by Annie Duke
CHAPTER 1: LIFE IS POKER, NOT CHESS
Pete Carroll and the Monday Morning Quarterbacks: I refer throughout the book to Pete Carroll’s play-call at the end of the Super Bowl and the reaction. The critical stories referred to by headlines are Chris Chase, “What on Earth Was Seattle Thinking with Worst Play Call in NFL History?,” USA Today, February 1, 2015, http://ftw.usatoday.com/2015/02/seattle-seahawks-last-play-interception-marshawn-lynch-super-bowl-malcolm-butler-play-clal-pete-carroll; Mark Maske, “‘Worst Play-Call in Super Bowl History’ Will Forever Alter Perception of Seahawks, Patriots,” Washington Post, February 2, 2015, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/sports/wp/2015/02/02/worst-play-call-in-super-bowl-history-will-forever-alter-perception-of-seahawks-patriots; Alex Marvez, “Dumbest Call in Super Bowl History Could Be Beginning of the End for Seattle Seahawks,” FoxSports.com, February 2, 2015, http://www.foxsports.com/nfl/story/super-bowl-seattle-seahawks-pete-carroll-darrell-bevell-russell-wilson-dumbest-call-ever-020215; Jerry Brewer, “Seahawks Lost Because of the Worst Call in Super Bowl History,” Seattle Times, February 1, 2015, http://old.seattletimes.com/html/seahawks/2025601887_brewer02xml.html; and Nicholas Dawidoff, “A Coach’s Terrible Super Bowl Mistake,” New Yorker, February 2, 2015, http://www.newyorker.com/news/sporting-scene/pete-carroll-terrible-super-bowl-mistake.
The stories explaining the potentially sound rationale for the play-call are Brian Burke, “Tough Call: Why Pete Carroll’s Decision to Pass Was Not as Stupid as It Looked,” Slate.com, February 2, 2015, http://www.slate.com/articles/sports/sports_nut/2015/02/why_pete_carroll_s_decision_to_pass_wasn_t_the_worst_play_call_ever.html, and Benjamin Morris, “A Head Coach Botched the End of the Super Bowl, and It Wasn’t Pete Carroll,” FiveThirtyEight.com, February 2, 2015, https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-head-coach-botched-the-end-of-the-super-bowl-and-it-wasnt-pete-carroll. The description of Pete Carroll’s appearance on the Today show came from Chris Wesseling, “Pete Carroll Concedes ‘Worst Result of a Call Ever,” NFL.com, February 5, 2015, http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000469003/article/pete-carroll-concedes-worst-result-of-a-call-ever.
The game information and statistics are from Pro-Football-Reference.com, though many of them also appeared in accounts and analyses of the game.
Quick or dead: our brains weren’t built for rationality: For a good overview on our problems processing data, including assuming causation when there is only a correlation and cherry-picking data to confirm the narrative we prefer, see the New York Times op-ed by Gary Marcus and Ernest Davis, “Eight (No, Nine!) Problems with Big Data,” on April 6, 2014.
In addition to the sources mentioned in this section and additional materials cited in the Selected Bibliography and Recommendations for Further Reading, Colin Camerer was nice enough to spend two hours on the phone talking with me about this subject. I highly recommend watching his outstanding TEDx Talk, “Neuroscience, Game Theory, Monkeys,” which includes a fun look at where chimpanzees are actually better at game theory than humans.
Dr. Strangelove: I met historian George Dyson (son of Freeman Dyson) at a mentoring conference for youth called Adventures of the Mind. The conference was held at the Institute for Advanced Study. During my speech, I mentioned—as I do in practically every speech—John von Neumann and told the students that this site was hallowed ground for me because it’s where von Neumann worked. George heard me say that and later e-mailed me a scan of one of von Neumann’s gambling markers.
The information about von Neumann, in addition to the sources mentioned in the section (which are cited in the Selected Bibliography and Recommendations for Further Reading), are from the following sources: Boston Public Library, “100 Most Influential Books of the Century,” posted on TheGreatestBooks.org; Tim Hartford, “A Beautiful Theory,” Forbes, December 10, 2006; Institute for Advanced Study, “John von Neumann’s Legacy,” IAS.edu; Alexander Leitch, “von Neumann, John,” A Princeton Companion (1978); Robert Leonard, “From Parlor Games to Social Science: von Neumann, Morgenstern, and the Creation of Game Theory 1928–1944,” Journal of Economic Literature (1995).
