‘Okay, so now Roddick has the advantage point to break Hewitt’s serve, and is paying 1.50 to win the match. The next point will either result in game to Roddick or back to deuce. Judging from how the market has been reacting during this match and using experience in these situations, I estimate the payout on Roddick to win the match will change to roughly 1.20 (game) or 1.85 (deuce). This helps us immensely when trying to beat the scoreboard and place bets ahead of the market.’
‘Yeah, but we’re using our computer model to make our bets, aren’t we?’
‘Well, you’re right, but some traders operate as “scalpers”, which means they buy and resell stock on a player for small, quick returns. They do this throughout the match and gradually build a profit without any considerable risk. They see the point go against Roddick and immediately buy into him at 1.50 before the market knows it has happened and has time to react. Then, knowing the price will change to 1.85, they sell what they bought back for an inflated price and the difference is profit. Over the course of a day, week or year, this can amount to enormous sums for very little risk.’
‘What are we talking here, tens of thousands? Hundreds of thousands?’
‘Millions, mate.’
‘So why don’t we just do that?’
‘Well, we do, to an extent, except we have the added advantage of the computer model to guide our decisions. Every time we hit a button, it goes through the model’s matrix. The model makes a purely mathematical assessment and then places a bet. While the scalpers might be a bit quicker than us, we make accurate and profitable gambling decisions on a regular basis because of our model.’
‘Genius,’ I muse, while watching A-Rod execute a backhand drop shot that displays an equally impressive yet different brand of brilliance.
*
‘So, if it’s that simple,’ I say during the next break in play, ‘then why don’t we go trade cricket matches in the Caribbean or football matches all over Europe?’
‘There are plenty of other popular sports that people bet on online. Football, rugby, cricket, darts and basketball are a few. I’ve even heard of dudes trading badminton and volleyball matches before, but all these markets pale in comparison to the tennis market. Tennis is perfect because of the dynamic nature of the game combined with its structured scoring system and the fact that people all around the world love to gamble on it. Deuce allows for maximum swings in momentum. Break points are concise and pivotal moments of focus. You’ll learn soon enough that tiebreaks are the ultimate heart racer: in the space of minutes or even seconds, matches can swing from match point for one player to set point for the other, and then back again, and again. Each point constitutes an incremental change in the match. Each change constitutes a predictable move in odds and an opportunity to profit. This is why tennis is the perfect sport to trade, and why it is the sport of choice for the betting market. A goal in football will alter the odds drastically, but it’s only likely to happen a couple of times per match.’
‘If at all!’ I add. ‘I suppose in tennis you’re guaranteed opportunities to bet because players have to score to progress through the game.’
‘Exactly,’ agrees Jethro. ‘Likewise for points scored in rugby. Cricket is even more ambiguous because of its fickle nature and the way in which wickets can influence a match. Badminton, volleyball and darts are well structured but don’t have the same media exposure or fan base. While all sports offer undeniable betting opportunities, none have the same dependable structure or market liquidity as tennis.’
‘This is pretty impressive stuff, mate!’ I remark. ‘You’ve really got your head around this trading business.’
‘Two years on the job will do that to you, pal. Don’t worry, you’ll get there too.’
In London, Jethro was a bit of a wild man – he travelled most of Europe with me and we had some epic benders together. He was renowned for his excessive, comical behaviour and erratic shenanigans. I knew he was an intelligent guy but two years in the trading business has given him an air of expertise and authority that I’ve never seen before.
*
Sitting on centre court, I realise how much easier it is to trade in the stadium. It has big-screen replays, big scoreboards and a dense crowd to blend into. Jethro and I are laughing as he recalls one of his craziest stories from the road last year. He awoke in a Cincinnati hospital on a double drip with no recollection of the previous night. Apparently, the police had found him lying in a ditch, unconscious. He’d failed to make it home after a heavy night of drinking and dancing on the bar and had ended up with severe alcohol poisoning. Not only did he make his flight the next morning, he was in better shape than all of the other lads, as he had a solid sleep under his belt and zero hangover thanks to the drip purging every drop of alcohol from his system.
Things are going smoothly when, all of a sudden, disaster strikes. Halfway through the second set, we are faced with a major obstacle that prohibits us from trading. The Betfair server has gone down and all markets are suspended. Our phones are rendered useless in our hands and there is nothing we can do. Until the website’s server is back up, we cannot bet. We are suspended from trading and we haven’t even had a security run-in. We stay on court and cross our fingers, hoping that things are back up sooner rather than later. The pitfalls of technology.
‘Why don’t we just use Bet365 or one of the other gambling sites?’ I ask Jethro.
‘Because Betfair is the online gambling site when it comes to trading. They invented it. They were the first online gambling company to facilitate in-play betting, and, because of the enthusiastic gambling population in the UK, it took off, and is still growing with astounding numbers. With such a huge and consistent market, Betfair is the ultimate gambling tool for traders. Without it, we don’t trade.’
