I think it’s a good thing, because [the Tea Party represents] core Conservatives.… So you’ve got the Republicans against the Conservatives, and they said, “You need to be more Conservative if you’re going to win the elections and get more people.” (Tea Party man, Raleigh)
At the center of their opposition to government is a fear that big government is going to invade their rights and undermine their freedoms: “Our freedoms are getting taken away all the time with more regulations and rules and things we can’t do. And we let it happen, and then all of a sudden we’re not going to have any left” (Tea Party man, Raleigh). They embed the “right to bear arms” in a revisionist history and Constitutionalism.
I think that our freedom is slowly being taken away from us, like with the gun control and I don’t know, just everything. I just fear for our freedom. I don’t want to be like the other countries and have to be told what to do and when to do it. (Tea Party woman, Roanoke)
I think we’re slowly losing our freedom. You know just by—you can’t choose anything, you know when it comes to gun control or anything.… I don’t think they should take the guns away. (Tea Party woman, Roanoke)
There’s talk of the repeal of Stand Your Ground laws and things like that. That’s a diminishing right. (Tea Party man, Raleigh)
For me you know our founders … we had to rise up and we had to defend ourselves and take over this country and who knows if that has to happen again sometime so I don’t want the government—the government already has enough knowledge and stuff about what’s going on in my life so if they want to take away all of our rights, I mean I just feel like we’re Nazi Germany or something. (Tea Party woman, Roanoke)
Support for the NRA and gun rights nearly defines the Tea Party’s consciousness about individual liberties and an encroaching government: more than 80 percent express warm feelings for the NRA. Evangelicals are also overwhelmingly warm toward the pro-gun lobby. The observant Catholic and moderate blocs look more like independents in their thinking on this issue, though the intensity of Tea Party support obscures those differences.
Based on 7,004 interviews conducted for Democracy Corps, July 2013–January 2015.
The Tea Party has become the audience and the troops for Fox News. Fox is the most viewed cable news network, with 1.64 million total prime-time viewers. But the Tea Party leads all other GOP base blocs in their warm, strong embrace of the network: more than 60 percent of the Tea Party bloc is very warm toward Fox, compared to half of the observant Catholics and a third of the Evangelicals and moderates. The Tea Party women shared their enthusiasm in focus groups:3
I absolutely love Bill O’Reilly. (Tea Party woman, Roanoke)
I wish there was more Fox News. (Tea Party woman, Roanoke)
It’s great. (Tea Party man, Raleigh)
The Tea Party men in Raleigh confessed that Fox is the only news station they watch.
It’s the only news channel I watch. (Tea Party man, Raleigh)
It’s the only one I watch. (Tea Party man, Raleigh)
I like it. I’m missing two hours of it. (Tea Party man, Raleigh)
Evangelicals also embrace Fox, and our Evangelical men explained it is the only source for balanced news.
FOX is about the middle. (Evangelical man, Roanoke)
The only one that gives you both sides. (Evangelical man, Roanoke)
I don’t think they’re trying to make the news. I think they’re trying to report the news. It seems like everybody else is trying to make the news. (Evangelical man, Roanoke)
CLIMATE CHANGE
Beliefs about climate change are already a fundamental part of the consciousness of the Republican base, and there is the potential for this issue to become more divisive than any of the other issues facing the country. Just 39 percent of Evangelicals and a quarter of the Tea Party bloc believe humans are causing the Earth to get warmer. By contrast, climate change is unique because about three in five of the observant Catholics and moderates believe humans are playing a destructive role and “we need to begin taking serious measures.” There is potential for real division.
For the Evangelicals and the Tea Party, this is not about how to address a distinct future challenge: it is about faith and values, the role of scientific knowledge, and the value of education and academia. In the focus groups, Evangelicals and Tea Party Republicans are consumed by skepticism about climate science—to the point where they mistrust scientists before they begin to speak.
Based on 7,004 interviews conducted for Democracy Corps, July 2013–January 2015.
Well, the scientific community in general is minimizing or marginalizing people that are bringing up doubts.… You can look in biology, you can look in geology, you can look in chemistry, and you can see that the theory doesn’t hold up. And yet the scientific world won’t acknowledge that. And if you do say it, and you’re a PhD candidate, you can be denied your PhD. You can be denied your master’s degree. (Evangelical woman, Colorado Springs)
I think that we’re being fed a lot of misinformation. (Evangelical woman, Colorado Springs)
Just like the whole evolution-creation thing … I think we waste a lot of time arguing with the science. I think we would all agree that it’s the policy that we don’t agree with.… So that seems to be where we’re—we’re losing the fight because we’re fighting the science. And you can’t fight the science. (Evangelical man, Roanoke)
I wonder if they don’t put that out there to distract you. (Tea Party woman, Roanoke)
Back in the 70s, there were articles out there that another ice age was coming, and that’s just 30 years ago. So now all the articles say, “Hey, it’s getting warmer.” Well they’ve already proven the past 12 years it hasn’t gotten warmer. (Tea Party man, Raleigh)
You could have 12 scientists on this side talking all about global warming, and you can get 12 scientists that will have the complete opposite. So you’re listening and you just don’t know. (Tea Party man, Raleigh)
If you look, there was an ice age. So it used to be really, really, really cold, and inevitably it’s got to warm up eventually. It can’t stay that cold all over forever. And eventually—I think that nature is in cycles. (Tea Party man, Raleigh)
Tea Party Republicans, in particular, are concerned that climate science is another way to force regulations on individuals and businesses.
