A retired helicopter pilot, once assigned to rescuing the First Family, was interviewed on ABC News. `Through the years, we always reacted like we could handle an all-out nuclear attack. I don't think people — then our top people in government —have any idea of what a multi-megaton nuclear weapon attack on the US would do. We'd be back in the Stone Age. It's unthinkable.'
In the White House, President Bradlay told his inner cabinet: `The American people are scared. They may become hysterical. After an attack we are going to have to be prepared to operate with people who are uncontrollably mad and frightened.'
There was a silence and the remarks of a relief worker being interviewed on television dominated the meeting for a moment. `It is sham for me to tell people I can help them. We've gone beyond that. I cannot give people confidence that there is a system in place that will work, when in my heart of hearts, in the dark of night, I doubt it will work.'
Those remarks were followed by those of a former director of the Mount Weather complex: `I would be breaking the law if I told you whether that facility is ready to receive President Bradlay and his administration. I will say only that our policy after the collapse of the Soviet Union was we shouldn't shut the damn doors yet. Remember what Plato said: "Only the dead have seen the end of war."'
China World Hotel, Beijing
Local time: 0200 Friday 23 February 2001
GMT: 1800 Thursday 23 February 2001
`President Bradlay has asked whether China can meet the international conditions laid down to end the conflict,' began Reece Overhalt as the two men settled back into the suite at the China World Hotel. `He also wants you to note the unilateral ceasefire in the South China Sea by Allied forces while we try to get this mess untangled. At the same time, British and American Trident submarines are ready to launch at any time. We have B2 stealth bombers in Okinawa and on Guam and the Peacekeeper and Minuteman missile silos have been prepared. The twin keys have been taken out of their boxes. Each officer at each launch station is on readiness to use them once the President makes his command.'
Jamie Song took a sheet of paper from his briefcase and laid it on the coffee table. He said, reading from it: `President Wang will stand down our nuclear weapons on guarantees that the United States will withdraw its military forces from the South China Sea. If you do that, we will guarantee free passage of all non-military shipping, and we will allow limited Japanese naval patrols. After a decent interval of cooling off, American and Allied warships will be allowed in on a case by case basis, if for example you want to visit Hong Kong or Shanghai, or the British want to go to Brunei again. You will recognize there is a legitimate regional dispute over the Spratly and Paracel Islands and leave it up to the region to sort it out.' At this stage, he looked up. `What we're saying, Reece, is leave Asia to solve Asia's problems. Draw back from where you're not needed any more and don't get involved in another war here which will kill thousands of Americans. Your Ambassador and I will sign a Memorandum of Understanding tonight. It will be followed up by a more detailed document to be negotiated by officials over the next few months. After that there should be an exchange of presidential visits and everything will get back to normal. President Wang also wanted to give his personal guarantee that trade will not be affected. We understand that we need your technology and investment to develop. He hopes that our trade privileges will also continue.'
Reece Overhalt returned to the Embassy to talk to President Bradlay. China gave America three further hours to reach a decision.
The White House, Washington, DC
Local time: 1500 Thursday 22 February 2001
GMT: 2000 Thursday 22 February 2001
A SIGINT report from Hawaii had picked up a frequency hopping encrypted exchange of signals, which analysts said could have been between the Qingdao naval base and the Xia submarine. Aircraft had been put up to try and find it. The nearest American submarine was 250 nautical miles away from the very rough position where the submarine could be. The President was told it was still like looking for a needle in a haystack. The British Prime Minister telephoned to offer continuing military support. He offered sympathy for the breakdown of civil society in the United States. Luckily Britain, having experienced the bombing of its cities before, remained more under control. He was also concerned about the closure of newspapers and radio and television stations in Hong Kong. The editor of the South China Morning Post had been gaoled. Both the BBC and CNN had been reporting mass arrests of suspected subversives. The Legislative Council had been suspended and the Chief Executive had announced emergency measures. The Japanese Prime Minister called on President Bradlay to pull back from a larger battle which neither America nor China would win. He said that Japan could live with Chinese sovereignty over the South China Sea as long as it remained an international trade route. But this was not an issue over which to launch thermonuclear war. The German Chancellor said he saw no good that could come of it. The French President said he was standing his forces down for the time being: he had no intention of getting into a nuclear exchange with China. Defense Secretary Matt Collins said confirmed reports were coming in of further mass troop movements on the Vietnamese border. The Guangzhou and Kunming military districts were still declared war zones. Satellite pictures showed artillery being moved back from its forward border positions. But there was no certainty that Vietnam was safe from Chinese attack. Some of the most powerful guns were in the Pingxiang area only 150 kilometres from Hanoi. Analysts were still working on photographs indicating imminent launches of the M11 missile, which could hit the outskirts of Hanoi. On Hainan Island there were signs that the M9 was being prepared. With a 600 kilometre range, the missiles could hit Da Nang and Hue. The Indian Prime Minister telephoned to say that he was getting reports of uprisings throughout Tibet. Troops had opened fire in Lhasa, Xigaze, and Gyangze. Hundreds had died. India was setting up refugee camps for Tibetans who tried to escape. Troops were being flown in to reinforce the border. The White House press office urged the President to confirm he would not be leaving the building. Both the National Guard and the Marine Corps anticipated even more dangerous riots if there was an evacuation. Mexican border police opened fire on Americans trying to flee into Tijuana and Nogales south of Tucson. There had also been trouble at other border posts. Canada had simply opened the border and let people drive in, urging them to keep going north to ease congestion.