The quotes from reviews that greeted Theory of Games are from Harold W. Kuhn’s introduction to the sixtieth anniversary edition.
The influences behind the title character in Dr. Strangelove either are alluringly vague or differ based on who’s telling (or speculating). John von Neumann shared a number of physical characteristcs with the character and is usually cited as an influence. Others named as influences include Wernher von Braun, Herman Kahn, Edward Teller, and Henry Kissinger. Except for Kissinger, who was a relatively obscure Harvard professor when the film was made, these are all conceivable models.
The influence of John von Neumann on game theory, and of game theory on modern economics, is unquestioned. At least eleven Nobel laureates in economics have been cited for their work connected with or influenced by game theory. NobelPrize.org has cited the following eleven winners of the Prize in Economic Sciences (formally called “The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel”), by year, field, and contribution: (1) John C. Harsanyi, (2) John F. Nash Jr., and (3) Reinhard Selten (1994, game theory, “for their pioneering analysis of equilibria in the theory of non-cooperative games”); (4) Robert J. Aumann and (5) Thomas C. Schelling (2005, game theory, “for having enhanced our understanding of conflict and cooperation through game theory analysis”); (6) Leonid Hurwicz, (7) Eric S. Maskin, and (8) Roger B. Myerson (2007, microeconomics, “for having laid the foundations of mechanism design theory”); (9) Alvin E. Roth and (10) Lloyd S. Shapley (2012, applied game theory, “for the theory of stable allocations and the practice of market design”); and (11) Jean Tirole (2014, industrial organization, microeconomics, “for his analysis of market power and regulation”).
Poker vs. chess: My brother Howard came from a chess background, but the movement of players from chess into poker is relatively rare. In my opinion, the lack of uncertainty in chess compared with the great uncertainty in poker is a barrier to transitioning from one to the other. In contrast, during my time in poker there was a lot of crossover between backgammon and poker. Many of the greatest poker players are also world-class backgammon players: Chip Reese, Huckleberry Seed, Jason Lester, Gus Hansen, Paul Magriel, Dan Harrington, and Erik Seidel. The greater crossover with backgammon likely comes from the more prominent element of uncertainty that backgammon and poker share. Poker players have to navigate the luck in the deal of the cards. Backgammon players have to navigate the luck in the roll of the dice.
A lethal battle of wits: The scene between Westley and Vizzini from The Princess Bride should be instantly familiar to generations of movie fans. The quotes from the lethal battle of wits are actually from the novel, though the scenes are nearly identical in both formats. The only notable difference is one instance where author-screenwriter William Goldman and director Rob Reiner expertly adapted Vizzini’s overconfidence to the appropriate medium. When Vizzini introduces the man in black to his indescribable intellect, movie-Vizzini gets right to the point, reciting the names of antiquity’s greatest minds and concluding, by comparison: “MORONS!” In the novel, Goldman has Vizzini deliver a pompous, gasbaggy speech. This is the speech in its entirety: “There are no words to contain all my wisdom. I am so cunning, crafty and clever, so filled with deceit, guile and chicanery, such a knave, so shrewd, cagey as well as calculating, as diabolical as I am vulpine, as tricky as I am untrustworthy . . . well, I told you there were not words invented yet to explain how great my brain is, but let me put it this way: the world is several million years old and several billion people have at one time or another trod upon it, but I, Vizzini the Sicilian, am, speaking with pure candor and modesty, the slickest, sleekest, sliest and wiliest fellow who has yet come down the pike.”
When talking about 4 coin flips versus 10,000, I was speaking relatively. There has actually been a lot of work done on how many times you need to flip a coin to determ
ine if the coin is fair. If you are interested, you can read an explanation in Wikipedia, s.v. “Checking Whether a Coin Is Fair,” accessed June 1, 2017, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Checking_whether_a_coin_is_fair.
