Anwar Sadat and Yitzhak Rabin both gave their lives as they marched on that same road—that long, winding, obstacle-ridden path that only sometimes leads to peace. But Sadat was not killed by the Jews. And Rabin was not killed by the Arabs. Both were assassinated by the very people who once considered them their brothers in arms.
Waging war takes guts, but you have the comfort of knowing that your friends stand beside you. Fighting for peace takes even greater courage, because all too often, you stand alone.
~ 81 ~
By 5:00 p.m. that afternoon—Day 22—the three reserves had moved to within 25,000 miles of Earth’s surface. They were now moving like geosynchronous satellites, maintaining their positions over fixed locations on Earth. One was stationed above the US. Another was over Central Europe. The third was near the Chinese and Russian border.
Conversations with the international alliance had not gone well. The Europeans were frantic. Chinese President Zhao and Russian President Sokolov were angry. They felt the Americans had mishandled things—and that Kilmer’s conversation with ET-1 had been weak and ineffective. Neither of them was willing to allow Kilmer or Whitman to represent them in talks with the aliens. They demanded—and the Europeans and Indians agreed—that a message be sent to ET-1 making it clear that Americans do not speak for the whole planet. At the very least, this might buy time. And everyone—including Whitman’s team—believed that such a message would signal to the aliens that it would not be easy for them to bully the entire planet into submission.
Day 23.
The Earth-side message was sent to ET-1 at 8:00 a.m. on the morning of Day 23. A response from ET-1 was received an hour later.
This changes nothing. D. Kilmer must arrive by May 24 at 5 p.m. If not, the consequences will be dire. We will attack Earth at 6 p.m. on that day.
Zhao and Sokolov told Whitman that this would not end their efforts to engage with ET-1. Whitman advised them against doing anything rash and asked that they coordinate their efforts with the Americans. But it was clear to all three leaders that the level of mutual mistrust was starting to rival the level of shared anxiety.
That afternoon, Secretary Strauss and General Allen briefed the team on military planning in the six areas that President Whitman had prioritized. Deterrence, it was agreed, would require a show of force, along with much more aggressive rhetoric than Earth-side had employed until now. Whether it would work remained unknown, but there was increasing support for bolder action. Defending the homeland would be very difficult if the attacks came from space, but there was no way to say more until it was known what kinds of weapons the aliens would use. Earth-side stood a greater chance if the aliens hoped to invade and occupy. Coordinating with the alliance was getting more difficult. The default was that each country would fend for itself, but discussions were ongoing. There was, however, significant international cooperation in one domain: a robust and multilayered global communication network was being set up in case existing systems were destroyed or disrupted. Fighting in space had been an area of intense focus. Anti-satellite weapons could be used against the reserves, but the likelihood of a hit was slim if the spacecraft could take evasive actions. A more effective approach might be to weaponize rockets and satellites, but there was limited progress to report on that front. One problem remained paramount: Earth-side vehicles could not move anywhere close to the speed of the reserves. Protecting civilian populations would be difficult if the attack came from above, but dispersing a population was an option. There were plans in development for managing refugee crises across the globe, and for addressing the likely shortage of food, water, and medical supplies. The international alliance had been cooperating effectively on these issues, but the potential scope of the problem was beyond anything anyone had ever imagined. Finally, Strauss and Allen updated everyone on the feasibility of a guerilla warfare campaign. If the aliens planned to subjugate or enslave humankind, they would presumably require a large terrestrial presence. Alien capabilities were unknown, but humans might stand a chance of maintaining—for years, even—strong pockets of resistance. Each country was developing its own plan for how to disperse its armed forces if Earth-side lost the war and the aliens attempted a terrestrial occupation.
It was, without exception, the most dreadful meeting any participant had ever attended. No one imagined they would hear references to the Pony Express or the telegraph during a twenty-first-century briefing. But they did.
Day 24.
