Also, the time beyond which scientific prediction has no access is different for different phenomena. For each phenomenon it is the moment at which the creation of new knowledge may begin to make a significant difference to what one is trying to predict. Since our estimates of that, too, are subject to the same kind of horizon, we should really understand all our predictions as implicitly including the proviso ‘unless the creation of new knowledge intervenes’.
Some explanations do have reach into the distant future, far beyond the horizons that make most other things unpredictable. One of them is that fact itself. Another is the infinite potential of explanatory knowledge – the subject of this book.
To attempt to predict anything beyond the relevant horizon is futile – it is prophecy – but wondering what is beyond it is not. When wondering leads to conjecture, that constitutes speculation, which is not irrational either. In fact it is vital. Every one of those deeply unforeseeable new ideas that make the future unpredictable will begin as a speculation. And every speculation begins with a problem: problems in regard to the future can reach beyond the horizon of prediction too – and problems have solutions.
In regard to understanding the physical world, we are in much the same position as Eratosthenes was in regard to the Earth: he could measure it remarkably accurately, and he knew a great deal about certain aspects of it – immensely more than his ancestors had known only a few centuries before. He must have known about such things as seasons in regions of the Earth about which he had no evidence. But he also knew that most of what was out there was far beyond his theoretical knowledge as well as his physical reach.
We cannot yet measure the universe as accurately as Eratosthenes measured the Earth. And we, too, know how ignorant we are. For instance, we know from universality that AI is attainable by writing computer programs, but we have no idea how to write (or evolve) the right one. We do not know what qualia are or how creativity works, despite having working examples of qualia and creativity inside all of us. We learned the genetic code decades ago, but have no idea why it has the reach that it has. We know that both of the deepest prevailing theories in physics must be false. We know that people are of fundamental significance, but we do not know whether we are among those people: we may fail, or give up, and intelligences originating elsewhere in the universe may be the beginning of infinity. And so on for all the problems I have mentioned and many more.
Wheeler once imagined writing out all the equations that might be the ultimate laws of physics on sheets of paper all over the floor. And then:
Stand up, look back on all those equations, some perhaps more hopeful than others, raise one’s finger commandingly, and give the order ‘Fly!’ Not one of those equations will put on wings, take off, or fly. Yet the universe ‘flies’.
C. W. Misner, K. S. Thorne and J. A.Wheeler, Gravitation (1973)
We do not know why it ‘flies’. What is the difference between laws that are instantiated in physical reality and those that are not? What is the difference between a computer simulation of a person (which must be a person, because of universality) and a recording of that simulation (which cannot be a person)? When there are two identical simulations under way, are there two sets of qualia or one? Double the moral value or not?
Our world, which is so much larger, more unified, more intricate and more beautiful than that of Eratosthenes, and which we understand and control to an extent that would have seemed godlike to him, is nevertheless just as mysterious, yet open, to us now as his was to him then. We have lit only a few candles here and there. We can cower in their parochial light until something beyond our ken snuffs us out, or we can resist. We already see that we do not live in a senseless world. The laws of physics make sense: the world is explicable. There are higher levels of emergence and higher levels of explanation. Profound abstractions in mathematics, morality and aesthetics are accessible to us. Ideas of tremendous reach are possible. But there is also plenty in the world that does not and will not make sense until we ourselves work out how to rectify it. Death does not make sense. Stagnation does not make sense. A bubble of sense within endless senselessness does not make sense. Whether the world ultimately does make sense will depend on how people – the likes of us – chose to think and to act.
Many people have an aversion to infinity of various kinds. But there are some things that we do not have a choice about. There is only one way of thinking that is capable of making progress, or of surviving in the long run, and that is the way of seeking good explanations through creativity and criticism. What lies ahead of us is in any case infinity. All we can choose is whether it is an infinity of ignorance or of knowledge, wrong or right, death or life.
