Capital in the Twenty-First Century

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Capital in the Twenty-First Century Page 82

by Thomas Piketty

The Illusion of Marginal Productivity

  The Takeoff of the Supermanagers: A Powerful Force for Divergence

  10. Inequality of Capital Ownership

  Hyperconcentrated Wealth: Europe and America

  France: An Observatory of Private Wealth

  The Metamorphoses of a Patrimonial Society

  Inequality of Capital in Belle Époque Europe

  The Emergence of the Patrimonial Middle Class

  Inequality of Wealth in America

  The Mechanism of Wealth Divergence: r versus g in History

  Why Is the Return on Capital Greater Than the Growth Rate?

  The Question of Time Preference

  Is There an Equilibrium Distribution?

  The Civil Code and the Illusion of the French Revolution

  Pareto and the Illusion of Stable Inequality

  Why Inequality of Wealth Has Not Returned to the Levels of the Past

  Some Partial Explanations: Time, Taxes, and Growth

  The Twenty-First Century: Even More Inegalitarian Than the Nineteenth?

  11. Merit and Inheritance in the Long Run

  Inheritance Flows over the Long Run

  Fiscal Flow and Economic Flow

  The Three Forces: The Illusion of an End of Inheritance

  Mortality over the Long Run

  Wealth Ages with Population: The μ × m Effect

  Wealth of the Dead, Wealth of the Living

  The Fifties and the Eighties: Age and Fortune in the Belle Époque

  The Rejuvenation of Wealth Owing to War

  How Will Inheritance Flows Evolve in the Twenty-First Century?

  From the Annual Inheritance Flow to the Stock of Inherited Wealth

  Back to Vautrin’s Lecture

  Rastignac’s Dilemma

  The Basic Arithmetic of Rentiers and Managers

  The Classic Patrimonial Society: The World of Balzac and Austen

  Extreme Inequality of Wealth: A Condition of Civilization in a Poor Society?

  Meritocratic Extremism in Wealthy Societies

  The Society of Petits Rentiers

  The Rentier, Enemy of Democracy

  The Return of Inherited Wealth: A European or Global Phenomenon?

  12. Global Inequality of Wealth in the Twenty-First Century

  The Inequality of Returns on Capital

  The Evolution of Global Wealth Rankings

  From Rankings of Billionaires to “Global Wealth Reports”

  Heirs and Entrepreneurs in the Wealth Rankings

  The Moral Hierarchy of Wealth

  The Pure Return on University Endowments

  What Is the Effect of Inflation on Inequality of Returns to Capital?

  The Return on Sovereign Wealth Funds: Capital and Politics

  Will Sovereign Wealth Funds Own the World?

  Will China Own the World?

  International Divergence, Oligarchic Divergence

  Are the Rich Countries Really Poor?

  Part Four: Regulating Capital in the Twenty-First Century

  13. A Social State for the Twenty-First Century

  The Crisis of 2008 and the Return of the State

  The Growth of the Social State in the Twentieth Century

  Modern Redistribution: A Logic of Rights

  Modernizing Rather Than Dismantling the Social State

  Do Educational Institutions Foster Social Mobility?

  The Future of Retirement: Pay-As-You-Go and Low Growth

  The Social State in Poor and Emerging Countries

  14. Rethinking the Progressive Income Tax

  The Question of Progressive Taxation

  The Progressive Tax in the Twentieth Century: An Ephemeral Product of Chaos

  The Progressive Tax in the Third Republic

  Confiscatory Taxation of Excessive Incomes: An American Invention

  The Explosion of Executive Salaries: The Role of Taxation

  Rethinking the Question of the Top Marginal Rate

  15. A Global Tax on Capital

  A Global Tax on Capital: A Useful Utopia

  Democratic and Financial Transparency

  A Simple Solution: Automatic Transmission of Banking Information

  What Is the Purpose of a Tax on Capital?

  A Blueprint for a European Wealth Tax

  Capital Taxation in Historical Perspective

  Alternative Forms of Regulation: Protectionism and Capital Controls

  The Mystery of Chinese Capital Regulation

  The Redistribution of Petroleum Rents

  Redistribution through Immigration

  16. The Question of the Public Debt

  Reducing Public Debt: Tax on Capital, Inflation, and Austerity

  Does Inflation Redistribute Wealth?

  What Do Central Banks Do?

  The Cyprus Crisis: When the Capital Tax and Banking Regulation Come Together

  The Euro: A Stateless Currency for the Twenty-First Century?

