by Bobby Akart
Carl Sagan was one of the first people to recognize this point in a commentary he wrote on nuclear winter for Foreign Affairs magazine. Sagan believed nuclear winter could cause human extinction in which case all members of future generations would be lost. He argued that this made nuclear winter vastly more important than the direct effects of nuclear war which could, in his words, kill only hundreds of millions of people.
Sagan was, however, right that human extinction would cause permanent harm to human civilization. It is debatable whether nuclear winter could cause human extinction. Rutgers professor Alan Robock, a respected nuclear winter researcher, believes it is unlikely. He commented, “Especially in Australia and New Zealand, humans would have a better chance to survive.”
Why Australia and New Zealand? A nuclear war would presumably occur mainly or entirely in the northern hemisphere. The southern hemisphere would still experience environmental disruption, but it would not be as severe. Australia and New Zealand further benefit from being surrounded by water which further softens the effect.
This is hardly a cheerful thought as it leaves open the chance of human extinction, at least for those of us north of the equator. Given all the uncertainty and the limited available research, it is impossible to rule out the possibility of human extinction. In any event, the possibility should not be dismissed.
Even if people survive, there could still be permanent harm to humanity. Small patches of survivors would be extremely vulnerable to subsequent disasters. They certainly could not keep up the massively complex civilization we enjoy today. In addition to the medical impact, the destruction of the power grid, the heartbeat of most nations, would likely occur due to the electromagnetic pulse generated by the nuclear detonations. It would take many years to rebuild the critical infrastructure ruined by the blasts.
It would be a long and uncertain rebuilding process and survivors might never get civilization back to where it is now. More importantly, they might never get civilization to where we now stand poised to take it in the future. Our potentially bright future could be forever dimmed, permanently.
Nuclear winter is a very large and serious risk. In some ways, it doesn’t change nuclear weapons policy all that much. Everyone already knew that nuclear war would be highly catastrophic. The prospect of a prolonged nuclear winter means that nuclear war is even more catastrophic. That only reinforces policies that have long been in place, from deterrence to disarmament. Indeed, military officials have sometimes reacted to nuclear winter by saying that it just makes their nuclear deterrence policies that much more effective. Disarmament advocates similarly cite nuclear winter as justifying their policy goals. But the basic structure of the policy debate unchanged.
In other ways, nuclear winter changes nuclear weapons policy quite dramatically. Because of nuclear winter, noncombatant states may be severely harmed by nuclear war. Nuclear winter gives every country great incentive to reduce tensions and de-escalate conflicts between nuclear-capable states.
Nation-states that are stockpiling nuclear weapons should also take notice. Indeed, the biggest policy implication of nuclear winter could be that it puts the interests of nuclear-capable nations in greater alignment. Because of nuclear winter, a nuclear war between any two major nuclear weapon states could severely harm each of the others. According to intelligence sources, there are nine total nuclear-armed states with Iran prepared to breakthrough as the tenth. This multiplies the risk of being harmed by nuclear attacks while only marginally increasing the benefits of nuclear deterrence. By shifting the balance of harms versus benefits, nuclear winter can promote nuclear disarmament.
Additional policy implications come from the risk of permanent harm to human civilization. If society takes this risk seriously, then it should go to great lengths to reduce the risk. It could stockpile food to avoid nuclear famine or develop new agricultural paradigms that can function during nuclear winter.
And it could certainly ratchet up its efforts to improve relations between nuclear weapon states. These are things that we can do right now even while we await more detailed research on nuclear winter risk.
Against that backdrop, I hope you’ll be entertained and informed by this fictional account of the world thrust into Nuclear Winter. God help us if it ever comes to pass.
Real-World News Excerpts
THE COUNTDOWN TO AN ISRAELI WAR WITH IRAN HAS BEGUN
~ Foreign Policy Magazine, May 2021
The Israelis believe that the results of America's foreign policy will strengthen the rogue Iranian regime that is committed to Israel’s destruction, while paving its path to obtaining and using nuclear weapons.
Tal Kelman, the general in charge of the IDF’s Iran strategy, was asked in an interview recently if Israel has the ability to attack and completely destroy Iran’s nuclear program. He responded without hesitation: “The answer is yes. When we build these capabilities, we build them to be operational. It’s not that there aren’t many strategic dilemmas, since the day after Iran can go back to the plan, but the ability exists.
In reaching the conclusion that their best ally, the United States, has chosen a course the Israelis fervently believe will end up increasing that threat rather than containing it will only confirm their view that Israel is on its own when it comes to stopping Iran’s march to the bomb and that its operational planning to act military to defeat it must be accelerated.
