Despite my ongoing commentary on the tech here, I’ve never answered the question about the most fundamental innovation of the whole series. Just how realistic is rejuvenation therapy?
Such rejuvenation is better and worse than real. It is inevitable.
Some of you will live long enough that, as with Ben Wilson, the Dash of our world will figure out how to keep you younger long enough to figure out how to keep you young. So now, as my connection to Dash in her distant alternity fades, I channel her wisdom one last time.
You have all the time in the world.
And not a moment to lose.
—Marc Stiegler, March 5, 2020
Director’s Cut: The Deleted Economics Discussions
Deleted Scene from Chapter 1:
Replaces from: Jerry whispered back, “True but not relevant. I’ll explain later.”
Jerry whispered, “Right. When there’s inflation, they just hold the amount of currency constant and the smart contracting system embedded in the blockchain auctions off zero-coupon bonds, kinda like American Treasuries. The auction prices carry an interest rate that’s higher than inflation to temporarily remove currency from circulation. When things work really well—not necessary but nice when it happens—the deflation that follows the inflation starts as these bonds expire and return their currency, so less currency needs to be created.”
Micky nodded as if he understood, which he sorta did.
Erika had moved on. “The difficulty with these adjustments is, of course, knowing about the deflation or inflation in the first place. The first mechanism implemented in SmartCoin to measure inflation was simply to take the median size of recent SmartCoin transactions and watch its movement.”
Someone close to the podium raised a hand. “Wouldn’t that be easy to manipulate? I mean, if you wanted to increase the amount of currency in your holding, you could just make a deal with a friend to computer-generate millions of microtransfers, artificially lowering the median and triggering the creation of more currency.”
Micky shook his head. “Ouch. What a mess that would make.”
Jerry chuckled in disagreement. “She’s gonna whack him a good one.”
But Erika did not whack anyone. She acknowledged the student good-naturedly. “Good question. Manipulation of the inflation metric is the fundamental issue in the Oracle problem, but it is not quite as easy as that to cause trouble. Can anyone tell me why?”
Jerry jumped to his feet waving his hand. “Transaction fees.”
The doctor brought her hands together in a silent clapping gesture. “Exactly. Unlike the early crypto-currencies, like BitCoin, in which digital coin mining paid for maintenance of the blockchain, SmartCoin uses transaction fees. Each SmartCoin transfer generates a micropayment to the blockchain service providers. The manipulators find themselves paying all the costs of their attack while the benefits are distributed to all the currency holders.”
After checking the crowd for additional questions, she clapped louder, her eyes gleaming. “Okay, then! Let’s dive into the math!”
End of Scene
Chapter Two Opening Scene:
The sociology of economic collapse has provided generations of economics students rich opportunities for Ph.D. dissertations.
It starts, of course, with a bubble. Traders wildly overprice some class of assets, such as real estate (the 2008 Great Recession), corporate stocks (1929 Great Depression), golf course memberships (Japan 2002), or tulips (Dutch tulip mania, 1637). The price of the asset keeps going up and up, and because it keeps going up and up, people conclude it will always go up, so they buy more, forcing the price up and up and even further up.
The Great Crash was a little different from this general outline. It was based, not on overpriced real estate or stock, but rather on overvalued government debt. When Greece entered the 2008 fiscal nightmare known to Greeks as the Crisis, the government had a debt-to-GDP ratio of 126%, well into dangerous territory though not truly exceptional by the standards of southern Europe. After years of effort to bring the debt under control and rebuild the economy, the ratio had fallen, by 2017, up to 179%. The world of finance accepted this new normal and went back to financing Greek debt at the low interest rates once reserved for countries with adult supervision.
Japan provided an even more dangerous lesson. In its desperate effort to spend its way out of the Lost Decade, the government ran up debts capable of astonishing the most sanguine of analysts. By 2017, Japan had achieved a debt to GDP ratio of 236%, a remarkable world record even in an area of endeavor where world leaders strove vigorously to outcompete one another. Despite this extraordinary overhang, interest rates on Japanese government bonds remained low.
