“Like Mr. Shelton said, my name is Casey Shenk. A week and a half ago I posted a story on my blog about the Baltic Venture. I had seen a brief clip of the hijacking on the news, and I decided to do a little research of my own. It’s sort of a hobby of mine. Anyway, last Tuesday I received a comment on that post warning me to stop digging into the story. Turns out that warning originated in Russia. I discussed the theory and the threat with Ms. Williams, who, incidentally, is the one who found out the threat was from Russia. On Wednesday, this past Wednesday, I posted another theory about the Baltic Venture. This time, asserting that Israel tipped the Russians off to the fact that the Baltic Venture was carrying a cargo of stolen Russian missiles.”
“You came up with that?” Oscar Horstein, IWG’s Israel analyst asked.
Casey looked at Oscar. He sensed that the man had doubts about either the validity of Casey’s assessment of Israel’s involvement or Casey’s ability to come up with that assessment all by himself. He hoped the man’s question stemmed from the former and not the latter.
“Yes, sir. I did.” Casey looked at Susan, the only semi-familiar face in view, to quickly put Oscar’s question out of his mind. “On Thursday, I rolled my work truck trying to avoid hitting a semi head-on. The brakes had given out. I spent a night in the hospital and thought nothing of it after that until a friend of mine in the Georgia State Patrol informed me that the brake line had been sabotaged. I found this out on Saturday. I thought the sabotage might have something to do with the warning, but I really had no evidence to back that up.”
Ed Hanson, one of the newest employees at the Intelligence Watch Group and assigned to Pete Grozny’s Russia cell, raised his hand. Ed was only thirteen months out of graduate school, and old habits die hard. When Casey acknowledged Ed with a nod, he put his hand down.
“Are you saying the Russians tried to kill you?”
“I don’t know,” Casey answered. “That’s why I came to New York—to hopefully find some answers, or maybe a clue. I don’t think the Russian government, itself, would try something like that, but maybe a mob element? I’m not an expert in Russian crime syndicates, but I did single them out as a likely seller in the arms deal. Or facilitator, anyway.”
“That’s possible,” Ed conceded. He wanted to hear more before he formed any opinions, so he waited for Casey to continue. Oscar Horstein didn’t wait.
“What, exactly, are you an expert in?” he asked. “You said you don’t know anything about the Russian mafia, but you are quick to indict them in an illegal arms deal, and you say they want to kill you for making that presumption. I think you’ve been watching too many movies. It was more likely a prank that went too far. Some hillbilly that you pissed off probably just wanted to ruin your day.”
“Cut it out, Horstein,” Susan said, throwing a reprimanding glare in Oscar’s direction.
“It’s all right, Susan,” Casey said, though he was glad to have somebody stick up for him in the crowd of strangers. Casey looked back at Oscar. “Maybe it was just a stupid prank...Mr. Horstein, is it?” Casey didn’t wait for an answer. “But it was no accident that my buddy’s face exploded in the cab of my truck Saturday night when he took a sniper’s bullet in the back of his head. I don’t need to be an expert pathologist to know that he’s never coming back. And if you want to compare sheepskins or measure dicks, I’ll make an appointment with your secretary. I came to IWG for help, and if you have a problem with my pedigree, then I am sorry to have wasted your time.”
The room was split between looks of shock and muffled snickering. Oscar Horstein controlled his anger. He knew he had asked for it, drawing Casey into a verbal corner where he would be forced to defend himself or cower. He didn’t expect Casey to come back swinging, but what upset him most were the reactions of his co-workers—particularly Pete Grozny, who let out a deep laugh that turned into an uncontrollable fit of coughing. Oscar did not have many friends at IWG, but to see that fact so visibly displayed disgusted him. He had two Master’s degrees, for God’s sake. He shouldn’t have to take this.
Before Oscar put his foot in his mouth again, Jim spoke up. “Okay, ladies and gentlemen, that’s enough,” he said, bringing order to the room once again. “Let’s get back to the matter at hand. Casey, could you tell these folks what you told Susan and I just before this meeting?”