I think I saw somewhere we have like 100-plus regulations added every day. (Tea Party man, Raleigh)
The politicians and those people—celebrities. Most of them may or may not believe it, but it’s an opportunity for them to gain power, make money, push their agenda. They want to regulate everything … they want to control it, so this is a great excuse for them to gain that control. And if the world were covered in ice right now, they’d find another reason to gain control. (Tea Party man, Raleigh)
They fear the subsequent costs—both to consumers and taxpayers.
The government will spend you know hundreds of thousands of dollars to check out some bird you know, that’s fading away or something. Don’t worry about that bird. Worry about the people you know. (Tea Party woman, Roanoke)
I mean I think we have to … you know and try to make sure that we’re recycling and taking care of our resources … but not at the cost of the jobs and our economy. I mean if we regulate down … to zero emissions … but then a car costs … 200,000 dollars, well then we can’t afford it all right. (Tea Party woman, Roanoke)
And all those regulations are putting companies out of business and like you’re saying, making products too expensive. (Tea Party woman, Roanoke)
Many think that climate change is natural or divine providence and would rather leave decisions about the future of the planet to God.
Planet’s been here for millions of years. Temperatures have fluctuated many times. And man is—to think that we could have something to do with changing the weather is giving ourselves way too much credit. (Evangelical woman, Colorado Springs)
Like you said,
regardless if we’re here or if we smoke or if we fire this or if we drive our SUVs or if we all drive hybrids and electric cars, the climate is going to change whichever way God says it’s going to change. (Tea party man, Raleigh)
If you live next to the ocean, your house is going to get messed up. The seawater does rise when it gets warmer. Ice caps melt when it gets hotter. It’s scientific fact and it just leads you down the wrong path, like that’s something that’s bad or not right or not natural, when it’s just nature doing its thing. (Tea Party man, Raleigh)
I agree we’re warming up slowly, but we have nothing to do with it. It’s going to happen if there were no humans or if we were full of humans. It’s a natural cycle of nature. (Tea Party man, Raleigh)
Mother Nature has a way of taking care of herself. (Tea Party woman, Roanoke)
“I CAN’T SELL MY KIDS ON THIS PARTY”
The Republican base is deeply divided. Just talk to any persuasion of base voter—the party is a mess.
The GOP is dominated by its Evangelical and Tea Party core, committed to faith, family, and country, the right to life, and small-government conservatism. They are horrified by spending, taxes, and dependence that Democrats expand to engender more political support.
A large majority of observant Catholics, which includes a healthy dose of Catholics and mainline Protestants, disagree with those in their party who say government should not care for the needy and join the moderate bloc in accepting science as the arbiter on global climate change. But those views are now heresy and not open for negotiation among the major Evangelical and Tea Party sections of the party.
For Evangelicals, homosexuality is an abomination, and opposition to gay marriage is a dominant dynamic in the consciousness of most Republican voters. Moderates, on the other hand, are more warm than cool toward gay marriage and closer to embracing it as right. Tea Party Republicans offer a whole range of views on gay marriage, as reflected in their crisp reactions below.4
Who cares? (Tea Party woman, Roanoke)
I don’t want the government telling me who I’m sleeping with or whatever in my bedroom, so I just don’t think it’s the government’s business. (Tea Party woman, Roanoke)
It’s fine with me. (Tea Party woman, Roanoke)
I think it’s not important. I mean either way we have so many bigger issues to worry about. (Tea Party woman, Roanoke)
It doesn’t hurt anybody. (Tea Party woman, Roanoke)
I don’t think the government has any say in it.… I personally don’t agree with gay marriage, but I don’t think the government should say who can get married and who can’t. It’s not their business. (Tea Party man, Raleigh)
They’ve got a lot more to deal with than that. (Tea Party man, Raleigh)
The moderates are a quarter of the base and are acutely aware of being a minority in a party that does not value voters who are only fiscally conservative. As a result, less than half are straight-ticket voters. Their biggest differences surround social issues—acceptance of gay marriage first and foremost though also contraception, Planned Parenthood, and abortion. They are animated on the gay marriage issue because they know how central this is to the conservative mainstream:
My idea is if they’re going to do it, let them do it. (moderate man, Colorado)
From a legal standpoint I don’t understand why it’s a debate because I think that gay people should actually be allowed to get married.… [First] of all every argument I’ve heard against it has been based on religion and if our government is truly separate from religion then our government shouldn’t be able to make laws based on religious beliefs. (moderate woman, Raleigh)
It just doesn’t really make any sense why they shouldn’t be allowed to … have that kind of special bond. (moderate woman, Raleigh)
I mean they’re [together anyway]. You know? The world is going to change anyway. And it is changing anyway every day. (moderate woman, Raleigh)
That’s what I don’t understand, is like they have houses together and they do everything that a married couple would do together and I just don’t understand. (moderate woman, Raleigh)
The first gay divorce was filed in Massachusetts―Good, that’s what I like. I’d like them to have the same opportunity we have. (moderate man, Colorado)
Doesn’t hurt me. It doesn’t affect my life. (moderate man, Colorado)
I don’t understand why you can regulate what the hell I think and do. This is a free fricken country. There’s been homosexuals since the Roman times and before. What the hell are you scared of them? Are you scared they’re going to get you? Are you? Are you scared they’re going to get your kids? (moderate man, Colorado)
Many of them applaud Planned Parenthood, even though they look around the room first to see if there are others who share their experience and views.
