Hanlon’s Razor is a great tool for overcoming this fallacy, one we all fall into at one time or another.
As useful as it can be, it is, however, important not to overthink this model. Hanlon’s Razor is meant to help us perceive stupidity or error, and their inadvertent consequences. It says that of all possible motives behind an action, the ones that require the least amount of energy to execute (such as ignorance or laziness) are more likely to occur than one that requires active malice.
Conclusion
Ultimately, Hanlon’s Razor demonstrates that there are fewer true villains than you might suppose—what people are is human, and like you, all humans make mistakes and fall into traps of laziness, bad thinking, and bad incentives. Our lives are easier, better, and more effective when we recognize this truth and act accordingly. — Sidebar: The Devil Fallacy
Acknowledgements
I’m forever indebted to Charlie Munger, Peter Kaufman, Warren Buffett, and Peter Bevelin, who, to varying degrees, started me down the path of multidisciplinary thinking. I owe them a huge debt of gratitude. While I’ve sought wisdom from the world, it’s a journey that one starts and never completes.
When I first started learning about multidisciplinary thinking there was no source of collected wisdom—no place where I could find the big ideas from multiple disciplines in one place. This book, and indeed, this series, is meant to bring some of the big invariant ideas into the world to help us better understand the world we live in and how it interconnects. These pages are filled with ideas from many great minds. It’s only fair to point out that any idea you found in this book comes from someone else.
This book would not be here without the work and talents of Rhiannon Beaubien, Morgwn Rimel, Marcia Mihotich, and Garvin Hirt.
I have many friends to thank for reading the manuscript and offering thoughtful and critical feedback for which I’m grateful. Thank you Zachary Smith, Devon Anderson, Jeff Annello, Simon Hørup Eskildsen, Laurence Endersen, and Paul Ciampa.
I want to thank Néna Rawdah for helping edit this from a manuscript into a book.
I also want to thank my kids, William and Mackenzie, who, without knowing it, have provided me with a renewed sense of curiosity and understanding. This book is for you.
I hope you pull this book off your shelf whenever you’re stuck or need inspiration in understanding our world. It’s designed to be a reference book of big ideas but also a book that pulls you in aesthetically through the intersection of design and content.
Shane
Picture Credits
In order of appearance:
1. Heracles: Sergej Razvodovskij/Shutterstock.com
2. Bloodletting: Aldobrandino of Siena, Li Livres dou Santé (Blood letting), late 13th Century/Wikipedia
3. Old map: Fra Maura (original), W. Fraser (this reproduction), World Map, 1450 (original), 1806 (this reproduction)/Wikipedia
4. Sykes-Picot line: Royal Geographical Society, Mark Sykes and Francois Georges-Picot, Sykes-Picot Line, 1916/Wikipedia
5. City Scene: George Bellows, Cliff Dwellers, 1913/Wikipedia
6. Sylvie and Bruno: Harry Furniss, Sylvie and Bruno Concluded, 1893/Wikipedia
7. Tenzing Norgay: Edmund Hillary, Tenzing Norgay on the Summit of Mount Everest, 1953/Royal Geographical Society
8. Car/mechanic: ESB Professional/Shutterstock.com
9. Elizabeth I: Anonymous, Queen Elizabeth I of England in Coronation Robes, c.1600/Wikipedia
10. Lebron James: Jason Miller, Lebron James at Cleveland Cavaliers Media Day, 2017/Getty Images Sport
11. Woody Allen: Mike Marsland, ‘Cafe Society’ Photocall - The 69th Annual Cannes Film Festival, 2016/WireImage
12. Archduke car: Stefan97, Heeresgeschichtliches Museum Wien Attentat in Sarajevo Auto, 2017/Wikipedia
13. Bacteria: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Klebsiella pneumoniae Bacteria, 2014/Wikipedia
14. Cleopatra: William Wetmore Story, Cleopatra, 1878/Wikipedia
15. Hands shaking: prince_apple/Shutterstock.com
16. Sabotage poster: Artist unknown from Office for Emergency Management, Sabotage Can Outweigh Production, 1941-1945/Wikipedia
17. French poster: Artist unknown in the UK, La liberté pour la France … les libertés pour les Français, 1940/Wikipedia
18. Sherlock Holmes: Sidney Paget, A Scandal in Bohemia, 1891/Wikipedia
19. Lucky Strike poster: American Tabaco Company, To keep a slender figure No one can deny, 1929/thesocietypages.org
20. Nightingale chart: Florence Nightingale, Diagram of the causes of mortality in the army in the East, 1858/Wikipedia
21. Andromeda Galaxy: NASA/JPL-Caltech, Andromeda Galaxy, 2017/NASA website
22. Computer: Rik Myslewski, Ibm pcjr with display, 2014/Wikipedia
23. Rome: Thomas Cole, Destruction from The Course of Empire, 1836/Wikipedia
24. B59 sub: US Navy, Soviet b-59 submarine, 1962/Wikipedia
Endnotes
Preface
1
Feynman, Richard.
