44
The First Rule
MORGAN
1515
National Military Command Center
The Pentagon
Arlington, Virginia
Morgan perched on the edge of her seat beside Grace in front of a computer terminal. She couldn’t stop clenching and unclenching her fists, and her whole body felt cold.
Grace had already filled her in on the clandestine tinkering by Centoreum’s CEO, the changes Arjun made to the software, and details about ARC’s latest test and evaluation. The more she learned about the ARC system, the more concerned she became, especially about the Pentagon leadership’s false sense of security. Their overconfidence in the ARC system had the potential to lead to grave mistakes in a crisis situation—especially a conflict plagued with as many misunderstandings as the one with China.
Every muscle felt tight and strained. She couldn’t stop obsessing over the meeting at the White House. Or rather the lack of an invitation. The morning meeting in the Situation Room and her dramatic showdown with Burke gnawed at her.
Why isn’t David telling me what’s going on? Did Burke succeed in getting me fired?
Morgan’s gaze shifted back to the screen. Grace was still studying results from ARC’s simulation with China.
“Did you check if Arjun reversed the changes?” Morgan asked.
“You mean the ones he made right before the test?”
Morgan nodded.
A look of dread flashed across Grace’s face before she turned back toward the terminal. “Arjun promised he wouldn’t touch the ARC system again. At least until we had a chance to talk to Captain Dietz and other senior leaders within the J6.”
“And you trust him to do the right thing this time?” Morgan asked, scrunching her nose.
“I’d assumed Arjun wouldn’t have had the time to reverse everything after the test finished. But just to be sure… let me check.” Grace typed several commands into the computer. Seconds later, a diagnostic screen appeared with information on the latest version of ARC. Grace studied it for a moment. Then she exhaled sharply, closed her eyes, and covered her face with her hands.
Fearing the worst, Morgan glanced at the computer screen and tried to read the text. But none of it made sense to her. “Did he reverse the changes or not?”
Grace removed her hands from her face. Her expression was grim. “Apparently, Arjun saved his changes as a single software update. After the test concluded, he only had to enter a single command to revert the ARC system back to the previous version of the software. He must have planned this all along…” The dullness in her eyes suggested she might be losing hope.
Morgan took a deep breath. “But didn’t you say that the CEO of Centoreum Tech accessed the ARC system remotely?”
Grace nodded and bit her lip. “Yeah. He built himself an invisible back door.”
“Then can you check the system event log to see if it was Arjun who reversed the changes?” Morgan asked.
Grace’s face lit up. “If Warren did it, we wouldn’t be able to detect any evidence of the changes. I’m sure he must have figured out a way to hide any of his tinkering. But Arjun would have to access the ARC system from the front door at the Pentagon. That means his actions would show up on the event log.” She began typing quickly.
The event log screen opened up with the long list of incidents coded in a shorthand Morgan couldn’t decipher. Grace stared intently at the screen, her eyes moving from the most recent incidents at the top down toward the bottom.
Then she turned to Morgan with a slow smile and let out a huge breath. “It wasn’t Arjun. He didn’t betray me. He kept his word.”
Morgan put her hand on Grace’s shoulder. “Now that we have that part figured out, let’s focus on fixing this.”
Grace bobbed her head.
“As my first question, I’m wondering why Warren thought ARC would recommend nuclear war with China during the test,” Morgan said.
Grace frowned. “Warren relaxed the system’s adherence to the model of nuclear deterrence, which prescribes avoiding war and relying instead upon retaliation.”
“Yes, but didn’t you say the most important rule of the ARC system is to optimize its ability to retaliate?” Morgan asked.
Grace nodded. “Yeah, we call it the first rule. When I learned that Warren relaxed the deterrence framework, I assumed that would mean the ARC system would produce a wider range of outcomes than we normally would. But I didn’t consider the implications.”
Morgan nodded quickly, an idea forming in her head. “Over the course of history, humans have made many assumptions about how deterrence operates, but a machine is not limited by bias or experience. It is possible that ARC has discovered another move to optimize the U.S.’s ability to retaliate against a nuclear attack. What if the first rule leads the ARC system to prioritize its own survival?”
Grace gave her a funny look.
A surge of adrenaline filled Morgan’s body. “No, that makes complete sense. Listen, if the first rule of ARC is to optimize our ability to retaliate, and ARC considers itself as the fulcrum of that ability, then it would likely prioritize actions to protect itself. Then the critical question becomes this: what if ARC perceives a decreasing ability to retaliate?”
“What do you mean?” Grace asked.
“Well, if the ability of ARC to retaliate is threatened, the system may shift its posture from a defensive one to recommend offensive actions. For example, a disarming first strike against an adversary might become more attractive under certain conditions.” Morgan paused to study Grace’s face.
“Are you saying the ARC system might recommend preemptive nuclear war to protect itself?” Grace asked.
Morgan nodded. “I assume the ARC system recommended a countermove this morning?”
Grace’s expression suddenly became bleak. “ARC recommended an increase in alert status to DEFCON 3 as well as actions to force China’s submarines to the surface.”
Holy shit.