  The Question of European Unification

  Government and Capital Accumulation in the Twenty-First Century

  Law and Politics

  Climate Change and Public Capital

  Economic Transparency and Democratic Control of Capital

  Conclusion

  The Central Contradiction of Capitalism: r > g

  For a Political and Historical Economics

  The Interests of the Least Well-Off

  Notes

  Contents in Detail

  List of Tables and Illustrations

  Index

  Tables and Illustrations

  Tables

  Table 1.1. Distribution of world GDP, 2012

  Table 2.1. World growth since the Industrial Revolution

  Table 2.2. The law of cumulated growth

  Table 2.3. Demographic growth since the Industrial Revolution

  Table 2.4. Employment by sector in France and the United States, 1800–2012

  Table 2.5. Per capita output growth since the Industrial Revolution

  Table 3.1. Public wealth and private wealth in France in 2012

  Table 5.1. Growth rates and saving rates in rich countries, 1970–2010

  Table 5.2. Private saving in rich countries, 1970–2010

  Table 5.3. Gross and net saving in rich countries, 1970–2010

  Table 5.4. Private and public saving in rich countries, 1970–2010

  Table 7.1. Inequality of labor income across time and space

  Table 7.2. Inequality of capital ownership across time and space

  Table 7.3. Inequality of total income (labor and capital) across time and space

  Table 10.1. The composition of Parisian portfolios, 1872–1912

  Table 11.1. The age-wealth profile in France, 1820–2010

  Table 12.1. The growth rate of top global wealth, 1987–2013

  Table 12.2. The return on the capital endowments of US universities, 1980–2010

  Illustrations

  Figure I.1. Income inequality in the United States, 1910–2010

  Figure I.2. The capital/income ratio in Europe, 1870–2010

  Figure 1.1. The distribution of world output, 1700–2012

  Figure 1.2. The distribution of world population, 1700–2012

  Figure 1.3. Global inequality 1700–2012: divergence then convergence?

  Figure 1.4. Exchange rate and purchasing power parity: euro/dollar

  Figure 1.5. Exchange rate and purchasing power parity: euro/yuan

  Figure 2.1. The growth of world population, 1700–2012

  Figure 2.2. The growth rate of world population from Antiquity to 2100

  Figure 2.3. The growth rate of per capita output since the Industrial Revolution

  Figure 2.4. The growth rate of world per capita output from Antiquity to 2100

  Figure 2.5. The growth rate of world output from Antiquity to 2100

  Figure 2.6. Inflation since the Industrial Revolution

  Figure 3.1. Capital in Britain, 1700–2010

  Figu
re 3.2. Capital in France, 1700–2010

  Figure 3.3. Public wealth in Britain, 1700–2010

  Figure 3.4. Public wealth in France, 1700–2010

  Figure 3.5. Private and public capital in Britain, 1700–2010

  Figure 3.6. Private and public capital in France, 1700–2010

  Figure 4.1. Capital in Germany, 1870–2010

  Figure 4.2. Public wealth in Germany, 1870–2010

  Figure 4.3. Private and public capital in Germany, 1870–2010

  Figure 4.4. Private and public capital in Europe, 1870–2010

  Figure 4.5. National capital in Europe, 1870–2010

  Figure 4.6. Capital in the United States, 1770–2010

  Figure 4.7. Public wealth in the United States, 1770–2010

  Figure 4.8. Private and public capital in the United States, 1770–2010

  Figure 4.9. Capital in Canada, 1860–2010

  Figure 4.10. Capital and slavery in the United States

  Figure 4.11. Capital around 1770–1810: Old and New World

  Figure 5.1. Private and public capital: Europe and America, 1870–2010

  Figure 5.2. National capital in Europe and America, 1870–2010

  Figure 5.3. Private capital in rich countries, 1970–2010

  Figure 5.4. Private capital measured in years of disposable income

  Figure 5.5. Private and public capital in rich countries, 1970–2010

  Figure 5.6. Market value and book value of corporations

  Figure 5.7. National capital in rich countries, 1970–2010

  Figure 5.8. The world capital/income ratio, 1870–2100

  Figure 6.1. The capital-labor split in Britain, 1770–2010

  Figure 6.2. The capital-labor split in France, 1820–2010

  Figure 6.3. The pure rate of return on capital in Britain, 1770–2010

  Figure 6.4. The pure rate of return on capital in France, 1820–2010

  Figure 6.5. The capital share in rich countries, 1975–2010

  Figure 6.6. The profit share in the value added of corporations in France, 1900–2010

