by Rafe Sagarin
An adaptable approach to environmental protection that inherently makes this connection is found in the concept of the “public trust doctrine.”6 The doctrine, which is fundamental to our formation as a country, and may date back to the Magna Carta,7 states that natural resources (like the wetlands that should be protecting New Orleans) belong to all citizens equally and are only held in trust by the government, which has an obligation to protect, grow, and repair the body of the trust. In contrast to the current system of lobbying groups working to create (or fight against) fairly static conservation laws that become solely the province of government to enforce or not, public trust governance creates the opportunity for adaptable, feedback-oriented conservation.
The challenge put forth by public trust governance is, How do we balance extractive uses of the trust that provide immediate benefits, with the obligation to protect the trust for the future? The solution to the challenge lies in both a central government that can keep track of the whole portfolio of trust resources, and a citizenry that is able to, passively or actively, contribute to trust management through each individual’s valuation of trust resources. Peter Barnes, for example, has argued that the atmosphere (and the service of climate stabilization it provides) is a public trust and, as such, all citizens should be compensated for activities that damage the trust through a fund that polluting industries must pay into.8 This is not unlike the state of Alaska, which provides annual royalty checks to all Alaskans from a fund paid for by oil and gas developers. The concept of the public trust is the catalyst for a symbiotic partnership between multiple individuals with an incentive to solve a challenge and a central organization that has the resources and power to put the solution into practice.
A nature-mimicking adaptive cascade is modular, just like nature. Thus, we can initiate it in whatever module of society we happen to work within. Likewise, because nature is hierarchical, adaptive cascades can be created to fill various needs across scales of time and space. The initial challenges, for example, can be part of a five-year reorganization of the whole organization, they can be aimed at the next quarterly reporting period, or they can be renewed daily. When I visited Google’s campus in Mountain View, California, I was amused to find nearly incomprehensible (to me) daily programming and engineering challenges posted on sheets in the bathroom stalls. If the incentives for learning from success are properly set up, adaptable systems will spread throughout an organization, regardless of where they were originally initiated.
ADAPTABILITY WAY BEYOND SECURITY
I am hoping that by this point in the book you are thinking not just about what you’ve read, but about what you haven’t read. Security is both too broad a topic to cover in one book on adaptation, and too narrow. There are myriad security-related problems I haven’t touched on here. Examples that might appear as glaring omissions (depending on your own background and political positions) include the sorry state of our critical infrastructure, the very real specter of a debilitating cyberattack, or growing income and educational inequalities within and between nations. My goal with this book was not to take a survey of today’s security problems (which may or may not be tomorrow’s problems), but developing a framework for dealing with security problems, no matter what they are, where they arise, or when.
Which gets at the fact that security is also too narrow an application to absorb all the adaptable lessons of nature. I focused on security questions because when I started this project back in 2002 in Washington, D.C., the concept of security was so strongly manifest that it was barely possible to think of anything else. I don’t still keep a chemical evacuation mask under my desk, but there remain abundant reminders that we live in an unsecure world. As I write this, the Mississippi River is coming to its highest rise since the Great Flood and the Army Corps of Engineers are quickly breaching the levees and spillways protecting thousands of homes and farms to avoid a down-river breach of the levees protecting millions of people in Baton Rouge and New Orleans and the oil refineries and chemical plants beyond.9 Osama bin Laden has been killed, but days later al-Qaeda killed sixty people in a dual-suicide reprisal attack.
At the same time, most Americans are currently thinking more about job security than terrorism. Scientists are fretting more than ever over the unchecked consequences of climate change. And the daily things that we deal with—getting our kids to school in the morning, working with aggravating colleagues, trying to balance income and expenses, seem far removed from security policy writ large.