The Pleasure of Finding Things Out: The Best Short Works of Richard P. Feynman. New York: Perseus Publishing, 1999.
Introduction
1
Munger, Charles.
Worldly Wisdom Revisited. Lecture and dialogue presented at Stanford Law School, Stanford, CA, December 29, 1997.
2
Parrish, Shane.
Peter Bevelin on Seeking Wisdom, Mental Models, Learning, and a Lot More. Farnam Street Blog. Retrieved from: https://www.fs.blog/2016/10/peter-bevelin-seeking-wisdom-mental-models/
3
Graves, Robert.
The Greek Myths. The Folio Society: London, 1996 (first published in 1955)
4
Bulfinch, Thomas.
The Golden Age of Myth and Legend. UK: Wordsworth Editions, 1993.
5
Wallace, David Foster,
This Is Water: Some Thoughts, Delivered on a Significant Occasion, about Living a Compassionate Life.
6
Benoit, Andy,
“The Case for the…Broncos.” Sports Illustrated, January 13, 2014.
7
Schlender, Brent.
“The Bill and Warren Show.“ Fortune, July 20, 1998. Retrieved from: http://archive.fortune.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/1998/07/20/245683/index.html
8
Munger, Charlie.
“A Lesson on Elementary, Worldly Wisdom As It Relates to Investment Management & Business.” Lecture to USC Business School, 1994. Retrieved from: https://old.ycombinator.com/munger.html
9
De Botton, Alain, and Diyala Muir.
“How To Make a Decision.” The School of Life production. Retrieved from: https://youtu.be/okdsAZUTJ94
10
Munger, Charles.
Poor Charlie’s Almanack.
Peter D. Kaufman ed. Missouri: Walsworth Publishing Company, 2005.
11
Munger, Charlie.
Ibid.
12
Simon, Herbert A.
Models of My Life. Cambridge: MIT Press, 1996
The Map is not the Territory
1
Lawrence, D.H.
Study of Thomas Hardy. Phoenix: The Posthumous Papers of D.H. Lawrence, Edward McDonald, ed. London: William Heinemann, 1936.
2
Korzybski, Alfred.
Science and Sanity.
New York: Institute of General Semantics, 1933.
3
Hardin, Garrett.
The Tragedy of the Commons, Science, 13 December 1968, vol. 162, pp. 1243-48
4
Ostrom, Elinor.
Governing the Commons: The Evolution of Institutions for Collective Action. UK: Cambridge University Press, 1990.
5
Box, George E P.
Ibid.
6
Nassar, Issam.
Early Local Photography in Palestine: The Legacy of Karime
h Abbud. Jerusalem Quarterly. Issue 46, Summer 2011.
7
Mrowat, Ahmed.
Karimeh Abbud: Early Woman Photographer. Jerusalem Quarterly. Issue 31, Summer 2007.
8
Thrower, Norman J.W.
Maps and Civilization: Cartography in Culture and Society. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1999.
9
MacMillan, Margaret.
The Uses and Abuses of History. Toronto: Penguin, 2008.