On Day 24, a rocket was launched into space from a small town in Northern China—it came within 300 miles of the reserve spacecraft that was stationed above East Asia. The mission had two objectives. First, to see how close to the alien spacecraft an Earth-side vehicle could get. Second, to detonate a one-megaton nuclear bomb if the rocket made it to within 100 miles of the reserve spacecraft. The goal was not to destroy the reserve, but to demonstrate the possibility of doing so.
At approximately 10:00 a.m. EST, when the rocket was almost 280 miles from its target, it was destroyed—presumably by a weapon deployed by the alien spacecraft. The nuclear weapon did not detonate.
Secretary Strauss was the only American not to be shocked by what had happened. His counterpart in Russia, the minister of defense, had alluded to the possibility that some such action might be taken by the Chinese, though Strauss had been given no details. Strauss didn’t try to dissuade the action, nor did he report what he knew to the president. Whitman was shocked and angered when news got out about what had happened. She had spoken to Zhao the night before, and he had told her nothing about the planned launch.
At 12:00 p.m., the Americans received a message from ET-1. We do not know the intent of vehicles that approach our spacecraft. They will be destroyed. Do not attempt such an action again. This is a warning. The Americans hastily relayed the message to everyone in the international alliance.
Unbeknownst even to Strauss, a second rocket was already scheduled for launch. Its mission was to detonate a one-megaton nuclear weapon before it reached the location where the first rocket had been destroyed. At 2:30 p.m., the second rocket came within 500 miles of the reserve spacecraft and successfully detonated its weapon. The blast was too far from the alien spacecraft to do any physical damage, but its effects might have been felt.
Whitman was on the phone with Zhao only moments after the blast. Zhao denied having launched the attack. Five minutes later, Sokolov denied it also. The Europeans said they had nothing to do with it. So did the Indians.
At 2:45, another message came in from ET-1:
We warned you against such action. Earth will now suffer the consequences.
~ 82 ~
Two minutes later, President Whitman was on the phone with HQ-2, talking to General Allen. She told him to send an immediate response to ET-1. Earth-side had to buy time. Allen typed on the laptop as Strauss, Kilmer, Silla, Perez, and Lane looked over his shoulder:
I speak on behalf of President Whitman. Let’s not escalate the situation. We do not know who made the decision to launch that weapon. We are investigating. Please refrain from retaliating. Let’s talk first.
Less than ten minutes later, at 2:55, Whitman, Nielsen, Garcia, Druckman, Art, and the chiefs of the Army and Air Force were in the Situation Room. HQ-2 was on the other end of the phone line. Whitman called the meeting to order.
“We don’t know how much time we have, so let’s get started. Do we have any basis on which to predict where or how ET-1 might retaliate?”
No one had anything to offer.
“Do we have any more information on who launched that goddamn nuke?”
Druckman promised that his people would figure it out very soon.
“Okay. What do we want to say to the aliens if they give us a second chance?” Whitman asked.
Nielsen answered. “As I see it, ET-1 has an optics problem now. If they give us a second chance, it might look like they backed down—and whoever launched the nuke might conclude that they scared ET-1 into inaction.”<
br />
“True,” Kilmer said, “but let’s play that out. Does ET-1 really care what we think? If they know that they can annihilate us, why does it matter if we’re sitting here thinking they’re weak? As I see it, if they really are as strong as they pretend to be, they don’t have to worry if we get the wrong impression for a little while. It’s only if they’re not so strong that it should concern them—because they can’t have us knowing that. In other words, the more vulnerable they are, the greater incentive they have to follow through with some sort of retaliation.”
“So, what you’re saying,” Whitman summarized, “is that we are now hoping that our adversary is strong enough to annihilate us. That’s the best-case scenario suddenly?”
“In the short run, yes,” Kilmer agreed. “Of course, in the long run, we hope they’re weak.”
Whitman moved on. “Okay. If they attack, what is our response? Is there any reason for us to escalate?”
General Allen was the first to answer. “I don’t think so. We probably can’t do too much damage unless we attack ET-1 itself. And that’s a bad idea—even if we can nuke it in minutes. If we do that, we are at war. And before we declare war, we’d better be sure we stand a chance against them. I think we need to get them back to the table—no matter what they do.”
