by Hugo Mercier
34. Peires, 1989, location 46–49.
35. Stapleton, 1991.
36. Peires, 1989, location 4483–4486.
37. Stapleton, 1991, p. 385.
38. Peires, 1989, location 4577–4582.
39. Cohn, 1970, p. 66; for the “ children’s crusade,” see Dickson, 2007.
40. Weber, 2000; see also Barkun, 1986; Hall, 2013.
41. Lanternari, 1963; Hall, 2013, p. 3; see also Barkun, 1986.
42. Hall, 2009.
43. For the Xhosa, see Peires, 1989, location 1106–1108; more generally, see Hall, 2009.
44. Hall, 2009; see also Scott, 1990, p. 101, who notes how “throughout Eu rope and
in Southeast Asia . . . there are long traditions of the return of a just king or religious
savior, despite great differences in cultural and religious lineages.”
45. Acts 2:41 En glish Standard Version.
46. Lawlor & Oulton, 1928, 3.37.3.
47. MacMullen, 1984, p. 29; cited in Stone, 2016.
48. E.g., Abgrall, 1999; cited in Anthony, 1999.
49. Stark, 1996.
50. Stark, 1984.
51. E. Barker, 1984.
52. Iannaccone, 2006 (I have relied on this paper substantially for this section),
drawing on E. Barker, 1984.
53. E. Barker, 1984.
54. E. Barker, 1984, p. 8
55. Stark & Bainbridge, 1980; David A. Snow & Phil ips, 1980; Le Roy Ladurie, 2016,
location 847–849; for a review, see Robbins, 1988; Stark & Bainbridge, 1980.
56. Anthony, 1999, p. 435.
57. Stark, 1996, p. 178; see also Power, 2017.
58. Stark, 1996, chap. 8.
59. Iannaccone, 2006, p. 7.
60. Murray, 1974, p. 307.
61. For an elaboration and a critique of this view, see Abercrombie et al., 1980 (from
which I partly draw here).
62. Marx & Engels, 1970.
288 no t es t o ch ap t er 9
63. For general criticisms of this view, see Abercrombie et al., 1980; Delumeau, 1977;
Le Bras, 1955; Stark, 1999; K. Thomas, 1971.
64. Murray, 1974, p. 299.
65. Murray, 1974, p. 304
66. Murray, 1974, p. 305
67. Murray, 1974, p. 318
68. Murray, 1974, pp. 305, 320. Humber was far from being the only preacher to
deplore his flock’s re sis tance to Christian doctrine; for more examples, see Pettegree,
2014, pp. 27, 128, 135, 137.
69. Le Roy Ladurie, 2016, location 666–673; see also Ekelund, Tol ison, Ander-
son, Hébert, & Davidson, 1996.
70. Cohn, 1970; Dickson, 2007.
71. Cohn, 1970, p. 80.
72. Cohn, 1970, p. 80.
73. Delumeau, 1977, p. 225; see also MacMullen, 1999; K. Thomas, 1971.
74. Le Roy Ladurie, 2016, locations 947–952, 985–987.
75. Murray, 1974, p. 318. The point that official religious doctrine is never well ac-
cepted, and loses to more intuitively compel ing traditional practices, is a truism in
the anthropology of religion. For more examples related to medieval Chris tian ity, see,
e.g., Ginzburg, 2013.
76. Murray, 1974, pp. 307, 320.
77. On the case of Hinduism and the caste system, see Berreman, 1971; Harper,
1968; Juergensmeyer, 1980; Khare, 1984; Mencher, 1974.
78. Scott, 1990, 2008.
79. Scott, 2008, p. 29; for slaves in the antebellum South in par tic u lar, see Geno-
vese, 1974.
CHAPTER 9
1. Hitler (1339); available at Proj ect Gutenberg, http:// gutenberg .net .au / ebooks02
/ 0200601 .txt. Quotes found in “Propaganda in Nazi Germany,” Wikipedia, https:// en
. wikipedia .org / wiki / Propaganda _ in _ Nazi _ Germany (both accessed November 23, 2018).
2. Kershaw, 1983a, p. 191.
3. Voigtländer & Voth, 2015.
4. For a diff er ent example of this pro cess, see Bursztyn, Egorov, & Fiorin, 2019.
5. Adena, Enikolopov, Petrova, Santarosa, & Zhuravskaya, 2015, p. 1885.
6. Kershaw, 1983a, p. 191.
7. Kershaw, 1983a; Kuller, 2015.
8. Kershaw, 1983a, p. 188.
n o t e s t o c h a p t e r 9 289
9. Salter, 1983.
10. Stout, 2011, pp. 4, 31; see also Kallis, 2008; Kershaw, 1983a.
11. Kershaw, 1983a, 1987.
12. Kershaw, 1983a, p. 199.
13. See Mawson, 2012, p. 141.
14. Mawson, 2012, p. 141.
15. Stout, 2011.
16. Kershaw, 1983a, p. 200.
17. Brandenberger, 2012.
18. Davies, 1997, pp. 6–7. Rus sians also created a trea sure trove of amazing jokes
poking fun at the regime; see, for instance, “Rus sian po liti cal jokes,” Wikipedia,
https:// en .wikipedia .org / wiki / Russian _ political _ jokes#Communism (accessed March 28, 2019).