  Figure 6.7. The share of housing rent in national income in France, 1900–2010

  Figure 6.8. The capital share in national income in France, 1900–2010

  Figure 8.1. Income inequality in France, 1910–2010

  Figure 8.2. The fall of rentiers in France, 1910–2010

  Figure 8.3. The composition of top incomes in France in 1932

  Figure 8.4. The composition of top incomes in France in 2005

  Figure 8.5. Income inequality in the United States, 1910–2010

  Figure 8.6. Decomposition of the top decile, United States, 1910–2010

  Figure 8.7. High incomes and high wages in the United States, 1910–2010

  Figure 8.8. The transformation of the top 1 percent in the United States

  Figure 8.9. The composition of top incomes in the United States in 1929

  Figure 8.10. The composition of top incomes in the United States, 2007

  Figure 9.1. Minimum wage in France and the United States, 1950–2013

  Figure 9.2. Income inequality in Anglo-Saxon countries, 1910–2010

  Figure 9.3. Income inequality in Continental Europe and Japan, 1910–2010

  Figure 9.4. Income inequality in Northern and Southern Europe, 1910–2010

  Figure 9.5. The top decile income share in Anglo-Saxon countries, 1910–2010

  Figure 9.6. The top decile income share in Continental Europe and Japan, 1910–2010

  Figure 9.7. The top decile income share in Europe and the United States, 1900–2010

  Figure 9.8. Income inequality in Europe versus the United States, 1900–2010

  Figure 9.9. Income inequality in emerging countries, 1910–2010

  Figure 10.1. Wealth inequality in France, 1810–2010

  Figure 10.2. Wealth inequality in Paris versus France, 1810–2010

  Figure 10.3. Wealth inequality in Britain, 1810–2010

  Figure 10.4. Wealth inequality in Sweden, 1810–2010

  Figure 10.5. Wealth inequality in the United States, 1810–2010

  Figure 10.6. Wealth inequality in Europe versus the United States, 1810–2010

  Figure 10.7. Return to capital and growth: France, 1820–1913

  Figure 10.8. Capital share and saving rate: France, 1820–1913

  Figure 10.9. Rate of return versus growth rate at the world level, from Antiquity until 2100

  Figure 10.10. After tax rate of return versus growth rate at the world level, from Antiquity until 2100

  Figure 10.11. After tax rate of return versus growth rate at the world level, from Antiquity until 2200

  Figure 11.1. The annual inheritance flow as a fraction of national income, France, 1820–2010

  Figure 11.2. The mortality rate in France, 1820–2100

  Figure 11.3. Average age of decedents and inheritors: France, 1820–2100

  Figure 11.4. Inheritance flow versus mortality rate: France, 1820–2010

  Figure 11.5. The ratio between average wealth at death and average wealth of the living: France, 1820–2010

  Figure 11.6. Observed and simulated inheritance flow: France, 1820–2100

  Figure 11.7. The share of inherited wealth in total wealth: France, 1850–2100

  Figure 11.8. The annual inheritance flow as a fraction of household disposable income: France, 1820–2010

  Figure 11.9. The share of inheritance in the total resources (inheritance and work) of cohorts born in 1790–2030

  Figure 11.10. The dilemma of Rastignac for cohorts born in 1790–2030

  Figure 11.11. Which fraction of a cohort receives in inheritance the equivalent of a lifetime labor income?

  Figure 11.12. The inheritance flow in Europe, 1900–2010

  Figure 12.1. The world’s billionaires according to Forbes, 1987–2013

  Figure 12.2. Billionaires as a fraction of global population and wealth, 1987–2013

  Figure 12.3. The share of top wealth fractiles in world wealth, 1987–2013

  Figure 12.4. The world capital/income ratio, 1870–2100

  Figure 12.5. The distribution of world capital, 1870–2100

  Figure 12.6. The net foreign asset position of rich countries

  Figure 13.1. Tax revenues in rich countries, 1870–2010

  Figure 14.1. Top income tax rates, 1900–2013

  Figure 14.2. Top inheritance tax rates, 1900–2013

  Index

  Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, 456–­457

  Accounting: national, 55–­59, 92, 230, 269; corporate, 203

  Accumulation of wealth. See Wealth accumulation

  Accumulation principle, infinite, 7–­11, 228

  Acemoglu, Daron, 624n20, 639nn45,48

  Africa: production in, 60–­61; income and, 63–­64, 66, 68–­69, 586nn33,34; growth in, 75, 78–­79, 94, 388; capital/income ratio in, 195, 461–­462; taxes and, 491; capital outflow from, 539. See also North Africa; South Africa; Sub-­Saharan Africa