The biological concepts of adaptability that I’ve been looking at in the context of security are just as applicable to the non-security-related parts of our brains and our lives and our institutions. The same fundamental linkage between biology and security that I established at the outset of this book—that biological organisms and human societies both face highly variable and highly unpredictable threats—applies to almost everything we are involved in as humans. For example, your three-year-old’s moods, the value of your stock portfolio in three years, and the ecological condition of the herring stream you’ve been fishing since you were a kid are all things that will change radically and unpredictably in the near future. Likewise, at a different level of human organization, school boards want to know if their populations of children will perform well enough on tests to earn more federal funding, brokerage firms want to know if their investments will put them in the black, and fisheries management agencies want to know how herring populations overall will do over the next few years. We would love to be able to predict these changes, but we can’t. Like the stock market, we also can’t rely on past performance as a guide to the future. We’ve got to instead find that sweet spot where we can not only survive, but thrive, in a changing world where tomorrow’s problem is almost certain to be different than yesterday’s. We get to that sweet spot by developing adaptability in ourselves and in our institutions.
Bringing the full scope of biological adaptation to our own lives takes us to a crossroads. We can become overwhelmed by the enormous tangle of life around us and retreat back to more familiar problem-solving pathways, or we can continue to plow forward into the complexity and try to make some practical sense of it, even if we don’t understand the whole. As a biologist, I’ve already chosen my path—I know that I will never understand biological systems the way an accountant can master the tax code. But I also know that even a partial understanding of biology yields surprising insights, especially in an era when we’ve largely forgotten about nature’s power to expand our minds. We may no longer have the luxury to cruise the world’s oceans for five years like Darwin, or revel in our first summer in the Sierra like John Muir, or spend a brooding solitary winter in an outermost cabin like Henry Beston. But nature is still there. Its diversity is still staggering, its mysteries still profound. And its lessons are still free for the taking, completely open source and unclassified. It’s time to feel the cactus spine, listen to the marmot’s shrill call, and stare deep into the eye of an octopus.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
I AM GRATEFUL TO the John Simon Guggenheim Memorial Foundation for a fellowship that was critical in helping me complete this book. I thank Diana Liverman, Jonathan Overpeck, and the staff of the Institute of the Environment at the University of Arizona for their support of my work.
Writing a book is built on relationships, and it builds relationships as well. I only regret that here I can only thank a subset of the many relations that helped build and were built from the creation of this book.
I have been incredibly fortunate to have three academic mentors who have remained sources of inspiration and constructive criticism throughout my career. Don Kennedy, who was among the first people I shared this idea with, has been a cheerful enabler of some of my most outlandish ideas. From helping me investigate the “EZ Cheez” loophole in ozone-depleting chemical regulations during an undergraduate semester he taught in Washington, D.C., to the current work, he has always helped me focus the right questions and talk to the rig
ht people. Steven Gaines, dean of the Bren School of Environmental Management and my graduate advisor, taught me through example the craft of turning a tricky problem on its head to look for an unexpected solution. I can never say enough about Chuck Baxter, my first scientific mentor, ordained Universal Life Church minister at my wedding, and supplier of insanely good Carmel Valley–grown raspberry pepper jam. Although long retired as a biology lecturer, his current explorations of the subconscious mind have been highly influential on my thinking here.
The National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, with funding from the National Science Foundation, supported the initial working groups that led to many of the ideas discussed in this book. It is fortunate that my initial proposal was reviewed by Professor Larry Crowder, a boundless mind who later became a colleague and friend, as he had the nerve to advance my proposal when everyone else thought I was out of my mind. I am grateful to the other limitless minds from many fields of science and security practice who took a risk and joined what became some of the most stimulating conversations I’ve been a part of in my professional career. Too many people have contributed to these and subsequent “Natural Security” working groups I’ve organized to list here, but a small core has continually been a part of this project from the start and continues to enthusiastically explore new research projects on adaptability and security. Geerat Vermeij and Luis Villarreal not only provided astoundingly astute contributions to the working groups but also allowed me to share their unique personal stories. Scott Atran frequently reported back from the field, and whether he had been talking to disaffected youth of the Near and Middle East or getting grilled by congresspeople in D.C., he always had something interesting to share. Marmot-loving UCLA behavioral ecology professor Daniel Blumstein and University of Edinburgh Reader in International Relations Dominic Johnson are both brilliant at drawing out the counterintuitive and hidden solutions to complex problems. Most especially, I am grateful for the continual guidance and friendship of Dr. Terence Taylor, whose background as a soldier, intelligence officer, and weapons inspector could not be more different than mine, but who immediately recognized the synergy of bringing our different approaches to “living with risk” together.