I think it’s necessary for a lot of different reasons and not saying just abortion, people associated with abortion but I think it does so much more than that they don’t get credit for. (moderate woman, Raleigh)
I think Planned Parenthood is great and I think it always has been, just I mean it just offers people options it offers a lot of education. (moderate woman, Raleigh)
The moderates are in a different country than the Tea Party and Evangelical blocs when it comes to immigration. In our groups, they started the conversation with the implausibility of sending the undocumented home:
I mean I don’t think it’s feasible to say, send everybody home. (moderate woman, Raleigh)
I mean it’s a huge struggle to get here illegally so I think if they are here illegally … they are not leaving. And that means they are going to be putting a toll on our roads … taking up space in classrooms … so it would be nice if they were legal and they actually could be contributing to that tax circle.… I just think getting them a path to that would be great. (moderate woman, Raleigh)
In contrast to most of the Republican base, many moderates spoke positively about immigrants as good for the country and the economy. They described immigrants as people with good work values who are able to contribute, not as people looking to become dependent.
I need more customers. I need more people to sell things to. I need more people to do business with. And I can see that these people are potential customers. And the jobs they did … we won’t do.… We just flat won’t do it.… We don’t have some of the work ethic they have.… I want it to all be legal.… I don’t mind that they’re customers. They can pay taxes. (moderate man, Colorado)
Many immigrants come into our country do better than we do … they don’t complain. (moderate man, Colorado)
I feel like if we’re not going to embrace some sort of path to citizenship we’re going to see a cost of a lot of services go up. (moderate woman, Raleigh)
And they work hard and they actually realize the American dream. And a lot of us Americans complain, we won’t do what we think we’ll do. (moderate man, Colorado)
When we asked the moderates about scientists, the first words that came to mind included “respected” and “smart.” Although some are doubtful about climate change, they do not reject science offhand; rather, those skeptics explain that they simply do not know enough to decide whom to believe: “I’m not smart enough to say [climate scientists are] full of shit.… But I am smart enough to know I need to get more information before I say anyone’s full of shit. I do know that” (moderate man, Colorado). They were not aware at the time that many climate deniers would use this line to escape being pressed on the issue.
Many of the moderates seem comfortable with regulation of carbon pollution and open to the idea that climate change is one area where government ought to do more.
I’m glad we’re starting to do [more on] energy standards, I wish it was higher.… I’m glad that we’re seeing more efficient cars. I’m glad they passed that to where in 2015, we have to have cars that run more efficiently. (moderate man, Colorado)
Watching landfill and watching vehicle emissions, watching what
we’re pumping into our rivers, that’s very, very smart, period. Regardless of climate change. (moderate man, Colorado)
I mean, that’s just part of good stewardship of the earth that we’ve been given. And I think that you find a lot of Republicans will feel that way too because a lot of Republicans hunt. They’re very sensitive to what the environment does to the hunting, you know, the changes that they see and anything like that. (moderate man, Colorado)
The moderates, like other base Republicans, think government is “waste,” “inefficient,” “regulations,” and “red tape.” They believe their taxes are too high and the Republican Party should work to make the government more fiscally prudent and effective. But when they see all of the polarization and dysfunction in Washington, they think their own party has taken the lead. They resent the polarization that says “you have to be one side or the other” and keeps the country from getting to “some middle ground” and “what could be good for everybody” (moderate woman, Raleigh).
Everything seems very divided and angry. (moderate woman, Raleigh)
They’ve been holding everything up in Congress lately. Like, the Democrats proposed this but Republicans just say no. (moderate woman, Raleigh)
I feel like there’s a whole lot of talk and not a whole lot of action that just keeps tying everybody up and just this constant circle of just kind of anger and you can’t get through it. (moderate woman, Raleigh)
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