  Age-­wealth profile, 393–­399

  Agricultural land: in Britain and France, 117, 119; in Germany, 141; in America, 151–­152; elasticity of substitution and, 222–­223

  Albert, Michel, 592n5

  Allais, Maurice, 642n17, 641n40

  Allen, Robert, 224–­225, 580n5, 598n4

  Alternative investments, 449–­450, 454, 456

  Althusser, Louis, 655n2

  Alvaredo, Facundo, 17

  America: income and, 63, 68; birth rate and, 79; growth in, 93; capital in, 140, 150–­158; structure of in­e­qual­ity in, 152. See also North America

  “American exceptionalism,” 484

  American Revolution, 30, 493

  Ancien Régime, 104, 106; public debt and,

  127, ­129, 183; in­e­qual­ity and, 251, 263–­264, 341–­342, 480; taxation and, 493, 501

  Anderson, Gosta Esping, 587n5

  Andrieu, Claire, 591n18

  “Annuitized wealth,” 384, 391–­392

&n
bsp; Aristocats, The (cartoon), 365–­366

  Arnault, Bernard, 626n33

  Arrow, Kenneth, 654n56

  Asia: income and, 63, 66, 68, 585n24, 586n34; investment in, 70–­71; growth in, 78–­79, 82, 94, 99; capital/income ratio in, 195; financial crisis in, 535

  Assets: public, 135–­139; prices of, 169–­172, 187–­191, 452–­453, 626n31; financial, 209, 627n43; real and nominal, 209–­212, 598n11; size effects of, 453–­454; taxation of, 518. See also Net asset positions; Wealth

  Asset structure, twenty-­first vs. eigh­teenth century, 118–­120, 122–­123

  Atkinson, Anthony, 17, 18, 343, 581nn21,23, 582n36, 606n33, 610n26, 614n32, 622n60, 638n35

  Austen, Jane, fiction of, 2, 53–­54, 105–­106, 241, 411–­412, 415–­516, 619n36, 620n40, 621n52; Sense and Sensibility, 113, 362, 413–­414; Mansfield Park, 115, 120–­121, 207; Persuasion, 362

  Austerity, public debt and, 541, 545–­546

  Australia, 174, 177–­178

  Autrer, Matthieu, 641n4

  Badiou, Alain, 655n2

  Bagnall, Roger S., 612n10

  Bakija, Jon, 607n42

  Balassa-­Samuelson model, 586n28

  Balzac, Honoré de, fiction of, 2, 53–­54, 207, 411, 415–­416, 601n2, 619n36; Père Goriot, 104, 106, 113–­115, 238–­240, 343, 412, 440, 590n3, 620n43; César Birotteau, 115, 207, 214, 412–­413, 590nn2,3, 615n34, 624n15

  Banerjeee, Abhijit, 17, 611n32, 634n49

  Banking information: automatic transmission of, 516, 520, 521–­524, 529; Cyprus crisis and, 554–­555

  Bank of En­gland, 551–­552, 557

  Bank of Japan, 551, 557, 649n22

  Banks, central. See Central banks

  Banque de France, 649n25

  Barro, Robert, 135

  Barry, Redmond, 620n40

  Baudelot, Christian, 605n20

  Bebchuk, Lucian, 611n35

  Becker, Gary, 385, 616n7, 621n55

  Beckert, Jens, 614n22, 616n6, 637n25, 638n33

  Béguin, K., 598n7

  Belle Époque, 106, 127, 132; capital/income ratio and, 148, 152, 154, 196; income in­e­qual­ity in, 263–­264, 266–­267, 272, 282, 322; in­e­qual­ity of capital own­ership in, 339, 342–­345, 369–­370; age and fortune in, 393–­396

  Bernstein, Eduard, 219

  Bettencourt, Liliane, 440–­441, 525, 642n14

  Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, 626n32

  Billionaires, 433–­434, 444–­446, 458–­459, 463, 623n7, 624n13

  Birth rates, 78–­83, 587n4, 588n7

  Bjorklund, Anders, 631n26

  Blank, Rebecca, 608n12, 640n53

  Boisguillebert, Pierre le Pesant sieur de, 56, 590n1

 

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