Morgan’s eyes widened. “If ARC detected an increased potential for a decapitation strike scenario, then its recommendation to go to DEFCON 3 makes sense. On the surface, the move could be perceived as defensive, that is, designed to restore strategic stability. But it could also serve to prepare for a nuclear attack… Maybe the first rule is the problem.”
“How so?”
“Think about it,” Morgan said. “We’re asking the ARC system to optimize its ability to retaliate above all else. ARC may not be acting to prevent nuclear war, but rather to defend its survival. If I’m on to something, the ARC system might drag us into a nuclear war simply to keep itself functioning properly.”
“If you’re right,” Grace said, “then we need to tell the president.”
Yeah, before it’s too late.
She glanced at her smartphone and was surprised to see an email from her boss sent to her personal account. Her hand trembling, she clicked on it.
Morgan,
President Tolley has suspended your access to classified information for the time being. You are no longer allowed in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building, at the White House, or in other sensitive spaces without prior approval and an official escort. I’m very sorry to deliver the bad news. I’ll let you know if or when anything changes. Take care.
Best,
David
“What happened?” Grace asked.
Morgan stared at the message, rereading it to make sure she’d understood it properly. “I think I just got fired.”
45
DEFCON 3
SUSAN
1530
Situation Room
The White House
Susan massaged her temples in an attempt to alleviate a migraine. The rhythmic pounding started when she first learned of Harrison’s overdose of chloroquine. The terrible news felt like it should be a tipping point for some major revelation, but she had no clue what that should be. Even as the troubles with China continued to mount, she could think
of nothing else. There were so many unanswered questions.
Was Harrison assassinated? Was his death somehow related to Nightfall? Were the Russians involved? Why did Faye Shaw come up on the FBI’s radar?
For a moment, Susan regretted shutting Morgan out of the White House, even if it was temporary. It may have been smarter to find out what Morgan learned about the Russian connection. But for all Susan knew, Morgan represented the common link across many strange puzzle pieces that led to Nightfall, Harrison’s death, and the disinformation campaign against China. And that meant she was a threat to Susan’s presidency and, more importantly, to national security.
No, it’s better to keep her out for now. Until we know more.
Regardless, Susan could definitely use some of Morgan’s creative thinking in this meeting.
“Ma’am, are you sure you made our demands clear to the Chinese ambassador?” Burke asked.
A flush of anger crept across her cheeks. Susan ruffled at his suggestion that China’s lack of a response might be her fault. Though she’d promised to resolve the misunderstandings with China and had failed to deliver.
He won’t let me forget it.
She glared at him. “Yes. I delivered the message exactly as we discussed. I demanded the Chinese government bring the two submarines to the surface immediately and redirect them through the Northeast Passage. I couldn’t have been clearer.”
After lunch, she’d hoped Donghai might call her with news from Beijing or at least acknowledge that her message had been received by his government. The eerie silence nagged at her.
Her head throbbing, she glanced at her watch. China’s war game was scheduled to begin in about thirty minutes—it would start during the early morning hours on the other side of the world.
Perhaps we’ll get some answers soon.
“And we have no indication that they’ve taken any actions to meet our demands?” Burke asked, turning to Grayson.
Grayson shook his head. “We’ve been unable to pick up any sign of the submarines. There has also been no backchannel communication that the Chinese intend to comply with our demands.”
“Then they’ve called our bluff,” Burke said with a matter-of-fact tone, leaning back in his chair with flourish. “China thinks we’re weak. They assume we’ll do nothing about their incursion into our coastal waters. If we fail to act now, they will seize the advantage again. Just like they did several months ago.” He leaned forward again to give Susan direct eye contact. “We should send out a force of attack submarines to track the missing subs and jam their signals. That will compel them to come to the surface. We need to send China a clear signal of determination, or they won’t take us seriously—not now or in the future. Madam President, this is imperative to ensure effective nuclear deterrence. I can’t emphasize that enough.”
“Your recommendation is duly noted, General Burke,” Susan said curtly. “Before we go after China with our guns blazing, I want to consider why the Chinese refuse to respond or say anything about what is going on.”
Elizabeth sat up a bit straighter. “Ma’am, do you think Dr. Shaw’s defection scenario might have merit in light of these new circumstances? That could certainly explain the silence of the Chinese government. They would want to get the situation under control before telling us anything about it.”
Burke waved his hand around and shook his head emphatically. “Not this again. If the Chinese are silent, then they’re planning to do something we won’t like. We can test the waters by going after the two submarines in the Northwest Passage. Then, if they take further aggressive actions in response, we’ll have our answer.”
“Ma’am, I agree with Elizabeth. There’s something strange afoot, even for China,” Grayson said. “We’ve now confirmed that the China Xinhua News handle was hacked by a cyber thug—a Russian citizen working for a wealthy oligarch with major ties to oil and natural gas. But the Chinese government continues to act like the tweets constitute official communication. I just don’t think we should interpret their behavior as aggression toward us.”
