by Isaac Asimov
Hummin said, "Perhaps you were personifying, Seldon. You may have been treating the jet-down as though it was a strange animal looking for you. It wasn't, of course. It was simply a jetdown and if it war a meteorological vessel, its actions were perfectly normal . . . and harmless."
Seldon said, "It didn't seem that way to me."
Hummin said, "I'm sure it didn't, but we don't actually know anything. Your conviction that you were in danger is simply an assumption. Leggen's decision that it was a meteorological vessel is also only an assumption."
Seldon said stubbornly, "I can't believe that it was an entirely innocent event."
"Well then," said Hummin, "suppose we assume the worst-that the vessel toot looking for you. How would whoever sent that vessel know you would be there to seek?"
Dors interjected, "I asked Dr. Leggen if he had, in his report of the forthcoming meteorological work, included the information that Hari would be with the group. There was no reason he should in the ordinary course of events and he denied that he had, with considerable surprise at the question. I believed him."
Hummin said thoughtfully, "Don't believe him too readily. Wouldn't he deny it, in any case? Now ask yourself why he allowed Seldon to come along in the first place. We know he objected initially, but he did relent, without much fight. And that, to me, seems rather out of character for Leggen."
Dors frowned and said, "I suppose that does make it a bit more likely that he did arrange the entire affair. Perhaps he permitted Hari's company only in order to put him in the position of being taken. He might have received orders to that effect. We might further argue that he encouraged his young intern, Clowzia, to engage Hari's attention and draw him away from the group, isolating him. That would account for Leggen's odd lack of concern over Hari's absence when it came time to go below. He would insist that Hari had left earlier, something he would have laid the groundwork for, since he had carefully showed him how to go down by himself. It would also account for his reluctance to go back up in search of him, since he would not want to waste time looking for someone he assumed would not be found."
Hummin, who had listened carefully, said, "You make an interesting case against him, but leis not accept that too readily either. After all, he did come Upperside with you in the end."
"Because footsteps had been detected. The Chief Seismologist had home witness to that."
"Well, did Leggen show shock and surprise when Seldon was found? I mean, beyond that of finding someone who had been brought into extreme peril through Leggen's own negligence. Did he act as though Seldon wasn't supposed to be there? Did he behave as though he were asking himself: How is it they didn't pick him up?"
Dors thought carefully, then said, "He was obviously shocked by the sight of Hari lying there, but I couldn't possibly tell if there was anything to his feelings beyond the very natural horror of the situation."
"No, I suppose you couldn't."
But now Seldon, who had been looking from one to the other as they spoke and who had been listening intently, said, "I don't think it was Leggen."
Hummin transferred his attention to Seldon. "Why do you say that?"
"For one thing, as you noted, he was clearly unwilling to have me come along. It took a whole day of argument and I think he agreed only because he had the impression that I was a clever mathematician who could help him out with meteorological theory. I was anxious to go up there and, if he had been under orders to see to it that I was taken Upperside, there would have been no need to be so reluctant about it."
"Is it reasonable to suppose he wanted you only for your mathematics? Did he discuss the mathematics with you? Did he make an attempt to explain his theory to you?"
"No," said Seldon, "he didn't. He did say something about going into it later on, though. The trouble was, he was totally involved with his instruments. I gathered he had expected sunshine that hadn't showed up and he was counting on his instruments having been at fault, but they were apparently working perfectly, which frustrated him. I think this was an unexpected development that both soured his temper and turned his attention away from me. As for Clowzia, the young woman who preoccupied me for a few minutes, I do not get the feeling, as I look back on it, that she deliberately led me away from the scene. The initiative was mine. I was curious about the vegetation on Upperside and it was I who drew her away, rather than vice versa. Far from Leggen encouraging her action, he called her back while I was still in sight and I moved farther away and out of sight entirely on my own."
"And yet," said Hummin, who seemed intent on objecting to every suggestion that was made, "if that ship was looking for you, those on board must have known you'd be there. How would they know-if not from Leggett?"
