Dietz returned her salute and then shifted his attention to Arjun.
“Captain Dietz,” Arjun said, stepping forward to shake his hand. “I’m just trying to rein in your data scientist before everyone in the Pentagon loses their shit.”
No name or rank? I’m just the crazy data scientist now.
This was not the first time Arjun had paid respect to senior officers while stripping her of her title and dignity. Grace didn’t understand what she’d done to garner such disdain. It wouldn’t normally bother her, but Arjun’s negative messaging had shaped how she was perceived in the office, and it affected her ability to do her job.
Dietz glanced at his watch and frowned deeply. “Major Lim, unfortunately I don’t have time to lecture you about the chain of command or to help clean up the mess you’ve created for yourself.” He paused for effect. “Instead, I’ve decided to let you sink or swim. If the chairman loses his shit for any reason,” his lips curled, “and I mean for any reason at all, I’ll hang you out to dry, and your career in the Air Force will be as good as over.”
Grace gulped and nodded.
With that, Dietz swung around, walked toward the door, reached for the safe dial, and turned it back and forth, entering the secret combination. The door opened to a windowless room full of people, most of them in uniform. A large lump formed in her throat when she recognized many of the high-ranking military officers from the Joint Staff. Avoiding direct eye contact, Grace walked into the room as if she were treading on eggshells. She took a seat along the back wall behind her boss and surveyed the conference room.
Near the head of the golden oak table was Lieutenant General Richard Myers, a three-star general in the Army. He led the Joint Staff-6 Directorate for Command, Control, Communications & Computers/Cyber at the Pentagon where Grace, Arjun, and Dietz all worked. He was her boss’s boss’s boss’s boss. Myers’ deputy, Rear Admiral Thomas Trevino, a two-star admiral in the Navy, sat across from him. General Lawrence Hawkins, a three-star general in the Marine Corps and the director of the Joint Staff, sat at the opposite end of the table. A large entourage of junior officers, the plus-ones for the principals, was seated against the wall.
When Grace finished scanning the room, she froze for a moment. The chairman’s seat at the middle of the table was empty, and there was no sign of Colonel Martinez anywhere along the back wall. The blood drained from her face.
“Let’s go ahead and get started,” Hawkins said gruffly. “Chairman Waller is running late. He got called to the White House this morning for an urgent meeting on China. I’ve heard from his military assistant that he was about to get in the car and head over to the Pentagon. Barring traffic, he should be here shortly. But I don’t want to waste any time.”
Don’t we need the chairman for this meeting?
Panic settled in as Grace took her seat and realized Colonel Martinez would not provide any top cover for her as he’d promised.
I’m screwed now.
21
Decapitation Strike
SUSAN
0855
Situation Room
The White House
At least two things made Susan rather uncomfortable about the ARC system. In particular, she didn’t like being in the dark about her nuclear options until a nuclear attack was underway. Depending on an autonomous system to devise and carry out launch orders also seemed like a disaster waiting to happen.
“What happens if ARC fails to respond to a nuclear attack?” Susan asked, shifting her legs under the table.
The question had been on the tip of her tongue for several minutes, but she’d hesitated to ask it. She recalled her heated discussion with Morgan, Jack, and Harrison in the Oval Office a week earlier. If Morgan was right about the rationale behind China’s forward deployment of submarines, then the ARC system could be vulnerable to a surprise attack.
I dismissed Morgan’s theory out of hand then. But now it seems more plausible.
“Ma’am, I don’t know what you mean.” Admiral Waller furrowed his brow. “Are you asking about a scenario in which ARC doesn’t function properly? Because we test that every—”
Susan shook her head. “No, I’m asking about a scenario in which ARC is somehow taken offline, and the U.S. can’t respond to an incoming nuclear attack. You just told me we’ve transferred all our nuclear planning, command, and control functions to ARC, essentially putting all of our eggs in one automated basket. That sounds like an awfully lucrative target to me.” She paused for a moment to catch her breath. “What if our adversaries attempt to destroy the ARC system first? What if, for example, the Chinese are exercising a decapitation strike against the United States to take out our command and control system?”
There. I said it.
Several audible gasps rippled across the room, and eyes widened around the table. Admiral Waller jerked his head, Burke made a face, and Elizabeth moved around in her chair as if she was sitting on something hard. Susan was well aware of the political repercussions of challenging the concept of nuclear deterrence, which had practically become religion to many within the defense community. But she was sick and tired of her staff not thinking outside the box.
Even so, she worried about how Burke might respond to her radical question. A consummate Beltway operator, he wasn’t the sort to criticize her to her face. He’d rather scheme behind her back in order to undermine her influence. Burke had to be the one behind the rumored suggestion that she didn’t have what it took to be commander in chief. Susan suspected he was vying for the empty VP slot, and she didn’t want to give him any more ammo.
Avoiding several incredulous glares from her cabinet members, Susan stared across the room, directly down the length of the table, at Morgan, who appeared to be shrinking into the back of her seat.
Time to pass the buck.
“Ma’am?” Admiral Waller said, his forehead creased more than usual.