10
An excellent analysis of the division of the Middle East after World War I can be found in: MacMillan, Margaret. Paris 1919: Six Months that Changed the World. New York: Random House, 2001.
11
Thrower, Norman J.W.
Ibid.
12
Jacobs, Jane.
The Death and Life of Great American Cities. New York: Vintage Books, 1992. (Original published 1961). Page 438.
13
Hand, David J.
Wonderful Examples, but Let’s not Close Our Eyes. Statist. Sci. 29 (2014), no. 1, 98--100. doi:10.1214/13-STS446
Circle of Competence
1
Watson, Thomas J., and Peter Petrie. Father, Son, & Co.: My Life at IBM and Beyond. New York: Random House, 2013.
2
Sun Tzu.
The Art of War: With Study Guide. New York: Hachette Book Group, 2015.
3
Pierce, Robert.
“Tenzing Norgay Sherpa.” From Tenzing Norgay Adventures website. Retrieved from: http://www.tenzing-norgay.com/pages/tenzingnorgaysherpa.html
4
Roberts, David.
“Everest 1953: First Footsteps - Sir Edmund Hillary and Tenzing Norgay.” NationalGeographic.com. Retrieved from: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/adventure/features/everest/sir-edmund-hillary-tenzing-norgay-1953/
5
Schaffer, Grayson.
“The Disposable Man: A Western History of Sherpas on Everest.” Outside Online, July 10, 2013. Retrieved from: https://www.outsideonline.com/1928326/disposable-man-western-history-sherpas-everest
6
Pope, Alexander.
“An Essay On Criticism.” Poetry Foundation, n. d. Retrieved from: https://www.poetryfoundation.org/articles/69379/an-essay-on-criticism
7
Gawande, Atul.
“Personal Best,” The New Yorker, October 3, 2011. Retrieved from: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2011/10/03/personal-best (Accessed January 23, 2018)
8
Part of the Circle of Competence means that you know when you’re not the best person to make the decision and you can allow someone else with a comparative advantage in this area to make the decision.
9
Tudor, Elizabeth.
“Wordes Spoken by the Queene to the Lordes.” Speech to members of the House of Lords, Hatfield, November 20, 1558. National Archives. Retrieved from: http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/education/resources/elizabeth-monarchy/elizabeths-first-speech/
10
Brimacombe, Peter.
All the Queen’s Men: The World of Elizabeth I. New York: St. Martin’s Press, 2000.
11
Darwin, Charles.
The Descent of Man, and Selection in Relation to Sex. New York: D. Appleton and Company, 1882.
12
Buffett, Warren.
Lecture to Notre Dame Faculty. South Bend, IN: 1991. Retrieved from: https://www.tilsonfunds.com/BuffettNotreDame.pdf
13
Popper’s theories on falsifiability are taken from his following works: The Logic of Scientific Discovery, The Poverty of Historicism, and All Life is Problem Solving.
14
Russell, Bertrand. The Problems of Philosophy. New York: Henry Holt and Company, 1912.
First Principles Thinking
1
Leighton, Ralph. Surely You’re Joking, Mr. Feynman: Adventures of a Curious Character. New York: Random House, 2014.
2
Sagan, Carl.
“Why We Need To Understand Science.” The Skeptical Inquirer, Vol.14, Issue 3 (Spring 1990).
3
Ashton, Kevin.
How to Fly a Horse: The Secret History of Creation, Invention, and Discovery. New York: Anchor Books, 2015.
4
Weintraub, Pamela.
“The Doctor Who Drank Infectious Broth, Gave Himself an Ulcer, and Solved a Medical Mystery.” Discover, March 2010.
5
http://www.grandin.com/design/design.html
6
Grandin, Temple.
“A response to Hibbard and Locatelli.” Stockmanship Journal, Vol. 3 No. 1 (January 2014).
7
Ruetzler, Hanni,
quoted in “What does a stem cell burger taste like?” by Melissa Hogenboom, BBCNews.com, August 5, 2013. Retrieved from: http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-23529841
8
Emerson, Harrington.
