“Not really,” Wyatt said, his shoulders sinking. “Koslov has been traveling on business for the past few weeks for Nesti Oil and Gas, one of his many energy-related companies. He paid a few visits to some tech companies in Palo Alto. But on the surface, everything appears legit.”
“Have you thought at all about what their next moves might be?” Morgan asked.
Mike, Wyatt, and Niko looked at each other with blank faces and shrugged.
“C’mon, guys,” Morgan said. “Think like a bad guy. If you were trying to erode relations between the U.S. and China, what would you do next?”
All three of them said nothing.
Morgan sighed. “Okay, let’s start with what we know. The tweets mess with our communication with China. If we believe they’re real, we think China is signaling the possibility for aggression. Next, the deep fakes make it look like the Chinese police are carrying out a massacre, a direct challenge to our core values—democracy and the right to free speech. This alters our perception of Chinese intentions and may spur us to action.” Her mind began to race with possibilities. “The next logical step might be to shut down our communications.”
Niko’s face lit up. “Yes, they’d want us in the dark. Like Nightfall.”
Morgan’s pulse spiked.
The thumping of feet sounded down the hallway. A red-faced man appeared in the cubicle entrance, his armpits drenched in sweat. He frantically looked between those gathered, zeroing in on the analysts. “Niko, Wyatt, you’re needed in the Cyberthreat Intelligence Integration Center right away. And bring that dossier you were working on.”
Wyatt blanched, and Niko looked worried as they got up to follow the man.
“What’s happened?” Mike asked, standing up to follow them.
“We’ve lost communications with one of our satellites,” the man answered.
34
Use or Lose
DREW
1215
Homeland Network News
Washington D.C.
Drew gulped when The Counter View’s executive producer signaled the show was about to go back on the air.
Tori walked over to him. “Are you ready for this?” she asked, craning her neck as she walked up the stairs and motioned for him to take his seat on the stage next to her.
Drew faked a big smile and followed her up the stairs. “Ready as I’ll ever be.” Feeling numb, he moved toward his chair, but it was like he was walking through a vat of molasses. With each labored step, his heart thudded hard in his chest.
“Just be yourself,” she said, sitting down in her chair and flashing her white teeth. “Like you were this morning after you warmed up.”
Drew gave her a nervous smile and sat down next to her. To his left, Emilio grunted, read his news tablet, and paid him no attention. Behind the glass, the executive producer pointed to her watch.
Tori lowered her head and whispered, “We’re going on air in a few moments. Take a deep breath and relax.”
Drew’s body seized as he tried to think about what he wanted to say in the interview. His thoughts suddenly turned to mush, and his knowledge of artificial intelligence seemed to evaporate into thin air. He couldn’t even remember how he defined it as a concept. His chest tightened, and he found it difficult to breathe.
“We’re ready in five… four… three… two… one,” the cameraman said, pointing to Tori, who began to speak and welcome viewers back to the show.
Only a few seconds under the hot lights, and his armpits were already moist. Drew could barely hear Tori speak against the sound of his heart thrashing in his ears. Her voice sounded strangely distorted and deep, like a recording playing back on slow speed. It was as if time came to a stop, except for his racing pulse. In the distance, he picked up someone saying something about the video clip that had gone viral. Clenching his jaw, he tried to pull himself back to reality.
Need. To. Get. A. Grip.
“Drew, did you hear my question?” Tori asked, leaning forward to see his face.
After a jolt of adrenaline, the focus of Drew’s eyes went from blurry to laser-sharp. Squinting under the glaring lights, he looked out into the studio and winced at the lenses of the cameras. He was distracted by black spots in his vision. Just then, he realized he was holding his breath and not taking in any air. He exhaled sharply and breathed deeply.
In. Out. In. Out.
Inside the sound booth, Drew could see the executive producer making something that looked like a cut signal with her hands.
“Uh, sorry, I might have missed the question,” he said awkwardly, his voice rasping.
There was an audible sigh to his left.
“That’s okay, Drew,” Tori said gently. “I just apologized for cutting your video footage from this morning. I told our viewers about the fascinating conversation we had on the critical role of data for the algorithms that power autonomous weapons systems. I wanted you to know that we’ll be airing the full interview on our website after our discussion.”
Drew felt the blood return to his face and the clarity of his surroundings returned. “Uh, thanks… That’s great.”
Tori studied him with some uncertainty, but he smiled back to let her know that his stage hysteria had passed.
“Earlier today, we promised viewers a discussion about artificial intelligence and nuclear war,” she said. “I was hoping you might help us understand this complex topic in light of today’s test of the Autonomous Retaliatory Capability by the Department of Defense.”
“Yeah, sure.” Drew had been obsessing about the ARC system ever since his morning class and felt like he might have something to say.
“Great, I’ll start with the obvious question,” Tori said. “How does artificial intelligence help prevent nuclear war?”
“Um, I’m not sure it does,” Drew said, furrowing his brow. For a moment, he wondered if he’d heard the question correctly.