“No matter what they do?” Strauss said. “What if they wipe out a city? What if they attack DC?”
“Maybe that gives us even more reason to talk instead of fight,” Allen responded. “We may have to swallow our pride and tell them that while both sides have launched attacks, it’s time for cooler heads to prevail.”
Druckman weighed in. “I’m a bit uncomfortable with a situation where they do something so disproportionate, and we respond in a way that seems weak. Over the last day or two, we’ve been talking about whether we’ve fallen prey to a carefully curated illusion by the aliens. With only one attack on the Moon and a few bombs in Shenandoah—all things we could easily have done ourselves—they have us believing that they can bring the wrath of God down upon us. Maybe they can. But maybe they can’t. It might be a bluff. And as the professor points out, if this is a game of poker and they have a weak hand, of course they will come in over the top and retaliate disproportionately to scare us into submission. That is exactly when we should refuse to back down.”
“That’s a fair point,” General Allen conceded, “but there’s a problem. You’re suggesting that we can forgive a small retaliation by them, but that if they hit us hard, we must hit back. I get the logic—but I fail to see how we do this practically. Hit them how? I don’t think we should attack ET-1, because it’s the only spacecraft we can communicate with, and destroying it would shut down our ability to negotiate—which at some point we will have do in order to deescalate. And if we can’t attack ET-1, what other options do we have? Launch another rocket at their reserves? We’ve seen how well that worked. And if we can’t inflict any actual damage, we haven’t hit back.”
Nielsen nodded thoughtfully. “It seems like we would be stuck in a situation where we have a strong inkling that they’re bluffing, but we don’t have enough chips to call their bluff.”
“Precisely,” said General Allen.
“So how do we get more chips?” Nielsen asked. “How do we increase our options for hitting back?”
“We need more time,” said Kilmer. “There’s no way around it. As of right now, we have four days before I’m supposed to go to ET-1. After that, maybe we get another day or two? Let’s imagine, for the sake of argument, that I buy us a few more days on top of that. Is that enough, General Allen? Secretary Strauss? Are we in a stronger position by then?”
“We’re working on it, Professor,” Strauss replied. “And we’ll be in a slightly better position with each passing day. But ideally, we need months. And I’m not talking about the time we need to defend ourselves against an all-out attack. I’m saying just for us to be able to have a decent chance of hitting one of the reserves.”
“Then I don’t see how we can think about hitting back at all,” Kilmer lamented. “General Allen is right. It’s not practical.”
“What I’m hearing,” Whitman said, “is that the only way to hit back is to blow ET-1 to pieces. I understand the downside, but I want to discuss that option further. I also want to—”
They were interrupted by a message from ET-1, transmitted simultaneously to the White House and HQ-2. The aliens had decided not to attack—but they had also refused to give Earth-side a second chance. ET-1’s response was more nuanced than expected:
If you wish for us to avoid attacking Earth in retaliation, you will have to send Ambassador Kilmer now. You cannot have four more days. Time is up. He comes now, or Earth suffers the consequences.
Silla clenched her fists. Kilmer noticed that he was holding his breath and forced himself to start breathing again. Then he closed his eyes just long enough to remind himself—every problem wants to be solved.
“General Allen… Madam President… Would it be okay if I respond to the message?” Kilmer asked.
Both agreed, and Kilmer took Allen’s seat in front of the laptop.
This is Kilmer. Am I speaking with Archidamus?
Yes, Ambassador. We expect to see you very soon.
Can we please have the four days? We still need to coordinate an international agreement on this.
We have already seen how well human beings coordinate. Have we not? Or did all of Earth decide to send that weapon into space?
You are right. We have not managed to coordinate yet. That is precisely why we need more time.
The recent actions taken by humans have eliminated that option.
How much time can you give?
Less than 4 hours, Ambassador Kilmer.
What if it takes me longer? What if I need until tomorrow?
Then some places on Earth will suffer, starting immediately. And more will be attacked every hour. Even Station Zero will not be safe.