Redefining wrong: For the quotes about how, in setting odds in advance of the Brexit vote, the bookmakers got it “wrong,” see Jon Sindreu, “Big London Bets Tilted Bookmakers’ ‘Brexit’ Odds,” Wall Street Journal, June 26, 2016, https://www.wsj.com/articles/big-london-bets-tilted-bookmakers-brexit-odds-1466976156, and Alan Dershowitz, “Why It’s Impossible to Predict This Election,” Boston Globe, September 13, 2016, https://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2016/09/13/why-impossible-predict-this-election/Y7B4N39FqasHzuiO81sWEO/story.html. If you are interested in more details about the confusion that follows when you declare someone “right” or “wrong” about a prediction, I wrote on the topic right after the Brexit vote and again before the presidential election. “Bookies vs. Bankers on Brexit: Who’s Gambling Now?,” Huff ingtonPost.com, July 13, 2016, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/bookies-vs-bankers-on-brexit-whos-gambling-now_us_57866312e4b0cbf01e9ef902, and “Even Dershowitz? Mistaking Odds for Wrong When the Underdog Wins,” Huffington Post, September 21, 2016, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/annie-duke/even-dershowitz-mistaking_b_12120592.html.
Nate Silver and his website, FiveThirtyEight.com, bore the brunt of the criticism for pollsters and forecasters after the 2016 presidential election. Silver’s site updated, in real time, polling and forecasting data on the election and had (depending on the date) the probability of a Clinton victory at approximately 60%–70%. If you Google (without the quotation marks) “Nate Silver got it wrong election,” 465,000 results come up. Politico’s November 9 headline was “How Did Everyone Get It So Wrong?,” http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/how-did-everyone-get-2016-wrong-presidential-election-231036. Gizmodo.com jumped on Silver even before the election, in a November 4 article by Matt Novak titled “Nate Silver’s Very Very Wrong Predictions About Donald Trump Are Terrifying,” http://paleofuture.gizmodo.com/nate-silvers-very-very-wrong-predictions-about-donald-t-1788583912, including the declaration, “Silver has no f**king idea.”
CHAPTER 2: WANNA BET?
Hearing is believing: The quote about baldness is from Susan Scutti, “Going Bald Isn’t Your Mother’s Fault; Maternal Genetics Are Not to Blame,” Medical Daily, May 18, 2015, http://www.medicaldaily.com/going-bald-isnt-your-mothers-fault-maternal-genetics-are-not-blame-333668. There are numerous lists of such common misconceptions, such as Emma Glanfield’s “Coffee Isn’t Made from Beans, You Can’t See the Great Wall of China from Space and Everest ISN’T the World’s Tallest Mountain: The Top 50 Misconceptions That Have Become Modern Day ‘Facts,’” Daily Mail, April 22, 2015, http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3050941/Coffee-isn-t-beans-t-Great-Wall-China-space-Everest-ISN-T-worlds-tallest-mountain-Experts-unveil-life-s-50-misconceptions-modern-day-facts.html; Wikipedia, s.v. “List of Common Misconceptions,” accessed June 27, 2017, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_common_misconceptions.
“They saw a game”: The quotes from the school newspapers are as they appeared in Hastorf and Cantril’s paper.
Redefining confidence: When you express uncertainty to someone who knows about communicating that way, the mutual recognition is like a light switch turning on. When I was early in the process of writing this book, I had lunch with Stuart Firestein. We had barely exchanged pleasantries when the waiter came to take our order. The waiter was not a native English speaker, and I have a lot of dietary restrictions that are difficult enough to communicate to someone who shares my first language. When the waiter walked away, I said, “Well, that’s seventy-three percent.” Stuart started laughing, because he immediately knew what I meant. “I think it’s lower than that,” he said. “Maybe somewhere in the forties that he’s going to get your order right.” My declaration of uncertainty invited the discussion about whether my lunch order would be correct. That seems like a small thing, but when you express uncertainty in this way, you will invite debate about more significant topics.
CHAPTER 3: BET TO LEARN: FIELDING THE UNFOLDING FUTURE
Working backward is hard: the SnackWell’s Phenomenon: In discussing classical stimulus-response experiments, I’m referring to the legendary work by B. F. Skinner. The Selected Bibliography and Recommendations for Further Reading includes a citation to one of his principal experiments, as well as to an article by psychologist Ogden Lindsley describing some of Skinner’s work.
“If it weren’t for luck, I’d win every one”: The Institute for Advanced Study’s web page on John von Neumann’s legacy includes von Neumann’s quote about the trees passing him at 60 mph, and how one of them stepped into his path. William Poundstone, who told several von Neumann stories in Prisoner’s Dilemma, also mentioned JvN’s driving habits.