As Reece Overhalt spoke to the President, the first reports came in of China's invasion of the Taiwanese island of Peikan, just off the coast of Fujian. Twenty minutes later the better defended settlement of Matsu had fallen. Within five minutes of that confirmation, President Bradlay ordered the USS Asheville to destroy the Kilo class submarine off the Californian coast. Reece Overhalt was still on the secure line. The Defense Secretary, the National Security Adviser, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the Secretary of State were included in the conference call. Reece Overhalt explained the Chinese policy of forcing America out of Asian affairs.
`Well, gentlemen, what do you suggest?' said the President.
`Mr President,' said the Defense Secretary, `why are we even thinking about condemning millions of our countrymen to death by nuclear weapons? I think the Chinese have offered us the makings of a deal, and I think we should grab it with both hands. Our decision to escalate to naval conflict was taken not in response to China's seizure of the South China Sea, but to their sinking of the Peleliu. The Peleliu's mission was to rescue oil workers being held hostage. I have been told in the last hour that those men have now been freed by Japanese naval forces and are safely on board a Japanese naval vessel. I would like you to join with me in offering our thanks to the Japanese government. Japan, which is our ally, has emerged as a global power, to which we can hand over confidently the mantle of leadership in Asia. If the trade routes are guaranteed, what is the point of risking nuclear war? Apart from the loss of life, the global economy could be set back decades. There will be a shift of alliances and power whi
ch will take years to settle. America itself will undergo an internal psychological upheaval from which it will not recover in generations. Just listen to the television. As a nation we are still licking our wounds from the defeat in Vietnam nearly thirty years ago. Yet not one shell in that war landed on our soil. How long will it take us to be cured of the trauma of nuclear attack? Even without firing a missile, the Chinese have turned this country into a mayhem of rioting and looting. I urge us to sign the Memorandum of Understanding, get the missiles stood down and Wall Street reopened, and let America return to normal life. Properly presented, this will not look as if we are being forced out of Asia, which we aren't. We will emerge as the saviours of Asia and of Europe.'
A call from the press office interrupted the discussion. The President instructed a statement to be issued saying that he and his advisers would not be evacuating the White House. However, no details were to be given of the nuclear bunker facilities being prepared. On Capitol Hill, members of Congress were only leaving their offices for their homes. Without revealing the security details, several told interviewers that there was no way they would go without taking their families with them. And there was no facility for that. Both the White House and the Congressional Buildings were, in effect, under siege from demonstrators. The security staff had given a warning of the danger of helicopter flight. Agents in the crowd had reported people with firearms, including high-powered automatic weapons which could shoot down aircraft.
The Secretary of State, Larry Gillchrest, took up the argument on the other side. `I don't think this is a time to take the easy option and cave in to China at the point of a gun,' he said. `Other non-democratic governments around the world would regard the United States as a paper tiger. If China succeeded in facing us down there would be no democratic government with both the will and ability to police global affairs. A China unchecked will invade Taiwan's already begun to. It will seek to control Korea and Indochina. The ethnic Chinese business communities of Asia will support it and undermine our own influence. The end result will be international chaos, Mr President, not only in the balance of power, but also in the economies and in the dozens if not hundreds of smaller wars which will be ignited. Inevitably, they will lead to wider conflict, probably beginning in the Middle East or Europe, into which we will be drawn, as we were drawn in the First and Second World War, into Korea, Vietnam, the Gulf, and Bosnia. If this discussion is about an option to escape conflict, then, gentlemen, we are living in dreamland. Men will die. Cities will be destroyed. The best option open to us is to retain control of the conflict throughout and emerge as the winners. If we do that, we will probably secure peace and the security of America for generations. If we don't, other men, or perhaps even we will be in this room in five years' time, threatened maybe by a nuclear alliance of China and Iran, or India and Russia, with better missiles and bigger warships which we would have difficulty defeating even in a conventional conflict. Is it that we can't win, Mr President? Or is it that the American soul is too vulnerable for the fight?'
`Marty,' said the President talking directly to his National Security Adviser. `Do we have any evidence at all that China will settle if we back off and that after a time the policy of constructive engagement will see in a group of more reform-minded leaders with whom we can deal?'
`I believe that is possible. But we don't know how much more turmoil we have to go through to get there. Constructive engagement, a policy of the nineties, led to the situation we are in now. If we strike a deal with them and continue that policy, then it could go either way. China launched Dragonstrike for three reasons. One was to lay claim to the oil and gas reserves of the South China Sea and prevent it from being so reliant on international markets. The second was to consolidate the power of the Communist Party within China. The third was to proceed along what the Chinese see as an inevitable course of history, a return to their role as the greatest and oldest civilization in the world.'