“But that’s not what ARC’s developer, Centoreum Tech, claims,” Tori said. “The fifth test of ARC is due to take place today. Meanwhile, Centoreum Tech’s shares are up by twenty percent. For the sake of discussion, can you try to envision the rationale for integrating AI into nuclear weapons systems?”
But I don’t see any rationale.
Drew hesitated to respond, blinking rapidly. His mouth opened, but nothing came out.
Emilio cleared his throat. “Thanks as always for ensuring we cover both sides of the issue, Tori,” he said sarcastically. “I’m more than happy to answer this question while our guest figures out if he has anything to say.”
Drew held his breath for a moment as he realized what was happening. She’s setting me up to debate Emilio…
Emilio smiled at the camera. “There are many significant benefits of AI for nuclear weapons, which is why Congress authorized the development of the ARC system and why the Department of Defense decided to launch the system five months ago. The most obvious advantage of AI-enabled systems is to save precious time. When you’re facing an incoming nuclear attack, every extra second counts to ensure the survival of a nation. Because AI has been integrated into our daily lives, commercial systems, and soon, into our military systems, almost every part of the world now moves at machine speed. We can’t afford to have our nuclear weapons systems function as slowly as they did in the past. The only way to buy more time is to leverage AI-enabled systems, supplanting humans who require way too much time to analyze data and reach decisions.”
“Thanks Emilio,” Tori said before turning to Drew. “You’re a well-known opponent of autonomous systems and have warned us about the risks of something like Skynet from The Terminator. If time is of the essence in nuclear war, what arguments would you make against the ARC system?”
Drew pinched his lips. “As you know, I’m a graduate student at Georgetown. In class this morning, we were discussing the risks posed by nuclear weapons, which we’ve tolerated for almost a century. At any moment, due to miscalculations, false alarms, accidents, or unauthorized use, the world could
stumble into a nuclear war that kills millions of people. AI-enabled systems will speed up the process of using nuclear weapons and reduce such decisions to mere nanoseconds. This leads to a fundamental question… Once a nuclear attack is detected, do you honestly think leaders of nuclear-armed countries will be able to resist an all-out nuclear war? If anything, I’d hope that world leaders would come to their senses and try to reduce the speed of such decisions and leave AI out of it.”
Emilio chuckled. “You should probably keep studying at that school of yours. Because it’s obvious you don’t understand a thing about nuclear deterrence.”
“Your problem is that you think you know too much,” Drew said. “You’re so wedded to past concepts of nuclear deterrence that you’re unable to see how they could fail. I only recently started learning about the risks posed by nuclear weapons. Actually, I received my first introduction to the nuclear deterrence theory this morning. But it didn’t take me that long to see through all of it—the logic of first and second strikes, the need for a nuclear triad, missile defense, etcetera. For most of the Cold War, decision-makers had at most thirty minutes to launch nuclear weapons in the event of a nuclear attack. Thirty minutes to launch missiles that would kill millions of people. Today, that timeframe has shrunk to around eight minutes. Maybe less.”
“See, you’ve just proved my point,” Emilio sneered at him. “If we don’t launch U.S. intercontinental ballistic missiles from their silos before the first nuclear-armed missiles hit our soil, we’ll lose them. The ARC system will help ensure that decision-makers launch our retaliatory attack before this happens.”
Drew nodded. “So I hear. Is that how the ARC system is going to help us? By making sure our adversary suffers more annihilation than we do? Because I’m not sure that’s a good solution. If we’re really so afraid of this ‘use or lose’ situation, then why don’t we just eliminate all of our intercontinental ballistic missiles in the first place? I mean, don’t we have enough submarine-launched ballistic missiles to retaliate on a massive scale within a short timeframe?”
Emilio’s eyes bulged. “If we get rid of our land-based missiles, our adversaries will target our cities instead of silos. We need to keep these missiles operational to absorb an initial nuclear attack and spare the lives of innocent civilians.”
“Really? You think we’re going to spare lives?” Drew smirked. “Once our land-based missiles are airborne, they can’t be called back. That means an all-out nuclear war will begin shortly after our missiles are launched at their targets. And I’m pretty sure if an adversary starts a nuclear war, they’ll want to make sure they cripple our country so that we can’t fight back. Land-based ballistic missiles won’t spare U.S. cities from destruction. Given economic interdependence, a nuclear attack against any of the great powers would end life as we know it for everyone around the world. If we eliminate land-based ballistic missiles, then time no longer has to be of the essence. If we slow down nuclear decision-making enough, everyone might be able to come to their senses.”
Emilio’s mouth hung open slightly for a moment as if he were stunned. “Um… You’re forgetting the other advantage of machines. The ASR system can analyze millions of data points in seconds and provide better situational awareness for nuclear decision-makers than we’ve ever had before. Rather than rely upon our early warning systems for detection of nuclear attacks, now we have strategic warning or long-term indicators prior to the launch of that attack. I’d say that’s a net benefit from the ARC system.”
“Actually, I agree with you. Better situational awareness is a good thing,” Drew said. “But—”
Emilio grinned and pointed at him. “The kid just proved me right again.”
