`Marty, explaining away secrets doesn't worry me. We do that all the time. But before sending a task force to blast the Chinese out of the South China Sea, I need to decide whether we should now condemn or cooperate with Japan. Which course would save American lives and protect our national interests?'
`I believe we should opt for cooperation, Mr President. At the end of the day Japan is an ally. We have no conflict of interests.'
`All right. But spell it out, Marty. As I will have to spell it out to the nation.'
`Let's promote it as burden sharing. American cannot indefinitely police the world. So, let's look first at the threat and then with whom we are best allied. In Europe, we can absolutely rely on the British and usually on the French. They are the grown-ups of the security alliance. They're nuclear. The others waver. We have no major unbreakable alliances in South Asia or the Middle East. India would be a natural ally. But historically it's suspicious. It has its own superpower aspirations. Our friends in the Middle East such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia have domestic political considerations to take into account. In the long term the danger is similar to that of China. The Islamic political and cultural system does not blend with ours. The values and aspirations are different. There is only so far a relationship can go. In East Asia, the ASEAN nations will waver. They know they can't take on either China or Japan. They prefer us but sense our time is up. They are pragmatic people. Their focus is on trade and development. They will accept a new order in China or Japan as long as it doesn't jeopardize trade. And we have the wobble of Russia. No one knows what will happen there. Russia is nuclear.
`Over the next fifty years or so Russia, China, and India will jostle for superpower position. Fine, none is a rogue state.'
`Marty,' interrupted the President, `China has attacked Vietnam, taken over sea lanes to the Pacific, and sunk one of our warships with a huge loss of life.'
`Mr President, I'm talking from the viewpoint of history. We can sanction and bomb Iraq, Libya, Panama. We know their leaders are despots. China is not in that category, and I believe we must approach this from that angle. Look what's happened at the UN Security Council. Beijing vetoes every proposal we put forward.'
`OK. Go on.'
`We might have a public policy to fight two major campaigns at once, but as I said, it's becoming impossible because of budget cuts to the military. If we commit to the South China Sea, we will leave another flank wide open. For example, the Sixth Fleet has a long-term NATO commitment in the Mediterranean. Iran, Iraq, and the Gulf remain areas of tension where we cannot afford to withdraw our forces. If Iran watched us at a stand-off with China, if we began to pour supplies into Vietnam or the Philippines as we did for the Gulf War in the 1990s, and then if Iran decided to flex its muscle in the Gulf, we couldn't handle it, Mr President. By that I mean we wouldn't be defeated in battle, but the costs, the body bags, the Middle Eastern and Oriental enemies on the television screens would turn the American people against what we're trying to achieve.'
`Like in the Vietnam War.'
`Precisely. We win on the battlefield but lose in Congress.'
`Are you speculating or do you know something, Marty?'
`I'm speculating with fact. China makes serious money out of selling weapons. In the last five-year period it came to more than $10 billion. Ninety per cent of that comes from the Middle East. Its closest relationship right now is with Iran, which, incidentally, is how they financed the sudden purchase of two very nasty warships from Russia in the past two years. They've bought the Sovremenny class frigates Vazhny and Vdumchivy, which we believe cost them a quarter of a billion dollars. These ships are armed to the teeth and what they carry isn't pretty, it's brutal stuff, Mr President. They scared us to hell in the Cold War days and they've now come back again to haunt us sailing under another flag. China's got missiles and nuclear technology. Iran's got oil money. Russia's got the toys.
`The Chinese violated the Missile Technology Control Regime [MTCR] accord which they signed in 1987. It bans the sale of missiles or technology for missiles that can carry a payload of more than 500 kilograms a distance of more than 300 kilometres. A year later, China sold thirty-six intermediate-range CSS-2 missiles to Saudi Arabia, which paid more than $3 billion for them. It was also working on a deal to sell its newly developed M-9 missiles to Syria. It's been involved with Iran, Iraq, Pakistan, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and a few others. The common factor uniting those countries, Mr President, is that they are Islamic.
