“I suppose that’s true, Ma’am. But they would have to hit pretty close together, before the engines quit and the debris falls out of hyperspace. Also, I would expect their point-defense kill rates against the picket ships to go up as they gain experience.”
“OK, that’s reasonable. I hope these numbers hold up. Nineteen thousand ships can still cause a lot of damage in Jasmine.”
“Yes, Ma’am. But there are still two more waves to go.”
In the third wave of Espinoza’s hyperspace attacks, fifty thousand Sintaran picket ships slammed into the formation of nineteen thousand surviving DP warships. Eight thousand DP warships escaped that encounter, with twenty-four thousand Sintaran picket ships surviving to turn around and follow the DP force.
The fourth wave saw twenty-five thousand Sintaran picket ships attack the eight thousand DP survivors. Thirty-two hundred of the DP warships survived, while thirteen thousand picket ships passed through the DP formation unharmed and turned around to give chase.
Thirty-two hundred Democracy of Planets warships carried through to Jasmine, with eighty-five thousand Sintaran picket ships in pursuit.
Thirty-two hundred DP warships dropped out of hyperspace into the Jasmine system, capital planet of the Kingdom of Jasmine. There was no one within their firing range, the picket ships being in close orbit around the distant planet and the huge Sintaran fleet they could see on their sensors being well outside their firing range. The surviving flag officers, all rear admirals, spent precious minutes trying to figure out who had survived and who was in command.
Two minutes after the DP warships arrived, eighty-five thousand Sintaran picket ships down-transitioned from hyperspace and immediately went to ten gravities acceleration toward the remnants of Admiral Ito’s invasion force.
After that great wave washed over the Democracy of Planets warships, there was nothing left of them but debris.
In the Battle of Jasmine, the Democracy of Planets lost one hundred thousand warships in all classes, together with one hundred and sixty-five million men. The Sintaran Empire lost a total of one hundred and seventy-five thousand picket ships, but no Imperial Navy spacers were lost.
The tonnage losses were most telling, though. In tonnage, the Democracy of Planets lost three billion tons of warships, while the Sintaran Empire lost a bit less than nine million tons of picket ships.
Espinoza sent a message to Jared Denny after the Battle of Jasmine.
Espinoza to Denny: Battle of Jasmine. Observed kill ratio, equal forces: 54%. Observed losses to enemy point-defense, equal forces: 27%. Tonnage ratio of losses: over 300 to 1. Gracias, Senor Denny.
She received an immediate response.
Denny to Espinoza: Da nada, Almirante Espinoza. Felicidades.
The Aftermath Of Jasmine
It was Sunday brunch with the Saarets after the Battle of Jasmine. The meal was concluded, the coffee served, and the staff and the Guardsmen had been dismissed.
“OK, this week I’m going to start the business talk,” Suzanne said. “What exactly happened in Jasmine, Bobby?”
“The Democracy of Planets made an attempt to forcibly annex Jasmine and probably Midlothia. They sent a large force – a hundred thousand ships – way out around Estvia and Garland. That’s about as many ships as Jasmine and Midlothia have left between them, and all the older, home-built designs. We warned them, and, once they saw that force coming, they requested annexation. So when the DP fleet crossed the border, they didn’t cross the border into Jasmine, they crossed the border into Sintar.”
“After that long a trip, the DP didn’t have the fleet drop out of hyperspace long enough to contact headquarters and find out of the situation had changed?”
“No.”
“Clumsy.” Suzanne shook her head. “So the Imperial Navy went out, from Garland I assume, and cleaned their clocks.”
“Yes,” Dunham said, “in a manner of speaking. All of the DP force was destroyed.”
“Did we lose any warships or people, Bobby?”
“No, Suzanne. We did expend a hundred and seventy thousand or so picket ships, but they are small and easily replaced. The tonnage loss ratio was over three hundred to one.”
