by Jeff Shaara
After a long moment, Casey said, “My government is feeling a considerable sense of unease. We don’t know just how far the Japanese intend to go. Indo-China is not so far away from Australia. We have a lengthy and often indefensible coastline. We would of course require considerable assistance from you both. That is self-evident, I suppose.”
Wood said with a smile, “See? That’s why it was unwise to punish his croquet ball.”
Hull appreciated the levity, Casey nodding with a smile of his own.
Casey said, “Quite so. Cordell, you will relay that to the president, I would hope.”
“Certainly.”
The somber mood settled in again, and Casey said, “Geographically, we are very much alone in the world, and we have to see the Japanese as a threat, no matter their intentions. Forgive me, but nine B-17s parked in the Philippines offer us very little assurance. There have been those in my country, many of them minority politicians, who over the past two years have spoken out about our need for neutrality in the war with Germany. It’s all so very far away, no threat whatsoever, and I have heard so often, ‘What do we care what happens to Europe?’ But now? The Japanese have changed our world. We are very, very afraid.”
Hull set the teacup aside, said, “There are still a great many in the U.S. Congress who claim to speak for their constituencies, and who believe that all we need do is pull down the shades, and all will be well. The infuriating argument the president must endure so often is that we are protected by two great oceans, as though all that water is a perfect barrier against danger. I have heard Stimson say more than once that though the oceans might be barriers, they are also highways. And yet so many people in the U.S. seem to be oblivious to what Hitler could do to us, and now, the Japanese.”
Wood said, “What of this Tojo fellow? He seems a bit of a blast furnace, wouldn’t you say?”
Hull pondered the question. “The Japanese have always presented themselves and their government as a perfect balance. One half is peaceful, friendly, eager to cooperate with us, and with you. The other half is militant, aggressive, angry, and dangerous. Whether in Tokyo with Ambassador Grew or right here with their Ambassador Nomura, it has constantly been suggested that this careful balance could only be upset by us, that it would be our actions that would topple the comfortable peace. I honestly don’t know if they actually believe that. Is it all just a tactic, to keep us hoping that all will be well if we just accept every demand they issue?” He stopped. He knew that Wood had access to the Magic intercepts, but Casey very likely did not. “Despite what the Japanese government will have us believe, if Hideki Tojo is now in control, there is no balance at all. I just don’t know what this means for us, for all three of us.”
Wood set his teacup aside, a cloud of gloom on his face. “We thought that Konoye would keep things going in a more moderate direction, that he could maintain…well, that balance you’re talking about. He might have been too weak to stand up to the military, but at least he seemed to be a voice of reason.”
Casey said, “I’m beginning to believe that when it comes to Japan, there is no ‘reason.’ Tojo has been one of the loudest voices pushing for a war. If the emperor has allowed him to take that post, it means the war faction has won. And that means we are all under threat. What do they want? Are they seeking land? Seaports? Or is it just to extend their borders, plant their flag anywhere they can? Are they mimicking Hitler, or intending to outdo him? God, I hate asking these kinds of questions. The answers, whatever they may be, are terrifying.”
He looked at Wood. “My apologies, Edward. I do not overlook that England has already experienced this war. But that serves as a warning to us all. I said before, my country is very frightened of what will come next, on any day, any week. We are desperate for the kind of protection only you two can provide.”
Hull felt a sinking depression. “I cannot make any pledges. It isn’t my place. I continue to place my hope in communication, that there has to be time for us to talk. There have to be reasonable men somewhere in that country who will insist on reasonable solutions to our differences. I’m beginning to believe that it’s the only hope we have left.”
THE WHITE HOUSE, WASHINGTON, D.C.—WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 22, 1941
“Gentlemen, we have beaten this subject to death, and none of us has the slightest idea what we’re talking about. I didn’t bring you in here to get hard answers—I’m aware there are none. What I was hoping for is something exactly like this.” Roosevelt held up a paper. “Options. Hard-case possibilities. It’s what we need in order to make a plan, a contingency.” He looked at Marshall. “General, who’s the author of this brief?”
Marshall said, “Sir, this is from Lieutenant Colonel Bicknell, from G-2, the intelligence office under General Short, commanding our army force in Hawaii.”
Roosevelt absorbed that. “G-2, Hawaii. I would suppose they’re watching the Japanese pretty closely?”
Stimson said, “Quite. Short is a good fellow, handles things out there pretty well, in concert with the navy.”
“That’s Admiral Kimmel, right?”
“Yes, sir.”
“I assume they can read the Purple codes, that they have access to Magic machines, like they do in the Philippines?”
Stimson looked at Marshall, who said, “Surely they do, Mr. President.”
“All right, General Marshall, please enlighten us as to what your G-2 fellows have concluded about Japanese intentions.”
Marshall said, “Mr. President, Colonel Bicknell suggests, after careful analysis, that the following actions could be taken by the Japanese. One, they will attack Russia, likely their port at Vladivostok. Two, they will add pressure to Indo-China and Thailand, forcing those nations to grant them greater access to naval and air bases, and press them for economic cooperation, which certainly means that the Japanese would take whatever resources are available. Three, they’ll attack the British possessions in the Far East, notably Singapore. Four, they will mobilize to defend themselves against an attack by the United States, in the event we come to the aid of the British. Five, they will simultaneously attack the territories of the British, Dutch, Chinese, and the United States, at whatever points might promise Japan its greatest tactical, strategic, and economic advantages.”
