The World in 2050: Four Forces Shaping Civilization's Northern Future

by Laurence C. Smith

  512 As a percentage of GNP, over the period 1880-1913 national investment and national savings were more strongly correlated in the industrialized countries than they were in 1999, meaning that investment today relies more on domestic saving and less on foreign investment than it did in 1913. Pp. 89-90 and Figure 3.3, P. Knox et al., The Geography of the World Economy, 4th ed. (New York: Oxford University Press, 2003), 437 pp.

  513 Just before World War I broke out, merchandise trade averaged 12% of gross national output for industrialized nations, a level not attained again until the 1970s. P. 32, M. B. Steger, Globalization: A Very Short Introduction (New York: Oxford University Press, 2003), 147 pp.

  514 Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World (Washington, D.C.: U.S. National Intelligence Council, 2008), 99 pp.

  515 “Green with Envy: The Tension between Free Trade and Capping Emissions,” The Economist, November 21, 2009.

  516 Nataliya Ryzhova and Grigory Ioffe document hyberbolic assertions ranging from ten to twelve million Chinese already inside Russia to predictions of forty million by the year 2020. Russian migration scholars estimate a current figure of only four hundred thousand Chinese. N. Ryzhova, G. Ioffe, “Trans-border Exchange between Russia and China: The Case of Blagoveshchensk and Heihe,” Eurasian Geography and Economics 50, no. 3 (2009): 348-364, DOI:10.2747/1539-7216.50.3.348.

  517 Ryzhova and Ioffe note thirty-four thousand Chinese labor migrants in Amur Oblast versus an official statistic of just 435. Ibid.

  518 B. Lo, “The Long Sunset of Strategic Partnership: Russia’s Evolving China Policy,” International Affairs 80, no. 2 (2004): 295-309. This contested island was finally ceded to China in 1991.

  519 W-J Kim, “Cooperation and Conflict among Provinces: The Three Northeastern Provinces of China, the Russian Far East, and Sinuiju, North Korea,” Issues & Studies 44, no. 3 (September 2008): 205-227. “Development of Trade and Economic Collaboration between China and Primorye Discussed in Vladivostok,” http://vladivostoktimes.ru/show/?id=48916&p= (accessed March 11, 2010).

  520 In 2004 Turkey signed a deal to send water by supertanker to Israel. The program has since struggled off and on, but Israel has floated the idea of a water pipeline from Turkey. C. Recknagel, “Can ‘Wet’ Countries Export Water to ‘Dry’ Ones?” Radio Free Europe, March 21, 2009, www.rferl.org/Content/Can_Wet_Countries_Export_Water_To_Dry_Ones/1514322.html.

  521 As of 2009 the eastern route is mostly done, the central route is anticipated for 2014, and the controversial western route through mountains slated for completion in 2050. S. Oster, “China Slows Water Project,” The Wall Street Journal, December 31, 2008.

  522 P. Annin, The Great Lakes Water Wars (Washington, D.C.: Island Press, 2006), 303 pp.

  523 Québec premier Robert Bourassa and future prime minister John Turner. R. MacGregor, “A Visionary’s Epiphany about Water,” The Globe and Mail, October 5, 2009, www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/a-visionarys-epiphany-about-water/article1311853/. See also pp. 60-63, P. Annin, The Great Lakes Water Wars (Washington, D.C.: Island Press, 2006), 303 pp.

  524 Modeling studies suggest that the GRAND Canal project would delay spring ice-out on Hudson Bay as much as a month each year, causing colder, wetter conditions locally during the peak of the growing season, a change in coastal flora, the retreat of forests from the coast, and the growth of permafrost. W. R. Rouse, M-K Woo, J. S. Price, “Damming James Bay: 1. Potential Impacts on Coastal Climate and the Water Balance,” The Canadian Geographer 36, no. 1 (1992): 2-7.

