by W.H. Harrod
~~ Chapter Sixteen
Unseen by the two front seat combatants, Ernest reached across and poked Bobby in the arm and winked as Allison responded to Sam’s blunt question as to why they were on this seemingly insane journey. Anyone could see that Ernest had great confidence in Allison’s reasons for doing about anything. Bobby’s reciprocating grin suggested that he likewise agreed with his back seat companion’s overall assessment of her performance.
Sam, too, by his prolonged silence, showed himself incapable of making a compelling argument against Allison’s thoughtful response. Allison, meanwhile, employed the “whoever speaks first loses” tactic as she sat quietly, satisfied that her work was finished for the moment.
“That hurt!” said Sam. “A part of me wants to find some way to disagree with what you said, but I have this feeling in the pit of my stomach that’s yelling ‘Thank you. That’s exactly how I feel! We are going in the wrong direction, and ultimately, it won’t work.’”
“What direction is that Sam?” asked Allison, anxious to hear what he had to say. She hoped that Sam could fill in the holes, and she believed there were always holes.
Sam grimaced as he pondered Allison’s question. She could tell that he was reluctant to delve too far into this topic.
“This is no time to be keeping secrets, Sam. What did you mean when you said ‘it won’t work?’”
“Don’t make me come up there!” threatened Ernest mockingly from the back. “We’re going back to the front lines, so don’t let us get there not knowing everything we need to know.”
Sam was now the center of attention, and until he somehow satisfied his colleague’s curiosities, he would receive no reprieve.
“Okay, I’ll tell you what I’ve learned and let you draw your own conclusions. First, Allison if you will, apprise me of the primary reasons why you think this country is about to go to war, and also, why we should not follow that course of action. Please, it’s important.”
Allison didn’t hesitate before she complied with Sam’s request. “I think we are going to Iraq because we want their oil. We are going to send our children to die to protect this country’s right to run SUVs up and down the freeways and have two, three, and four car families. I doubt that the lunatic in Iraq has weapons of mass destruction even though the administration claims he has. If he did, why would he use them to get us angry? The man’s a criminal. Where’s the upside in getting the most powerful country in the world mad at him? That would be suicidal! He may be willing to sacrifice the lives of the people of Iraq for any reason that suits his selfish interest, but I don’t buy into his committing suicide, which is what he would be doing if he tried to do something that stupid. I don’t buy into this crap that we need to save the people of Iraq from a tyrant. A hundred other tyrants in the world are just as bad only they aren’t sitting on vast stores of oil. The ones that have vast stores of oil depend upon this country to provide them with the military weaponry to keep the ruling elite in power. The harboring of Islamist terrorists excuse is bogus, also. The criminal who runs Iraq is about as religious as I am. The last thing he needs, or wants, is a bunch of fundamentalist fanatics running around his little kingdom inciting people he wants to keep under control. Again, the man’s a criminal, and it’s not in his best interest to harbor terrorists.”
“Finally, war time presidents aren’t usually voted out of office. Look what has happened to the economy since this guy came into office. It’s tanked big time. This is a classic ruse to keep the peons distracted. Get them talking about terrorism, abortion, homosexuality, evolution, or social security. These hot button issues will take people’s minds off the real issues of importance like creating jobs, providing health care for families, protecting the environment, and reducing the national debt we’re creating for future generations to have to deal with. That about says it, I guess. Is that what you wanted?”
“That’s exactly what I wanted,” said Sam.
“Works for me,” commented Ernest.
“Likewise,” offered Bobby.
“And it’s exactly what I expected,” added Sam.
“What’s your point?” asked Allison.
“The point is I agree with everything you said,” responded Sam. “If we halt our discussion right at this point, I think we will agree that what our country is proposing to do is pure folly, if not criminal. Before we pass judgment, I suggest we consider some additional facts and information. For instance, of the thousands of people who will show up at these planned protest marches, how many of them will arrive from considerable distances via automobiles, including SUVs, airplanes, buses, RVs, or trains? How many of them will be eating food served in restaurants or sold in markets along the way? How many will stay in motels that are lighted, heated, and air-conditioned? How many will wear clothing, bring along medication, use cell phones to talk with family back home? How many will read a paper or bring a good book or their laptop? How many will bring a camera to take pictures? Every single one of these items or services is dependent on cheap oil. I could go on like this for hours, but I expect you see where I’m going with this.”