With examples like these, the governments of Western civilization eventually saw the opportunity to bribe their populations with a new wave of spending so vast it once would have seemed preposterous. Years before people started gathering in Lafayette Park, the median debt/GDP ratio in western civilization had neared 500%.
The Rubola plagues had amplified the problem to even greater proportions. In the United States, where almost thirty million people had perished, millions of houses were now owned by the dead. The inheritors of these properties found no buyers. The real estate market practically ceased to exist, as it was already reeling from the crash in property values in California that presaged the plagues, when the wealthy fled the state’s hunger for civil forfeitures. Post-plague real estate sellers abounded, buyers barely existed.
And as government spending rose to deal with diverse plague-related disasters, its revenues fell, since the dead did not pay taxes any more than they made mortgage payments.
The Great Crash should have come months, years, or even decades earlier. The bubble had been growing for a very long time indeed, yet the good times had continued like a fuel tanker driven by a wily coyote, floating on the breeze until the day someone noticed the absence of ground beneath and it fell to an explosive end.
All of which led to the key question: what force causes a bubble to burst? Why do people suddenly and dramatically start dumping the goods they’d so recently and eagerly acquired?
Starts from: Lindsey Postrel, the owner/editor/operator of the Cogent News media site…
Ships of the Archipelagos
The BrainTrust main fleet, off the coast of San Francisco
Argus: Manufacturing ship specializing in manufacture of isle ships, but performing diverse manufacturing tasks including the manufacture of rocket boosters for SpaceR.
BTU: Ship hosting BrainTrust University, also known as BTU
Chiron: Medical ship catering to medical tourists, i.e., people needing medical care who want to avoid either the long lines or the high costs of Western countries. One whole deck is now devoted to Dash’s rejuvenation patients
Dreams Come True: Isle ship filled with startup companies
Elysian Fields: Tourist ship, also known as the party boat
Eos: New isle ship, under construction, primarily residential, being built by the partnership of Gina Toscano and Dawn Rainer
FB Alpha and Beta: Two of the original four BrainTrust isle ships, mainly hosting FB employees but also leasing space to other companies
GPlex I and II: Two of the original four BrainTrust isle ships, mainly hosting GPlex employees but also leasing space to other companies
GPlex III: GPlex isle ship filled with compute servers
GS Prime: Goldman Sachs financial services ship, mainly hosting GS employees but also leasing space to other financial services companies
GSDC: Goldman Sachs Data Center ship
Haven: Residential isle ship built by billionaires for billionaires
Heinlein: Modified isle ship used as launch pad for SpaceR rockets. Kept at a safe distance from the main fleet, often moves closer to the equator for launches
Helios: Manufacturing ship belonging to SpaceR, primarily tasked with the manufacture of Kestrel Titans
Hephaestus: Factory ship wher
e operations involving toxic and explosive materials take place. Nuclear reactors are built here. The ship is kept at a safe distance from the main archipelago
Warenhaus: Logistics ship which also contains a silicon chip foundry
Wells Morgan: Joint venture of Wells Fargo and J.P. Morgan, hosting diverse financial services companies
The Fuxing fleet/archipelago stationed at the intersection of territorial claims of China, Taiwan, and the Philippines
Aegis: Stealth isle ship designed for fleet defense
Mount Helicon: School and residential ship
Taixue: School and residential ship, the flagship, the first home of new students, employees, and families from around the South China Sea
Zhaozhou: Manufacturing ship
The Prometheus fleet/archipelago, stationed off the coasts of Nigeria and Benin, a few miles south of the Benin capital of Porto Novo
Archimedes: Manufacturing ship
Mount Parnassus: School and residential ship, the flagship
Alcyone: Large submarine used to deliver highly sensitive large cargoes at high speed, such as the vaccine for the Red Rubola plague. Also able to perform as a seaborne emergency bunker in case of an extinction-level event
