by Paul Scharre
Sarao, Navinder Singh, 206
satellites, 300–301
saturation bombing, 281
Saudi Arabia, 213
Savitsky, Valentin, 311
SAW (Squad Automatic Weapon), 37–38
Schelling, Thomas, 298, 305, 315, 341, 348
Schuette, Larry, 100–101
Scott, Ridley, 234
Seabed Treaty (1971), 301
Sea Hunter, 78–79
sear, 190
Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), 206
Sedol, Lee, 126, 150
self-driving cars, 28, 31–32, 147, 217, 277
Selva, Paul, 8, 293–94
semiautonomous weapon systems, 29, 29f, 44, 44f, 326f
Brimstone missile as, 107–8
DoD policy, 89
fully autonomous vs., 48f
human intervention in, 147
Senkaku Islands incident, 208–9
Sensor Fuzed Weapon (SFW), 51–52, 326
sentry robots, 5, 102, 104–5, 112–13, 118, 303–4
SGR-A1 sentry robot, 5, 104–5, 118, 303–4
Shadow drone, 209
Shattuck, Lawrence, 308
Shelley, Mary, 234
Sherman, William Tecumseh, 274, 296
Shield AI, 122–24
shot detection system, 113–14
Siemens Step 7 software, 214
Singapore, 103
Skinner, B. F., 39
Skynet (fictitious weapon system), 26–28, 52–53, 134, 233–34, 360–61
SMArt 155 artillery shell, 343
“smart” weapons, 38–40; see also precision-guided munitions
Somme, Battle of the, 38
sonar, 85
Sorcerer’s Apprentice (animated short), 148–49
South China Sea, 209
South Korea, 5, 102, 104–5, 260, 303–4, 356
sovereignty, drones and, 208
Soviet Union, 1–2, 76, 313–14; see also Cold War
S&P 500, 199, 204
space shuttle, 154, 382n
SpaceX, 154
Spark hobby drone, 115
Sparrow, Rob, 259
spear phishing attacks, 224
speed, 199–210
autonomous weapons and, 207–10
and crisis stability, 304–5
in cyberwarfare, 229–30
and limits of centaur warfighting, 325–26
online price wars, 205
in stock trading, 200–204, 206–7
spoofing attacks, 182–83, 183f, 186, 206
Sputnik, 76, 80
Squad Automatic Weapon (SAW), 37–38
stability, 297–318
autonomous weapons and, 302–3
autonomous weapons’ potential to inflame crises, 317–18
benefits of autonomous weapons in crises, 311–14
and debate over autonomous weapons bans, 351–52
and nuclear weapons, 298–302
psychology of crisis decision-making, 306–11
and removal of human fail-safe, 305–6
speed and, 304–5
stability-instability paradox and mad robot theory, 314–16
strategic, 297–302
Stark, USS, 169
Star Wars, 134
“Star Wars” missile defense shield, 309–10
stationary armed sentry robots, 104–5
stealth drones, 56, 61–62, 209, 354
stigmergy, 21
stock market
algorithmic trading, 200–201, 203–4, 206–7, 210, 229, 244, 387n
E-mini price manipulation incident, 206
“Flash Crash,” 199–201, 203–4
Knight Capital Group incident, 201–2
Strategic Air Command (SAC), 307
strategic corporal problem, 309
Strategic Defense Initiative, 1, 309–10
strategic stability, 297–302
Strategic Stability (Colby), 299
Strategy of Conflict (Schelling), 341
Stuxnet worm, 213–16, 223, 224
Submarine Safety (SUBSAFE) program, 161–62
submarine warfare, 101
suffering, unnecessary, 257–58
Sullivan, Paul, 162
Sun Tzu, 229
Superintelligence (Bostrom), 237
supervised autonomous weapon systems, 29, 45–46, 45f, 193, 329f
CODE, 72–76, 117, 253, 327–28
human intervention in, 147
surface action group (SAG), 64
surrender, false, 259–60
surveillance
drones for, 13–14
FLA and, 68–71
swarming
by autonomous weapons, 11–13
CODE program, 72–76
command-and-control models, 20f
and evolution of autonomy, 17–23
FLA and, 71
of U.S. ships by Iran, 22, 107