“Actually, it’s not my idea,” Susan said with a smile. She sat up a bit straighter and then craned her neck to better see Morgan. She made direct eye contact and asked, “Dr. Shaw, wouldn’t you like to enlighten the room with your China theory?”
“Gee, I hope this theory is as brilliant as the last one,” Burke muttered under his breath. “Who is this Dr. Shaw, anyway? Your newly appointed good-idea fairy?” The sarcastic comment sent a cascade of nervous laughter around the room.
Will she perform as I hope?
Susan wasn’t sure it was a good idea to invite Morgan to the meeting and allow her to participate. Given the intense power struggle between her and Burke, she didn’t have many good options. But Morgan had already made one blunder with Burke, undermining her credibility. Would she be able to pull this one off?
Maybe it doesn’t matter.
All eyes turned toward Morgan as they waited for her response. Susan found Morgan to be a rather attractive young woman but by no means stunning. She had long auburn hair tied back into a loose ponytail, youthful ivory skin, and a curvy figure. As her most striking feature, Morgan’s hazel eyes seemed to change color depending on the light and the clothes she wore. The indoor lighting and her beige suit almost made them appear turquoise.
“Um…” Morgan said, looking rather uncertain and caught off guard.
“Don’t be shy now, Dr. Shaw,” Susan said, goading her lightly. “A week ago, before President Monroe’s passing, you were in the Oval Office talking about the potential risks surrounding China’s forward deployment of submarines. You thought it might mean something?”
“Yes, ma’am,” Morgan said, her voice wavering. She rose from her chair and approached the conference table. “But it was just an abstract idea… I never meant to suggest—”
“That’s okay, Dr. Shaw,” Susan said. “I think we need to consider all possibilities.”
Morgan nodded. “Yes, ma’am. Basically, I wondered about a scenario in which the Chinese might be toying with the notion of a preemptive strike against the ARC system. A decapitation strike,
as you said, Madam President. If the Chinese could wipe out our early warning and command and control systems in one fell swoop, China would be free to take over Taiwan or anything else they’re after while the U.S. reels from the consequences of a nuclear attack and is unable to retaliate.”
“That’s absurd,” Burke said.
“Not really,” Morgan said flatly, walking around the back of the room to face Burke directly. “The concept of deterrence is inherently based on the assumption that a nuclear war would be worth fighting under certain circumstances. At least that’s how we’ve justified spending billions of dollars modernizing our nuclear arsenal over the past decade. We’ve claimed to the American public that we need to make nuclear war too costly for our adversaries to prevent them from wanton destruction. Thus, we need to protect our ability to retaliate against a nuclear attack. That logic also requires us to think about how our adversaries might tip the scale in their own favor. Strategically, it could make sense for China to neutralize our ability to use nuclear weapons against them in a war. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying it’s ever worth fighting a nuclear war, I’m just using your logic to illustrate possible scenarios.”
Impressive. The girl has audacity.
Morgan tucked a loose hair behind her ear. “During the Cold War, we thought the Soviets could take out our leadership and command and control systems with only five nukes, removing our ability to retaliate. This exacerbated our worries about a surprise first-strike attack. We need to at least consider the possibility today. China’s two missing submarines each carry twelve nuclear-armed missiles. If, as we suspect, China has equipped them with multiple independent reentry vehicles, then each missile carries up to four ninety-kiloton warheads. Each warhead is four times more powerful than the bombs dropped on Nagasaki and Hiroshima.” She stared directly at Burke. “Sir, that’s a total of forty-eight targets in the United States that could be hit with a massive weapon.”
Susan inhaled a quick breath. From only one submarine.
“Dr. Shaw, you’re punching way above your weight,” Burke said. “And I promise it’s not a good look for you.”
Susan held her breath for a moment. He’s not one to make empty threats.
“But sir, shouldn’t we at least consider the potential for a decapitation strike?” Morgan asked. “What if the Chinese don’t believe that U.S. nuclear retaliation is inevitable? What if China believes it can take out our command and control system from their submarines?”
“That’s still far too few missiles to take on our four hundred land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles,” Burke said confidently.
“Assuming we could still launch them,” Morgan said quickly. “My point is that the nuclear firepower of these two submarines might be sufficient to wipe out ARC’s command and control, thus eliminating our ability to retaliate and making a nuclear attack strategically profitable for China under certain circumstances. I think we need to consider a decapitation strike as a potential scenario.”
“Wait a minute,” Burke said. “First, you suggest the submarines might be defecting, or worse, that the submarine commanders might be planning an unauthorized use of nuclear weapons. Now you’re proposing that China may be shifting its nuclear doctrine to an offensive strategy. Which one are you going to choose?”
Morgan shrugged nonchalantly. “Sir, I think we need to consider all scenarios in the absence of tangible indicators in one direction or another. The defection idea came to me in the spur of the moment, but I’ve also been wondering about a decapitation strike for a while now. After an accelerated effort to develop a robust nuclear triad, China now has a total of twenty nuclear-armed submarines in service. Why so many? Seems like overkill for a pure second-strike capability.”
Burke shrugged.