“Our entire society is hydrocarbon dependent. Everything requires cheap oil or natural gas. This country depends upon copious amounts of oil, every day, every hour, every minute. Without a steady supply of cheap oil, our entire economy will crash and burn not next month or next year, but immediately. Any significant disruption in this flow of oil will be disastrous to our way of life. If somehow a dissident takes out the rulers of Saudi Arabia with some plastic explosives strapped to him, we can expect to be without approximately fifteen percent of our absolutely essential supply of oil. That’s just fifteen percent, and it will create a crisis. The Saudis are the cornerstone of OPEC, and without their support, we are in a world of hurt.”
Sam took a drink of water from a plastic bottle. “Approximately eighty percent of the known oil reserves are located in the Persian gulf. There is a finite amount of this light crude oil in the world. If it exists, it’s been found. People talk about heavy crude and shale deposits being available in huge quantities. So what if they are available? The cost of converting those resources is too expensive to be practical. You hear this bullshit about alternative energy sources, much of it from the government. Well, that’s bullshit, too. All the wind power, solar power, geothermal and hydroelectric power, plus the illusory hydrogen power that’s spoken so highly of in official circles will not come close to making up for the loss of our primary sources of cheap oil. This economy is built to run on light crude only, and there is only one place where there is enough of it to support a lifestyle that the citizens of this country have come to expect, and furthermore, I believe, will demand. That’s the Persian Gulf. If you think for one minute that a Republican administration or a Democratic administration is going to stand up and say to an electorate addicted to a life that demands cheap oil, ‘We’re sorry, but we don’t have access to the oil we need because the rulers where it’s produced don’t like us because of our religion or, maybe, our government. Now they have other big customers like China, India, the European Union, or Japan who want the oil so one of those countries can replace the U.S. as the preeminent industrialized society in the world, and they simply want to ration their oil so it won’t run out so fast.’ What do you think the vast majority of the people of this country will say, including most of the fine folks who will be joining us in the streets of San Francisco?”
“They will say, you sons-of-bitches, you better go get me my oil. My family lives forty miles out of town, and we drive separate cars to work, school, shopping, soccer games, and to the doctor. I have a riding lawn mower, a snow blower, a weed trimmer, a jet ski, a powerboat and a motorbike. I want my gasoline right now. Do whatever you have to do, but get it!”
“Practically every respected geologist that has ever worked for the big oil producers has said repeatedly that we either have exceeded or we are about to exceed peak oil production. What that means is that one half o
f all the oil that has ever been available has been pumped and used already. From that point on, the world will pump fewer barrels of oil each year. Current estimates put the total supply of light crude in the world at approximately one trillion barrels. Sounds like a lot until you find out that the world is presently using up between eighty and ninety billion barrels a year. At the same time, our country is being surpassed, not by one, but by no less than three economic entities that are soon going to have a greater gross domestic product than ours. They are going to require more and more of this finite supply of light crude for their own economic purposes. Their consumption levels are increasing yearly in relation to their manufacturing and the expansion of their consumer economic bases. They are doing everything within their powers to replace the United States as the largest and most important economic power in the world. To do this, they must have access to the same finite supplies of oil we are dependent on. This battle is going on as we speak, and it will continue to go on.”
“If the United States would suddenly have to depend upon the oil reserves we own we could count on no more than thirty billion barrels of oil. That’s all we have available to pump out of the ground from sites in Alaska, Texas, the Gulf coast, and every other field located on United States soil or in its waters. That’s all! Presently our economy requires seven plus billion barrels of oil a year to function. Anything less than that and the hurting starts real fast. That’s only four years of oil available in a crunch.”