The risk of war in the Middle East is almost certainly rising.
INDIA – PAKISTAN CONFLICT: A TICKING TIME BOMB
~ Deutsche Welle, May 2021
India and Pakistan are trying to improve relations, but decades of hostility over territorial and ideological disputes hold progress back.
After the last American soldier departs Afghanistan this year, India and Pakistan will be left with some very difficult, unsavory choices. They must attempt to maintain their autonomy while the government in Afghanistan allows the Taliban to gain an upper hand. It will not be long before the Taliban exerts its will in Pakistan.
This scenario directly threatens India’s political, security, and economic interests. It will pave the way for the Indian government to insert itself in Pakistan’s affairs through possible military action against the Taliban. These changing dynamics are sure to create increased tensions between New Delhi and Islamabad, two nuclear powers.
MISSILES AND WARHEADS IN THE GROUND ARE NO WAY TO DETER NUCLEAR WAR NOW
~ Los Angeles Times, April 19, 2021
Across five Western states — under farmland, windblown fields of grazing cattle and Great Plains plateaus — 400 aging nuclear-armed ballistic missiles stand at the ready. From a distance, the isolated, fenced-off areas look like they might be for wells pumping water, or fiber optic cable repeaters. What is underground, however, is neither water nor the internet, but weapons so powerful that if used or attacked, it could alter global climate and end civilization.
Nuclear weapons today have only one purpose: to deter the other side from using theirs while governments work to prevent their spread and ultimately end them as a threat to the world.
If there were any doubts, the latest studies about how nuclear war could alter world climate suggest that even what’s considered a small war — involving several hundred weapons — could produce “nuclear winter,” shattering the planet’s food supply and setting off an unprecedented famine with devastating global repercussions. The economic, social and governmental collapse would mean the end of civilization as we know it, suicide for humanity.
HOW A SMALL NUCLEAR WAR WOULD TRANSFORM THE ENTIRE PLANET
~ Nature Magazine, updated May 2021
As geopolitical tensions rise in nuclear-armed states, scientists are issuing warnings on the global impact of nuclear war. The hypothetical:
It all starts in 2025, as tensions between India and Pakistan escalate over the contested region of Kashmir. When a terrorist attacks a site in India, that country sends tanks rolling across the border with Pakistan. As a sho
w of force against the invading army, Pakistan decides to detonate several small nuclear bombs.
The next day, India sets off its own atomic explosions and within days, the nations begin bombing dozens of military targets and then hundreds of cities. Tens of millions of people die in the blasts.
That horrifying scenario is just the beginning. Smoke from the incinerated cities rises high into the atmosphere, wrapping the planet in a blanket of soot that blocks the Sun’s rays. The planet plunges into a deep chill. For years, crops wither from California to China. Famine sets in around the globe.
The worst impact would come in the mid-latitudes, including breadbasket areas such as the US Midwest. Grain reserves would be gone in a year or two. Most countries would be unable to import food from other regions because they, too, would be experiencing crop failures. The researchers did not explicitly calculate how many people would starve, but say that the ensuing famine would be worse than any in documented history.
The bottom line remains that a war involving less than 1% of the world’s nuclear arsenal could shatter the planet’s food supplies. “The surprising finding”, said one researcher, “is that even a small-war scenario has devastating global repercussions.”
Contents
Epigraph
Part I
Chapter 1
Chapter 2
Chapter 3
Chapter 4
Chapter 5
Chapter 6
Chapter 7
Chapter 8
Chapter 9
Chapter 10
Chapter 11
Chapter 12
Part II
Chapter 13
Chapter 14
Chapter 15
Chapter 16
Chapter 17
Chapter 18
Chapter 19
Chapter 20
Chapter 21
Chapter 22
Chapter 23
Chapter 24
Chapter 25
Chapter 26
Part III
Chapter 27
Chapter 28
Chapter 29
Chapter 30
Chapter 31
Chapter 32
Chapter 33
Chapter 34
Chapter 35
Chapter 36
Chapter 37
Chapter 38
Chapter 39
Chapter 40
Chapter 41
Part IV
Chapter 42
Chapter 43
Chapter 44
Chapter 45
Chapter 46
Chapter 47
Chapter 48
Chapter 49
Chapter 50
Chapter 51
Chapter 52
Chapter 53
THANK YOU FOR READING NUCLEAR WINTER: DEVIL STORM!
What’s coming next from Bobby Akart?
Other Works by Amazon Charts Top 25 Author Bobby Akart
Epigraph
The Devil whispered in my ear, “You’re not strong enough to withstand the storm”.