  525 F. Pierre Gingras, “Northern Waters: A Realistic, Sustainable and Profitable Plan to Exploit Quebec’s Blue Gold,” Montreal Economic Institute, Economic Notes (special edition, July 2009), www.iedm.org/uploaded/pdf/juillet09_en.pdf.

  526 P. Micklin, “‘Project of the Century’: The Siberian Water Transfer Scheme,” paper prepared for Engineering Earth; the Impacts of Megaengineering Projects, University of Kentucky, July 21-24, 2008.

  527 In 2004. “Luzhkov Wants to Reverse a River,” The Moscow Times, December 10, 2002; N. N. Mikheyev, “Voda bez granits (Water without Limits),” Melioratsiya i vodnoye khozyaystvo 1 (2002):32-34; see also F. Pearce, “Russia Reviving Massive River Diversion Plan,” New Scientist, February 9, 2009, www.newscientist.com/article/dn4637-russia-reviving-massive-river-diversion-plan.html?full=true.; and P. Micklin, “The Aral Sea Crisis and Its Future: An Assessment in 2006,” Eurasian Geography and Economics 47, no. 5 (2006): 546-567, DOI:10.2747/1538-7216.47.5.546.

  528 The Ob’, Yenisei, and Lena rivers dump significant amounts of freshwater into the Arctic Ocean, much of which freezes into sea ice, then eventually flushes out through Fram Strait or the Canadian Archipelago toward the North Atlantic, where it melts, freshening ocean surface waters and thus impeding deepwater sinking of the thermohaline circulation.

  529 The European Space Agency’s first CryoSat satellite cost about €140 million but was destroyed in a 2005 launch failure; a follow-up CryoSat-2 was built and launched successfully in April 2010. NASA launched its first ICESat in 2003 and is building two more ice-seeking satellites, ICESat-II and DESDynI, slated for launch around 2015; a total capital investment of USD $2 billion seems likely for these three satellite missions. For more background, see Earth Science and Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond, Committee on Earth Science and Applications from Space: A Community Assessment and Strategy for the Future (Washington, D.C.: National Research Council, 2007), ISBN: 978-0-309-10387-9, 456 pp.

  530 This paragraph refers to details presented earlier in the book, including U.S. naval exercises off Alaska’s North Slope, Norway’s recent purchase of five Aegis-armed frigates and nearly fifty F-35 fighter jets, and Samsung’s pursuit of a polar tanker vessel to transport liquefied natural gas from Arctic waters. The total amount received by the U.S. Minerals Management Service from energy companies for an Arctic offshore lease sale totaled USD $2.7 billion in 2008.

  531 Arctic Council, AMSA, Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment 2009: 77-79.

  532 From GIS analysis of global map data I calculate the following in square kilometers for the world’s planetary surface area, land extent, ice-free land extent, and ice-free/permafrost-free land extent, respectively. World: 508,779,504 km2, 147,263,072 km2, 132,801,596 km2 and 109,508,640 km2, respectively. North of 45° N: 74,697,936 km2, 40,364, 452 km2, 38,212,960 km2, and 17,100,072 km2. North of Arctic Circle: 21,239,512 km2, 7,930,424 km2, 6,159,648 km2, and 271,632 km2. By all measures, we see the Arctic proper (between 66.55º and 90º N latitude) is truly a tiny place.

  533 This particular geographic definition of the “Arctic,” proposed in the 2004 Arctic Human Development Report, encompasses all of Alaska; Canada north of 60° N latitude together with northern Québec and Labrador; all of Greenland and the Faroe Islands; Iceland; the northernmost counties of Norway, Sweden, and Finland; and in Russia the Murmansk Oblast, the Nenets, Yamalo-Nenets, Taimyr, and Chukotka autonomous okrugs, Vorkuta City in the Komi Republic, Noril’sk and Igarka in Krasnoyarsky Kray, and parts of the Sakha Republic lying closest to the Arctic Circle. Pp. 17-18, Arctic Human Development Report (Akureyri, Iceland: Stefansson Arctic Institute, 2004), 242 pp.