Bibliography
Everyone should read these
Jacob Bronowski, The Ascent of Man (BBC Publications, 1973)
Jacob Bronowski, Science and Human Values (Harper & Row, 1956)
Richard Byrne, ‘Imitation as Behaviour Parsing’, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B358 (2003)
Richard Dawkins, The Selfish Gene (Oxford University Press, 1976)
David Deutsch, ‘Comment on Michael Lockwood, “‘Many Minds’ Interpretations of Quantum Mechanics”’, British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 47, 2 (1996)
David Deutsch, The Fabric of Reality (Allen Lane, 1997)
Karl Popper, Conjectures and Refutations (Routledge, 1963)
Karl Popper, The Open Society and Its Enemies (Routledge, 1945)
Further reading
John Barrow and Frank Tipler, The Anthropic Cosmological Principle (Clarendon Press, 1986)
Susan Blackmore, The Meme Machine (Oxford University Press, 1999)
Nick Bostrom, ‘Are You Living in a Computer Simulation?’, Philosophical Quarterly 53 (2003)
David Deutsch, ‘Apart from Universes’, in S. Saunders, J. Barrett, A. Kent and D. Wallace, eds., Many Worlds?: Everett, Quantum Theory, and Reality (Oxford University Press, 2010)
David Deutsch, ‘It from Qubit’, in John Barrow, Paul Davies and Charles Harper, eds., Science and Ultimate Reality (Cambridge University Press, 2003)
David Deutsch, ‘Quantum Theory of Probability and Decisions’, Proceedings of the Royal Society A455 (1999)
David Deutsch, ‘The Structure of the Multiverse’, Proceedings of the Royal Society A458 (2002)
Richard Feynman, The Character of Physical Law (BBC Publications, 1965)
Richard Feynman, The Meaning of It All (Allen Lane, 1998)
Ernest Gellner, Words and Things (Routledge & Kegan Paul, 1979)
William Godwin, Enquiry Concerning Political Justice (1793)
Douglas Hofstadter, Gödel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid (Basic Books, 1979)
Douglas Hofstadter, I am a Strange Loop (Basic Books, 2007)
Bryan Magee, Popper (Fontana, 1973)
Pericles, ‘Funeral Oration’
Plato, Euthyphro
Karl Popper, In Search of a Better World (Routledge, 1995)
Karl Popper, The World of Parmenides (Routledge, 1998)
Roy Porter, Enlightenment: Britain and the Creation of the Modern World (Allen Lane, 2000)
Martin Rees, Just Six Numbers (Basic Books, 2001)
Alan Turing, ‘Computing Machinery and Intelligence’, Mind, 59, 236 (October 1950)
Jenny Uglow, The Lunar Men (Faber, 2002)
Vernor Vinge, ‘The Coming Technological Singularity’, Whole Earth Review, winter 1993
Index
Entries in bold refer to defining or principal occurrences.
641 argument (Hofstadter) 115–18, 185
see also domino computer
absolute zero 46, 47, 71, 295
abstractions 114–24, 166, 185, 266–7, 447
abstract replicators 95, 114, 266–7
abstraction from experience 16, 128, 129
confusions of abstract attributes with physical ones of the same name 182–8, 343
finitism and 165–6
m
oney as an abstraction 266–7
people as abstract information 59, 130
Achilles and the tortoise 182–3
adaptation
biological 52, 54–5, 56
creationism and the designers of 79–81
of creativity see creativity
by humans as universal constructors 58–60
and knowledge 55, 56–65, 78–81, 88; see also creation of knowledge
the reach of human adaptations 56–65
through technology 57–60, 61, 436; see also automation
Adleman, Leonard 145
Aeschylus 216
aesthetics 367
artistic values 366, 388
and attraction 357–9, 360–65
human appreciation of beauty 353–4, 356–8, 359, 362–7
the objectivity of beauty 122, 353–68
pure and applied art 365–6
see also art
ageing, problem of 213–14
see also old age
agriculture 48, 50, 57, 207, 234, 320, 422, 431, 437, 438, 440
AI see artificial intelligence
Alabama paradox 330–31, 333
alchemy 1, 425
algebra 36, 136, 377–8
algorithms 35, 36, 117, 295, 362
evolutionary 160
see also computer programs
Alhazen 220
alphabets 126–7, 144
Amadeus (Shaffer) 353
ambiguity 308, 448
infinite 405, 406, 409
see also equivocation
analogue computers 140
analytic functions 135–6, 452
Analytical Engine 136–8, 139, 140
Andes 426–7
animal minds 154, 268, 320–21, 358–9, 407, 410
anthropic reasoning 98–104, 105, 177–80, 452–6
anthropic principle 98
as an explanation of fine-tuning 98–103, 177–80, 452, 453
and infinite sets 177–80
anthropocentrism 42–4, 51, 53–4, 75, 111, 155, 446
anti-anthropocentrism 43–4, 51; see also Mediocrity, Principle of
in conceptions of infinity 165–6, 181
in the interpretation of quantum theory 308–9, 319
in science fiction 262
see also parochialism
anthropomorphism 59, 148; see also animal minds
anti-rational memes see memes, anti-rational
anti-realism 15, 313, 314
antibiotics 436
apes/aping 60, 405, 407–9, 410
see also imitation
Appollonius 132–3, 166
apportionment paradoxes 326–33; see also no-go theorems
Archimedes 132, 133, 166
Arecibo observatory 72
Ares 246, 248
argument from design see under design
Aristarchus of Samos 27
Aristocles see Plato
Aristodemus 83
