thought my analysis was correct.
Howard often emphasised heroism Gillman, S., ‘Heroes, Mates and Family: How Tragedy Teaches Us About Being Australian’, Cultural Studies Review, 16(1), 2010, pp 240–250.
His remarks after the 2002 Bali bombings National Memorial Service reflection, 24 Oct 2002, remarks of the prime minister. http://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query=Id%3A%22media%2Fpressrel%2FSBP76%22 (accessed 25 August 2016)
Canberra press gallery journalist Misha Schubert Schubert, M., ‘PM’s Arms Not All-embracing’, The Age, 16 January 2005, p 17.
Howard’s air of awkward authenticity The data about Howard’s poll numbers and the commentary from former prime minister Paul Keating are reported in Hartcher, P., ‘The Prime Minister We Had to Have’, Sydney Morning Herald, 28 May 2005, p 27. https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-prime-minister-we-had-to-have-20050528-gdleug.html
In 1968, Howard missed out on winning Leigh, op. cit.
. . . ultimately resulted in the deaths of forty-four https://www.awm.gov.au/encyclopedia/war_casualties/ (accessed 2 September 2016)
As the marvellous Australian author Helen Garner Garner, H., Everywhere I Look, Text Publishing, 2016, Melbourne, p 212.
THREE: THE EYE OF THE STORM
His survival was so extraordinary that an American medical journal Scott, J.G. & Zimmerman, M.D., ‘Survival: Case History’, Annals of Internal Medicine, 127(5), 1997, pp 405–409.
‘This week, I went and saw the movie Sully Personal interview, J. Scott with the author, Brisbane, September 2016.
In 1991, James Scott was twenty-two years old The account of James’s experience is based on his own book as well as our interview: Scott, J. & Robertson J., Lost in the Himalayas, Lothian, 1993, Melbourne.
Very quickly, the agent tied up a deal Carleton, R., Hardaker, D. & Hogan, A., ‘Survival’, 60 Minutes, Nine Network Australia, broadcast 9 March 1992.
Frontline, the brilliant satire Desert Angel was episode 2, series 1 and can be viewed here: https://vimeo.com/12697001
In February 2009, one of the most devastating bushfires Muller, D. & Gawenda, M., Black Saturday in the Media Spotlight, University of Melbourne, 2011, Melbourne.
One story I pitched was about children I have not been able to obtain a copy of this story, so I am relying on my own memory. It would have aired on Channel Nine, Brisbane, some time in 1994.
. . . I went on a raid of a cattle farm Sales, L., ‘RSPCA Cattle’, ABC News Brisbane, 29 December 1994.
I was sent to New Orleans Sales, L., ‘Tens of Thousands Unaccounted for After Hurricane Devastation’, AM, ABC Radio, 5 September 2005. http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2005/s1453048.htm (accessed 20 November 2016)
An American psychologist and academic Newman, E. & Nelson, S., ‘Reporting on Resilience and Recovery in the Face of Disaster and Crime: Research and Training Implications’ Australian Journalism Review, 34(1), 2012, p 24.
. . . Amanda Gearing could not believe The description of Amanda’s experience on 10 January 2011 and in the aftermath: personal interviews, A. Gearing with the author, May 2016 and July 2016, via Skype and telephone. Amanda Gearing also kindly provided copies of the videos she had taken of the rainfall so I could observe it myself.
. . . she was witnessing a superstorm For background information about the cause and impact of the 2011 Queensland floods, I relied on the two official inquiries into the events and their aftermath:
Barnes, M., Inquest into the deaths caused by the South-East Queensland floods of January 2011, Office of the State Coroner, Queensland, 2012, Brisbane, retrieved from http://www.courts.qld.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0019/152362/cif-seq-floods-20120605.pdf
Holmes, J.C.E. & Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry, Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry Final Report, 2012, retrieved from http://www.floodcommission.qld.gov.au/publications/final-report/
. . . thanks to a record wet season Collerton, S., ‘She’s Back: What La Nina Means for Summer’, 2011. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-09-21/la-nina-explainer/2902456 (accessed 8 July 2016)
. . . from a population of about 500 http://www.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2011/quickstat/GL_QLD1250?opendocument&nav
pos=220, (accessed 12 July 2016)
Even so, the scale of the loss and trauma Amanda’s reporting can be read and heard at:
Gearing, A., The Torrent: Toowoomba and the Lockyer Valley, 10 January 2011, University of Queensland Press, 2012, St Lucia
Gearing, A., ‘The Day That Changed Grantham’, 2013, http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/360/the-day-that-changed-grantham/4382482 (accessed 11 July 2016)
Amanda’s study – from her admittedly small sample Gearing, A., Lessons From Media Reporting of Natural Disasters: A Case Study of the 2011 Flash Floods in Toowoomba and the Lockyer Valley, Queensland University of Technology, 2012, Brisbane.
The Black Saturday researchers asked survivors Gawenda & Muller, op. cit., p 204.
FOUR: THE THINGS THAT GET YOU THROUGH
In 1998, a mutual friend arranged for them The explanation of how Juliet met Nick, Nick’s backstory, the circumstances surrounding Nick’s death, and his efforts to get medical help for his son Antony are based on several sources, including an interview with Nick’s partner, Juliet Darling, as well as:
Darling, J., A Double Spring: A Year of Tragedy, Grief and Love, Allen & Unwin, 2013, Sydney
MacMahon, P.A. (magistrate), Nicholas Waterlow: Finding, Glebe NSW: Coroners Court Glebe, Glebe, 2014a. http://www.coroners.justice.nsw.gov.au/Documents/waterlow%20finding.pdf