‘I know Betfair is massive in the UK, but how did it get so popular in the first place?’
‘Dude, I thought you’d know at least some of this stuff – you’ve really got to get your head around it so you understand what we’re doing here.’
‘What can I say, mate? I’ve never been much of a gambler. I’m all ears now, though.’
Jethro is amazed that he has to explain so much to me. On the other hand, I am astounded by how much there is to take in about this unique industry. As we watch Roddick rain down aces, Jethro explains the intricacies of Betfair to me.
I learn that Betfair is different because the market sets the price instead of a bookmaker or pricing index. It effectively operates as a betting exchange rather than as a bookie or betting agency. You’re gambling your money against another gamblers. There’s no ‘house’ or bank to break. It’s simply your money against another punter’s. If somebody wants to put a bet on a horse to win the Melbourne Cup and thinks the bookie is offering too steep a price, he or she can offer it on Betfair and wait to see if it’s ‘matched’ by another punter. For example, if the bookmaker has Pharlap to win at 1.30 and average Joe punter thinks 1.50 is a more accurate value, he can put any amount (say $10) up on Betfair at 1.50 and see if anybody takes it. If somebody sees that price and thinks it is reasonable, they can match the bet by taking those odds against Pharlap. This is called laying. When you think a tennis player is going to lose, instead of betting on the other player, you may actually find a better price by laying that particular player. If the price is reasonable, then average Joe stands a good chance of having his $10 matched, because the exchange constantly fluctuates with different prices as people match each other’s bets.
Traders use Betfair because:
You can gamble on every single point of the match while it is live.
You can get different odds from a range of different people on the market.
You can back or lay players as often as you like during the match to improve your profit or calculatedly build one up.
You can guarantee yourself a wi
n–win outcome if you trade at the right time(s) during a match.
The bottom line is if Betfair didn’t exist, online sports trading wouldn’t exist and we wouldn’t be sat on court crossing our fingers for their server to come back up. I learn there and then that Betfair is our lifeblood and without it our industry would not exist.
As if on cue, our phones finally reconnect to the server we’ve been bitching about. We’re back online and it’s as quick as that – all systems go. I stop asking questions and focus on the match. We’ve got precious gambling time to make up!
*
Despite the home crowd’s support, Lleyton loses to Roddick, and we head back to court two to relax on the grass and await the start of our next match. This time, it’s a women’s match. The mixed tournaments are cool because you get to switch from the power of men’s tennis to the grace and skill of women’s tennis (and, yeah, let’s face it, I much prefer the view when the women are playing).
The match begins and I concentrate on the action rather than the view. The routine is becoming automatic already. Each player has a specific button and after a few points your brain is programmed to react as soon as they win a point. Your eyes tell your brain, which tells your thumb, which in turn tells the phone who won the point. The rest all happens in cyberspace.
I look up and, to my surprise, clock a few familiar faces in the crowd. A couple of old mates from school have walked in with beers in hand and are watching the same match I’m trading. They’re not close friends but guys I used to hang out with at school and surf with a bit. They don’t see me and my first reaction is to call them over. I want to tell them all about this amazing new job I’ve scored and explain that I’m actually working right now. But I quickly reassess and realise it’s not really an option. I need to be focused on points and I’m also supposed to be keeping a low profile. It’s not a job you can broadcast to the general public. We operate in a covert manner for a reason, and it has to stay that way.
Jethro notices my brief distraction and jumps on it. ‘Concentrate, bro. You need to be getting those scores in quick smart.’
I ignore my old schoolmates and focus on the point being played. ‘Okay, no worries,’ I assure him. ‘But why is there such emphasis on being quick?’
‘You know how I told you there are other traders you’ll get to meet during your time on the road?’
I nod. He has mentioned that guys from England, Italy, France, Switzerland, and even Russia and Estonia also work on the tour.
‘Well, Brizzy is a pretty low-key tournament so you won’t see them here this week, but at the bigger tournaments you are going to have to compete with these guys. If you’re working on centre court at a Grand Slam, there could be up to twenty other traders gambling on court.’
‘Holy shit! I had no idea there were that many traders out there.’ I feel a sudden surge of pressure. At least I’ll have a few weeks’ practice before the Australian Open.
Jethro continues his lecture and I soak up every bit of it – this information is crucial to my future as a trader and I want to be the best I can be at this job.
‘At Grand Slam events, there can be up to twenty different courts running at one time, which leaves plenty of room for everyone. Outside courts have less media coverage and attention. However, this usually results in a smaller amount of money being traded on the market. So most guys will head to centre court for the big bucks. While it offers the most potential profit, it is also the most competitive market. If you make a mistake on a big match, your money is gone. Somebody will swoop in and take it in the blink of an eye. When courts are competitive, speed becomes the key. Everything in tennis happens so quickly that you need to have lightning reflexes to take advantage of the lag. If everyone gambling at home is watching a television feed that is delayed by five seconds, you have just five seconds to take advantage. That’s plenty of time to log a point, right?’