“Right now, sixty percent of the oil we use comes from regions of the world where most of the populations consider us their enemies. Of the four largest providers, two of them may not be around next year: Saudi Arabia, where most of the real terrorists in the world come from who would like nothing more than to overthrow the current regime and cut us off the next day, and Venezuela which has a leftist government that hates the United States and if not for fear of suddenly seeing our destroyers in Caracas’ harbor, they would have cut us off long ago. China will buy up everything they have. They don’t need us. Of the other two, Canada and Mexico, only Canada is secure. Mexico, due to the bad deal they are getting from the World Trade Organization and the International Monetary Fund that requires Mexico to subscribe to free trade agreements which allows big multi-national corporations to come in and destroy their farming as well as the local economies through unfair trade practices, will be a country populated by starving peasants in another ten years. Millions have lost their jobs or have left the no longer sustainable farming operations already. These peasants will do one of two things: they will start a violent revolution, or they will head north for the U.S. border where we will probably have to position regular Army units to keep them from overrunning our southern states. Either way, it only takes a handful of rebels to disrupt the flow of oil to the United States.”
“What do you expect would happen if we lost access to only twenty-five percent of the oil that we need today to keep going? There is a good chance that in certain areas of the country big cities would no longer remain viable. Take Las Vegas and other cities of the desert southwest. They only exist because of the availability of cheap oil that we cannot continue our standard of living without. We live in an economy dependent upon moving people and products over long distances. How will people who live in the suburbs get to work, to school, to medical facilities, to airports, and to half-billion dollar sports arenas? Most of the personal wealth of this country is invested in suburban communities that are totally dependent on cheap oil for their existence. Without cheap oil those communities can’t exist, and the people who own the new homes in those new suburban developments will be devastated. The ripple effect would be felt over the entire country immediately. We would experience a depression much worse than the one that occurred in 1929. Society might dissolve into chaos in certain areas and governments may fail altogether, inviting political and religious demagogues to exhort frightened and desperate people to put their trust in them to root out the causes for their despair much like a certain German dictator did in the 1930s. We are not exempt from the lessons of history, but rather they are patiently waiting for future shortsighted generations to forget the lessons of the past so that they may be taught anew.”
Once again Sam halted to take a drink of water. Not another person in the bus acted as if they had any intention of saying anything. Allison, for one, hung on to every sentence. She may not have liked what she was hearing, but she still wanted to hear it, good or bad.
“Yes, I believe we’re sending our young soldiers into those alien places to die for cheap oil that supports a way of life that is totally dependant upon our access to a resource that is only plentiful in those foreign and hostile places. This is not a decision that can wait five years or ten years. This decision must be made now. Next year may be too late or maybe even six months may be too late. China and India and the European Union can drive to the area if they have to. We, on the other hand, are half a world away, and if we don’t create a presence in the area now, we will have to fight our way in later or settle for a much different way of living.”
“There is another not so insignificant matter to consider in determining whether we must place our young soldiers in harm’s way once more. I will try my best to explain this matter in layman’s terms. I am speaking of the present administration’s attempts to preserve the United States dollar as the world’s official reserve currency. Let me explain. If you have ever wondered what is really keeping our economy afloat, it is the rest of the world’s belief in the power of the dollar. Today, other countries use our dollar to transact business across the world. They use the dollar instead of gold. Foreign countries produce products and no matter who they sell them to they receive dollars in exchange. Those dollars are held in their account at the central bank in the United States. Essentially, the rest of the world keeps producing things in exchange for green paper that is backed only by the reputation of the United States as a safe haven for investments. These manufactured dollars are invested in United States Treasury debt obligations to the tune of two billion dollars a day. Much of our way of life has been financed through the creation of these dollars deposited in the central bank. For foreign countries, the most important function of this financial arrangement is its use in helping to buy oil for their own use. If they don’t have dollars, they can’t buy oil. Since Saudi Arabia and the United States agreed in 1974 that in exchange for arms from us the Saudis would only accept dollars in exchange for their oil, we have maintained dollar hegemony. Henceforth, the dollar became, in essence, the petrodollar.”