“The picket ships are little more than engines, reaction mass, a computer with radio and sensor suite, and the uranium bullet in the nose,” Saaret put in. “They only mass about fifty tons.”
“Compared to a manned warship,” Suzanne said.
“Which is, on average across all classes, more like thirty thousand tons. Yes.”
“I see.” Suzanne turned back to Dunham. “So what happens now, Bobby?”
“I don’t know, Suzanne.”
“Well, the Democracy of Planets should have learned a lesson, right? They can’t go up against us, so they should keep their noses clean.”
“Not necessarily, Suzanne,” Saaret said. “The picket ships were our new-generation technology, while the DP warships were their older technology ships. We haven’t run up against whatever their new-build technology is now, just as they’ve never seen ours. We’ve both been keeping them for internal defense, and well out of sight.”
“There’s also the matter of them being, at least nominally, a democracy,” Dunham said. “They have two political parties that are always jockeying for position. They both represent the moneyed elites, and there isn’t a credit’s difference between the two of them on most policy issues. The party in power, though, is beholden to public opinion. Staying in power is much more important to them than whether, say, to participate in a war or not. That makes them hard to predict. We simply don’t know enough about their internal tensions at the moment.”
“That doesn’t make any sense to me, Bobby,” Suzanne said. “How many DP spacers were killed in the Battle of Jasmine?”
“We’re estimating it at a hundred and sixty-five million, give or take five million.”
“My God. And that doesn’t move them?”
“No, Suzanne. The elites don’t go to war. They’re not the ones who die in space. Their biggest concern is what impact it will have on their parliamentary chances in the next election, and whether they can use it to advantage or not.”
“Bastards.”
“Yes, pretty much. So we don’t know if their response will be ‘This proves we should leave big, bad Sintar alone,’ or ‘We should teach Sintar a lesson not to mess with us.’”
“I’m afraid it might be the latter,” Saaret said. “The DP has never gone up against an opponent its own size. That changes your thinking, in a major way, over time. If you always win, you don’t perhaps have the same trepidation about war as you would if you lost once in a while. You get arrogant, and that makes you careless.”
Peters had been watching the discussion with interest, but had said nothing until now.
“Harold Pinter’s government is in trouble, and the Battle of Jasmine is going to hurt him a lot. I’m not sure he can back down. Geoffrey’s point about public opinion is correct. From the news and editorials I’m reading, the DP public doesn’t think they can be beaten. Backing down, then, would be seen as a sign of weakness, not prudence.
“And the situation has changed. With the annexation of the majority of the independents, the Empire is now approximately the same size as the DP in population, but we also have almost three times the number of planets to protect. Pinter may decide the Imperial Navy is now too thinly spread to defend the Empire. If he has a major push for war going on in the DP, he may see no way forward for his government but to pursue it. And staying in power is his primary concern.”
“What a stupid way to make policy,” Suzanne said.
Nobody had much to say to either counter or elaborate on her point, and they sat sipping their coffee until Suzanne spoke again.
“So if the Democracy of Planets decides to use their attack on us, the Battle Jasmine, as an excuse for war, do we win that war, Bobby?”
“Yes. Of course.”
“Even given Amanda’s point
that we have so much more to defend?”
“Amanda’s right in the way the DP may be thinking about it, but it doesn’t reflect the reality, Suzanne. Most of the Imperial Navy’s logistical support is provided by civilian contractors. If I pull the Navy out of a system, there are no space-based military assets left. Any system without space-based military assets is not a concern. There can be no destruction of purely civilian assets, and no bombardment of the planet itself, under the Treaty of Earth, so I simply won’t defend the vast bulk of the Empire. Let them space into a system, claim it for their very own. Who cares? When it comes down to it, they have to fight the Imperial Navy.
“In contrast, the DP has space-based military assets everywhere. Dedicated military space stations, dedicated military spacedocks, all kinds of facilities. Their logistics is vertically integrated, which means the Imperial Navy has lots and lots of legitimate targets all across the DP. The destruction of those assets will leave their navy hung out to dry, because the civilian infrastructure is not sufficient to take up the slack.”