I nod. I’ve been getting the points in comfortably within a second or two so far.
‘Say you hit the wrong button by accident: our computer will throw money on the player who has just lost the point instead of the player who just won the point. A few seconds later, the general public will see the point and make their bets. If your money hasn’t already been taken by another court-side trader, then the market will snap it up.’
This has not yet happened to me, but, as Jethro explains it, I feel another burden settle on my shoulders.
‘If all the other court-siders are using superior technology and techniques, then they will clean up every point and there will be no money left for us to take. As more traders come on court, the competition intensifies. A bet is placed with Betfair as soon as our server receives your submission. If you’re watching a match that five other traders also happen to be sitting on, it becomes a challenge to consistently be the quickest.’
‘So that’s why we sit behind the baseline – for the best view?’ I ask.
‘Yeah, that’s right. Best view equals best reaction time,’ Jethro confirms. ‘Generally, you’d expect to enter a point about a second after it’s been decided?’ he asks.
I assume this is a rhetorical question, so I nod. I’m wrong.
‘This is far too slow,’ Jethro explains. ‘There are a lot of guys out there all vying for the first hit. All traders watch enough tennis to understand and premeditate the construction of a point. They’re putting points in half or even a tenth of a second after each point is decided.’
This blows my mind. I thought it was easy. In truth, I’m pathetically slow.
‘If a big server is playing, then you need to be ready to cash in on those aces. If one of the super-fit and flexible guys is playing, never hit too early on a drop shot – chances are they’ll get to it and maybe even turn the momentum of the point around. If a ball spirals up for a simple overhead smash, never hit.’
‘I’ve learnt that one already,’ I assure him.
‘When a number of traders are all on court premeditating points and hitting as quickly as possible,’ he continues, ‘things are broken down into fractions of a second. If you are 0.01 seconds slower than the guy two rows in front of you, then too bad. You miss out and he cashes in. Most of the money traders win often comes from other traders. They are the ones constantly pumping money into the market, after all. During a long day, mistakes are almost inevitable and there will almost always be another trader there to make a profit from your loss.’
‘It’s a cut-throat game,’ I say, beginning to comprehend.
‘Sure is, and that is why we need to be focused and quick.’
It’s clear now that my job is to reduce that transfer time between eyes, brain, thumb and phone, and be as accurate as possible. I’m going to have to train my brain to be constantly focused on the action if I want to be a good trader.
*
The server frames the ball and it shanks off in an unexpected direction. There’s no way it’s going in. My thumb jerks in response and I’ve hit the button without even thinking. That one was definitely my quickest reaction yet – well under a second.
‘I think I’m getting the hang of this,’ I say.
‘Yeah, that was quick, mate. Now try doing that every point for five matches and see how your brain feels when you finally get back to the hotel.’
It’s a fair point. While this job sounds amazing, it is also going to require a certain degree of dedication.
‘Bring it on,’ I say. ‘I can’t wait, man. I’m really looking forward to this year.’
‘Yeah, you’ll have the time of your life,’ agrees Jethro. ‘Except for in situations like the one Felix is in right now. Don’t look too obviously but he’s just been dragged out by the cops.’
‘Shit!’ I steal a glance just in time to see my new co-worker being walked out the door by a group of security guards and policemen.
�
��Occupational hazard,’ Jethro shrugs.
I stare in shock. I’ve been far too blasé about the threat of security guards kicking us out. There are a lot of things I’ve underestimated about this ‘simple’ job. It is going to be an interesting year indeed.
3
A DAY IN THE LIFE
I roll over in bed and check the time. Eight a.m. Sydney time. No rush. Our workday generally starts a bit later than most people’s. Play doesn’t commence until 10 or 11 a.m., and in some of the hotter locations it can start as late as 3 or even 5 p.m. – suffice to say we never have to wake up to an alarm clock. Most mornings, we’ll make our way down to the hotel breakfast between eight and nine. It’s not unusual to see tennis players, coaches or officials at breakfast. Some of them know what we do, while others are oblivious. It’s funny when you see a player do a double take or visibly recognise you from another location. I guess most of them just assume we’re following the tour for a media company or in some other capacity. Close enough.
I roll out of bed, throw some clothes on, wake up Felix and head down to the buffet, where I see Australia’s next big hope, Bernard Tomic, ordering an omelette. I don’t talk to him as I line up for my own serving of eggs. I’ve never bothered celebrities when I see them, and tennis players are no exception. There is no reason why our lives should intersect. Like all famous and outspoken players, Bernie has stirred up quite mixed opinions from the Australian public. Regardless of my opinion, I take my fill of breakfast and sit with my co-workers to enjoy it. At the end of the day, players are just people. I think they deserve their own space.
Game, Set, Cash! Page 3