And if I come to you now, you will not retaliate?
Correct.
And there is a chance we can solve this problem entirely?
I am sorry, Ambassador. There is almost no chance of that now.
Then why would I come?
Because if you do not, the suffering begins much sooner. And, you never know, Ambassador Kilmer, maybe you will surprise everyone. Our demand is simple. You will come to ET-1 before 7 p.m. tonight. When you arrive, you will see a platform on which to stand. If you are not standing on that platform by 7 p.m., we will launch a devastating attack. If you continue to delay, each subsequent attack will be worse. That is all there is for you to consider.
The communication ended—and Kilmer sat staring at the screen in silence.
No one at HQ-2 said a word. No words came from the Situation Room either. It was as if everyone on the team was respecting Kilmer’s right to process what had happened and to overcome the shock.
Well—almost everyone.
Secretary Strauss walked over and put his hand on Kilmer’s shoulder. “Don’t worry, son,” he said. “There isn’t a chance in hell we’re handing you over to them. No goddamn way.”
~ 83 ~
The team was divided. Secretary Strauss, Director Druckman, VP Nielsen, and Agent Silla were against allowing Kilmer to enter ET-1. Strauss saw no upside to sacrificing Kilmer; the aliens had made clear that war was inevitable. Nielsen argued that sending Kilmer would mean losing not only a valued adviser, but also the only human being who had built some sort of relationship with ET-1. Druckman again raised the possibility that ET-1 was bluffing. He also worried that the aliens might extract intel from Kilmer regarding Earth-side capabilities and fears. Silla pointed out that if they had any hope of deterring ET-1, now or in the future, it would require pushing back and testing their resolve—and this might be the least costly opportunity for doing so.
The others saw it differently. General Allen reiterated that Earth-side was incapable of effective retaliation, and that if ET-1 ratche
ted up the pressure, Kilmer would be forced to submit to their demands eventually. Perez and Garcia thought Druckman’s notion that the aliens were bluffing was mere wishful thinking. Art was torn, but ultimately came out in favor of sending Kilmer. “I agree it’s risky to hand over someone who knows so much about us, but maybe he can continue to help us once he enters ET-1. If there’s a solution hidden somewhere inside, I can’t think of anyone who’s more likely to find it than he is.”
Kilmer had been sitting quietly, preferring not to influence the decision. Unfortunately, Whitman seemed to be leaning toward keeping him out of ET-1, and Kilmer thought that was a mistake. “I’m sorry,” Kilmer interjected reluctantly, “but General Allen is right. Not sending me to ET-1 only postpones the inevitable, and countless people could die in the interim. As for needing to stand up to ET-1 and calling their bluff, all of you can do that, if necessary, even after I’m gone. Yes, there is a chance that they manage to extract information from me, but as far as we can tell, they don’t even know I’m working with all of you. Apart from that slight risk, the decision to send me costs us nothing—except perhaps one life. I don’t think anyone here would think twice before sending a soldier into harm’s way in a situation like this. You can’t treat me any differently.”
Whitman responded firmly. “No, Professor Kilmer, we can treat you differently. The soldiers will do their jobs, and you will do yours. And it’s not clear that sending you to ET-1 is even the best way to delay an attack. If ET-1 is so desperate to have you, maybe we should inform them that they’ll have to play nice if they want access to you. Either way, I haven’t yet made my decision. Their deadline is 7 p.m., and I plan to wait until 6:30 to make the call. We might learn something more between now and then.”
The discussion shifted to the situation at Station Zero. The aliens had threatened it directly, and everyone agreed it would be unwise to have so many high-ranking members of the administration gathered at that location. Apart from essential personnel, HQ-1 and HQ-2 would be evacuated at 6:30. Strauss, Perez, Silla, and Lane would be flown back to Washington—along with Kilmer, if Whitman decided to reject ET-1’s demand. General Allen would remain at Station Zero, but he would relocate to the outskirts of Shenandoah National Park.
The Peacemaker's Code Page 28