19. Rose, Mishler, & Munro, 2011; B. Silver, 1987.
20. Peisakhin & Rozenas, 2018.
21. Wang, 1995.
22. Wang, 1995, p. 277.
23. X. Chen & Shi, 2001; see also Gang & Bandurski, 2011.
24. Osnos, 2014, location 2330–2333.
25. Osnos, 2014, location 3965–3966.
26. Huang, 2017.
27. Osnos, 2014, location 4657–4663.
28. Roberts, 2018, p. 218.
29. King, Pan, & Roberts, 2017.
30. Márquez, 2016, pp. 137–138, citing Aguilar, 2009; Pfaff, 2001; Tismaneanu, 1989.
31. For some examples of this, see Blakeslee, 2014; Petrova & Yanagizawa- Drott,
2016.
32. Kershaw, 1987, p. 80.
33. Demick, 2010.
34. Osnos, 2014, location 606–609.
35. Ezra Klein, “Trump has given North Korea ‘the greatest gift ever,’ ” Vox,
January 2, 2018, https:// www .vox .com / 2017 / 12 / 21 / 16803216 / north - korea - trump
- war.
36. Reviewed in J. J. Kennedy, 2009.
37. “China lifting 800 mil ion people out of poverty is historic: World Bank,” Busi-
ness Standard, October 13, 2017, https:// www .business - standard .com / article
/ international / china - lifting - 800 - million - people - out - of - poverty - is - historic - world
- bank - 117101300027 _ 1 .html; on the use of carrots by the Nazi, see the contested Aly, 2007.
38. Kershaw, 1983a, p. 196.
290 no t es t o ch ap t er 9
39. “Cost of Election,” OpenSecrets .org, https:// www .opensecrets .org / overview
/ cost .php (accessed July 6, 2018).
40. For references, see, e.g., O’Donnell & Jowett, 1992.
41. E.g., Lasswel , 1927.
42. Name given by Klapper, 1960, based on research such as Hovland, 1954; La-
zarsfeld et al., 1948.
43. Klapper, 1960, p. 15, cited in Arceneaux & Johnson, 2013.
44. See, e.g., Iyengar & Kinder, 1987; Gamson, 1992.
45. Arceneaux & Johnson, 2013.
46. Lenz, 2009.
47. See Lenz, 2013; see also, e.g., Broockman & Butler, 2017; Carlsson, Dahl, &
Rooth, 2015.
48. Berelson, Lazarsfeld, McPhee, & McPhee, 1954; Huckfeldt, Pietryka, & Reilly,
2014; Katz, 1957.
49. Chiang & Knight, 2011; Ladd & Lenz, 2009.
50. Kalla & Broockman, 2018, which also included some data from studies that used
convincing identification strategies, approximating randomized experiments.
51. See also Broockman & Green, 2014; Durante & Gutierrez, 2014; S. J. Hil , Lo,
Vavreck, & Zaller, 2013.
52. See references in Kalla & Broockman, 2018; see also Bekkouche & Cagé, 2018.
53. Kalla and Broockman did note a few exceptions to this pat
tern (although they
might also be statistical flukes). When a campaign manages to provide a surprising
piece of information to targeted voters for whom this information is particularly rel-
evant, it might have a small effect. For example, in one study the campaign had man-
aged to target pro- choice voters ( people who oppose some restrictions on abortion)
and sent mailers informing them that one of the candidates, whom they would have
expected to be pro- choice, was in fact not (Rogers & Nickerson, 2013). This piece of
information had a small but significant effect on these voters. What the campaign had
done, essentially, was substituting itself for the media.
54. Carole Cadwalladr, “The great British Brexit robbery: How our democracy was
hijacked,” Guardian, May 7, 2017, https:// www .theguardian .com / technology / 2017
/ may / 07 / the - great - british - brexit - robbery - hijacked - democracy.