synthetic aperture radar (SAR), 86
Syria, 7, 331
system failure, Three Mile Island as, 151
T-14 Armata tank, 116
Tacit Rainbow, 49
Tactical Technology Office (TTO), 79–83
Tactical Tomahawk Land Attack Cruise Missile (TLAM-E), 55, 368n
tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTP), 41
Taliban, 3, 253
tanks, robotic, 115–16
Taranis drone, 108–11
targeting
ATR, 76, 84–88
autonomous, 116, 123–24, 187
DIY drones and, 123–24
by human-assisted automated weapons, 98
by sentry robots, 112–13
of weapons instead of people, 261
target location error, 98
Target Recognition and Adaption in Contested Environments (TRACE), 84–88, 128
targets, cooperative/non-cooperative, 84–85
task, as dimension of autonomy, 28
TASM, See Tomahawk Anti-Ship Missile
TensorFlow, 128–29
Terminator (film series)
and autonomous weapon debates, 264
fate in, 360–61
good Terminators in, 295
self-aware robots in, 27
Skynet, 26–28, 52–53, 134, 233–34, 360–61
“Terminator Conundrum,” 8
terrorism, 93, 134
Tesla Model S crash, 147
Tetris, 239
thermostats, programmable, 30–31, 33–34
Third Offset Strategy, 59, 82, 93
Thomas Jefferson High School (TJ), 130–33
Three Laws of Robotics (Asimov), 26–27, 134
Three Mile Island nuclear accident, 151–53, 156
Thresher, USS, 161
tightly coupled systems, 152
TJ (Thomas Jefferson High School), 130–33
Tomahawk Anti-Ship Missile (TASM), 49, 49f, 53–54, 368n
Tomahawk Land Attack Cruise Missile (TLAM-E), 55, 368n
Tornado GR4A fighter jet incident, 138–40, 176
torpedoes, 39–40
torture, 280
total war, 274, 296, 341
Tousley, Bradford, 80–84, 149, 210, 223–24
TRACE (Target Recognition and Adaption in Contested Environments), 84–88, 128
training, limitations of, 177
transparency
and crisis management, 328–29
in description of weapons research, 111
in treaty verification regimes, 344–45, 352–53
treaties, arms control, see arms control
Trebek, Alex, 146
Trident II (D5) ballistic missile, 173
Trophy system, 92
trust
in Aegis combat system, 168
in automation, see automation bias
and cybersecurity, 246
and dangers of autonomous weapons, 192, 194
and deployment of autonomous systems, 83
and need to understand system’s capabilities and limitation
s, 149–50
Tseng, Brandon, 122, 123, 133
Tseng, Ryan, 122
TTO (Tactical Technology Office), 79–83
TTP (tactics, techniques, and procedures), 41
Turing, Alan, 236
Turing test, 236
Tutsis, 288
Twain, Mark, 35–36
Twitter, 185, 224
U-2 surveillance plane, 307, 310–11
UAV (uninhabited aerial vehicle), 104
UCAV (uninhabited combat aerial vehicle), 62
unguided weapons, 38–39
UNIDIR (UN Institute for Disarmament Research), 150–51
uninhabited aerial vehicle (UAV), 104
uninhabited combat aerial vehicle (UCAV), 62
United Kingdom (UK)
autonomous weapons policy, 118
Brimstone missile, 105–8, 117, 326, 353
stance on fully autonomous weapons, 110–11
Taranis drone, 108–11
transparency in description of weapons research, 111
WWII aerial bombardments, 341–42
UK Joint Doctrine Note 2/11 (The UK Approach to Unmanned Aircraft Systems), 109
UN Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons (CCW), see Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons
UN Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR), 150–51
UN Security Council, 344
United Nations Special Rapporteur, 287
U.S. Department of Defense Law of War Manual, 358
University of California, Berkeley, 240