`Do they want to be it, Marty? Or be recognized for it?'
`I think they would be happy with the latter, Mr President. If we want to stop a nuclear conflict today, we back down. If we want to try to mould the future for the next hundred years, we can go either way. If we want to keep China in line for say twenty or thirty years we launch a nuclear strike. My gut feeling, Mr President, is to keep on with the civilizing power of trade and support the younger, more international leaders who will become the leaders of China.'
At this stage another intelligence message came in via both the SIGINT station on Maui and the Ocean Surveillance satellite system. There had been a positive identification of the Xia class submarine and she was being tracked by the Los Angeles class attack submarine USS Chicago on patrol out of San Diego. Sonar operators had detected movements in her launch mechanism, with near certain evidence that preparations were being made for the launch of a ballistic missile. Pentagon analysts had also just discovered a mobile missile in place at a launch site near Harbin in the north-east. A large road vehicle, thought to be carrying a DF-32 missile, had arrived there with signs that it, too, was being prepared for launch. The White House press office called again to urge the President to do something to disperse crowds which were now crammed in around federal buildings throughout the country. It was only a matter of time before the government lost control with devastating loss of life and property.
Within half an hour, all radio and television channels told people to stand by for an announcement from President Bradlay. Helicopters flew over crowds broadcasting the message by loudspeaker: `Go home. Go home. The President is about to address the nation. Go home and wait for his message.' A few did. But most stayed, although the crowds quietened. In Washington and New York, braving near-freezing temperatures, groups huddled around portable television sets. But they kept their people's cordon around the White House. In California, the crowds spread out. People sat on grass and parkland around the public buildings. In smaller towns, which had seen less upheaval, the authorities rigged up a public address system or erected large screens in the parks. In the Minuteman missile silos the officers were ordered to prepare for an imminent launch. On board the Allied Trident missile submarines the captains and executive officers authenticated their orders and the twin keys which each carried.
EIGHT
The White House, Washington, DC
Local time: 1600 Thursday 22 February 2001
GMT: 2100 Thursday 22 February 2001
Bradlay paced the Oval Office. He stopped and turned to the assembled advisers and told them that he would announce his decision to the nation during his address, scheduled for 1730. Overhalt was instructed to tell the Chinese Foreign Minister to await his statement. He then thanked his advisers for their support and help during the crisis. `The nation is in your debt,' he said. An unusual calm descended on the office. The President displayed an otherworldly, almost mystical detachment. It was then that he made up his mind and asked them to leave so that he could collect his thoughts. Weinstein was the last, and the President pulled him to one side and told him that five minutes before airtime he wanted the latest intelligence on the Chinese submarines. The technicians arrived to set up their cameras in the Oval Office.
`My fellow Americans. I wish that I could appear before you in happier circumstances. But events far from our borders have conspired otherwise. As all of you know the Government of China launched an unprovoked attack on Vietnam last Saturday, at the same time seizing the South China Sea. This illegal action was followed three days later with the sinking of the USS Peleliu, a United States naval vessel engaged on a humanitarian mission to save oil workers manning oil rigs in the South China Sea. Since then we have come to the brink of nuclear war. Indeed, over the past days, Chinese submarines have been preparing to attack America. One reached the Californian coast. I do not wish to sound melodramatic but I am told these submarines are at a high state of readiness. Should the Chinese President so order, our nation's capital could be reduced to rubble within minutes. I have told
President Wang that if he does so order we in retaliation would have no option but to destroy every Chinese city of consequence.
`So what does the moment require of us? I have to tell you, friends, that my advisers are divided.
`Some say we should fight at all costs. To give in now to the Chinese state would be a mistake. It would send a signal to every tinpot dictator that all they have to do is kill some Americans and the United States will fold. This is a powerful argument. It goes to the heart of what sort of world we, and our allies, have been trying to shape since our historic victory over Fascism in 1945 and Communism in 1989. The lessons of those two great wars was that it is the bullies who fold if you have the courage to stand firm. Democracy, freedom, free markets have triumphed. Evil empires have crumbled.
`Yet there is an alternative view. This holds that the conflict in which we became embroiled is only of regional significance. Our interests in China are greater than the concerns of a frightened and paranoid leadership hanging on to power well after its "sell by" date. Our great corporations have put down roots in China and are agents of significant political change. Our regional role is best suited when we adopt the posture of honest broker, rather than global policeman enforcing our will wherever we might find it questioned. As the events of the last few days graphically demonstrate, we have a lot to do.
`But my job is not to arbitrate between two contending schools of thought. It is, with the guidance of God, to govern wisely. That's what you elected me to do last November. That's what I pledged to the nation in my inaugural address last month. Then I warned of the uncertainties facing our nation and of the need for clarity of vision and single-mindedness of purpose. To govern is to choose. The choice I have made is for peace. I am tonight issuing orders for the immediate recall of all US forces west of Japan. We are not, however, walking away from the battlefield. That is not the American way. We have not come to the brink of nuclear war simply to capitulate.
Dragon Strike -- A Novel of the Coming War with China (Future History Book 1) Page 30