"The man I suspect," said Seldon, "is a young psychologist named Listing Ranch"
"Randa?" said Dors. "I can't believe that. I know him. He simply would not be working for the Emperor. He's anti-Imperialist to the core."
"He might pretend to be," said Seldon. "In fact, he would have to be openly, violently, and extremely anti-Imperialist if he was trying to mask the fact that he is an Imperial agent."
"But that's exactly what he's not like," said Dors. "He is not violent and extreme in anything. He's quiet and good-natured and his views are always expressed mildly, almost timidly. I'm convinced they're genuine."
"And yet, Dors," said Seldon earnestly, "it was he who first told me of the meteorological project, it was he who urged me to go Upperside, and it was he who persuaded Leggen to allow me to join him, rather exaggerating my mathematical prowess in the process. One must wonder why he was so anxious to get me up there, why he should labor so hard."
"For your good, perhaps. He was interested in you, Hari, and must have thought that meteorology might have been useful in psychohistory. Isn't that possible?"
Hummin said quietly, "Leis consider another point. There was a considerable lapse of time between the moment when Randa told you about the meteorology project and the moment you actually went Upperside. If Randa is innocent of anything underhanded, he would have no particular reason to keep quiet about it. If he is a friendly and gregarious person-"
"He is," said Dors.
"-then he might very likely tell a number of friends about it. In that case, we couldn't really tell who the informer might be. In fact, just to make another point, suppose Randa is anti-Imperialist. That would not necessarily mean he is not an agent. We would have to ask: Whom is he an agent for? On whose behalf does he work?"
Seldon was astonished. "Who else is there to work for but the Empire? Who else but Demerzel?"
Hummin raised his hand. "You are far from understanding the whole complexity of Trantorian politics, Seldon." He turned toward Dors. "Tell me again: Which were the four sectors that Dr. Leggen named as likely sources for a meteorological vessel?"
"Hestelonia, Wye, Ziggoreth, and North Damiano."
"And you did not ask the question in any leading way? You didn't ask if a particular sector might be the source?"
"No, definitely not. I simply asked if he could speculate as to the source of the jet-down."
"And you"-Hummin turned to Seldon "may perhaps have seen some marking, some insigne, on the jet-down?"
Seldon wanted to retort heatedly that the vessel could hardly be seen through the clouds, that it emerged only briefly, that he himself was not looking for markings, but only for escape-but he held back. Surely, Hummin knew all that.
Instead, he said simply, "I'm afraid not."
Dors said, "If the jet-down was on a kidnapping mission, might not the insigne have been masked?"
"That is the rational assumption," said Hummin, "and it tray well have been, but in this Galaxy rationality does not always triumph. However, since Seldon seems to have taken no note of any details concerning the vessel, we can only speculate. What I'm thinking is: Wye."
"Why?" echoed Seldon. "I presume they wanted to take me because whoever was on the ship wanted me for my knowledge of psychohistory."<
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"No no." Hummin lifted his right forefinger as if lecturing a young student. "W-y-e. It is the name of a sector on Trantor. A very special sector. It has been ruled by a line of Mayors for some three thousand years. It has been a continuous line, a single dynasty. There was a time, some five hundred years ago, when two Emperors and an Empress of the House of Wye sat on the Imperial throne. It was a comparatively short period and none of the Wye rulers were particularly distinguished or successful, but the Mayors of Wye have never forgotten this Imperial past.
"They have not been actively disloyal to the ruling houses that have succeeded them, but neither have they been known to volunteer much on behalf of those houses. During the occasional periods of civil war, they maintained a kind of neutrality, making moves that seemed best calculated to prolong the civil war and make it seem necessary to turn to Wye as a compromise solution. That never worked out, but they never stopped trying either.