55. Matz, Kosinski, Nave, & Stillwel , 2017.
56. The quotes are from Evan Halper, “Was Cambridge Analytica a digital Sven-
gali or snake- oil salesman?,” Los Angeles Times, March 21, 2018, https:// www .latimes
. com / politics / la - na - pol - cambridge - analytica - 20180321 - story .html; the number estimates are from Mats Stafseng Einarsen (@matseinarsen), thread starting with “The
Facebook + Cambridge Analytica thing is a trainwreck on multiple levels . . . ,” Twit-
ter, March 20, 2018, 9:44 a.m., https:// twitter . com / matseinarsen / status
/ 976137451025698821; see also Al an Smith, “ There’s an open secret about Cambridge
n o t e s t o c h a p t e r 9 291
Analytica in the po liti cal world: It doesn’t have the ‘secret sauce’ it claims,” Business
Insider Australia, March 22, 2018, https:// www .businessinsider .com .au / cambridge
- analytica - facebook - scandal - trump - cruz - operatives - 2018 - 3; David Graham, “Not even Cambridge Analytica believed its hype,” Atlantic, March 20, 2018, https:// www
. theatlantic .com / politics / archive / 2018 / 03 / cambridge - analyticas - self - own / 556016
/ ; Stephen Armstrong, “Cambridge Analytica’s ‘mindfuck tool’ could be totally useless,” Wired, March 22, 2018, https:// www .wired .co .uk / article / cambridge - analytica
- facebook - psychographics; Brian Res nick, “Cambridge Analytica’s ‘psychographic microtargeting’: What’s bullshit and what’s legit,” Vox, March 26, 2018, https:// www
. vox . com / science - and - health / 2018 / 3 / 23 / 17152564 / cambridge - analytica
- psychographic - microtargeting - what.
57. Gelman, Goel, Rivers, & Rothschild, 2016.
58. Gelman & King, 1993, p. 409.
59. Barabas & Jerit, 2009, but it can create gaps in who knows what; Nadeau,
Nevitte, Gidengil, & Blais, 2008; and see Roberts, 2018, for how this is used in
China.
60. Ladd, 2011.
61. Besley, Burgess, & others, 2002; Snyder & Strömberg, 2010; Strömberg, 2004.
62. Peter Kafka and Rani Mol a, “2017 was the year digital ad spending fi nally beat
TV,” Vox, December 4, 2017, https:// www .recode .net / 2017 / 12 / 4 / 16733460 / 2017
- digital - ad - spend - advertising - beat - tv. This section is largely based on work reviewed by Del aVigna & Gentzkow, 2010; Tel is, 2003.
63. Lewis & Rao, 2013.
64. Aaker & Carman, 1982; see also Lodish et al., 1995.
65. Y. Hu, Lodish, & Krieger, 2007.
66. Ackerberg, 2001; Tel is, 1988; Tel is, Chandy, & Thaivanich, 2000.
67. Ackerberg, 2001, p. 318.
68. M. Thomas, in press.
69. Amos et al., 2008.
70. Lull & Bushman, 2015; Wirtz, Sparks, & Zimbres, 2018.
71. Nestlé, “Management Report 2005, ” https:// www .nestle .com / asset - library
/ documents / library / documents / annual _ reports / 2005 - management - report - en
. pdf; Nestlé, “Management Report 2006,” https:// www .nestle .com / asset - library
/ documents / library / documents / annual _ reports / 2006 - management - report - en
. pdf; Nestlé, “Management Report 2007, ” https:// www .nestle .com / asset - library
/ documents / library / documents / annual _ reports / 2007 - management - report - en .pdf
(all accessed May 25, 2019).
72. Christophe Cornu, “A new coffee for the USA from Nestlé Nespresso,” Nestlé
Investor Seminar 2014, available at https:// www .slideshare .net / Nestle _ IR / nespresso
- 35442357 (accessed May 25, 2019).
292 no t es t o ch ap t er 10
73. Nespresso, “Brand related, ” https:// www .nestle - nespresso .com / about - us / faqs
/ brand - related (accessed May 25, 2019).
74. Van Doorn & Miloyan, 2017.
75. Tel is, 2003, p. 32; see also Blake, Nosko, & Tadelis, 2015. For some potential
exceptions explained as solutions to coordination prob lems, see Chwe, 2001.
CHAPTER 10
1. Peter Schroeder, “Pol : 43 percent of Republicans believe Obama is a Muslim,”
The Hill, September 13, 2017, http:// thehill .com / blogs / blog - briefing - room / news
/ 253515 - pol - 43 - percent - of - republicans - believe - obama - is - a - muslim.
2. Haifeng Huang, “In China, rumors are flying about David Dao’s alleged $140
mil ion settlement from United Airlines,” Washington Post, May 10, 2017, https:// www
. washingtonpost .com / news / monkey - cage / wp / 2017 / 05 / 10 / in - china - rumors - are
- flying - about - david - daos - 140 - mil ion - settlement - from - united - airlines / .