The Center for Homeland Defense and Security at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California, just down the road from the marine biology lab where I got my start as a scientist, has been an invaluable source of inspiration and feedback for the ideas in this book. Both the faculty and participants in their Masters in Homeland Security and Executive Leadership Program courses exemplify the willingness to step away from the norm that will be necessary to bring adaptable ideas into practice. In particular, I am grateful to Chris Bellavita for his great enthusiasm for unusual approaches to everything, to lecturers Sam Clovis and Frank Barrett for their unique perspectives, and to Heather Issvoran for promoting my work there. Former student and U.S. Air Force Major Noel Lipana was very insightful in sharing his experiences with counter-IED efforts in Iraq, work that undoubtedly saved many soldier and civilian lives. Along similar lines, the Office of Naval Research Global was forward-thinking in organizing a conference in June 2010 on “operational adaptation” in Edinburgh, Scotland. The civilian and military participants in that conference produced an inspired discussion and debate about adaptability that undoubtedly shaped my views here. It was there that I met Major Douglas Cullins, who is a model for how to be both a textbook “clean marine” and a highly adaptable leader.
My editor at Basic Books, T. J. Kelleher, “got it” from the start. His deft hand made revising relatively painless, even for my stubborn brain. My literary agent, Esmond Harmsworth, continually amazed me with how hard he worked on my behalf. He pored through every proposal and every page of this book with his savagely sharp analytical mind and made it better on all counts.
My father-in-law, Chester Crocker, has forged a career building peace out of some of the world’s most intractable conflicts. Beyond the wisdom he shared with me directly and through selections from his seemingly infinite reading list, the respect his name carries across the political spectrum opened many doors and established many relationships vital to the completion of this book.
Finally, the deepest lesson from my scientific field of ecology, and not coincidentally the most important lesson of adaptability in this book, is that relationships matter more than anything. My closest relationships—my parents, my wife Rebecca, and my daughters—are beautiful manifestations of the creativity, commitment, and love necessary to nurture a project like this. Thank you.
Rafe Sagarin
Tucson, Arizona
NOTES
PROLOGUE
1 Mott, Maryann. “Did Animals Sense Tsunami Was Coming?” National Geographic News. January 4, 2005. http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2005/01/0104_050104_tsunami_animals.html; and “Pre-tsunami Animal Behavior.” http://www.freewebs.com/asiadisaster/unusualanimalbehaviour.htm. Both accessed March 29, 2011.
2 MacKinnon, Ian. “Aceh Residents Disable Tsunami Warning System After False Alarm.” Guardian, June 7, 2007. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2007/jun/07/indonesia.ianmackinnon. Nizza, Mike. “To Break a Tsunami Alarm.” New York Times, June 8, 2007. http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/06/08/warning-systems-unplugged/. Both accessed March 29, 2011.
3 Public/Private Fire Safety Council. “Home Smoke Alarms and Other Fire Detection and Alarm Equipment.” White Paper. 2006.
4 “Troops Grill Rumsfeld over Iraq.” http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4079201.stm. “Rumsfeld Gets Earful from Troops.” http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A46508–2004Dec8.html. “Soldiers Must Rely on ‘Hillbilly Armor’ for Protection,” http://abcnews.go.com/WNT/story?id=312959&page=2. All accessed April 13, 2010.