`We first put pressure on China in 1987 when it sold Silkworm missiles to Iran. Then it got worse. In 1989 and 1991 Chinese and Iranian companies struck what in public looked like a commercial deal. But the product was nuclear electromagnetic separator for producing isotopes and a mini-type reactor. The Chinese said it was being used for peaceful purposes; for medical diagnosis and nuclear physics research.
`Atom bombs can be made using a concentrated uranium isotope. That particular deal was dropped, we think because the Russians came up with a better one. But let us assume that Iran is about where Iraq was in the early nineties. It's exploring the nuclear path, but isn't there yet. The next thing we know is that China's sent over what we call calutron equipment, which is needed to enrich uranium. Our intelligence also finds evidence of China supplying Iran with chemical weapons material, thiodiglycol and thionyl chloride, both of which are very nasty substances. The upshot is an aspiring nuclear enemy, possibly with an additional arsenal of mass-destruction chemical weapons. But so far Iran's delivery capability is limited.
`Then we spotted two convoys carrying twenty-six missiles as well as launchers and other accessories moving through the outskirts of Beijing over a three-day period. They went to the main northern port of Tianjin. We believe they were East Wind 31, an intercontinental ballistic missile with a range of 8,000 kilometres. They're propelled by solid-fuel rockets, can be moved around by trucks and fired quickly. We can't detect them easily and they're pretty accurate.'
`And Iran might have them in its arsenal?'
`We're pretty sure it has, Mr President. They're not the best China has. The East Wind 32 was tested in 2000. It was fired from Xinjiang in the far west and travelled 3,000 kilometres overland and into the South China Sea. Its range is 12,000 kilometres. Its payload can be a 700 kilogram nuclear warhead. If fired from Chinese soil, Mr President, the East Wind 32 could get to Alaska or Western Europe. We also believe they're working on a new submarine-launched ICBM. If they get one of those into the Pacific, they could attack Washington and New York.'
`Thank you, Marty,' said the President. `What exactly are you saying?'
`China sells cheap weapons to the Middle East. A Russian MiG-29 fighter costs around $25 million. A Chinese F-7M is no more than $4.5 million. It secures a relationship with oil-producing countries to ensure supplies for the 8,000,000 barrels a day it will need to import by 2010. It calculates that the relationship with the Islamic countries will withstand international pressure for sanctions against it. In the UN it uses its veto, as we know. With those blocks in place it takes over the South China Sea. After the 1996 stand-off during the Taiwan election, the PLA realized that it could not defeat our navy in battle, and wouldn't even be able to even equal it until around 2020. But it knows we can't handle two conflicts at the same time. So it ensures that Iran has the capability to start a diversion if we try another 1996 battle group deployment.'
`Do you know this will happen?'
`As I said, Mr President, our HUMINT is not good. We don't know what the leadership is thinking. But they don't want to fight us. They want us to lose our nerve and get out of the Pacific. In a normal world, all our concentration would be on this mess on the Korean peninsula. As it is, our resources are deployed against China and we're mostly using Japanese intelligence on North Korean troop and naval movements. If we're going to stay there with any credibility we have to do it in an alliance with Japan as a military and nuclear power which can face down China and keep her at bay.'
The Sino-Vietnamese border
Local time: 1000 Wednesday 21 February 2001
GMT: 0300 Wednesday 21 February 2001
Major Lon stared gap-mouthed as Lieutenant Claude Joffe of the French Army Signals Division set up his laptop computer. A French corporal orientated what appeared to be a satellite dish, but instead of heavenwards he pointed it south to Hanoi and the French Embassy there. Soon the exact location of all Chinese units presently flooding across the border would appear on Lieutenant Joffe's screen. The clouds over the battlefield had parted, giving the French spy satellite ideal conditions for monitoring troop movements 100 kilometres below.