“Let’s say the Chinese decide to deploy all twenty submarines to locations within reach of the United States,” Morgan said. “That would add up quickly to about 960 nuclear weapons within reach of U.S. targets. That’s enough weapons to take out all of our land-based ballistic missiles and target most major U.S. cities.”
Burke scoffed at her. “The Julang-2 missile has a maximum range of about 4,500 miles. In order to do as you suggest, the Chinese would need to get their entire fleet of submarines out of their base at Hainan Island. They’d have to travel away from their safe coastal positions in the South China Sea, pass by our surveillance sensors and underwater drone swarms, and reach the open waters east of the Philippines. That’s impossible to pull off without our detection. Plus, China usually protects its submarines with a fleet of surface warships and aircraft, making their movements easier to track.” He paused for a moment. “There’s no surprise attack brewing here. Maybe you should sit down, Dr. Shaw.”
“I respectfully disagree with your level of certainty, sir.” Her voice was elevated and wavered a bit. “The scenario I’m proposing has grown more plausible in recent months. Intelligence reporting suggests that China may be getting close to deploying the Julang-3 missile on its submarines. The new missile has a range of about 7,500 miles. That would allow China to hit targets within the U.S., even from its submarines sitting in the South China Sea.”
Burke crossed his arms. “So what?”
Morgan began to slowly pace the length of the room. “If we are to assume that nuclear war is a viable option for our adversaries, then why wouldn’t they consider launching attacks from submarines? For example, China could use such a move as a prelude to an all-out attack with land-based and air-delivered weapons. They could launch both attacks simultaneously. The submarine-launched ballistic missiles would take out Washington, the ARC system, and major coastal cities within less than fifteen minutes, impeding our ability to retaliate. Within thirty minutes, the land-based intercontinental missiles would destroy our silos and the rest of our population centers.”
“And you’re reading all of this into China’s forward deployment of two nuclear-armed submarines?” Burke asked. He turned to Tolley, grimaced, and threw up his hands. “Where did you find this girl, anyway?”
Susan noticed Morgan cringe at the derogatory reference, but she didn’t skip a beat.
Instead, Morgan turned to face Burke head on. “Perhaps this naval exercise is a prelude to China’s grander strategy focused on submarines. Why do you think China has worked so hard to reclaim and fortify the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea despite the enormous operating costs caused by climate change?”
“Why don’t you tell me? Since you clearly think you’re the smartest person in the room,” Burke said. Then he crossed his arms and scowled, indicating he wasn’t going to play ball anymore. If he had anything to say about it, Morgan was a dead woman walking.
Susan suppressed a chuckle.
“Sir, it buys them more cover for their submarine patrols in coastal waters,” Morgan said, answering her own question while continuing to pace.
“This is idiotic,” Burke said, apparently unable to resist arguing with Morgan. “At best, the Chinese could only hope to blunt our command and control systems. A successful decapitation strike wouldn’t be possible without launching a massive strike on our homeland. Even so, the targeting requirements would be extremely high without perfect intelligence on every communication node and command center. And that’s not even taking our mobile command and control assets into account. If the Chinese were to miss just one of our command and control posts or communication links—and all it would take would be one—ARC would give the retaliatory order and launch a massive nuclear attack against China. Then the Chinese would face mass destruction of their own making. There is simply no rational incentive for the Chinese to initiate a first-strike attack with their submarines. Not unless they’re prepared for an all-out nuclear war on their own territory, which is not in their interest.” He slammed his hand on the table. “This cockamamie idea of yours defies the logic of deterrence.”
Exactly. Nuclear war is in no one’s interest.
“Sir, are you certain the Chinese
know about ARC and understand how it works?” Morgan asked.
Burke sighed heavily. “The Department of Defense has broadcasted openly about ARC’s development for several years. We publicly announced the launch of the system five months ago. I’m sure Chinese intelligence agencies have also been gathering plenty of information behind the scenes. How could they not know about it?”
“Even if the Chinese know about ARC, they still might make a terrible miscalculation,” Morgan said. “As part of its information dominance strategy, China has leveraged its own AI-enabled systems to support its early warning and command and control systems for nuclear weapons. Unlike us, however, the Chinese remain highly insecure about their ability to detect a nuclear attack against them. For this reason, they are more concerned with false negatives.”
“False negatives?” Susan asked, raising an eyebrow.
Morgan turned toward her. “Ma’am, a false negative occurs when a system fails to alert for a condition that exists. Due to perceived inadequacies in their early warning systems, the Chinese remain more vigilant toward the risk of surprise attacks than we do. They aren’t confident in their ability to retaliate. The more worried they become about such scenarios, the more they’ll pursue offensive strategies that favor a first-strike attack. If any of our actions heighten their fears, they may also suffer from an itchy trigger finger, causing them to launch before confirming the validity of an early warning.”
Burke whipped his head toward Susan. “Madam President, this is absolutely ridiculous. I can’t believe we’re even entertaining this theory. For as long as nuclear-armed submarines have existed, they have served as a defensive capability, not an offensive one.” He gazed down the table, making eye contact with Susan, and waited for a moment. “Ma’am, you can’t possibly put any stock in this woman’s implausible theories.”
Rescind Order Page 14