Casey tried to control his breathing. Though he wasn’t afraid to defend himself, he didn’t like confrontation. He didn’t expect the repartee with Oscar, but he knew he had to continue if he was going to have a chance of getting any help from these people. “Yes, sir.” Casey looked back at his audience. “As I was saying before, when I found out somebody deliberately fucked with...messed with my brakes, the only thing I could come up with was the threat from Saint Petersburg, Russia. When Mike was shot, I went back to that. Only, this time I thought that if the Russians were pissed off at me for trying to bring more light to the Baltic Venture story, who else had I talked about that might be equally pissed off, or even more so?”
“Iran?” George offered from the back.
“Maybe,” Casey said. “But I didn’t think that Iran trying to buy air defense missiles from the black market was anything the world didn’t already expect them to do.”
“Besides, travel restrictions for Iranians wanting to come to America are extremely tight—especially since 9/11,” Susan said. “It’s not impossible, but it’s unlikely that elements in Iran would be able to get anyone into our country to perform an assassination. Not that quickly, anyway.”
“What about sympathizers? There are plenty of Iranians living here in America,” George added.
“I doubt it,” Susan said. “Casey’s right about there not being anything spectacular about Iran trying to buy missiles. Especially if, as I believe, the deal was being made under the radar by people in the IRGC.” She looked at Oscar for a retort, but the Israel analyst appeared to be deep in thought.
There was a brief silence as the room of analysts went over the scenario in their heads. This really was like a game to these people. Casey suspected that was why they worked at IWG in the first place.
“Israel.”
It was Oscar Horstein.
“Maybe the Israelis didn’t want you publicizing their involvement,” he said.
Casey was glad to see that Oscar had seemingly decided to rejoin the conversation in a more civil manner.
“I thought about that, too,” Casey said. “In fact, Susan and I discussed that same thing over the phone last week. But I never even mentioned Israel in my first post—the one that generated the threatening comment. And when I did, in my second post on the Baltic Venture, I only said Netanyahu told Medvedev about the stolen missiles. That’s all.”
“Maybe that was enough,” Ed Hanson said.
“Probably not,” Oscar said. “But accusing Israel of perpetrating a hijacking might be.”
“Except I never said that.”
Jim exchanged looks with Susan. Casey most certainly did say that. It was his arguments that Susan used to persuade her boss and Pete Grozny to publish that conclusion.
Casey noted the unspoken concern between the two, and he quickly added, “I mean, I never published that. Do I believe it’s true that Israel set up the hijacking of the Baltic Venture? Absolutely. They had a chance to stop those missiles from getting to Iran, so they took it. But I never posted anything about it.”
“No, but I did,” Grozny said. “Or I should say we did—in a report Friday evening.”
Casey was not aware that IWG had published the theory that Israel was now in the hijacking business. He had only found out an hour ago that they published anything about the Baltic Venture at all. He didn’t have the money to subscribe to their services, so he did not get the daily e-mails the company sent to those who did subscribe. Never mind that he didn’t even know the Intelligence Watch Group existed until a week ago. Casey was surprised at how his theories about the hijacking were taken seriously by the people at IWG—eno
ugh so that they would put their name to them. More importantly, it meant they thought he was right, and Casey was sure they did their own research and actually had sources in the field to corroborate any analyses they made.
“That doesn’t explain why Casey would be a target, though. His name wasn’t on the report,” Susan said. She suddenly felt slightly ill as she followed her own line of reasoning to the fact that her name was on the report, along with Pete Grozny’s.
“You’re right Susan, but maybe that tells us more than we think,” Jim Shelton said. “Casey, you said you thought the Russians might have something to do with sabotaging your truck. And you deduced this because of the threat you received that came out of Saint Petersburg.”
“Yes, sir,” Casey said.
Jim held up a hand, informing Casey that Jim was in transmit mode only and did not want or need any interruptions. He was talking through his own thoughts so everyone could hear, but he did not expect any input from anyone else.