5 “Rumsfeld Set Up: Reporter Planted Questions with Soldier.” http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1297858/posts. Accessed April 13, 2010.
6 IED casualty figures compiled from icasualties.org.
7 Personal communication from reporter Nir Rosen, January 29, 2010.
8 CRS Report. Andrew Feickert. August 3, 2009. Mine-Resistant, Ambush-Protected (MRAP) Vehicles: Background and Issues for Congress. RS22707.
9 Moll, R. J., J. J. Millspaugh, J. Beringer, J. Sartwell, and Z. He. “A New ‘View’ of Ecology and Conservation Through Animal-borne Video Systems.” Trends in Ecology & Evolution 22 (2007): 660–668.
CHAPTER ONE
1 Davis, M. Ecology of Fear: Los Angeles and the Imagination of Disaster. New York: Vintage, 1999.
2 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. “Hunger in the Face of Crisis.” In Economic and Social Perspectives. United Nations, 2009.
3 http://www.infidels.org/library/historical/charles_darwin/voyage_of_beagle/ ; and Darwin, Charles. The Voyage of the Beagle: Anniversary Edition. Washington, DC: National Geographic, 2009.
4 Stott, Rebecca. Darwin and the Barnacle: The Story of One Tiny Creature and History’s Most Spectacular Scientific Breakthrough. New York: W. W. Norton, 2003.
5 The Penguin Books Log of the Sea of Cortez, p. 124.
6 Henderson, Donald A. “The Eradication of Smallpox.” Scientific American 235: 25–33 (1 October 1976). doi:10.1038/scientificamerican1076 -25.
7 Wulf, W. A., and A. K. Jones. 2009. “Reflections on Cybersecurity.” Science 326: 943–944.
8 Larson, B. M. “The War of the Roses: Demilitarizing Invasion Biology.” Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 3 (2005): 495–500.
9 See, for example, http://www.drugpolicy.org/library/factsheets/effectivenes/index.cfm on the war on drugs (accessed August 30, 2010); and Crocker, Chester A. “A Dubious Template for US Foreign Policy.” Survival 47, no. 1 (2005): 51–70, on the war on terror.
10 “Where’s the Remotest Place on Earth.” http://www.newscientist.com/gallery/small-world. Accessed April 15, 2010.
11 Levin, S. A. Fragile Dominion. Cambridge, MA: Perseus, 1999.
12 Binnendijk, Hans, and Richard L. Kugler. �
��Adapting Forces to a New Era: Ten Transforming Concepts.” In Defense Horizons. Washington, DC: National Defense University Center for Technology and National Security Policy, 2001. National Public Radio, “Interview: U.S. Army Brigadier General Joseph Votel and U.S. soldiers describe looking for, finding, and destroying IEDs in Iraq” (National Public Radio, 2005). Personal comments to the author from TSA, Coast Guard, FEMA, and other DHS agents.
13 Ripley, Amanda. The Unthinkable: Who Survives When Disaster Strikes—and Why. New York: Crown, 2008.
CHAPTER TWO
1 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. “Hunger in the Face of Crisis.” In Economic and Social Perspectives. United Nations, 2009.
2 See, for example, NOAA Technical Memorandum NMFS-SEFC-278.
3 Robaid.com. “Mussel Biomimicry Could Lead to New Super-Strong Polymers.” March 5, 2010. http://www.robaid.com/bionics/mussel -biomimicry-could-lead-to-new-super-strong-polymers.htm. Accessed August 30, 2010.
4 Feder, M. E., and G. E. Hofmann. “Heat-Shock Proteins, Molecular Chaperones, and the Stress Response: Evolutionary and Ecological Physiology.” Annual Review of Physiology 61 (1999): 243–282.
5 Shillinglaw, S. “Introduction.” Cannery Row. New York. Penguin Books, 1994. Pp. vi–xxvii.