“Is everyone still with me?” Sam looked around to see if anyone was confused. “Good, then I’ll keep going. Things were going pretty smooth with the petrodollar arrangement until the last few years when a couple of things happened. First, the European Union came into existence with every intention of competing with the United States for the benefit of the member countries of Europe. To do that, they had to create a uniform currency called the Euro. As the European Union finds its footing, the Euro is becoming more respected and more popular as an alternative safe haven for countries trading on the world market. They have never been bashful about their intent to one day compete with the United States as the reserve currency of choice.”
“Over the years as our deficits and our national debt have increased to such staggering amounts, foreign countries took notice. They are becoming alarmed at this country’s unwillingness to curb its excessive spending habits. They have naturally started to wonder if they should be looking at alternatives in selecting a safe place for their money. The Euro is gaining favor as the value of the dollar continues to decline in relation to the value of the Euro, and the European Union is still seeking to have the Euro accepted as the new world reserve currency.”
“In 2000, Saddam Hussein began to sell Iraq’s oil directly for Euros, and you can imagine how this went down with the present administration. It caused a panic. The United States is addicted to the free money that comes its way by virtue
of being the central bank for most of the world’s business. Without it, we could not have achieved this high standard of living. By the way, the countries that brokered this deal with Iraq for the European Union were France and Germany. When you listen to them scream at the nerve of the United States for even thinking about attacking Iraq understand that they are not completely disinterested parties. The move by Iraq was a direct threat, but even worse, it set an unacceptable example for the other OPEC members. North Korea and Iran made plans to follow Iraq’s lead in converting their dollar reserves for Euros. Immediately, they were labeled the ‘Axis of Evil’ and centers of terrorism by our government. Iraq had to be stopped. The present administration believes the outcome of this coming war will have an impact on this country’s well being towards the end of this century.”
“United States domination, which is considered by many in the power elite to be the only way to ensure the American way of life, rests on three things: its overwhelming military superiority, especially on the oceans; its access to the planet’s primary sources of remaining fossil fuels; and its control of world economics via the role of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency which provides this country with a source of funds we can no longer live without. We are in the painful process of ceding the role as the world’s leading manufacturer to China and India as well as other countries, which relegates the United States to the role of the world’s banker and policeman. If we lose the job of world banker we are left only with our weapons, which we must certainly then use if we want to retain a place in the world’s hierarchy. If my history lessons still serve me, nations and empires that existed only by the force of arms eventually succumbed to the force of arms.”
“What I am saying to you is there is no turning back for this country if this way of life is important to us. If this way of life is what we want and expect for our children, we have to have a strong military presence in the Persian Gulf area and beyond, period. We have to reverse Iraq’s posture regarding the use of the Euro as opposed to the dollar. If we choose to step back out of the fast lane, it’s going to be a big step back, and once you’re out of the game you stay out of the game. They’re not going to let us back in. Without the oil or the oil money, our military will degrade within a few years to resemble the once mighty Soviet army, which is now only a pathetic shadow of its former self. This is one of those deals where if you can’t run with the big dogs, you better stay on the porch. The ramifications of our government’s decision will not only affect this generation’s way of life significantly but future generations as well. Nothing will ever be the same again! Life as we know it will change dramatically. Now, are the people joining us in the streets of San Francisco aware of the ramifications of our government conceding to the rest of the world’s requests? Something tells me they are not.”
Allison couldn’t speak for the others, but she, for one, needed time to think about what Sam had unloaded on them. She considered herself to be an informed individual and fully expected that there were things going on that the average person knew little or nothing about. But, how could informed people not know things like this? If this was true, how could a government, in good conscience keep this information from the citizens of the country? This concerned her. Meanwhile, she had no idea what her colleagues in the rear were thinking. She expected they were as puzzled as her and were probably waiting for her to take the lead in ferreting out more information from Sam.
“Sam, you have to know what my first question is going to be, don’t you?” she asked.