The New Medina fleet/archipelago, southwest of Prometheus
First Chance: the first mini-isle ship, barely seaworthy, built by Palestinian refugees led by Diab
Second Chance: prototype of a new generation of smaller, cheaper isle ships, the new home of the Palestinians
Aceso and Aceso II: mini-isle ship customized for the manufacture of pharmaceuticals. Aceso served Europe during the Sky Rubola plague, Aceso II served the Middle East
Cast of Characters
Aar Singh: BrainTrust peacekeeper, a Sikh and longtime partner of Wolf Griffin
Abshir: Somali twenty-something, cousin of Diric
Ainsworth: Fleet Captain Graysen Ainsworth, Fleet Captain of the Fuxing fleet
Alex Turner: Chief Engineer of the Argus
Amanda Copeland: Director of the Chiron medical department, current Chairman of the BrainTrust Consortium, Dash’s supervisor
Astri Dewi: Dash’s cousin who died during the UVR Rubola plague
Beck: Admiral Edwin Beck of the US Navy, in charge of the fleet dedicated to dealing with the BrainTrust
Ben Wilson: Aging venture capitalist, given an extra three years of life by one of Dash’s early rejuvenation experiments
Brandy: SpaceR boss of launch operations, and a key player in the theft of SpaceR’s equipment from SpaceR’s Hawthorne manufacturing plant so it could be brought to SpaceR’s new plant on the BrainTrust, best spaceplane pilot in the fleet, who claimed an FBI spacecraft as a war prize and landed it in Benin
Chance Dixon: Former intern for Dash, Doctor of Medicine, Mixed Martial Arts expert, co-founder of MedBays by Dash, one of only two people who know how to do rejuvenation therapy
Chen Ying: Son of the Chinese Politburo, now a Politburo member since his parents died of Sky Rubola, world-class expert on programming deep-sea mining bots, student on the Taixue
Ciara Thornhill: Mission Commander for the Prometheus fleet, lead researcher dedicated to unraveling the mysteries of the Baotong villagers, daughter of Lenora
Colin Wheeler: BrainTrust resident
Craig Lewis: VP for Accel Corp responsible for generating explosive growth in users of Accel after adoption by the BrainTrust
Darron: Chief Interrogator for the Chief Advisor, responsible for the deaths of two kidnappers hired by the Premier during strict interrogation
Dash: Dr. Dyah Ambarawati, medical researcher, polymath, inventor of rejuvenation, Starry Night cell sat system, advanced nuclear reactors, and leader of the team that developed the cures for the Rubola plagues
Dawn Rainer: Head of the Rainer social media conglomerate, founder with Gina Toscano of an isle ship manufacturing enterprise, investor in the vaccines against the Rubola plagues. Daughter of Anne Rainer who died undergoing rejuvenation therapy
Diab: Palestinian engineer and leader of the refugees who built the mini-isle ship First Chance, leader of the New Medina archipelago built around the Second Chance
Dino Longoria: Hollywood mogul, producer/director of action adventure featuring frenetic usage of Blue party tropes though he is secretly a Red party advocate
Diric: Somali teenager, pirate, student on the Mount Parnassus, cousin of Abshir, co-pilot for Ping, drone copter swarm wrangler
Dmitri Mikhailov: Russian oligarch residing on the Haven. Investor in the Rubola cures, world’s foremost weapons supplier, friend of the Premier of the Russian Union, survivor of an assassination attempt by the Premier of the Russian Union
Drew Moreno: Marine major, old friend of Wolf Griffin, Border Patrol commander responsible for patrolling the Wall, responsible for orchestrating the destruction of the Wall during the Black Rubola, recalled to active duty to protect the President for Life and the Chief Advisor
Ekon: Imam Ekon, leader of the Islamic State of Nigeria, dictator of Nigeria
Erika Everest: The person who solved the Oracle Problem that enabled her to develop the algorithm used by SmartCoin to eliminate the Keynesian boom/bust cycle
Fan Hui: Liu Fan Hui, daughter of the Chinese Politburo, student on the Taixue, one of the founding investors in Oceanic Mining, the first billion dollar corporation on the Fuxing fleet, now the number two member of the Standing Committee after the deaths of her parents and most of the rest of the Politburo of Sky Rubola