“I think Pete and Ed will back me up when I say that this sounds very much like a job that could have been done by elements of the Russian mob here in America.” There were nods of agreement, but no one spoke. “If your friend had been shot at close range, execution style, I would say that the same individuals who hit your truck also shot your friend. But, again I think my co-workers will agree, a sniper shooting at distance, in heavy rain, I believe you told me earlier...that’s not really the mob’s modus operandi. Am I right?” Jim looked at Pete. This time he did want verbal input.
“You are correct, Jim. It is not unheard of in Russia, but the Russian mafia elements in this country are not that sophisticated, or capable. They would rather blow up your house, or hit you at close range with enough automatic weapons to ensure the job was done, no matter how sloppy.” Pete now spoke directly to Casey. “I think the first incident with your truck was only meant to scare you. If you were injured or killed? Oh well,” Grozny smiled. “But shooting your friend like you say, even if you were the intended target? Perhaps it was someone else.”
“Which brings us back to Israel,” Jim continued. “Now, accusing the Russian mafia of putting a hit out on our friend here is one thing. Saying the Israeli government is guilty of attempting an assassination on foreign soil is something entirely different. We are talking huge political ramifications if that’s the case. Why would Israel take that risk?”
“They’ve done it in the past,” Casey argued. “So have we.”
“Agreed. But the world is not the same place it was thirty years ago,” Jim said.
“No, it’s much more unpredictable,” Grozny said.
“And more dangerous,” Casey added.
“That may be the case,” Jim said, “but sanctioned assassinations between Western powers is not the same as a terrorist with a suicide vest.”
“Tactics,” Casey said to himself, but loud enough for those around him to hear.
“Call it what you will,” Jim said. “I’m not ready to start making accusations of this magnitude until we have more evidence, whether hard facts or solid deductions. That means we need to play out the possible reasons Israel would have for behaving this way. We agree, well most of us agree, that Israel had a valid reason for hijacking the Baltic Venture—to stop the cargo of S-300 missiles stolen from Russia from ever getting into the hands of the Iranians. We made that case public on Friday in our report. Going on the assumption that the Israelis read Mr. Shenk’s theories of their involvement, which did not include the conclusion that Israel was responsible for the hijacking, what was said that made them feel Casey was a threat to their country?”
No one in the room said a word. A few people traded glances, while everyone ran the question through their minds. The answer was more important than merely finding a plausible reason for Israel to decide that keeping their involvement with the Baltic Venture quiet was worth having a small-time blogger in America killed. Specifically, by knowing that answer, they might better understand the stakes of the game being played. Some of them, like Jim Shelton and Pete Grozny, knew the “game” of geopolitical analysis on any scale often had very real consequences in the outside world. At times, that meant helping to shape the opinions and actions of international decision-makers. Other times the consequences were more personal. And not always good. That was precisely what Casey was finding out the hard way.
“What if the missiles are just a smoke screen?” Susan asked, breaking the silence.
“How so?” Jim asked.
Susan collected her thoughts before she spoke. The others turned to face her, awaiting the explanation. “Israel didn’t want Iran to get their hands on the S-300 missiles. That’s understood—balance of power and all that. So they take matters into their own hands and stop the shipment by hijacking the vessel that was carrying them. They even waited until they had control of the ship before they told the Russians about it. Before, we thought that was probably to buy them time, as well as to give them something tangible to hold over the Russians’ heads before the talks in Ankara. That may still be the case, and it makes perfect sense, but what if there is something else going on here? Something Israel was afraid Casey would find out about if he kept digging deeper?”
“Like what?” George asked from behind her.
“I don’t know. That’s the problem,” Susan said. “I think we’re missing something, and I don’t know where to begin looking. But whatever it is we’re not seeing, I think it is big enough, or damaging enough, that Israel would resort to conducting an assassination on U.S. soil to keep it quiet.”
A light came on in Casey’s head. “Maybe that’s it,” he said out loud, but more to himself than anyone else. “I didn’t follow it because I guess I had too much shit in my head.”