Drew shook his head emphatically. “Not really. That’s only true if the dataset is of high quality, broadly representative, and fits the problem you’re trying to solve or the outcome you’re trying to produce. If the data is garbage to start, then the AI-enabled system’s outcomes will also be garbage. In that case, I’d prefer slow humans analyzing less data over machines analyzing garbage at a high speed.”
Tori smiled at him. “Drew, you mentioned this morning that there is often not enough data to solve complex national security problems. In light of this, how confident are you that the ARC system would respond effectively to a nuclear threat, or worse, a nuclear attack?”
“I have zero confidence in the ARC system,” Drew said.
“None whatsoever?” Tori asked.
“We have yet to experience a conflict in which nuclear weapons were used against a nuclear adversary,” Drew said.
Tori jerked her head, apparently surprised by the statement. “World War Two?”
“The use of nuclear weapons on Nagasaki and Hiroshima doesn’t count because Japan didn’t have nuclear weapons with which to retaliate,” Drew said.
Tori frowned. “Then, I guess we don’t have the data.”
Drew half-smiled. “That’s why I doubt we’re training the ARC system to operate reliably in the event of a nuclear attack. There’s almost no data on nuclear crises, with the exception of the Cuban Missile Crisis. Generally, we can track wartime mobilization, but the nuclear signals of our adversaries remain fairly hidden. That means we don’t have reliable indicators for a nuclear attack and won’t have the so-called strategic warning Emilio mentioned as an advantage of the ARC system. Which means we’ll rely on early warning systems as we always have… except this time, they’re directly linked to our command and control and nuclear launch systems. And ARC can give the order to launch U.S. nuclear weapons all on its own.”
“Well, that’s all we have time for, folks,” Tori said. “Drew, thank you so much for joining us for a fascinating conversation this morning. Stay tuned for HNN news. We’ll see you all again tomorrow on The Counter View.”
The cameraman signaled that they were off air. Emilio remained seated in angry silence.
Tori turned to Drew and said, “That was amazing! You did great. I admit I was worried at first, but then you came alive.”
“Yeah, I did, didn’t I?” Drew felt rejuvenated and energized, almost like he was about to jump out of his own skin.
The executive producer approached the desk to shake Drew’s hand. “Well done. And it looks like someone else wants to talk to you. This just came by messenger.” She handed him a folded note.
His hands shaking, Drew opened the note. His eyes widened when he realized it was on White House letterhead.
“What is it?” Tori asked, looking over his shoulder.
“Um… it’s an invitation to speak with the president at the Oval Office this evening,” Drew said. “And she wants you to facilitate the interview between us.”
“Wow, that’s quite an honor,” Tori said, her face flushing.
35
The Chinese Ambassador
SUSAN
1220
Yellow Oval Room
The White House
For several minutes, Susan and Donghai Chen—her longtime friend and the Chinese ambassador—ate in silence, exchanging the occasional small talk about their families and shared pastimes. Neither of them had broached the fact that the U.S. and China were edging toward a nuclear conflict.
Susan stared out the window at the Washington Monument and took a deep breath. For her part, she’d already been through a war zone and back and didn’t feel up to serious conversation, even with a dear friend. After her disaster of a press briefing, Susan could think of nothing else. Her cheeks burned when she thought about her catastrophic performance, instigated by a young Georgetown student and his incendiary statement about unleashing the Terminator.
I didn’t see that coming.
Now, Susan dabbed her mouth with her cloth napkin and smiled at Donghai, who was still finishing off his last few bites of lunch. “We should get the kids together again soon for a playdate,” she said, still trying to break through the thick wall of ice between them.
Donghai nodded and smiled, revealing se
veral crow’s feet around his eyes. “Yes, yes. That is a fine idea, Susan. We should do that very soon.”
“Do you think Nianzhen would like to come play with Lucy at the White House?” Susan asked. “That would be the easiest option for us these days.”
“It would be our greatest honor,” Donghai said, bowing his head.
Donghai had aged only slightly since they had first met fifteen years ago in graduate school at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy in Medford, Massachusetts. The forty-something Chinese man had a broad, flat face with high cheekbones, pin-straight black hair, and the kindest dark-brown eyes she’d ever seen. Despite coming from different sides of the world, the intellectual connection between them had been instant, and they became study partners and fast friends in grad school.
Sitting across from her old friend, she recalled fond memories of their many study hours in the Reading Room of the Ginn Library. Back then, neither of them could envision reaching the lofty positions they now held.
This was not the first time she’d dined with Donghai in the Yellow Oval Room, the yellow-painted room mostly used for receptions of foreign dignitaries before State dinners. Harrison had allowed Susan to invite Donghai to lunch there once before when they’d celebrated his appointment to Chinese ambassador to the United States. Donghai had become a major player in the Communist Party of China and happened to be a close friend of the Chinese president. If something strange were going on with China, Susan assumed he would know about it.
After chewing his last bite, Donghai set down his knife and fork on his plate, signaling that he was finished.
“Well, we have a lot to cover today. Shall we get down to business?” Susan asked, her voice stilted with formality.
Donghai nodded. “Yes, indeed. We have much to discuss. But before you raise the first agenda item, if I may, I would like to deliver an official message from Beijing.”
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