by Nomi Prins
90. “Interview with Joaquim Levy,” El País (Madrid), September 7, 2015, https://brasil.elpaís.com/brasil/2015/09/04/politica/1441399950_475629.html.
91. Alejandro Bolaños and Heloísa Mendonça, “FMI reduz previsão de crescimento do Brasil e desemprego chega a 8,1%,” El País (Madrid), July 9, 2015, https://brasil.elpaís.com/brasil/2015/07/09/economia/1436434891_459136.html.
92. Anay Cury and Cristiane Caoli, “Desemprego tem maior taxa desde 2010, diz IBGE,” O Globo (Rio de Janeiro), July 23, 2015, http://g1.globo.com/economia/noticia/2015/07/desemprego-fica-em-69-em-junho-diz-ibge.html.
93. Bruno Villas Bôas, “Inflação acumulada em 12 meses chega a 8,89%, maior taxa desde 2003,” Folha de S.Paulo, August 7, 2015, www1.folha.uol.com.br/mercado/2015/07/1653094-inflacao-acelera-para-079-em-junho-maior-taxa-desde-1996.shtml.
94. “In a Speech, Rousseff Talks About ‘Mistakes’ of the Government and ‘Bitter Medicine’ against Crisis,” Reuters, September 7, 2015, http://noticias.uol.com.br/ultimas-noticias/reuters/2015/09/07/dilma-admite-erros-e-diz-que-e-preciso-reavaliar-medidas-tomadas-pelo-governo.htm.
95. Fernando Bizerra Jr., “Dilma Government Announces Austerity Measures,” Observador, September 15, 2015, http://observador.pt/2015/09/15/governo-dilma-anunciou-medidas-austeridade/.
96. Lisa M Schineller, “Research Update: Brazil Foreign Currency Ratings Lowered to ‘BB+/B’; Outlook Is Negative,” S&P Global Market Intelligence, September 9, 2015, www.globalcreditportal.com/ratingsdirect/renderArticle.do?articleId=1448685&SctArtId=339649&from=CM&nsl_code=LIME&sourceObjectId=9329662& sourceRevId=1&fee_ind=N&exp_date=20250909–04:05:17&sp_mid=58283&sp_rid =1830987.
97. Administered prices were made by government decision or authorization such as on buses, water, and electricity.
98. Rob Dwyer, “LatAm Central Banks: Monetary Policymakers Need Fiscal Friends,” Euromoney, October 28, 2015, www.euromoney.com/article/b12km88hnpsyt7/latam-central-banks-monetary-policymakers-need-fiscal-friends.
99. Data Team, “Brazilian Waxing and Waning,” Economist, April 18, 2016, www.eco nomist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2015/10/economic-backgrounder.
100. Robert Neil McCauley, Patrick McGuire, and Vladyslav Sushko, “Dollar Credit to Emerging Market Economies,” BIS Quarterly Review, December 6, 2015, www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1512e.htm.
101. Data Team, “Brazilian Waxing and Waning,” www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2015/12/economic-backgrounder.
102. Henrique Gomes Batista, “Tombini: Fiscal Adjustment Is Slower Than Expected,” O Globo (Rio de Janeiro), October 8, 2015, http://oglobo.globo.com/economia/tombini-ajuste-fiscal-esta-mais-lento-que-esperado-17731241.
103. Yara Aquino, “At a Meeting of the PT, Lula Defends Government Fiscal Adjustment to Recover Prestige,” Brazil Agency, October 29, 2015, http://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/politica/noticia/2015-10/em-reuniao-do-diretorio-do-pt-lula-defende-ajuste-fiscal.
104. Marla Dickerson and Luciana Magalhaes, “Head of Brazil’s Largest Investment Bank and a Senator Arrested in Petrobras Probe,” Wall Street Journal, November 25, 2015, www.wsj.com/articles/brazil-police-arrest-ceo-of-brazilian-bank-btg-pactual-in-corruption-probe-1448457954.
105. “A Indústria em Novembro de 2015: mais perdas: Sumário,” Institute for Studies about Industrial Development, January 8, 2016, www.iedi.org.br/cartas/carta_iedi_n_713.html.
106. David Biller, “Goldman Warns of Brazil Depression After GDP Plunges Again,” Bloomberg, December 1, 2015, www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-01/brazil-gdp-falls-more-than-analysts-expected-as-demand-withers.
107. Paulo Trevisani and Rogerio Jelmayer, “Brazil Vice President Sends Letter Criticizing President Dilma Rousseff,” Wall Street Journal, December 8, 2015, www.wsj.com/articles/brazil-vice-president-sends-letter-criticizing-president-dilma-rousseff-1449576925.
108. “Brazil’s Pro-austerity Finance Minister Joaquim Levy Replaced,” BBC News, December 18, 2015, www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-35138522.