“You want to share with the rest of us?” Jim asked, smiling.
“Yeah, uh, yes, sir. Susan, you just mentioned the talks in Ankara. When are those? Next week?”
“In two weeks,” George offered.
“Whatever,” Casey said. He looked at Susan and added, “You said the Israelis wanted something to hold over the Russians’ heads.”
“To influence them not to support Iran’s developing nuclear program,” Susan said.
“Right. And that’s the missing thing. Iran’s nuclear program,” Casey said. “Sure, Israel doesn’t want Iran to be able to defend itself. It wants the Islamic Republic to remain vulnerable to air strikes, whether from the U.S., Israel, whoever. The point is, if Iran feels vulnerable to attack, their rhetoric can be dealt with as just that, rhetoric. But if Iran is confident they can back up that rhetoric and deal with the consequences, maybe flex their muscle a bit in the region, and then we’re dealing with a different set of rules. That’s just basic politico-military logic. But what in Iran’s past behavior would lead any of us to believe that without a beefed up air defense, they won’t continue to push the envelope?”
Casey answered his own question. “Nothing. And nobody believes otherwise. Not the United States, not the UN, not even Israel. Especially Israel. Iran will continue to develop a nuclear capability regardless of the outcome of the nuke talks. Would it be easier if there were no new sanctions put on them? Of course. But they will still continue to build centrifuges and enrich uranium. It’s just a question of how much, and under whose scrutiny. Correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t that what Iran wants? I mean, in the end, they need nuclear power. They need it for all kinds of reasons. What the P5+1 is looking to do, at least our president is hoping they will agree on, is to let Iran pursue the development of nuclear power, but not nuclear weapons.”
“Even if they do agree to strict monitoring, and if they vow on paper not to build any nuclear weapons, they will still try to build a nuclear arsenal in secret,” Oscar pointed out.
“Exactly,” Casey said, pointing to Oscar as if he just won the bonus prize. Casey was truly enjoying himself. “And that is precisely what Israel believes. It is what they are deathly afraid of, in fact. If the international communi
ty gives Iran the go-ahead to develop a nuclear capability, Israel will forever be sleeping with one eye open, knowing that it is only a matter of time before Iran manipulates their sanctioned nuclear activity for the creation of a nuclear bomb, or missile, or whatever you want to imagine. If the group in Ankara condemns the Iranian program, then at least there is a codified international consensus that no one wants to see Iran have nuclear material of any kind. Essentially we are right back to where we are now. A political teeter-totter of give and take, yes, but one everybody is at least used to living with by now.”
“So what does this have to do with the Baltic Venture then?” Ed Hanson asked.
“It means Israel didn’t just want to keep the Iranians from getting the missiles, it wanted to make Iran appear untrustworthy. If Iran can’t be trusted to abide by the sanctions against them for importing military weapons, what’s to say they will follow the rules of the IAEA or the Non-Proliferation Treaty?” Susan asked.
“By stopping the missiles, Israel ensures Iran doesn’t get them,” Jim said. “And by publicly announcing that there was such a shipment, they damage Iran’s chances of getting agreement in Ankara. But there’s a problem. Israel hasn’t made any such announcement. And you can bet your ass the Russians won’t say anything. I think maybe our initial analysis of Israel trying to influence Russia was a bit naive, after what we have just heard, but until Israel comes out and wags its finger at Iran for trying to buy Russian missiles, we’re just guessing.”
“And that still doesn’t justify trying to kill Mr. Shenk,” Pete Grozny said. “If Israel makes the missile shipment public, of which I have no doubt that they will, then they will have admitted as much as Mr. Shenk, and IWG for that matter, accused them and all sides involved with doing. I fail to see the logic.”
“And that’s the other problem, sir,” Casey said. “You’re exactly right. There is no justification. At least not a sane one. Which means there’s more to the Baltic Venture story than we know—something else that Israel thinks will prevent Iran’s sanctioned inclusion into the club of nuclear nations. I don’t know what that something is, but the answer is on that ship.”
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