300 kilometres to the north-west, in Nanning, a Chinese battlefield manager, Qiao Xiaoming, was engaged in much the same task, at much the same time. He was using a Thomson-CSF Star Burst battlefield information manager which enabled him to communicate electronically and through radio with officers in the field who had mobile versions of his equipment. The graphic display was functioning perfectly. Each armoured division and infantry battalion was illuminated on the screen before him. The images were not photographs, they were more schematic, but with the aid of a computer mouse he could zoom in on any unit and know its strength and capability and exact location in the jungles and on the roads of Vietnam to within 1 metre.
The humble camera had come a long way: it was now digital and connected to a high-speed computer and transmitter: but the satellite the French had stationed above the battlefield did more than just take photographs, process them, and instantaneously send them to an earth receiver. It also possessed a powerful transmitter for other equally secret operations. Like the Americans and the British, French arms manufacturers of `intelligent' weapons liked to stay in control of what they sold to foreign governments, so they wired into the hardware of each piece of military hardware a device that could be activated remotely to render it useless. It could be turned on and off at will, suggesting to the unwary that it was suffering a malfunction. It was insurance, taken out on the basis that today's client might be tomorrow's enemy, or the enemy of a friend. The beauty of it was that the interference could not be traced back to the manufacturer — the Trojan Horse was wired into the silicon chips that in this case animated the Star Burst system.
As Qiao Xiaoming watched 50,000 Chinese troops flow across the Vietnamese border, supported by 250 battle tanks and numerous trucks and lighter vehicles, he was not sure whether to marvel at the wonders of modern science or give in to a sentimental feeling of pride at the activities of his comrades. He did not have time to mull the decision. His screen flickered and then the images upon it dissolved before his eyes. He hit it but it did not respond. He pressed an emergency call button, and then he turned the Star Burst system off and then on again. It seemed to right itself for a moment and then went blank. By the time it did that, half a dozen senior PLA officers were standing around with a look of horror on their faces. To a man they knew that their ability to manage the attack on Lang Son had just slipped from their grasp.
The Prime Minister's residence, Tokyo
Local time: 1230 Wednesday 21 February 2001
GMT: 0330 Wednesday 21 February 2001
Noburo Hyashi had been waiting all his political life for this moment — the day when he would lead Japan into complete independence and freedom. The NHK television crew was busying itself in his office with lights and leads for microphones. Frank Lloyd Wright, the American architect, had designed the official residence of the Japanese Prime Minister, which was situated in Nagatacho, near the Diet (parliament) building. While Hyashi had no particular liking for Americans as such he had grown to like his official residence. Lloyd Wright's use of blond woods was particularly attractive. He also put big windows in the walls which let in light and enabled Hyashi to look out on one of the most perfectly maintained small Japanese gardens in Tokyo. From his office he looked straight into a plum tree in full blossom. Prime Ministerial addresses to the nation were rare in Japanese politics. The usual practice would be for the Prime Minister (flanked by his cabinet three steps behind) to stand at a lectern in an anonymous white-walled room, make a small speech, and then take overlong questions from reporters. His Private Secretary cleared most of the papers from his desk. A tilted plastic autocue was placed directly in front of the desk, below the line of sight of the camera but high enough so it looked as though Hyashi was looking at the camera when he spoke.
`My fellow Japanese,' he began. `I have requested the opportunity to speak to you today to explain the current situation and the government's response to it. As you know the government of the People's Republic of China launched an unprovoked air attack on the Republic of Vietnam on Sunday. At the same time it instituted a blockade of the South China Sea, denying to Japan and other peace-loving peoples in Asia the use of a vital waterway, and this morning China launched an invasion across the Vietnamese border. We are also trying to assess the fresh outbreak of violence on the Korean peninsula and determine to what extent that also threatens long-term peace in the Pacific. Since 1960 Japan has enjoyed a military alliance with the United States. Part of the requirements that treaty places on its two signatories is for one to come to the aid of the other when its national interest is threatened. Your government decided that such a threat to Japan's survival was created by China's actions on Sunday and through diplomatic channels we sought to invoke our treaty with the United States. Sadly, we could not agree that such a threat existed.
