`Ours will no longer be a nation subject to insult and humiliation. We have stood up. Our revolution has won the sympathy and acclaim of the peoples of all countries. We have friends all over the world. The era in which the Chinese people were regarded as uncivilized is now ended. We shall emerge in the world as a nation with an advanced culture. We shall be strong and feared. The Chinese people are no longer slaves.'
The Party controlled the cheers and waving of flags. But that made the response even more awesome. China had been down this road before. And each time it had ended in death, bloodshed, chaos, and the fragmentation of the ruling dynasty.
New China News Agency, Beijing
Local time: 0930 Thursday 22 February 2001
GMT: 0130 Thursday 22 February 2001
The Xinhua (New China) News Agency statement on China's changing military policy was characteristically vague. It said the State Council had reassessed the communique 16 October 1964, the day China carried out its first nuclear test. It then listed seven principles, the first and most important being that at no time would China be the first to use nuclear weapons. The statement said: `The reassessment has become necessary because of recent moves by foreign forces to invade the motherland.
`In a Western imperialist conspiracy, the brave officers and men of the People's Liberation Army are being slaughtered by foreign powers intent on the containment of China. This happened in the nineteenth century. In the twentieth century many Chinese lived as the slaves to Japanese, American, British, and French colonial powers. We will never be slaves again. It is the duty of the Chinese people to protect the motherland with any weapons they might have. China is a poor nation. But it can and will defend itself. As Mao Zedong said: "No matter what country, no matter what missiles, atomic bombs, hydrogen bombs . . . we must surpass them."'
Kabuto-cho, Tokyo
Local time: 1100 Thursday 22 February 2001
GMT: 0200 Thursday 22 February 2001
When the Xinhua statement flashed across the screens of dealers in Tokyo their immediate, reflex response was to sell the yen. The prospect of a nuclear exchange between China and the US and the likelihood that Japan would also be a target was more than the Japanese currency could endure. It dropped to .60 and stabilized. But soon it dawned on financial market operatives that the threat of nuclear annihilation altered the calculus of financial markets. Foreign exchange turnover in Tokyo on a good day exceeded $20 billion. But as the morning wore on activity in the market became sporadic. Huge bursts of activity punctured long periods of virtually no trading. The client of Damian Phillips was sitting on nearly $260 million. Ahead of Xin-hua's announcement he had risked interception by foreign intelligence agencies and telephoned Phillips in Hong Kong. He spoke two words and hung up: `Buy Japan.' The Nikkei Index was in free fall when First China began selective buying of blue-chip Japanese stocks. The index had fallen 5.5 per cent the previous day. It had opened another 5 per cent lower at 34,056 and fell further as the morning progressed. Phillips had had his orders. First China, acting through Nomura, bought selectively but in size. It picked up 3 per cent of Nippon Oil, 1 per cent of Toyota, a 4 per cent stake in Matsushita, and a smaller, undisclosed, stake in Sony. Phillips had taken General Zhao at his word and did not feel constrained to use just the trading profits for the currency dealings to buy Japanese equities; he also dipped into the $1 billion and more profits First China had made on oil trading.
The South China Sea
Local time: 1000 Thursday 22 February 2001
GMT: 0200 Thursday 22 February 2001
209 American servicemen died when the Chinese navy penetrated the defences of the USS Harry S. Truman carrier group and sank the guided-missile destroyer USS Oscar Austin. The ship was first hit by three surface-to-surface Sunburn missiles fired from the Liu Huaqing, which was 100 kilometres north-east of the Paracel Islands. She was less than twelve hours out of base. Then two of her 533mm torpedoes ripped through the crippled ship's hull, causing explosions and fires. Attack aircraft scrambled from the USS Harry S. Truman, and within minutes their air-to-surface missiles and laser-guided bombs were unleashed upon the Chinese frigate. But like over Woody Island the day before, the Americans were up against Soviet Cold War technology. The first wave of missiles and bombs was seduced away from the ship by decoy chaff launchers. Three Hornets were shot down by surface-to-air missiles. The crew failed to eject. Two Tomcats were also hit. One returned safely to the carrier. The other crashed into the sea and the pilot was picked up. As the escort vessels moved in towards the Oscar Austin to rescue survivors, an undetected Romeo submarine fired two straight-running torpedoes at the oiler USS Willamette. Only one torpedo hit and the damage was contained. Ten of the 135 crew died. Twenty were injured. Like the Ming which attacked the USS Peleliu, the Romeo headed into the rescue area, where the commander knew he would be safe from attack. Three hours later the attack submarine the USS Cheyenne, trailing the Liu Huaqing from behind and remaining undetected, fired three wire-guided Mk48 torpedoes. All hit the frigate, sinking her. The Romeo which attacked the USS Willamette escaped.