  534 USA North, defined as states touching or lying north of 45° N latitude. Alaska, Idaho, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, New Hampshire, New York, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, Washington, and Wisconsin all graze the 45th parallel and are contained within a NORC country as per the “North” definition in Chapter 1. Excluding New York State would lower the NORC totals to $5.944 trillion GDP, 31,837,087 km2 land area, and 235,059,000 people.

  535 The so-called “resource curse” refers to empirical evidence that states with abundant resource wealth perform less well than resource-poor ones, but there is little consensus about why this is. See M. L. Ross, “The Political Economy of the Resource Curse,” World Politics 51 (1999): 297-322; C. N. Brunnschweiler, E. H. Bulte, “The Resource Curse Revisited and Revised: A Tale of Paradoxes and Red
Herrings,” Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 55, no. 3 (2008): 248-264.

  536 The bulk of the Arctic economy is based on commodity exports. Public services comprise 20%-40% GDP, transportation accounts for some 5%-12%, with tourism and retail significant only in particular areas. In 2001 the total Arctic economy was U.S. $230 billion (in purchasing power parity), with Arctic defined as all of Alaska (USA); Yukon, NWT, Nunavut, Nunavik, and Labrador (Canada); Greenland and the Faroe Islands (Denmark); Iceland; Nordland, Troms, Finnmark, and Svalbard (Norway); Västerbotten and Norrbotten (Sweden); Oulu and Lapland (Finland); and the republics of Karelia, Komi, and Sakha; the oblasts of Arkhangelsk, Murmansk, Tyumen, Kamchatka, and Magadan; the autonomous okrugs of Nenets, Khanty-Mansii, Yamal-Nenets, Krasnoyarsk Krai, Taimyr, Evenk, Koryak, and Chukchi (Russian Federation). “Public services” includes public administration, health care, and education. “Economic Systems,” pp. 59-84 of Arctic Human Development Report (Akureyri, Iceland: Stefansson Arctic Institute, 2004), 242 pp.

  537 NTCL, founded in 1934 as Northern Waterways Limited, was purchased in 1985 by the Inuvialuit Development Corporation and Nunasi Corporation, making it a 100% private, aboriginal-owned company. For more, see www.ntcl.com/about-us/history-timeline.html.

  CREDITS

  Frontmatter maps by author.

  Page 51. Musical lyrics from “Whoever You Are” by Tommy C. Jordan and Greg Kurstin © 1996 Nudo Music/Warner Bros. Records, Inc., reprinted by permission of Tommy C. Jordan and Hal Leonard Corporation (Whoever You Are, Words and Music by Greg Kurstin and Tommy Jordan, ©2004 EMI BLACKWOOD MUSIC, INC., TUCANO MUSIC, AND NUDO MUSIC, all Rights for TUCANO MUSIC Controlled and Administered by EMI BLACKWOOD MUSIC INC., All Rights Reserved, International Copyright Secured, Used by Permission).

  Page 118: Maps by author using model data courtesy of Joseph Alcamo and Martina Flörke, Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel.

  Page 126, 128: Climate model projections reprinted courtesy IPCC AR4 (see endnote 277 for full reference). Climate-change projection maps presented in Chapter Five were modified by permission of the IPCC, Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Figure 10.8, Cambridge University Press. Please note that the modifications made to these maps (“optimistic,” “moderate,” “pessimistic”) are for the purposes of this book only, and are not suggested or used by the IPCC.

  Pages 158-159: Maps by author using 2006 shipping data from AMSA, 2009 (see endnote 362).

  Page 166: Map by author.

  Page 212: Map by author.