`The government concluded that to all intents and purposes the military alliance which we had with the United States had ended. This left Japan little choice but to act independently. The first part of that independent action occurred this morning when our military forces tested a small nuclear device. I fully understand that given our own tragic experience of nuclear weapons, many of you will be saddened by news that we too possess such weapons. Some, indeed, may be even angry. To those who are I can do nothing more than offer my sincerest regrets.
`It is not the place of the Japanese Prime Minister to lecture the United States. But I cannot conclude this part of my address to you without one observation on racism. The Americans should admit that racial prejudice does not hold any solutions to the problems developing in the world today. It is important that they face the situation aware of the historical context, seeing that the reality is that the power in the world, including economic power, is shifting from West to East. It may not be as strong a shift as used to be expressed last century with talk about the "Pacific era", but at any rate it is in America's interest to rid itself of prejudice against Asia, including that against Japan, in order to maintain a position of leadership in the world.
`Our new position in the world will require us to make changes and sacrifices. Although your government seeks no more for Japan than that it should play a role commensurate with its economic position in the world, we will have to be sensitive to feelings of our neighbours as they adjust to the new realities. We cannot become overbearing, which will not be tolerated in the new era, but by the same token an inferiority complex is equally harmful. The Japanese must move out of their current mental stagnation. If you stay silent when you have a particular demand or an opposing position to express, the other party will take it for granted that you have no demand or opposition. When you close your mind to the outside, remaining in a uniquely Japanese mental framework, you will be isolated in this modern, interdependent world.
`Let me explain the new role for our nation which the government foresees. Japan should open its markets to the extent where there will be no room for complaints from foreign friends, and we should provide money to help developing countries where people are not being oppressed. Japan needs to become aware of its responsibilities. I realize there is a cost associated with this. Certainly the full opening of our markets, and the advancing of large sums of money to developing countries, will be very painful and costly. However, things will not get better in the world until the pain is shared more equitably. How much pain do you thin
k was involved during the Meiji Restoration [1868] when the privileged class of samurai gave up their power, cut their special hairstyles, and tossed out their swords? It allowed a bloodless revolution to take place within Japan. We need such a peaceful revolution in Asia.
`In spite of the legacy of the past, Japan has the capability to take a lead in Asia. I offer two examples from opposite ends of the scale. Japanese popular songs are heard all over Asia today. Karaoke is the most popular form of home entertainment in our region. From Dalian to Sydney this quintessentially Japanese pastime is enjoyed. Then there are cultural treasures such as the Miroku Buddha, or the Horiyuji Temple. They attract interest and respect from all over the world, beyond national, racial, and cultural boundaries.
These are products of refinement from the Japanese people. The original image of Buddha came from India, by way of China and the Korean peninsula. The image of Buddha in Japan is the product of the refinement of Japanese art. The process has been constantly refined and it becomes a product of Japanese intellectual processes; it is clearly Japanese. Everything stops at Japan; the Japanese people refine what has come their way; Japan is the last stop in cultural transition. `These are noble aims for the future. Japan stands ready to offer assistance to our neighbours in Asia, near and far. At the moment, however, we face as serious a threat as we have ever faced. China's adventurism in the South China Sea cannot go unchecked. We have a responsibility to broker peace on the Korean peninsula. We have no desire for dominance in Asia. We seek only stability so that trade can flourish. Yet already one oil tanker bound for Japan has been hijacked. We have dispatched a naval group to the South China Sea. Initially it will conduct missile trials. It will also offer protection for Japanese and Japan-bound shipping.
Dragon Strike -- A Novel of the Coming War with China (Future History Book 1) Page 20