109. Reuters, “Barbosa: ‘Não há necessidade de injeção de capital na Petrobras,’” December 22, 2015, www.brasil247.com/pt/247/economia/210663/Barbosa-’N%C3%A3o-h%C3%A1-necessidade-de-inje%C3%A7%C3%A3o-de-capital-na-Petrobras’.htm.
110. Impactos da redução dos investimentos do setor de óleo e gás no PIB (Ministério da Fazenda, October 21, 2015), www.fazenda.gov.br/assuntos/destaques/nota-a-imprensa-2015-10-21-impacto-da-reducao-dos-investimentos-do-setor-de-oleo-e-gas-no-pib-1.pdf.
111. Vitor Abdala, “Fitch Ratings Agency Downgrades Petrobras and Eletrobras Notes,” ECB, May 11, 2016, https://translate.google.com.br/translate?sl=pt&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=pt-BR&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fagenciabrasil.ebc.com.br%2Feconomia%2Fnoticia%2F2016-05%2Fagencia-de-classificacao-de-risco-fitch-rebaixa-notas-da-petrobras-e&edit-text=&act=url.
112. Paul Kiernan, “Brazil’s Unemployment Rate Rose Sharply,” Wall Street Journal, September 29, 2015, www.wsj.com/articles/brazils-unemployment-rate-rose-sharply-1443530134; David Biller and Matthew Malinowski, “Brazil’s Inflation Surpasses 10% for First Time in 12 Years,” Bloomberg, November 19, 2015, www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-19/brazil-consumer-inflation-exceeds-10-for-first-time-in-12-years.
113. Kenneth Rapoza, “Brazil’s Lousy Christmas,” Forbes, December 27, 2015, www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2015/12/27/brazils-lousy-christmas/.
114. Kelly Oliveira, “IMF Improves Brazil GDP Outlook from–3.8% to –3.3%,” EBC, July 19, 2016, http://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/en/economia/noticia/2016-07/imf-improves-brazil-gdp-outlook-38-33.
115. Marcelo Ninio, “‘Political Crisis Delays Fiscal Adjustment,’ Says Central Bank President,” Folha de S.Paulo, October 8, 2015, www1.folha.uol.com.br/mercado/2015/10/1691744-crise-politica-atrasa-ajuste-fiscal-diz-tombini.shtml.
116. Paula Sambo and Josue Leonel, “Brazil’s Central Bank U-Turn Isn’t New. It Didn’t Work Before,” Bloomberg, January 22, 2016, www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-22/brazil-s-central-bank-u-turn-isn-t-new-it-didn-t-work-before--ijp1iajh.
117. AFP, “China and Brazil Confirm Trade and Investment Deals Worth Billions,” Guardian (Manchester), May 19, 2015, www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/19/china-brazil-trade-deals-billions.
118. Daniel Bland, “China Firms Visit Brazil for US$10bn Transcontinental Railway Talks,” BN Americas, February 19, 2016, www.bnamericas.com/en/news/privatization/china-firms-visit-brazil-for-us10bn-transcontinental-railway-talks.
119. “Chineses vão construir e operar o Porto Sul e a Fiol,” UOL, March 8, 2016, http://atarde.uol.com.br/economia/noticias/1751003-chineses-vao-construir-e-operar-o-porto-sul-e-a-fiol.
120. “Tríplex, sítio e venda de MP: entenda os casos em que Lula é investigado,” UOL, February 11, 2016, http://noticias.uol.com.br/politica/ultimas-noticias/2016/02/11/triplex-sitio-e-venda-de-mp-veja-casos-em-que-lula-e-alvo.htm.
121. Donna Bowater, “Dilma Rousseff makes former president Lula chief of staff to shield him from prosecution,” Telegraph, March 16, 2016, www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/southamerica/brazil/12194162/Brazils-former-president-Lula-da-Silva-offered-cabinet-post.html.
122. Associated Press, “Brazil: Police Claim to Have Evidence President Michel Temer Received Bribes,” Guardian (Manchester), June 20, 2017, www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/21/brazil-police-claim-to-have-evidence-president-michel-temer-received-bribes.
123. Joao Barroso, meeting with author, Central Bank of Brazil offices, Brasília, April 7, 2016.
124. Joao Barroso, meeting with author, Brasília, April 2016.
125. Luiz Bresser, meeting with author at his home, March 29, 2016.
126. Glenn Greenwald, “Watch: Exclusive Interview by Glenn Greenwald with Former Brazilian President Lula da Silva,” Intercept, April 11, 2016, https://theintercept.com/2016/04/11/watch-exclusive-interview-with-former-brazilian-president-lula-da-silva/.