  Page 250: “Abandonment of the Jeannette” reprinted from Wonders of the Polar World, National Publishing Co.: Philadelphia, Chicago, St. Louis, 1885. “The Last Polar Bear” used by permission from Freezingpictures/Dreamstime.com/GetStock.com.

  For photo insert (numbers refer to photograph sequence):

  1. Photo used by permission from James Martell; 2, 3. Photos by author; 4. Photo used by permission from John Rasmussen, Narsaq Foto; 5. Photo used by permission from Dr. Ivan Frolov, Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, Saint Petersburg; 6. Photo used by permission from ITAR-TASS News Agency, Russian Federation, 7-11. Photos by author; 12. Photo used by permission from Dr. Vladimir Romanovsky, University of Alaska—Fairbanks; 13. Photo by author; 14. Photo used by permission from Toronto Star/GetStock.com; 15. Photo used by permission from Dr. Richard Forster, University of Utah; 16. Photo used by permission from David Dodge, The Pembina Institute (www.oilsandswatch.org); 7. Photo used by permission from Benjamin Jones, Alaska Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Anchorage. Backmatter author photo used by permission from Karen Frey, Clark Univertiy.

  ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

  This project came about thanks to the urging of two highly accomplished colleagues: Judith Carney and William A. V. Clark, of the UCLA Department of Geography. The conversation over a brief coffee with Clark, a hard-boiled statistician not known for mincing words, went like this:

  Clark: You need to apply for a Guggenheim and write a book.

  Smith: I’m a scientist. We don’t write books.

  Clark: Nonsense. I know plenty that do. You need to apply for a Guggenheim and write a book.

  Four years later the book is done thanks to their advice, a fellowship from the John Simon Guggenheim Foundation, and the support of three other especially encouraging colleagues—John Agnew, Jared Diamond, and David Rigby, also UCLA geographers.

  I thank my agent, Russell Weinberger of Brockman, Inc., for taking on a first-time book author with no experience writing for a lay audience. His patience in fielding my many questions was surpassed only by the patience of my editors Stephen Morrow (Dutton, New York) and Duncan Clark (Profile Books, London).

  I am indebted to my amazing wife, Abbie Tingstad, who I met researching the book. Aside from her graciousness upon discovering her new husband would embed at his desk for nearly two years, she was the book’s foremost critic and sounding board. I thank my parents, Norman and Judith Smith, and brother, Daniel, for being so supportive of me throughout the project.

  Maps and illustrations were drawn by the superb cartographer and artist Chase Langford. Vital research assistance was provided by UCLA students Vena Chu, Nora Hazzakzadeh, and Scott Stephenson.

  The manuscript was substantially improved thanks to critical expert reviews of one or more chapters by John Agnew, Richard Alley, Doug Alsdorf, Lawson Brigham, Marshall Burke, Richard Glenn, John Grace, Richard Forster, Dennis Lettenmaier, David Perrin, and Gavin Schmidt. Scott Lefavour and Gary Levy provided helpful feedback on the final chapter. Norman Smith and Abbie Tingstad read and commented on the manuscript in its entirety.