Roosevelt said, “Is this accurate? We have spies in the Japanese government figuring all this out?”
Marshall said, “I cannot offer a guarantee of accuracy. This is intended to be an assessment of possibilities of what the Japanese might do.”
Roosevelt seemed to flash a familiar anger, something Hull had seen often. “In other words, General, who the hell knows what the Japanese intend to do?”
Stimson said, “Mr. President, this simply outlines the most likely paths of action, allowing us to make preparations.”
Roosevelt looked at the others, said, “Thoughts? Opinions? Everybody awake in here?”
The men glanced at each other, and after a long pause, Marshall said, “The attack on Russia is the most likely, in my opinion. That, plus the pressure they can apply to Thailand. The French have already buckled in Indo-China, and the Japanese have established a strong presence there, so they can take whatever they want. Logically, Thailand would be next. It would not be a major military undertaking for the Japanese.”
Roosevelt looked around the room, still impatient. “Anyone else? What about that number three, the possibility of attacks on the British possessions? Churchill is raising holy hell that we’re not doing enough to help them down there. I keep pointing to the Atlantic, telling him how many U-boats we’re sinking. That quiets him down for a half hour or so.”
Marshall said, “If Japan were to attack Singapore, or any other British possession, they would invite a full-scale war with Britain, which we do not feel the Japanese want.”
Roosevelt said, “According to Churchill, the British are stretched pr
etty thin dealing with Hitler, the North Atlantic, North Africa, and God knows what else. I believe him.”
Marshall glanced at Stimson, who said, “It is our intention to send all available power to the assistance of the British, wherever that might be required.”
“You think you might advise me of that when it’s going to happen? And, doesn’t it seem to any of you, especially Secretary Knox, that ‘all available power’ means pulling naval strength away from any possible confrontation with the Japanese?”
Hull could feel the condescension oozing out of Stimson, a trait often shared by Marshall. The words “united front” flashed through his mind.
Stimson said, “Mr. President, we would certainly include you in any discussion of a timetable for assisting the British. We of course do not presently have the arsenal at our disposal to protect the entire world. And, I would point out, sir, that the Japanese possess far less of an arsenal than we do. There simply is no threat in that theater.”
Roosevelt sniffed. “All right, what about the last one, number five?”
Hull spoke up now, surprising the others. “Mr. President, that last possibility means that the Japanese would simultaneously declare war on the U.S., the Dutch, the British, and the Australians. As they have already taken what they want from the French, it seems possible that it is their intention to strike as hard and as quickly as they can, to establish their footholds in those places they intend to occupy. From there, they could possibly spread outward even farther.”
Roosevelt looked at him, his head cocked to one side. “You know something we don’t?”
“I’m sure not, sir. I’ve been studying the same Magic reports you all have. I’ve read what you’ve read about Prime Minister Tojo. Their move southward into Indo-China is not an isolated occurrence, one mission to inhabit one obscure piece of territory. There is certainly a plan at work, and their intentions are far from honorable. From our own point of view, it seems that the Philippines are extremely vulnerable.”
Stimson said, “What the hell do we do about that? Hit them before they hit us? We can’t just start our own war to keep them from starting theirs. Besides, we need to commit as much power as we can to the Atlantic. We can’t have a war in both directions.”
The others seemed to agree, Marshall and Knox still scanning their copies of the report.
After a long pause, Marshall said, “With all due respect, Secretary Hull, we are making moves that will provide significant protection for the Philippines and our islands in the South Pacific. Once the air squadrons are in place, and fully manned, the Japanese will strike us there only at a severe cost to their own cities. I assure you, we have that situation firmly under control.”
Hull heard the condescension in Marshall’s voice. He also knew he had none of the information Marshall was offering. But Hull couldn’t ignore what he continued to learn of the Japanese duplicity with their negotiations, their offers of friendship, and now, the kinds of men who had taken control of their government.
He looked at Roosevelt. “I’m not sure that we’re in control of any part of this.”
Marshall said, “Mr. President, it is our estimate that, with their ongoing deployments and subsequent losses in China, the Japanese would be incapable of any wide-scale assaults until early next year.”
Hull sat back. He had no choice but to accept intelligence that he didn’t have access to.
Roosevelt said to him, “You meeting with Ambassador Nomura anytime soon?”
“Tuesday, sir.”
“Good. It’s likely that we knew about Tojo before he did. Curious what he has to say about that.”
“I’d be surprised if the ambassador says much at all. I’ll go through the usual dance moves with him, but I don’t hold hope for anything of substance, certainly not any significant changes to our relationship.”
Stimson said, “Does he not understand how dangerous things are? He can’t just spread on all that diplomatic butter like it’s the same old show.”
“I suppose I’ll find that out.”