Today, I whispered in the Devil’s ear, “I am the storm.”
~ Unknown
Anyone can hold the helm when the sea is calm.
~ Ancient maritime saying
Rough seas make stronger sailors. Tough times build greater people.
~ Robin Sharma, Canadian Attorney and Author
All tyranny needs is for people of good conscience to remain silent.
~ Thomas Jefferson, Founding Father
Panic is an energy thief.
~ Hank Albright
A man is not finished when he’s defeated; he’s finished when he quits.
~ President Richard M. Nixon
If you are going through Hell, keep going.
~ Winston Churchill
I think I can. I think I can.
~ The Little Engine that Could
Part I
Day twenty, Wednesday, November 6
Chapter One
Wednesday, November 6
Overseas Highway at Cross Key
Florida Keys, USA
“Hey! I’m Peter Albright. Does anybody know me?”
A crush of people trying to force their way through the barricades blocking access to the Florida Keys shoved Peter forward. A woman fell near him and was promptly trampled by the refugees trying to make their way to the front of the processing line. The scrum intensified as the low rumble of two airport baggage tractors caught the attention of the refugees, forcing them to stop their progress.
The momentary pause in the forward assault on the blockade allowed Peter to hear a lone voice in the midst of the chaotic scene.
“Peter! Peter! It’s Jimmy!”
“Jimmy?” Peter was elated that Jimmy Free, his longtime friend he’d grown up with on Driftwood Key, was standing among the guards manning the blockade. He was also surprised by his presence, as Jimmy had never worked for anyone other than Peter’s father, Hank.
“You have to hurry!” Jimmy shouted back. “They’re closing—”
Peter was unable to hear the rest of his sentence as the diesel engines of the baggage tractors began to roar from his right to left across the divided highway. The bright halogen lights used by the blockade guards blinded him as he shaded his eyes to see. A line of men dressed in dark clothing pointed their rifles menacingly toward the refugees. Thus far, none of them had pulled their triggers.
Amidst the rumble of the motors and the shouts emanating from both sides of the checkpoint, Peter could hear the sound of scraping metal along the pavement.
“All personnel, move back to the Jewfish checkpoint!” a man bellowed on a megaphone. Jewfish Creek was one of the small bodies of water that separated Key Largo from the mainland.
“They’re gonna blow the other bridge!” shouted a man to Peter’s left.
“I’m a resident! Let me in!” hollered another.
“Let’s go for it!” a third man bellowed in a deep voice.
Peter was spun sideways as several people charged ahead, crashing through the folding tables that had once been used for processing the refugees. The temporary intake center was no match for the people racing toward the concrete barriers and whatever lay beyond the massive halogen lamps that blinded them.
“Stop! We will shoot you!” warned the man with the bullhorn.
He failed to dissuade the crowd, who quickened their pace toward the row of generator-operated lighting. The first of the men leading the pack had approached the lights when the commanding officer of the blockade gave the order.
“Fire!”
Quick, staccato bursts of gunfire rang out. Peter could hear the bullets whiz over his head just before the crowd erupted in panic. The mass of people forcing their way through the barricades suddenly stopped and reversed course. Peter was caught between those fleeing and the momentum of the others who continued to push forward.
“Don’t run! They’re just warning shots!” yelled one of the men who’d encouraged the group to charge the checkpoint.
“He’s right. They’re not gonna shoot us!”
Peter had learned on the road that the old adage shoot first and ask questions later was rule number one of survival in a post-apocalyptic world. He wasn’t so sure the second round of gunfire would miss its mark.
The baggage tractors were shut off, reducing the noise level at the checkpoint. Peter, following two large men who cautiously approached the halogen lights, covered his eyes in an attempt to see beyond the temporary lighting equipment. He shouted for his friend again.
“Jimmy! What do I do?”
He didn’t respond.
“Fire!” the man with the bullhorn ordered his men. The automatic weapons sent another short burst of bullets whizzing by, causing everyone at the front of the advance to drop to the ground. Shrieks and screams filled the air as those refugees behind Peter ducked for cover or began running the other way. Then another order was given. “Fall back!”
Jim
my took advantage of the momentary cessation of order-giving. “Peter! Now! You have to hurry!”
Peter, along with a dozen others, began to run toward the halogen lights. They were blinded by the multiple sixteen-hundred-watt portable light towers as they straddled the concrete barriers. Without regard to the flash blindness that overwhelmed their retinas, they pushed forward, and once in the open, they sprinted toward the darkness on the other side.
He allowed the others to lead the way, as he was still concerned about being shot. He kept his pistol in its holster, as he knew he was no match for the weaponry used by the guards.
