CHAPTER 31
WEDNESDAY
Wuhan, China
NATPAC sat in his dark office, looking at the wall in front of him. His computer’s screensaver was flying around next to him. On his desk was an open bottle of Kaoliang. Its rotten taste swirled around NATPAC’s mouth. He was in deep thought.
Did they catch him yet? Does the CIA know about the base? Is that really where he is going? Or did he have some other mission and they just inserted him near that base by coincidence.
NATPAC remembered from his statistics and econometrics studies that coincidences happened more often than most people thought. His statistics professor in university liked to ask the students on the first day of class to write down a list of numbers from 1-20 in what they deemed to be a random order. On another piece of paper he asked his assistant to write down an actual set of random numbers generated from a computer program they had. The professor would look at both lists and would always be able to tell which one was the students’. It was a neat trick that always awed the crowd. NATPAC remembered seeing the lists. He could still remember some of the numbers with his eidetic memory:
List A: 2, 5, 13, 19, 4, 7, 11, 15, 16, 18
List B: 3, 3, 5, 11, 3, 14, 13, 19, 20, 20
The professor could tell rather quickly that the students had created list A. The random number generating software had created List B. This was obvious because list A looked more random. The students tried to make a list where no number repeated and especially where the same number never appeared twice in a row. To the human mind that seemed more random. But an actual random list would repeat the same numbers once in a while and would even repeat two numbers in a row. NATPAC remembered learning that statistically it is actually less probable for the same number never to come up twice in a list. Over a long list, however, the number of times each number appears had to be roughly equal. If the list was a million numbers long, it would be strange if half of those numbers were a “3”. The main lesson, however, was that what seemed like a coincidence – a number repeating itself – could actually happen randomly. A coincidence did not necessarily mean that one issue was related to another. NATPAC sometimes smiled at the paradox. The human mind tried to create a random list. In the process of creating something that looked random he or she made a list that was less likely to be random. Our minds do not understand the complexity of the world around us, he often thought.
So NATPAC knew that just the fact that the Americans were inserting a spy not far from that base did not necessarily mean that they knew about that base. They could have just stupidly dropped him right near it. Just like Americans do everything - without thinking, he mused.
Well it should not really matter, he thought. The KPA had followed his plan and so far as he could tell, it was working. He knew all about American imagery satellites, passing overhead every few hours. He had used his decision trees to figure out a superior plan. If the Americans had seen a heavy KPA presence in the area, they would not have sent in their spy. If they had seen a very light KPA presence, they would have tried to insert him. NATPAC then had jumped to the next branch of the decision tree. If they had inserted this spy, he thought, they would have probably done it at night. If the KPA were to stay inside all day, the latest satellite imagery the Americans would have been looking at would show a light presence. But once the sun hit the horizon, the KPA units could come out en masse and swarm that coastal area. Now to the next branch of the tree he thought. If the spy did try to go to that base, we would catch him, if he went somewhere else we would catch him, if he went back, we would catch him. If he avoided the KPA for a few days, we could still catch him, NATPAC thought.
Arrogant Americans. How did they become the most powerful country? I would have thought stupidity was a limiting factor.
Then NATPAC started to think about bigger things. He had set up something important in that facility. He needed it to be a part of Act 2. He always had it in the back of his head. In Act 1, China would slowly start to amass an absurd amount of foreign reserves by keeping its currency artificially inflated. China already had several trillion dollars sitting around. The fun part began in Act 2. All of China’s dollars did not just need to sit there. China could start buying assets around the world. It would start by owning the debt of various countries, including the US. But it could start buying foreign companies. In fact, we could buy important foreign companies, NATPAC thought. He found himself running it through his mind often. “With our trillions, we could buy American telecommunications and technology companies that developed the latest innovations. We could buy companies that managed American and European ports. We could buy American food processing companies. We could buy oil, gas, and mining companies in both Europe and America. We could acquire stakes in their banks. We could acquire their real estate, even in expensive places like Manhattan. We can even acquire their movie theater companies,” he thought. Of course, “The Chinese Government” would play no known role in this. Companies, often managed by a former military officer or communist party leader, would make these acquisitions. Chinese banks would support them, however, and finance the acquisitions. The government reserves could fund the banks. Few people actually knew one of the more interesting facts about the corporate world. But it never ceased to amaze NATPAC. If one were to look at Forbes’ list of 10 largest companies in the world—based on factors such as revenue, net income, and total assets—three were Chinese banks. NATPAC sat back and continued thinking. Act 2 was brilliant. China could slowly buy out many of its opponents’ assets. Soon they will all be working for us, he thought. Eventually most Americans will work for Chinese companies that are closely watched or controlled by the Chinese government. They are now used to the thought that many Chinese workers are putting products together for them in Chinese factories. Soon they will be putting together products or providing services to generate income for China. The reversal will be monumental.
I must be a part of it. We have to make sure the spy doesn’t figure out about that base.
Just then his door opened. SLOTHMAN walked in, looking jumpy.
“What’s up?” NATPAC asked.
“I think we made a breakthrough.” SLOTHMAN replied.
“I don’t know what I would do without you SLOTHMAN,” NATPAC smiled, “what is it?”
“I’ve penetrated deeper than I ever have before. I’m right in their systems.”
“I’m going to nominate you for the Hero’s Medal.” NATPAC quipped. Of course SLOTHMAN would never get the Hero’s Medal – you had to run and shoot in a battle to get that. NATPAC had heard of the soldiers that received it and their battlefield actions had sounded like fanatical lunacy to him. He heard the Americans had an equivalent medal called the Medal of Honor and the British had something called the Victoria Cross that sounded like China’s Hero’s medal. NATPAC knew he and his men would never get such an award. He did not really care either. He was getting his reward in another way.
“What did you figure out? Any new information?” NATPAC asked.
“I have to finish setting it up. A couple more hours and I’ll have something.”
“OK. I’m going home soon, so call me there if you find anything that can help us.”
SLOTHMAN walked out of NATPAC’s office with what looked to be an extra spring in his step. NATPAC still did not feel comfortable. “A couple of hours” for SLOTHMAN could translate to tomorrow evening.
NATPAC grabbed his phone and called the usual number in Beijing. Despite the late hour, he will be in the office as well, NATPAC thought. He put the phone on speaker because he was too tired to lift the handle up to his ear. The phone rang several times at the other end. Then a voice answered.
“Yes?”
“I’m getting worried. Did they catch him yet?”
“Not yet. They are patrolling.”
“Do you think this operative knows about that facility?”
“You’re the one that’s supposed to figure that out. Did you?”
“Not ye
t. Did they increase security around the facility just in case?”
“Yes. But they are also spread out because they don’t know where he’s trying to go.”
“Can we launch the other mission we talked about?”
“You mean the Snatch mission?”
“Yes. Can our friends snatch that person they were watching? Maybe we can get that person to tell us who this spy is, where he is going, what they all know, and anything else. They need to move fast and get that person to the North quickly.”
“OK. I’ll tell them to conduct the Snatch mission right now. Luckily this is something they are actually good at.”
“Yeah. They can be useful for something. Call me when it’s done.”
Devil's Fork Page 40