University of Pennsylvania, 70
Unmanned Aircraft Systems Flight Plan, 2009–2047 (U.S. Air Force report), 23–25
unnecessary suffering, 257–58
unrestricted submarine warfare, 101
UralVagonZavod, 116
Uran-9 ground combat robot, 114–16
utilitarianism, 285–87, 290
Vandenberg Air Force Base, 307, 308
vehicles, self-driving, 28, 31–32, 147, 217, 277
verification regimes, 344–45, 352–53
Vietnam War, 208
Vikhr robot tank, 115–16
Vincennes, USS, 169–70, 177, 262
viruses (malware), 211–13, 225, 246–47
visual-aided navigation, 122–23
Waddell & Reed, 203, 204, 387n, 388n
Walker, Mike, 219–21, 227
Wall Street, see stock market
Walzer, Michael, 273, 274
War Games (film), 299
War of 1812, 304
war termination, 299
Watson (IBM AI), 146–47
Watts, Barry, 43–44
Waxman, Matthew, 255
weapons, targeting of, 261
weapons bans, weapons regulations vs., 267; see also arms control
weapons of mass destruction (WMD), 344
weapon systems; see also autonomous weapon systems; supervised autonomous weapon systems
defined, 43–44
DoD definition, 367n
White, Nathan, 143
Wi-Fi, 121
Williams, Dave, 138, 139
Williams, Jody, 271, 283, 285, 294–95, 330
WMD (weapons of mass destruction), 344
Wolf-2, 114
Work, Bob
on AGI issues, 98–99, 244–45
and AI, 245
on autonomous cyberweapons, 228
on autonomous weapons arms race, 8
on autonomous weapons deployment, 96–97
discussions of autonomous weapon development, 293
on escalation of autonomous arms race, 117
on evaluating learning systems, 180
on importance of testing, 149
on limits of autonomous weapons, 346
on loitering munitions, 97–98
on need for human control of autonomous weapons, 229–30
on revolutions in warfare, 93–96
on Sea Hunter, 78, 79
and Third Offset Strategy, 245
World War I
chemical weapons, 331, 341, 343
defense-dominant regimes in, 299
events leading to, 208
machine guns, 38
and unnecessary suffering standards, 257
World War II
aerial bombing raids, 275–76, 341–42
chemical weapons, 331, 340
and diffusion of responsibility for killing, 276–77
Japanese innovations in warfare, 100–101
offense-dominant regimes in, 299–300
and posturing, 275
precision-guided munitions in, 39–40
saturation bombing, 281–82
U.S. bombing campaign against Japan, 279
Wren torpedo, 39–40, 54
X-47B experimental drone, 17, 60–62
x.ai, 236
Yeltsin, Boris, 173–74
Yoo, Myung Ho, 105
Yudkowsky, Eliezer, 237
zero-day malware attacks, 213–14
Zuckerberg, Mark, 241
Copyright © 2018 by Paul Scharre
All rights reserved
First Edition
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The Library of Congress has cataloged the printed edition as follows:
Names: Scharre, Paul, author.
Title: Army of none: autonomous weapons and the future of war / Paul Scharre.
Other titles: Autonomous weapons and the future of war
Description: First edition. | New York: W. W. Norton & Company, [2018] |
Includes bibliographical references and index.
Identifiers: LCCN 2017053908 | ISBN 9780393608984 (hardcover)
Subjects: LCSH: Military robots—Moral and ethical aspects. | Military weapons—Technological innovations. | Weapons systems—Technological innovations. | Robotics—Military applications. | War—Forecasting.
Classification: LCC UG479 .S37 2018 | DDC 623.4—dc23
LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2017053908
ISBN 978-0-393-60899-1 (e-book)
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