THE CARLTON HOTEL, WASHINGTON, D.C.—TUESDAY, OCTOBER 28, 1941
“Our country has said practically all she can say in the way of expressing of opinions and setting forth our stands. We feel that we have now reached a point where no further positive action can be taken by us except to urge the United States to reconsider her views. We urge therefore that you let it be known to the United States that our country is not in a position to spend much more time discussing this matter.”
He slid the paper back into its envelope with a glance at the Eyes Only stamp. The special courier stood close to one side, waiting patiently, the usual protocol for intercepting the diplomatic traffic sent via the Purple codes. It was Hull’s privilege to be allowed access to Magic intercepts, but he would never be allowed to keep the dispatches in his own possession. Once read, they would return to the intelligence offices.
Hull handed the envelope to the man, who snapped to attention.
“Thank you, Lieutenant. You may leave. I’ve seen what I needed to see.”
“Thank you, Mr. Secretary.”
The man made a tight pivot, moved quickly out of the apartment. What is so secretive about what I just read? Well, of course, it’s not that at all. It’s that we’re reading this stuff in the first place. Maybe one day, that will win. Don’t think on that. You’ll sweat all over the paper.
He could hear the clink of coffee cups, knew Frances was in the next room with two of his staff. Yes, my dear, keep them away from me when it’s Eyes Only, as though they don’t already know that. He thought of the dispatch, had tried to look past the words, to find some sort of clue about just how serious the Japanese were becoming, if their internal warnings or instructions meant any more now than they had before. Is it just the embargo? he thought. Do they want war just because they want war? Yes, fine, Grew is right, we do not understand them. But they are not an entire nation of lunatics, murderers, and suicidal maniacs. They are ruled by an emperor, and everything I know of him tells me he is a soft-spoken, conservative…hell, a gentle man. Surely he still maintains control.
He walked into the next room, all eyes on him. Frances read his silent cue, and removed the cups and saucers, slipping quickly toward the rear of the apartment. He glanced at the clock above his mantel.
“Gentlemen, Ambassador Nomura is due here in ten minutes. I wish each of you to sit in, to make written notes, and beyond that, to keep silent. He has to be coaxed. He is very much the opposite of the German ambassador, who seems intent on stuffing his fist down your throat.”
There were low laughs, not from him.
“Let’s go into the outer room. I’ll tell you where to sit.”
They took positions as he directed, and Hull sat in his usual perch, the thick cushions of the chair embracing him. The two men were assembling their notepads when Hull heard the rap on the outer door. He looked at the younger of the men.
“Mr. Herman, please answer the door.”
The young man responded quickly, made way for Nomura. Hull could see a change in the ambassador’s demeanor, and he stood, the proper formality. Nomura offered the usual bow and Hull said, “Ambassador, welcome. Please be seated. These are my aides, Mr. King, Mr. Herman. I’ve asked them to observe our discussion, if you have no objection.”
Nomura moved to his spot on the sofa, seemed extremely uncomfortable. “I welcome them. Younger men should understand what this world is becoming. I am pleased to see you again, Mr. Secretary. Much has happened since we last spoke.”
Hull thought, I know that. But he doesn’t know I know that. What will he tell me?
“I am pleased to see you as well. Tell me, what is happening with your government? You have a new prime minister, a foreign minister, a new cabinet. That must be very interesting for you.”
Nomura said nothing for a long
moment. He glanced down, then looked up at Hull. “My government continues to be most anxious to reach a mutually beneficial agreement, an understanding that will serve both nations.”
Hull knew the dance had begun. “I am very interested in that as well, Ambassador. I fear we might be losing patience, and that must not happen. The Japanese government must know that any rash move would have immediate consequences. There is no desire for either Great Britain or the United States to pick a fight with Japan. The uniting of all those who feel themselves threatened by Japanese policy is purely defensive. When there is so much gunpowder lying about, he would be a very incautious man who dropped a match on it.”
“I understand your points, Mr. Secretary. There is some concern, however, that the American government’s attitude toward Germany could have dangerous consequences. Your president has been most aggressive in his protests concerning German activity in the Atlantic.”
Roosevelt had just the night before given a fiery speech regarding Germany, which obviously Nomura had heard. Hull had thought the declarations a tad too strong, designed to placate our allies while offering Germany a clear message that the U.S. would not tolerate any actions against shipping near the American coastal waters.
“Ambassador, what do you believe would be Japan’s reaction if the United States and Germany commenced a shooting war in the Atlantic?”
Nomura seemed to digest the question. “Japan would be free to decide her own course of action.”
It was yet another nonanswer from a man who seemed to specialize in them, and Hull thought of the Magic intercept, ached to ask just what was really happening inside the Japanese ministry. But no, he thought, Nomura would have no idea. Nomura said, “Mr. Secretary, have you felt I have been honest with you?”
“Mr. Ambassador, since I took office in 1933, it has been my policy to offer absolute candor and trust in my relationships with the diplomatic heads of every nation on earth. I have also maintained the expectation that those diplomats respond the same way with me and my staff. Of course, there have been disappointments. But I have never wavered from that commitment. That being said, I believe you have attempted to be honest with me. But your government has chosen another path.”