“So you’re going to fight an offensive war.”
“Of course. Take the war to the enemy. Hit their logistics. They won’t expect it. They’ll think I’m going to go after their combat formations, and I will, but not until I cripple their logistics.”
“An army marches on its stomach.”
“Yes. Still true.”
“One last thing, Bobby. What if they break the Treaty of Earth?”
“I don’t expect them to, Suzanne, at least not until they are facing the very real prospect of losing the war. Given their initial confidence, that will be a situation they cannot comprehend, and they could do something just that stupid.”
“And if they do, then? If they are losing badly, and break the treaty?”
“That would mean I am no longer bound by it either, and the repercussions for them then will be more than they can withstand.”
“So you have a plan for that as well.”
“Yes. Of course.”
That night, Dunham and Peters cuddled up in the chaise next to the fire pit in the Emperor’s private roof gardens. The kids had spent the late afternoon in the pool, then they had had supper on a picnic table on the pool deck. The kids had virtually collapsed from a case of what Peters’s mother called ‘fresh air poisoning’ and had gone to bed early.
“I’ve been thinking about that conversation after brunch, and there’s something I don’t get,” Peters said. “Would the DP really go to war over us destroying their fleet in our space?”
“Of course.”
“But that’s not rational.”
“People aren’t rational,” Dunham said.
“But we’re talking about the rulers here. Aren’t they supposed to try to be rational? To make smart decisions, not emotional ones?”
“Yes, but you’re talking about a democracy, Amanda. A vestigial one, at least. It doesn’t make much difference whether Pinter’s party is in charge or Totten’s party is in charge in terms of policy – the moneyed interests that own the politicians of both parties won’t allow it – but it makes a huge difference to Pinter and Totten and their cronies. So they can try to be rational all they want, but their actions are restricted to an envelope of choices their public considers acceptable, otherwise they’re out and the other guys are in.”
“So they’ll kill billions of people because of the emotions of the crowd.”
“And to stay in the majority. Yes.”
“Bobby, that’s insane.”
“It’s not rational, that’s certain.”
“I like our system better. At least you try to be rational.”
“But you can end up with rulers like Garland’s King James, too, Amanda. He wasn’t rational.”
“No, but he was a hereditary monarch. I can’t believe an Emperor or Empress of Sintar would select an heir with his, um, issues.”
“We hope not, anyway.”
“Has one ever?”
“No. Not even close.”
“Well, there you go.”
This meeting had been scheduled in advance, since they had known Admiral Ito’s scheduled arrival time in Jasmine, so they met in person in Pinter’s office. The topic was rather different than they had expected when the meeting was scheduled, however.
“What do we know, Pavel?”
“Actually, quite a bit, Harold. Per policy, all Admiral Ito’s ships automatically transmitted their sensor recordings when they arrived back in normal space. They survived long enough for most of those to be complete.
“They were attacked four separate times in hyperspace by Sintaran picket ships. The picket ships carried out their attacks the way they did in many of the incidents in the Sintar-Alliance War, by the simple expedient of ramming their targets.”
“No use of missiles?”
“Not in hyperspace, Harold.”
“Oh, yes. Of course. Sorry. Go on.”
“The attacks were, as I say, in four waves of decreasing size – a hundred thousand, then seventy-five thousand, then fifty thousand, then twenty-five thousand. The kill ratio of their picket ships against our warships in each attack was about fifty-six percent. That’s the average over the four attacks.”
“So forty-four percent of our ships survived in each attack? Forty-four percent to the fourth power is what? Three and a half percent or so? So thirty-five hundred ships survived all four attacks?”
“Thirty-two hundred of our ships reached Jasmine. Yes. And were almost immediately destroyed by the surviving Sintaran picket ships, who followed along until our ships down-transitioned. They then down-transitioned behind them and attacked in normal space.”