Susan nodded. Although she agreed with Elizabeth and Grayson, she couldn’t let that be known until they finished the discussion. “I called this meeting to review ARC’s test and evaluation and discuss the merits of both recommendations—the countermove against China’s submarines and the decision to raise the alert status to DEFCON 3. Before taking any actions proposed by ARC, however, I’d prefer to discuss all options on the table with my human advisors.”
“I couldn’t agree more,” Burke said through his teeth. Then he flashed a smile that failed to hide his growing frustration. “ARC passed its fifth test with flying colors today, but this one holds by far the most significance. During a heightened conflict with China, the ARC system took actions that successfully deescalated the crisis and avoided nuclear war. For this reason, I have utmost confidence in ARC for providing us with the best possible response to China. We should implement both of ARC’s recommendations without further delay.”
Elizabeth cleared her throat. “Madam President, I disagree. I don’t think we should be so hasty. ARC has zero operational experience during a real conflict,” she said, wrapping a loose blonde hair behind her ear. “The only nuclear crisis in U.S. history where we’ve deviated from peacetime routines was the Cuban Missile Crisis. That means there’s no real-world nuclear conflict data on which ARC can train. As a result, we simply don’t know how the ARC system will behave as we approach the brink of war. I don’t trust it.”
“And that’s why we run the monthly tests,” Burke said, practically spitting at her. “Each month we generate significant volumes of synthetic data from advanced simulations about combat procedures and wartime operations. We feed that data into ARC along with a real-world data infusion from its ISR component. Both data streams help the system learn about the realities of nuclear conflict.”
“Oh, now I understand,” Elizabeth said, her tone laced with sarcasm. “You guys shore up ARC’s lack of real-world knowledge about nuclear war with synthetic data about nuclear war. Yeah, I feel so much better now.” She paused for effect and then glanced at each of the faces around the table. “Look, these simulations are abstractions of the real world and nothing more. The synthetic data will not help the ARC system understand how to operate in a real-world crisis involving nuclear weapons or grasp the stakes for humanity. I predict it will drag us into a nuclear war of its own choosing. I, for one, vote that we dispense with ARC’s recommendations, do some critical thinking for ourselves, and come up with our own response options.”
Critical thinking about nuclear deterrence in this crowd?
Burke’s facial muscles tightened. With a few veins popping in his forehead, it appeared like his head might explode.
“Madam President, for my part, I recommend we increase the alert of U.S. nuclear forces to DEFCON 3, at a minimum,” Admiral Waller said, the boom of his deep voice cutting through the tension.
Susan breathed a sigh of relief at his timely intervention. She didn’t think the spat between Burke and Elizabeth would help ease the headache that was pounding on the inside of her skull like a jackhammer.
“At DEFCON 3, the ARC system would receive another data infusion from the ISR component and improve its situation awareness,” he continued. “New data about the fake tweets and the deep fakes could clear up some potential misinterpretations about China’s actions today. Our command and control network would also become less vulnerable to the threat of a decapitation strike. And we’re also more ready for combat if the Chinese are indeed mobilizing for war. Ma’am, consider it a precautionary measure.”
Susan nodded.
“But the Chinese could see moving up a rung on the alert ladder as escalatory if we don’t provide them any reassurance,” Elizabeth retorted, gesturing as she spoke. “As you’ve noted, going to DEFCON 3 would shift us from peacetime to preparation for combat. Whatever we decide today, I think we should deescalate the situation with China and avoid inc
reasing tensions. We need to get more information about the real purpose of China’s submarines in the Northwest Passage. We’re not going to achieve that by poking them in the eye.”
But I tried diplomacy and failed.
“Ma’am, I’m inclined to agree with Admiral Waller,” David said from the other end of the table. “At DEFCON 3, we have a better shot at detecting any incoming nuclear strikes since additional ground radars are switched over to the early warning mission. Moreover, we improve the redundancy of communications and further disperse our bombers and command and control units, both of which enhance our ability to retaliate after an attack.”
“They’re both correct,” Burke said, regaining control of the discussion. “We would render any chance of a surprise first strike moot.” He paused to give her a crooked, knowing smile. “That means we would eliminate the decapitation strike scenario you were so worried about this morning.”
Susan suppressed a frown, ignoring Burke’s jab. She was about to say something, but Burke continued to speak.
“Since we’re thinking beyond ARC’s recommendations, I might even propose raising the alert to DEFCON 2 to let China know we’re very serious,” he said nonchalantly. “If we did that, we would eliminate most of the vulnerabilities in our command and control systems.”
DEFCON 2?
“Are you fucking mad?” Elizabeth blurted, her eyes bulging at Burke. “You might as well tell the Chinese we’re preparing for nuclear war. Because that’s how they’ll see the mobilization activities. Especially if they’re dealing with some internal crisis they can’t tell us about.”
Just then, Elise jumped out of her chair, her face pale. She stared at the screen of her secure work phone and moved quickly toward the exit. She gave Susan an odd look, pointed at the door, and then left the room.
Where the hell is she going?
Her stomach tingling, Susan leaned forward in her chair and looked directly at the admiral. “Just a hypothetical question… How much warning would we receive if China is using the war game to prepare for a nuclear attack?”
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