Aristophanes 216
Aristotle 216
arithmetic 128–32, 135, 136, 141, 233, 240, 252, 332, 374
arrogance 45, 51–2, 314
Arrow, Kenneth 336–7
Arrow’s theorem 336–8, 340–41, 343, 345
art
artistic problems 355–6
artistic values 366, 388
attraction of 357–8
painting 219, 356, 357
pure and applied 365–6
as self-expression 366–7
utilitarian theories of 366
see also aesthetics; music
artificial evolution 158–63
artificial intelligence (AI) 137–8, 148–63
chatbots and 150, 152, 158, 160
and creativity 148–63
Elbot program 151–2, 156
Eliza program 148–9, 161
and humour 157
and the simulation argument 455
and the Singularity 456–7
Turing test 148, 149–50, 151, 152–3, 154–6, 158, 161, 320
The Ascent of Man 419, 440–441, 460
Asimov, Isaac
‘Jokester’ 372
The End of Eternity 443
asteroids 207
astrology 42
astronomy 34–7, 58, 68, 443
and astrology 42
and scientific instruments bringing us closer to reality 34–41
astrophysicists 60, 72
as representative of people 98–103, 177–80, 183, 452–3; see also anthropic reasoning
astrophysics 1–3, 6, 46–7, 70–71, 101, 275, 450–51
see also cosmology
Athena 217, 238, 246
Athens 83, 119, 216–18, 220–21, 427, 449
and ‘a dream of Socrates’ 224–5, 229–35, 244–51
Golden Age of 216–17, 254, 386
atomic bomb see nuclear weapons
atomic lasers 266, 290
atomic physics 312
atoms 43, 67, 70, 109–10, 258, 266, 288–91, 298, 301, 302, 312, 324
affected by waves of differentiation 274–5, 298
atomic configurations 109–10
and people 306
of a stratum 293
structure of 445
see also particles, elementary
Attenborough, David 419, 421
attraction 357–60
and evolution 360–65
audiences 14, 17, 19, 259, 279, 357, 369, 403, 409–10
Augustine of Hippo 82
Australia 19, 432
authority
the Enlightenment’s rebellion against 12–13, 22–3, 32–3, 65
and knowledge 4, 8–13, 22–3, 123, 209, 227, 310, 311, 314, 356, 391, 395
see also justificationism
automation 36, 39, 57–8, 62, 76, 135–6, 141, 158, 160, 320, 438, 456
axis-tilt theory 23–5, 26–8, 44, 68, 458
Babbage, Charles 135, 136, 137, 139, 148
Babylonian numerals 131
background knowledge 16
Bacon, Roger 220
bacteria 82, 145, 162, 436
Balinski, Michel 334
Balinski and Young’s theorem 334, 339
Basalla, George 394
‘bat, what is it like to be a’ (Nagel) 367
Bateson, Patrick 320, 321
Bear, Greg 202–3
beauty
and attraction 357–9, 360–65
and elegance 355
objectivity of 122, 353–68
truth and 355
two kinds of 364, 365
‘because I say so’ 311, 391–2, 395
see also memes, anti-rational; quantum theory: shut-up-and-calculate interpretation
Beethoven, Ludwig van 355, 356
beginning of infinity, introductory explanation of concept vii–viii; see also 443
behaviour parsing 407–9
behaviourism 157–8, 163, 316–20
Bell, Jocelyn 38
Big Bang 3, 6, 11, 96, 175, 197, 450–51
afterglow (microwave radiation) 46, 47, 68
in a parallel universe 263
Big Crunch 450–51
biogeography 426–42
biological weapons 196, 204, 205
biosphere 44–5, 48–51, 69–70
automated environmental transformation 57–9
environmental control and the human reach 57–63
environments and knowledge 74–5
evolution and the biosphere–culture analogy 371–2
and fine-tuning of the laws of physics 97
global warming and climate change 437–41
and the problem of suffering/evil 80
see also ecosystems
biotechnology 95, 196
see also biological weapons
birds
and music 356
nesting 89–91, 145
reach and evolution of adaptations 54–5
see also parrots
bits (information) 187
Bl
ack Death 208, 385, 437
black holes 2, 3, 173, 178, 203
Blackmore, Susan 394–5, 402, 404, 415
blind spot 80
Bohm, David 310
Bohr, Neils 308
Boltzmann, Ludwig 255, 312
Book of Nature 4
Bostrom, Nick 453
Botticelli, Sandro 219
Bradshaw, Elizabeth 320
brains 78, 379, 415
adaptation, and knowledge in human brains 78–9, 95, 105–6
add-ons 456, 457
and the doomsday argument 455–6
encoding of knowledge in 50, 375–7
evolutionary process of creativity in 373
the human brain and scientific knowledge 72, 189
and the understanding of abstractions 119
British Enlightenment see Enlightenment: British
Bronowski, Jacob 121, 355, 419–20, 423, 441, 460
Byrne, Richard 407, 460
Caesar, Julius 423
calculus 164, 194
calendars 7
cancer 294, 437
Cantor, Georg 166, 170–71, 181, 182, 195
carbon-dioxide emissions 437–41
Carroll, Lewis: Through the Looking Glass 282
Carter, Brandon 96
catalysts 143
cathode-ray tubes 433–5
causation 118, 300–301, 428
celestial sphere theory 8, 10, 112, 133
cells 39–40, 58, 95, 294, 372, 376, 384, 393
single- and multicellular organisms 144
certainty see fallibility
Chaerephon, and ‘a dream of Socrates’ 243–9, 251, 252, 253
chains
of interpretation 38–9
of proxies 72, 317
of instantiations of abstractions 114–15, 256
of universes 179
chatbots 150, 152, 158, 160
chemistry 13, 43, 46, 57–8, 61–2, 67, 73, 96–7, 142–3, 261, 301–2, 359, 362, 425
humans as chemical scum 44–8, 51, 72, 73
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