There are several versions of transcripts and videos of the Iowa Republican presidential primary debate on January 28, 2016, such as Team Fix, “7th Republican Debate Transcript, Annotated: Who Said What and What It Meant,” Washington Post, January 28, 2016, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/01/28/7th-republican-debate-transcript-annotated-who-said-what-and-what-it-meant.
People watching: Yogi Berra has proven a fertile source for quotes on such a variety of subjects that it’s reasonable to wonder whether he actually said all the things attributed to him. Because he wrote a book using this astute observation as its title, I feel I’m on safe ground considering this an actual quote, or at least one Berra adopted as his own. Note the title of Yogi’s 2008 book (written with Dave Kaplan): You Can Observe a Lot by Watching: What I’ve Learned about Teamwork from the Yankees and Life.
Published information about the Bartman play and its aftermath is plentiful, and the game and the play are available on YouTube. The behavior of the fans at Wrigley Field and the quotes appear in Alex Gibney’s 2014 ESPN Films documentary, Catching Hell.
Other people’s outcomes reflect on us: For some of the places in which Dawkins has written about natural selection proceeding by competition among the phenotypes of genes, see Current Problems in Sociobiology and The Greatest Show on Earth, cited in the Selected Bibliography and Recommendations for Further Reading.
For an examination of whether people would choose to earn $70,000 in 1900 or in 2010, see (and listen to) “Would You Rather Be Rich in 1900, or Middle-Class Now?,” NPR.org, October 12, 2010, http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2010/10/12/130512149/the-tuesday-podcast-would-you-rather-be-middle-class-now-or-rich-in-1900.
Reshaping habit: Ivan Pavlov’s work is well known and summarized in every form of media. I included, in the Selected Bibliography and Recommendations for Further Reading, one of countless possible ways to learn more about Pavlov’s ubiquitous experiments, a book by Daniel Todes titled Pavlov’s Physiology Factory: Experiment, Interpretation, Laboratory Enterprise.
If you don’t watch golf on television, golf analyst and former PGA Tour pro John Maginnes described the “blame the green” stare in “Maginnes On Tap,” Golf.SwingBySwing.com, February 13, 2013, http://golf.swingbyswing.com/article/maginnes-on-tapgolfers-in-hollywood. Phil Mickelson’s practice drill of making one hundred straight three-foot putts has been described by legendary golf teacher David Pelz, who has worked with Mickelson. “Dave Pelz and the 3 Foot Putting Circle,” GolfLife.com, June 13, 2016, http://www.golflife.com/dave-pelz-3-foot-putting-circle.
CHAPTER 4: THE BUDDY SYSTEM
“Maybe you’re the problem, do you think?”: You can see for yourself David Letterman’s uncomfortable interview of Lauren Conrad from the Late Show with David Letterman on October 27, 2008, on YouTube. The web response to the interview came from the following sources: Ryan Tate, “David Letterman to Lauren Conrad: ‘Maybe You’re the Problem,’” Gawker.com, October 28, 2008, http://gawker.com/5069699/david-letterman-to-lauren-conrad-maybe-youre-the-problem; Ayman, “Lauren Conrad on David Letterman,” Trendhunter.com, October 30, 2
008, https://www.trendhunter.com/trends/lauren-conrad-interview-david-letterman; and “Video: Letterman Makes Fun of Lauren Conrad & ‘The Hills’ Cast,” Starpulse.com, October 29, 2008, http://www.starpulse.com/video-letterman-makes-fun-of-lauren-conrad-the-hills-cast-1847865350.html. (Warning: these websites may not still be operating or hosting their prior content.)
Not all groups are created equal: My point in bringing up the group approach of Alcoholics Anonymous is to demonstrate the obvious value people can get in working on difficult habits by enlisting a group, illustrated in part by the story of founders Bill W. and Dr. Bob. My knowledge of the details of AA is based on commonly available public sources. These start with AA’s website (aa.org), which includes the Big Book, the Twelve Steps, its archives and history, and its eLibrary.
I first met Erik Seidel when I went off to New York for college. Howard was part of a study group of exceptional poker players in New York, including Erik Seidel, Dan Harrington, Steve Zolotow, and Jason Lester. These players all went on to successful poker careers, including earning seven World Series of Poker bracelets and combined tournament earnings of nearly $18 million—that’s excluding Seidel’s eight bracelets and $32 million; it was a remarkable study pod. I met these players when I visited Howard at the Mayfair Club, where they played backgammon and then poker, the place where they all grew up together as poker players.