The White House, Washington, DC
Local time: 2100 Wednesday 21 February 2001
GMT: 0200 Thursday 22 February 2001
The President's light supper, which had been arranged to brief senators, broke up early when the Xinhua dispatch came through. Bradlay called in Weinstein, the National Security Adviser, Collins, the Defense Secretary, Kuhnert, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, and Gillchrest, the Secretary of State. The problem put forward by the President was whether the Allies should now attack mainland Chinese military bases, particularly those known to hold nuclear weapons. Kuhnert quoted the time-honoured nuclear adage: `Use them, or lose them.' He said if the Chinese were now only bluffing they would be motivated to open up their nuclear arsenal if it were under threat. He believed that within the next twelve hours the Allied forces would have secured the South China Sea and China would have lost any aspirations of power projection. To bomb the mainland would rub their noses in it and make them a more dangerous animal to deal with in the future. The Secretary of State noted the political problems facing Britain in deciding whether or not to attack the Argentine mainland during the Falklands War in 1982.
`We would lose the support of the ethnic Chinese community around the world,' he said. `The South-East Asian nations which are now neutral might turn against us. It would be more an act of symbolism than of military practicality. We might hit a handful of warheads, but there are others they could launch. And there's bound to be allegations accompanied by television pictures of civilian casualties. Indeed, there would be civilian casualties.' He said that America's policy objective was to safeguard the trade routes between the Indian and Pacific Oceans and to protect the lives of American citizens. That was being done. Vietnam's objective was to protect its territory from further air and naval strikes, which gave it justification for air strikes on mainland bases. They were already being helped by Western intelligence. Perhaps, if military planners believed further mainland attacks were necessary, they should be carried out by the Japanese in their new role as a military regional power.
NSA Weinstein said that the main Chinese nuclear threat came from mobile launchers which could be transported by road or rail. They could be moved at night and hidden during the day. He had brought a folder containing two sets of 8 10 colour photographs taken along the rail track between Shenyang and Harbin in northern China. The ability of America's eyes in the sky to spy on the world below was nothing short of astonishing, and it astounded the President every time such photographs were placed before him. They had been gathered by Big Bird satellites orbiting only about 180 to 290 kilometres above the Earth. Because of their miniaturized rocketry they were highly manoeuvrable. The satellites were fitted with image-forming systems with multiple arrays of tiny electro-optical detectors. Each detector produced an electrical signal proportional to the amount of light falling on it. When put together, the information c
ollected by the thousands of detectors mounted on the satellite produced an image of the terrain below. The resolution was extraordinary. It was so good that individuals could be identified. Moreover the satellites were programmed to transmit only pictures that they had been instructed to notice, such as missile silos, submarines, military aircraft. If the analyst who was viewing the pictures on his computer screen wanted to take a closer look at some unusual terrestrial phenomenon, the satellite responded. After Big Bird's onboard computer digitized the photographic data it was transmitted to a relay satellite in geosynchronous orbit and in constant view of its ground-receiving station at the National Security Agency, outside Washington.
The first set of photographs the President viewed that evening had been taken at 0848 Beijing standard time, the second fifteen minutes later at 0903, and the others at further fifteen-minute intervals. They showed a series of railway cars, carrying container-like boxes, except far longer and clearly not made of metal, because on one the front end looked torn with a missile head pointing out.
`These are mobile launchers, Mr President,' said Marty Weinstein. `They are being moved outside of their usual exercise pattern. Liaoning is the base for unit 80301 of the Second Artillery, the regiment which handles China's ballistic missile programme. We believe the train is heading towards Harbin. But we lost it after dark. The weather didn't help.'