"The present Mayor of Wye is particularly capable. He is old now, but his ambition hasn't cooled. If anything happens to Cleon -even a natural death-the Mayor will have a chance at the succession over Cleon's own too-young son. The Galactic public will always be a little more partial toward a claimant with an Imperial past.
"Therefore, if the Mayor of Wye has heard of you, you might serve as a useful scientific prophet on behalf of his house. There would be a traditional motive for Wye to try to arrange some convenient end for Cleon, use you to predict the inevitable succession of Wye and the coming of peace and prosperity for a thousand years after. Of course, once the Mayor of Wye is on the throne and has no further use for you, you might well follow Cleon to the grave."
Seldon broke the grim silence that followed by saying, "But we don't know that it is this Mayor of Wye who is after me."
"No, we don't. Or that anyone at all is after you, at the moment. The jet-down might, after all, have been an ordinary meteorological testing vessel as Leggen has suggested. Still, as the news concerning psychohistory and its potential spreads-and it surely must -.:.ore and more of the powerful and semipowerful on Trantor or, for that matter, elsewhere will want to make use of your services."
"What, then," said Dors, "shall we do?"
"That is the question, indeed." Hummin ruminated for a while, then said, "Perhaps it was a mistake to come here. For a professor, it is all too likely that the hiding place chosen would be a University. Streeling is one of many, but it is among the largest and most free, so it wouldn't be long before tendrils from here and there would begin feeling their soft, blind way toward this place. I think that as soon as possible-today, perhaps-Seldon should be moved to another and better hiding place. But-
"But?" said Seldon.
"But I don't know where."
Seldon said, "Call up a gazeteer on the computer screen and choose a place at random."
"Certainly not," said Hummin. "If we do that, we are as likely to find a place that is less secure than average, as one that is more secure. No, this must be reasoned out. -Somehow."
32.
The three remained huddled in Seldon's quarters till past lunch. During that time, Hari and Dors spoke occasionally and quietly on indifferent subjects, but Hummin maintained an almost complete silence. He sat uptight, ate little, and his grave countenance (which, Seldon thought, made him look older than his years) remained quiet and withdrawn.
Seldon imagined him to be reviewing the immense geography of Tmmor in his mind, searching for a comer that would be ideal. Surely, it couldn't be easy.
Seldon's own Helicon was somewhat larger by a percent or two than Trantor was and had a smaller ocean. The Heliconian land surface was perhaps 10 percent larger than the Trantorian. But Helicon was sparsely populated, its surface only sprinkled with scattered cities; Trantor was all city. Where Helicon was divided into twenty administrative sectors; Trantor had over eight hundred and every one of those hundreds was itself a complex of subdivisions.
Finally Seldon said in some despair, "Perhaps it might be best, Hummin, m chose which candidate for my supposed abilities is most nearly benign, hand me over to that one, and count on him to defend me against the rest."
Hummm looked up and said in utmost seriousness, "That is not necessary. I know the candidate who is most nearly benign and he already has you."
Seldon smiled. "Do you place yourself on the same level with the Mayor of Wye and the Emperor of all the Galaxy?"
"In point of view of position, no. But as far as the desire to control you is concerned, I rival them. They, however, and anyone else I can think of want you in order to strengthen their own wealth and power, while I have no ambitions at all, except for the good of the Galaxy."
"I suspect," said Seldon dryly, "that each of your competitors-if asked-would insist that he too was thinking only of the good of the Galaxy."
"I am sure they would," said Hummin, "but so far, the only one of my competitors, as you call them, whom you have met is the Emperor and he was interested in having you advance fictionalized predictions that might stabilize his dynasty. I do not ask you for anything like that. I ask only that you perfect your psychohistorical technique so that mathematically valid predictions, even if only statistical in nature, can be made."
"True. So far, at least," said Seldon with a half-smile.
"Therefore, I might as well ask: How are you coming along with that task? Any progress?"