Speech published in “The Convention: Fifteenth Annual Convention of the National Association of Clothiers, Held June 5 and 6, 1911.” The Clothier and Furnisher, Volume 78, No 6 (July 1911).
Thought Experiment
1
Brown, James Robert and Fehige, Yiftach, “Thought Experiments”, The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (Summer 2017 Edition), Edward N. Zalta (ed.). Retrieved from: https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/thought-experiment/
2
Isaacson, Walter.
Einstein: His Life and Universe. New York: Simon and Schuster, 2007.
3
Foot, Philippa.
“The Problem of Abortion and the Doctrine of the Double Effect.” Oxford Review, No. 5 (1967).
4
Thomson, Judith Jarvis. “The Trolley Problem.” Yale Law Journal, Vol. 94, No. 6 (May, 1985).
5
Rawls, John.
A Theory of Justice, revised edition. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2005.
Second-Order Thinking
1
Keller, Evelyn Fox. A Feeling for the Organism: The Life and Work of Barbara McClintock. New York: W.H. Freeman and Company, 1983.
2
Atwood, Margaret.
Surfacing. Toronto: McClelland and Stewart, 1972.
3
Hardin, Garrett.
Living Within Limits. New York: Oxford University Press, 1993.
4
Muir, John.
My First Summer in the Sierra. Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1911.
5
Schiff, Stacy.
Cleopatra: A Life. New York: Back Bay Books, 2010.
6
Wollstonecraft, Mary. A Vindication of the Rights of Woman. London: 1792.
7
Hardin, Garrett.
Filters Against Folly. New York: Penguin, 1985.
Probabilistic Thinking
1
Mandelbrot, Benoit.
The Fractal Geometry of Nature. New York: W.H. Freeman and Company, 1977.
2
Kahneman, Daniel and Tversky, Amos. Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Science. Volume 185, 1974.
3
Bernstein, Peter L.
Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk. New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1996. (This book includes an excellent discussion in Chapter 13 on the idea of the scope of events in the past as relevant to figuring out the probability of events in the future, drawing on the work of Frank Knight and John Maynard Keynes.)
4
Helm, Sarah.
A Life in Secrets: The Story of Vera Atkins and the Lost Agents of SOE. London: Abacus, 2005.
5
Kahneman, Daniel.
Thinking Fast and Slow. New York: Random House, 2011.
Inversion
1
Fitzgerald, F. Scott.
“The Crack-up, Part I.” Esquire, February 1936.
2
Heath, Thomas.
A History of Greek Mathematics, Volume 1, From Thales to
Euclid. UK: Oxford University Press, 1921.
3
Axelrod, Alan.
Profiles in Folly: History’s Worst Decisions and Why They Went Wrong. New York: Sterling, 2008.
4
Tye, Larry.
The Father of Spin. New York: Holt and Company, 1998.
5
Doyle, Arthur Conan. The Adventures of Sherlock Holmes. London: George Newnes, 1892.
6, 7
Axelrod, Alan.
Ibid.
8
Tye, Larry.
The Father of Spin. New York: Holt and Company, 1998.
9
Bogle, John.
Common Sense on Mutual Funds: New Imperatives for the Intelligent Investor. USA: John Wiley and Sons, 1999.
10
Lewin’s original work on force field analysis can be found in Lewin, Kurt. Field Theory in Social Science. New York: Harper and Row, 1951.
11
Sun Tzu.
Ibid.
12
McDonald, Lynn.
“Florence Nightingale, statistics, and the Crimean War.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (2014) 177, Part 3, pp. 569–586
13
McDonald, Lynn.
Ibid.
14
Kopf, Edwin W.
“Florence Nightingale as Statistician.” Publications of the American Statistical Association. Vol. 15, No. 116 (Dec., 1916), pp. 388-404
15
Sun Tzu.
Ibid.
Occam’s Razor
1
Mingus, Charles.
Charles Mingus - More Than a Fake Book. Hal Leonard Corporation, 1991.
The Great Mental Models Page 13