Gao: Chinese Air Force Captain and squadron commander stationed outside Shanghai
Gary Schott: Employee of SpaceR at the Hawthorne rocket factory who moved to the BrainTrust with SpaceR
Gina Toscano: Wife of Matt Toscano, Vogue model, investor in the vaccines for the Rubola plagues, founder of an isle ship manufacturing corporation with Dawn Rainer
Gleb: Bodyguard for Dmitri, BrainTrust prisoner for an assassination attempt, former member of Spetsnatz, Security Chief for the Prometheus waypoint town of Djeregbe
Guang Jian: Son of the third member of the Chinese Standing Committee, ex-student on the Taixue, ex-boyfriend of Fan Hui
Han Chunlan: Captain of the Chinese cruiser Renhai stationed near the Fuxing
Hart Baddeley: Security Chief for the Fuxing
Ivy: ex-wife of the Chief Advisor, business partner with Dawn Rainer and Gina Toscano, operator of a very upscale jewelry store on the Haven
Jam: Pakistani commando, peacekeeper on the BrainTrust, Expedition Commander for the Fuxing fleet, BFF of Ping and Dash, rescuer of the villagers of Baotong, assigned by Joshua Pickett to control Ping’s most ferocious inclinations, secret agent within Khalid’s plague engineering cabal
Jason Garrett: resident of Blyton in eastern California, trainer of law enforcement officers in firearms handling, staunch Red party supporter, despises Hollywood and its endless stream of politically correct morally bankrupt movies
Jim Caplan: Dr. James Caplan, B.S. University of Tennessee, Ph.D. University of Virginia in cognitive psychology and psycholinguistics, early career Thoughtware Inc., Behavior Science Research Inc., cofounder of Accel Corp with Lenora Thornhill and her husband. Developer of the algorithms underpinning both the Accel Educational Framework and the Accel Testing App
Jonathan Kuffman: Resident water-well driller for the town of Selman in northern Arizona, husband of Melissa Kuffman
Joshua Pickett: BrainTrust mediator, stationed on the Chiron and then the Haven. Responsible for Ping’s initiative to create property titles throughout Benin
Julissa: Hukou peasant girl, student with the Taixue, serving as interpreter and companion for Expedition Commander Jam in China, then serving as copter pilot for Fan Hui
Jun Laquan: Hukou peasant boy, student on the Taixue, inventor of the scuba bot Jacques co-founder of Oceanic Mining
Karen Molina: cantankerous old survivalist prepper in Selman Arizona
Keenan Stull: Goldman Sachs financier, investor in the cures for
the Rubola vaccines, Harvard graduate who spent many years in derivatives trading, expert in development of exotic financial smart contracts. Works for Larry Winters
Khalid: Mastermind behind the Rubola Plagues
Kingsley Okafor: child math prodigy found in western Nigeria, given accelerated immersive training focused on math by Ciara Thornhill
Kuo Lim: Baotong villager, husband of Shu Shi, father of missing daughter Liling
Larry Winters: CEO of GS, Keenan Stull’s boss
Lambert: Lieutenant Jeremy Lambert, adjutant for Admiral Beck
Lenora Thornhill: Mission Commander for the Fuxing fleet, cofounder of Accel, mother of Ciara
Levinsky: Captain Levinsky, commander of an Israeli patrol boat tasked with ensuring Palestinians do not violate the limits on their fishing rights, recipient from Captain Samuels of the cure for Red Rubola for Israel
Lindsey Postrel: Owner/editor of Cogent News who broke the story on California’s plans to run civil forfeiture schemes on all millionaires
Marcos Ford: Peacekeeper for the Prometheus Fleet, reports to Ping
Matthew Toscano: CEO of SpaceR, husband of Gina Toscano, leader who saw to the creation of the Starry Night cell phone satellite network, creator of the Global Express suborbital transport network, lead contractor developing the countermeasures for Sky Rubola
Melissa Kuffman: nurse, enthusiastic Blue political supporter, wife of Jonathan Kuffman
Nuan: Elder and unofficial leader of the village of Baotong, councilor for Fan Hui on social and political matters in western China
Oziegbe: gifted leader of development projects who came from Senegal by way of Benin to the BrainTrust, manager of the development of next generation low cost isle ships, manager who built the BrainTrust pharmaceutical plant on the California Peninsula in Mexico
Braintrust- Requiem Page 40