`Can they launch from this?' asked Bradlay.
`If they fired enough, one would work. But there's something else. In May 1995 the Second Artillery finished building a network of modern missile-launching positions which now covers the whole country. It took them fifteen years to do it and they call it the Great Wall Project because of its role in defending Chinese territory.' The NSA opened another folder. `These are truck-launched missiles being moved out of the Second Artillery's base in Huangshan in Anhui Province. Unit 80302.' He shuffled through to another set of photographs. `Here's more truck-launched missiles coming from Unit 80303 in Kunming in Yunnan. They are almost certainly being targeted on Vietnam. And look at this. Unit 80306 at Xining in the north-west desert area where it's more difficult to hide. No forests or built-up areas. This launch site is in the open and look at the elevation. These could go any minute and they're aimed at Western Europe. The ones in Anhui could hit Japan. In Liaoning they could hit Japan or continental America.'
`We can't afford a nuclear attack,' said the President.
`That is why they've raised the stakes,' said Secretary of State Gillchrest. `They know our thinking.'
Weinstein continued: `The Chinese also have a sea-launch capability. But we have sunk the Xia which was heading towards the Eastern Pacific. The Russian-built Kilo class submarine has sea-launched cruise missile capability. That would be good up to 2,500 kilometres. Tests have been carried out on the updated Xia class submarine with a JL2 ICBM with a range of 8,000 kilometres. We have no intelligence that the submarine is anywhere but in port. Tests have been inconclusive. We believe it's not even ready for use.'
`Do they know we know?' the President asked.
`The first question we ask in intelligence, sir, is why are we discovering this. In Xining, definitely, they have ensured we know what they are doing. Or they wouldn't have brought them out in daylight. The Chinese always announce their intentions, Mr President. They're telling us they might nuke us any time.'
The President turned to Kuhnert: `Arnold, if you were going to hit their nuclear arsenal, how would you do it?'
`The main targets would be the Second Artillery units in the north at Shenyang, Harbin, and Yanbian. Simply because of range, that is where the launch would probably take place. I would like to also target the Nanjing, Guangzhou, and Chengdu military regions. To do it effectively would need a lot of firepower. The attacks would have to be simultaneous and even then it would impossible to guarantee the destruction of China's military arsenal. The only possible way to deter them from using nuclear weapons, Mr President, would be to carry out a nuclear strike on China first. But frankly, knowing a bit about Chinese military thinking, I don't think it would work. I believe the military mindset right now is that they would see their whole country wiped out before being defeated by the United States.'
The President's Office, Seoul, Korea
Local time: 1100 Thursday 22 February 2001
GMT: 0200 Thursday 22 February 2001
Seoul was engulfed in smoke and raging fires. President Kim took a call on his direct line from Jamie Song.
`We have put an end to it', said the Chinese Foreign Minister, speaking in English. `Xinhua will be putting out a statement within the hour, saying that Kim Jong-Il and his close associates are on an official visit to China. We sent our own special forces units into Pyongyang to bring him out. There was fighting at the airport and our first aircraft was destroyed. But several army units have now come over to our side. Troops around the Presidential Palace have been neutralized. Kim Jong-Il is in the city of Yanji, across the border, under close guard. There'll be a statement from Pyongyang announcing the formation of a new government, but that might not be for some hours.'
`What about the current offensive?' interjected the President.
`I have no idea if the guys taking up the reins in Pyongyang have the power to call off the attack. On that one, you're on your own. And one other thing: once the truce is secured, we want the Americans out within a month.'
The first North Korean T-62 tank circled through the Demilitarized Zone as if the driver was in a manic frenzy, before crashing through one of the truce huts and heading straight for the South Korean military positions. Allied troops stopped it with an anti-tank missile. Then the North Korean artillery opened up with a ferocious barrage. Four Americans died from one shell explosion in Camp Greaves. Six were wounded. Five American helicopters, two giving covering fire with rockets and heavy machine-guns, came in to take out the dead, wounded, and survivors. Camp Greaves was empty when four North Korean T-62s broke down the perimeter fence. North Korean artillery was being destroyed by guided bombs and missiles fired from aircraft, warships, and land positions. The highway running north to Pyongyang was littered with the burnt-out wrecks of armoured vehicles. Fires raged below ground in the tunnels and caverns. But, unlike Saddam Hussein's Republican Guard in the Gulf War ten years earlier, it took far more to cripple the North Korean military machine.