Seldon was uncertain whether to laugh or cage. After a pause, he did neither, but managed to speak calmly. "Progress? In less than two months? Hummin, this is something that might easily take me my whole life and the lives of the next dozen who follow me. -And even then end in failure."
"I'm not talking about anything as final as a solution or even as hopeful as the beginning of a solution. You've said flatly a number of times that a useful psychohistory is possible but impractical. All I am asking is whether there now seems any hope that it can be made practical.'
"Frankly, no."
Dors said, "Please excuse me. I am not a mathematician, so 1 hope this is not a foolish question. How can you know something is both possible and impractical? I've heard you say that, in theory, you might personally meet and greet all the people in the Empire, but that it is not a practical feat because you couldn't live long enough to do it. But how can you tell that psychohistory is something of this sort?"
Seldon looked at Dors with some incredulity. "Do you want that explained."
"Yes," she said, nodding her head vigorously so that her curled hair vibrated.
"As a matter of fact," said Hummin, "so would L"
"Without mathematics?" said Seldon with just a trace of a smile.
"Please," said Hummin.
"Well-" He retired into himself to choose a method of presentation. Then he said,- If you want to understand some aspect of the Universe, it helps if you simplify it as much as possible and include only those properties and characteristics that are essential to understanding. If you want to determine how an object drops, you don't concern yourself with whether it is new or old, is red or green, or has an odor or not. You eliminate those things and thus do trot needlessly complicate matters. The simplification you can call a model or a simulation and you can present it either as an actual representation on a computer screen or as a mathematical relationship. If you consider the primitive theory of nonrelativistic gravitation "
Don said at once, "You promised there would be no mathematics. Don't try to slip it in by calling it 'primitive.' ..
"No no. I mean 'primitive' only in that it has been known as long as our records go back, that its discovery is shrouded in the mists of antiquity as is that of fire or the wheel. In any case, the equations for such gravitational theory contain within themselves a description of the motions of a planetary system, of a double star, of tides, and of many other things. Making use of such equations, we can even set up a pictorial simulation and have a planet circling a star or two stars circling each other on a two-dimensional screen or set up more complicated systems in
a three-dimensional holograph. Such simplified simulations make it far easier to grasp a phenomenon than it would be if we had to study the phenomenon itself. In fact, without the gravitational equations, our knowledge of planetary motions and of celestial mechanics generally would be sparse indeed.
"Now, as you wish to know more and more about any phenomenon or as a phenomenon becomes more complex, you need more and more elaborate equations, more and more detailed programming, and you end with a computerized simulation that is harder and harder to grasp."
"Can't you form a simulation of the simulation?" asked Hummin. "You would go down another degree."
"In that case, you would have to eliminate some characteristic of the phenomenon which you want to include and your simulation becomes useless. The LPS-that is, 'the least possible simulation'gains in complexity faster than the object being simulated does and eventually the simulation catches up with the phenomenon. Thus, it was established thousands of years ago that the Universe as a whole, in its fall complexity, cannot be represented by any simulation smaller than itself.
"In other words, you can't get any picture of the Universe as a whole except by studying the entire Universe. It has been shown also that if one attempts to substitute simulations of a small pan of the Universe, then another small part, then another small part, and so on, intending to put them all together to form a total picture of the Universe, one would find that there are an infinite number of such part simulations. It would therefore take an infinite time to understand the Universe in full and that is just another way of saying that it is impossible to gain all the knowledge there is."
"I understand you so far," said Dors, sounding a little surprised.
"Well then, we know that some comparatively simple things are easy to simulate and as things grow more and more complex they become harder to simulate until finally they become impossible to simulate. But at what level of complexity does simulation cease to be possible? Well, what I have shown, making use of a mathematical technique first invented in this past century and barely usable even if one employs a large and very fast computer, our Galactic society falls short of that mark. It can be represented by a simulation simpler than itself. And I went on to show that this would result in the ability to predict future events in a statistical fashion-that is, by stating the probability for alternate sets of events, rather than flatly predicting that one set will take place."