“I do. You are asking yourself, how can people not know this? Why are our leaders not telling us this? Let me give you my theory on this phenomenon. I told you earlier how I thought average people would react if after the fact, the President stood up and admitted that we no longer could expect to have access to the single resource our country depends upon for its existence. They would raise hell and, maybe, try to lynch him. Whoever was left, they would tell them the same fate awaited them if they didn’t get busy and get us that damned oil! Assuming that the great majority of Americans have no interest in reducing their standard of living so that other emerging countries could feed upon the fatted calf, we are talking about being proactive and doing something to avert a crisis early on. One way this could be accomplished is by being honest with ourselves and the world. Our President could say something like, ‘My fellow citizens, we have a problem. We have allowed our economy to grow obese from consuming most of the world’s natural resources over the last fifty years and are now faced with a dilemma. We’ve used up almost all of our own resources and most of the rest of the world’s, also. The raw materials that will permit us to continue at this extravagant pace, which can’t go on forever no matter what, are located on the other side of the world and owned by countries that don’t like us anyway. Not only that, but now there are several other countries that want to try to live lives of excess just as we do, and they are presently trying to gain control over these essential resources. My advice is to send our military over there and take control before those interlopers get their greedy hands on these resources we have to have to keep living as we are. So what do you say, folks?’”
“As refreshing as it might be, I think we can agree that’s not going to happen. That’s what conquerors waving SPQR banners did a long time ago, and I don’t think the rest of the civilized world will allow that to happen again without a squabble. Maybe it could be accomplished another way. Maybe we could use the huge military apparatus we still have to go around the world quelling uprisings, destroying terrorist organizations, and securing democracy for people who haven’t the slightest idea what the word democracy means -- cultures whose social habits are still deeply rooted in tribal laws and traditions established a thousand years ago. These cultures, we believe, should be given the opportunity to assimilate the wisdom of the west in relation to political freedoms, civil rights, religious ecumenicism, and free market capitalism. If these good deeds are done for the greater part in places where there happen to be vast stores of the diminishing natural resources our country needs to survive, well so much the better. We won’t steal these resources from the countries we save as the great warrior nations of the past did. No, we will buy these resources at a fair price. So, everyone is happy. We rescue an oil rich country and set them on the course of modernization, and then we pledge to protect and support this fledgling society by buying their natural resources and keeping our military in the area for their protection, of course. Now who can argue against that?”
“The final part of my answer deals with your growing curiosity as to why this information has not been reported in depth on national television, radio, or in the papers? On all levels, these industries are now controlled by large corporations who have a vested interest in making their corporate officers and the major stockholders lots of money. They direct what and how the media, through ten and twenty second sound bites, provides most of the news people get in this country. They are not seeking to be illuminators; they are seeking profits. Studies show that viewers display scant interest for in-depth reporting or the examination of serious economic issues. Most viewers leave their sets at the end of the day believing they know all they need to know about the day’s events. It’s been said that, ‘Anyone who gets most of their news from television is not well-informed.’ Meanwhile, the sale of books, magazines, and newspapers has declined.”
“The giant corporations who own the media outlets have an interest in protecting our government’s image. These corporations only exist with the consent of the government, and they gain the approval of the FCC by not doing anything to place the government in a bad light. By becoming team players, the media giants have persuaded the government to eliminate laws that prevented corporations from gaining control over entire sectors of the television, radio, and print industry. Where before there were many small owners, now there are only a few big corporate owners. It’s about making money, not about making you an informed citizen. At times when you
do hear or see someone in the media attacking the government you can believe it’s mostly a smoke screen. They go to great lengths to perpetuate the myth of a liberal bias in the media so the citizens will feel that their selfish interests are being preserved from government interference. This helps create a sense of security and deters the people of our country from questioning the government’s activities. People believe that if the government were actually doing something wrong the liberally biased media would ferret it out and report the miscreant agency or individual’s activities. Reporting to the nation on a regular basis that the bottom is about to fall out of our economy due to our no longer having access to copious amounts of light crude or the free money that comes from being the world’s banker has been lost to a competitor does not place our government or the large corporations that depend upon their continued good favor in a good light. The information is available, only you’re going to have to depend on other sources which require you to put forth more effort in finding it and in validating this information through corroboration from additional sources. How many people do you know who have the time or the interest to do something like that? One final comment, if you accept my hypothesis regarding these important matters without going out and verifying them from multiple sources, you are doing yourselves a disservice. Be like Socrates in these matters and understand that ‘doubt and assumed ignorance is essential to the pursuit of knowledge.’”