  Many people sacrificed time from their busy lives to grant interviews. These include Trevor Amiot, Daniel Augur, David Barber, Jeremy Beal, Kathryn Boivin, Cathie Bolstad, Jason Box, Ron Brower, Guylaine Charbonneau, Nellie Couroyea, Joanne Delaronde, Lloyd Dick, John Donihee, Ken Drinkwater, Kamyar Enshayan, Lyle Fetterly, Patrick Frank, Beth Freeman, Melissa Gibbons, Richard Glenn, Michael Goodyear, John Grace, Robert Grandjambe, Jackie Grebmeier, James Hansen, Udloriak Hanson, David Henry, Tony Hill, Harry Hillaker, Tom Hoefer, Stella Hoksbergen, Robert Huebert, Richard Janowicz, Anne Jensen, Lars-Emil Johansen, Brenda Jones, Eli Kavik, Aili Keskitalo, Andrei Kortunov, Jason Langis, Brian and Susan Lendrum, Diana Liverman, Kim Ma, Lise Marchand, John Marshall, Stephanie Martin, Dan McKenney, Jim McLaughlin, Jobie Meeko, Josee Michaud, Ellen Mosley-Thompson, Kevin Mulligan, Dona Novecosky, Adrian Orr, Pentti and Ritva Peltokangas, Tony Penikett, Dorothy Peteet, Laurie Renauer, Andrew Revkin, John Richardson, Ed Schultz, Glenn Sheehan, Elisapee Sheutiapik, Mary Simon, Duane Smith, Rodney Smith, Guy Smith, Mike Spence, Sara Tabbert, Greg Thessen, Lonnie Thompson, Daniela Tommasini, Wayne Tuck, Paningoak’ Vaengtoft, Sophie Vandenbergh, Alexei Varlamov, Aino Viker, Don Wallette, George Wandering Spirit, Sheila Watt-Cloutier, and Robert Zywotko.

  Individuals who provided data, readings, photographs, advice, or other forms of assistance include Joseph Alcamo, Kim Barnes, Jason Box, Marsha Branigan, Lawson Brigham, David Dodge, Gebisa Ejita, Kamyar Enshayan, Martina Flörke, Gail Fondahl, Louis Fortier, Cary Fowler, Karen Frey, Ivan Frolov, Harry Gill, Maya Gold, Ken Hinkel, Larry Hinzman, Ben Jones, Tommy Jordan, Sergey Kirpotin, David Lawrence, Glen MacDonald, Ross MacDonald, James Martell, Philip Micklin, Tatiana Mikhailova, Kevin Mulligan, Tom Narins, Heather Nicol, Matthew Nisbitt, Samuel Niza, Trevor Paglen, Martin Pasqualetti, Tamlin Pavelsky, Fred Pearce, Dorothy Peteet, Tom Puleo, John Rasmussen, Åsa Rennermalm, Anthony Repalone, Bruce Robison, Vladimir Romanovsky, Michael Shermer, Nikolay Shiklomanov, C. K. Shum, Dimas Streletskiy, and Sara Wheeler.

  Travel for this project was supported in part by the John Simon Guggenheim Foundation, with sabbatical release time granted by the University of California-Los Angeles. Several months of office space were kindly provided by the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York,
and a Bellagio Residency from the John D. Rockefeller Foundation.

  INDEX

  Note: Page numbers in italics indicate photographs and illustrations. Page numbers followed by the letter “n” indicate note reference.

  Abdulkadir, Ibrahim

  Abdulkadir, Shehu

  aboriginal peoples: geographic distribution of power; and globalization; and the high Arctic; and human settlement patterns; and land claims; and mineral rights; and the “New North,” and political power; and regional corporations; and traditional hunters

  Achuku, Vincent

  Afghanistan

  Africa. See also specific countries: and climate change; and hydropower; and the Intertropical Convergence Zone; and oil resources; and population growth; and power transmission systems; and projected river flows; and resource pressure; and urbanization; and water resources

  African Development Bank

  agriculture: and carbon dioxide fertilization effect; decline of; and demography; and ethanol production; and global warming; and the Louisiana Purchase; and urbanization; and water resources; and water transportation

  Al Qaeda

  Alaska: and aboriginal peoples; Alaska Highway; Alaska Platform; Alaska Purchase; and Arctic resources; and global warming; and human settlement patterns; and oil resources; and population growth; and Russian foreign policy; and the Siberian Curse; and UNCLOS; and U.S. foreign policy; and water resources; and winter roads; and World War II,

  Alaska Native Claims Settlement Act (ANCSA)

  Alaskan Federation of Natives

  albedo effect

  Alberta Tar Sands

  Alcamo, Joseph

  Algeria

  Alley, Richard B.

  Alsdorf, Doug

  Altiplano Plateau