“Did any of our ships survive that wave, Pavel?”
“Of the two hundred and fifty thousand Sintaran picket ships participating in the four waves of hyperspace attacks, eighty five thousand survived to attack our thirty-two hundred ships in normal space, Harold.”
“Ouch. OK, so that didn’t last long.”
“Just long enough to get the recordings to us.”
“Did Sintar attack before Admiral Ito crossed the border into Jasmine?”
“No. They waited until his force had crossed the border. All our ships were in Sintaran territory before Sintar attacked.”
“Have you analyzed the picket ships’ attacks? Is there a pattern there we can exploit in defending against them?”
“There is no pattern.”
“No pattern? I thought these were robotic attacks, Pavel. There should be a pattern.”
“We thought so, too, Harold, but there isn’t. There is an envelope of responses, but, within that envelope, the responses were random. It was almost like being up against human pilots.”
“How many people did we lose, Pavel?”
“We don’t have an exact count yet. About a hundred and sixty-three million spacers were logged as crew on Admiral Ito’s ships.”
“Has Sintar made any response that we know? Have they counter-attacked us anywhere? Ship movements near enough to the border we can see them? Anything like that?”
“No. Nothing. It’s like it didn’t happen.”
Pinter sat back in his chair and ran a hand through his hair.
“Jules, what would happen if I said something like, ‘OK. We screwed up. We thought we were rescuing Jasmine from Sintar, and when we got there, Sintar was already there. It was a rescue mission gone bad. And since it’s Sintar territory now, we can’t exactly blame them for defending it.’ Something like that. I’d have to figure out how to phrase it.”
“Totten and his cronies would call you weak and feckless, he would force a no-confidence vote, which you would lose, and that would force elections. Which you would lose.”
“Really, Jules?”
“I think so, Harold. I can check around and see where our members are, but that’s my gut feel currently. People are going to want us to teach Sintar a lesson for having the temerity to attack the Democracy of Planets.”
&nb
sp; “Well, they attacked our fleet, but it was in Sintaran territory. You can hardly blame them for that.”
“You’re speaking rationally, Harold. Public opinion isn’t rational. As I don’t need to explain to you.”
Pinter nodded.
“I know, I know.”
Pinter sighed.
“Check with your sources, Jules. Try and get the temperature over there. I would really rather not go to war with Sintar if I can at all avoid it.”
“As spread out as they are with all these annexations, you think we can’t beat them?” Isaev asked. “That’s not the opinion of the general staff, Harold.”
“Yes, I know. That’s the opinion of people who have never been beaten. But this Emperor is very good at war, as he’s demonstrated over the past several years. I think they may be wrong. And if they are wrong, it won’t be by a little bit.”
Pinter looked from Isaev to Morel and back.
“I realize this is something of a heresy, but the Democracy of Planets could very well end up defeated utterly in this war. Actually conquered by Sintar. I would prefer to avoid that, gentlemen.”
It was their normal scheduled weekly meeting. Dunham and Leicester met in the small conference room in VR.
“The problem is, we won’t know if or when the Democracy of Planets is going to jump, or which way,” Dunham said. “I think we need to plan on the worst, Admiral Leicester.”
“Agreed, Sire. We have our plans in place, and Admiral Cernik is standing by to modify them as the situation unfolds.”
“Good. And have we relocated our forces, Admiral Leicester?”
“Yes, Sire, though not near enough to the border for the DP’s scanning to see it, or for them to take any alarm or intelligence from it. Large forces previously deployed against the farside Alliance nations are moving to our Earthside frontiers, and we are moving our most capable combat commanders right along with them. We are backfilling the Sector Commander spots with capable people who are perhaps more politically sensitive but who aren’t quite so combat experienced.”
EMPIRE: Warlord (EMPIRE SERIES Book 5) Page 27