Tens of thousand of troops poured south. Some emerged running across fields. At first, as they crossed the line, they were mown down with machine-guns or blown up by mines. Others came out in company strength through dozens of tunnels which had been dug over the years but not used. Hovercrafts with platoon-size units sped down at 40 knots landing men wherever they could find suitable landfall. Antonov troop-carrying planes dropped paratroopers. Hundreds were shot as they came down. Planes filled with men were blown out of the skies. By early afternoon, when the North Korean land offensive was at its height, it appeared that Fort Boniface would have to be abandoned. One North Korean commando unit penetrated the outer bunkers and there was hand-to-hand fighting on the sand-bagged defences. But the Americans put up a protective cordon of helicopter firepower around the base and soon the sheer devastating force of the South Korean and American counterattack put a stop to the first wave of enemy advance.
Skirmishes were continuing when Radio Pyongyang announced a change of government in the North. It broadcast a command for a ceasefire and within an hour of the news being known a Chinese military Boeing 737, met by escorting South Korean F-16 fighters on the Northern border, headed for Pyongyang. The troops advancing on the South fell into disarray. Soon it became clear they were without commanders and over the following hours many of those caught in forward positions changed from being the enemy to peasant refugees seeking sanctuary under UN protection.
At a military airbase near Pyongyang, Chinese and South Korean officials stepped off the aircraft to be met by their North Korean military hosts. A temporary treaty, brokered by China, was signed in a run-down and unheated b
uilding which later became as famous as the buildings around Panmunjon. Photographs showed the participants muffled up in military greatcoats as they put their signatures to the document.
It stated that the Korean Peninsula would be reunited under a formula of one country, two systems. The demarcation line along the 38th Parallel would remain in place to ensure that South Korea was not flooded with refugees. There would be two separate currencies. But the border would be open for trade and investment and in a gradual process the two societies and governments would be completely integrated. Monuments to the Great Leader Kim Il-Sung would remain intact, as would his Juche philosophy. The few monuments to Kim Jong-Il would be removed. Kim Jong-Il himself would remain under indefinite house arrest in Yanji. Once the Dragonstrike crisis was over, joint military celebrations of the unification would be held in both Pyongyang and Seoul. The last clause of the treaty specified that all foreign troops would be asked to leave the peninsula once a genuine peace had been restored.
Capital Airport, Beijing
Local time: 1000 Thursday 22 February 2001
GMT: 0200 Thursday 22 February 2001
As soon as the American military Boeing 707 entered Chinese airspace, it was intercepted by four Shenyang J-6C Farmer air-combat fighter aircraft. These ageing warplanes were copied from the Soviet MiG-19s with a design which dated back to the 1960s. They would be no match for the American Tomcats in action over the South China Sea. As American, British, and Chinese lives were being lost at war, the Chinese fighter pilots followed the Boeing in and stayed with it for the safe landing at Beijing's Capital international airport. This was the only foreign airliner there. All civilian aircraft had left China within the past forty-eight hours. China's own civilian air fleet was either grounded or being used for troop transport. Even during the flight, first from Seattle to Tokyo and then on to Beijing, Reece Overhalt had never imagined that the passenger terminal in Beijing could so quickly be transformed into a military installation. Camouflage had been taken off anti-aircraft positions in the dusty fields around the runway. Rows of Sukhoi Su-24 Fencer-C all-weather ground-attack and interdiction aircraft together with the Shenyang J-6Cs were parked where just a week ago United Airlines and British Airways Boeing 747s would have been. Two Air China Boeing 747s were at air bridges at one of the main terminal buildings where Overhalt's plane came to a stop. As he disembarked, hundreds of Chinese troops were milling around, waiting to board for their deployment on the Vietnamese border.
Dragon Strike -- A Novel of the Coming War with China (Future History Book 1) Page 24