3. Danny Cevallos, “United Airlines must have paid big bucks for Dr. Dao’s silence,”
CNN, May 1, 2017, https:// edition .cnn .com / 2017 / 04 / 28 / opinions / united - airlines
- settlement - cevallos / index .html.
4. E. Morin, 1969.
5. Sinha, 1952.
6. Prasad, 1935.
7. Weinberg & Eich, 1978.
8. Allport & Postman, 1947.
9. Rosnow, 1991, p. 484.
10. Chorus, 1953, p. 314.
11. E.g., Naughton, 1996; P. A. Turner, 1992.
12. Pound & Zeckhauser, 1990.
13. What seems like a low hit rate (half of the rumors being false) is still very valu-
able because takeovers are rare. If we assume the odds of any given com pany, at any
given time, being taken over are essentially zero, then hearing a rumor puts these odds
at 50 percent, a massive change.
14. DiFonzo & Bordia, 2007.
15. DiFonzo, 2010.
16. DiFonzo, 2010, table 6.2, p. 146.
17. Caplow, 1947.
18. See also Knapp, 1944.
19. Caplow, 1947, p. 301.
20. Because our mechanisms of open vigilance are mostly in the business of ac-
cepting messages that would other wise have been rejected, their inactivation doesn’t
raise significant risks of accepting harmful messages; see chapter 5.
n o t e s t o c h a p t e r 11 293
21. For an application to the spread of bullshit, see Petrocel i, 2018.
22. Caplow, 1947.
23. Diggory, 1956.
24. Shibutani, 1966, p. 76.
25. Weinberg & Eich, 1978, p. 30.
26. Sperber, 1997.
27. Kay, 2011, p. 185.
28. Gwynn Guilford, “The dangerous economics of racial resentment during World
War II,” Quartz, February 13, 2018, https:// qz .com / 1201502 / japanese - internment - camps
- during - world - war - i - are - a - lesson - in - the - scary - economics - of - racial - resentment / .
&
nbsp; 29. “Trump remains unpop u lar; Voters prefer Obama on SCOTUS pick,” Public
Policy Pol ing, December 9, 2016 https:// www .publicpolicypol ing .com / wp - content
/ uploads / 2017 / 09 / PPP _ Release _ National _ 120916 .pdf.
30. Nation Pride comment on Google Review, https:// www .google .com / search ? q
= comet+ping+pong&oq = comet+ping+pong&aqs = chrome . 69i57j35i39j69i60j69i61j0l2
. 183j0j7&sourceid = chrome&ie = UTF - 8#lrd = 0x89b7c9b98f61ad27:0x81a8bf734dd1c
58f,1,,, (accessed March 10, 2018).
31. Kanwisher, 2000.
32. Sperber, 1994.
33. NASA, public domain, https:// commons .wikimedia .org / wiki / File:Cydonia
_ medianrp .jpg; and grendelkhan, https:// www .flickr .com / photos / grendelkhan
/ 119929591 (accessed June 18, 2019), CC BY- SA.
34. Wohlstetter, 1962, p. 368.
35. Boyer & Parren, 2015.
36. van Prooijen & Van Vugt, 2018.
37. Vosoughi, Roy, & Aral, 2018.
38. Boyer & Parren, 2015; Dessalles, 2007.
39. Donovan, 2004, p. 6.
40. Note that the same remarks apply to the spreading of “metarumors,” rumors
about the rumors— e.g., “Do you know that people are saying that Jewish shop keep-
ers are kidnapping young girls!” In this case as well, we should won der what we
would do if we real y believed that people were intuitively believing this rumor, or what
we would say to someone who is spreading it.
CHAPTER 11
1. Inspired by Buckner, 1965, p. 56.
2. Inspired by E. Morin, 1969, p. 113.
3. E. Morin, 1969, p. 113 (my translation); for an experimental replication of this
phenomenon, see Altay, Claidière, & Mercier, submitted.
294 no t es t o ch ap t er 11
4. Aikhenvald, 2004, p. 43. Another source (the World Atlas of Language Struc-
tures sample) suggests 57 percent.
5. Aikhenvald, 2004, p. 43.
6. Aikhenvald, 2004, p. 26
7. Altay & Mercier, submitted; see also Vullioud et al., 2017.
8. On the importance of getting credit for communicated information, see Des-
salles, 2007.
9. Four- year- olds seem able to draw this type of inference; see Einav & Robinson,
2011. On the whole, people seem to be quite sensitive to the attribution of proper
sources, as they realize that this is impor tant to grant proper credit or blame when the
information turns out to be good or not; see I. Silver & Shaw, 2018.
10. Donovan, 2004, pp. 33ff.
11. “The royal family are bloodsucking alien lizards— David Icke,” Scotsman, Janu-