127. Joe Leahy and Samantha Pearson, “Brazil Speaker Annuls Impeachment Vote,” Financial Times, May 9, 2016, www.ft.com/content/1a5a260e-1604
-11e6-b8d5-4c1fcdbe169f.
128. Carol Siqueira, “Chamber Clears Dilma Impeachment Process with 367 Votes in Favor and 137 Votes Against,” Camara dos Deputados, April 17, 2016, updated April 19, 2016, https://translate.google.com.br/translate?sl=pt&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=pt-BR&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww2.camara.leg.br%2Fcamaranoticias%2Fnoticias%2FPOLITICA%2F507325-CAMARA-AUTORIZA-INSTAURACAO-DE-PROCESSO-DE-IMPEACHMENT-DE-DILMA-COM-367-VOTOS-A-FAVOR-E-137-CONTRA.html&edit-text=&act=url.
129. “New Brazil Gov’t to Cut Public Spending, Audit Social Welfare Programs,” Agencia EFE, May 13, 2016, www.efe.com/efe/english/portada/new-brazil-gov-t-to-cut-public-spending-audit-social-welfare-programs/50000260-2925534.
130. Kelly Oliveira, “Banco Central diz que pretende alcançar meta de inflação em 2017,” Agência Brasil (Brazil’s state media), June 28, 2016, http://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/economia/noticia/2016-06/banco-central-diz-que-pretende-alcancar-meta-de-inflacao-em-2017.
131. Daniel Lima, “Ilan Goldfajn Appointed as Brazil Central Bank Governor,” Agência Brasil, May 17, 2016, http://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/en/economia/noticia/2016-05/ilan-goldfajn-appointed-brazil-central-bank-governor.
132. “Ilan Goldfajn,” Banco Central do Brasil, www.bcb.gov.br/pre/quemequem/ingl/ilanGoldfajn-i.asp?idpai=who.
133. Afonso Benites, “Efeito dominó: cai ministro do Turismo, o terceiro do Governo Temer,” El País (Madrid), June 16, 2016, http://brasil.elpaís.com/brasil/2016/06/16/politica/1466106529_072116.html.
134. “Temer se prepara para privatizar Petrobrás, Banco do Brasil, Correios, Infraero e mais 4 estatais,” Plantão Brasil, May 16, 2016, www.plantaobrasil.net/news.asp?nID=94352.
135. “Brazil’s New Government Imposes Rio Water Privatisation to Pay for Olympic Games,” Corporate Europe Observatory, July 14, 2016, http://corporateeurope.org/water/2016/07/brazil-new-government-imposes-rio-water-privatisation-pay-olympic-games.
136. “Temer Is Booed During the Opening of the Olympiad in Rio,” O Globo (Rio de Janeiro), August 8, 2016, https://translate.google.com.br/translate?sl=pt&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=pt-BR&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fg1.globo.com%2Frio-de-janeiro %2Folimpiadas%2Frio2016%2Fnoticia%2F2016%2F08%2Ftemer-e-vaiado-durante-abertura-da-olimpiada-no-rio.html&edit-text=&act=url.
137. Reuters, “Brazil’s Unemployment Rate Hits 4-Year High as Recession Bites,” Daily Mail, July 29, 2016, www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/reuters/article-3714665/Brazils-unemployment-rate-hits-4-year-high-recession-bites.html#ixzz4Fwu0WdRN.
138. David Biller, “Brazil’s Meirelles Calls for Tighter Budget to Avoid More Taxes,” Bloomberg, July 25, 2016, www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-25/brazil-s-meirelles-calls-for-tighter-budget-to-avoid-more-taxes.
139. Alonso Soto and Lisandra Paraguassu, “Brazil’s Foreign Minister Warns against Overappreciation of Real,” Reuters, July 15, 2016, www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-serra-real/brazils-foreign-minister-warns-against-overappreciation-of-real-idUSKCN0ZV24V.
140. Carolina Meyer, “The Price of Henrique Meirelles for the JBS,” Exame, May 20, 2017, https://translate.google.com.br/translate?sl=pt&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=pt-BR&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fexame.abril.com.br%2Frevista-exame%2Fo-preco-de-henrique-meirelles%2F&edit-text=.
141. Samantha Pearson, “Brazil Taps Veteran Economist as Central Bank Chief,” Financial Times, May 17, 2016, www.ft.com/content/5ef4dd4a-1c49-11e6-a7bc-ee846770ec15.
142. Arthur Ordones, “Conheça o homem que irá salvar a economia do Brasil,” Arena, May 12, 2016, http://arenadodinheiro.com.br/educacao-financeira/conheca-o-homem-que-ira-salvar-a-economia-do-brasil/.
143. Julia Leite and Raymond Colitt, “Brazil Economy Chief Not Worried About Austerity Backlash,” Bloomberg, May 13, 2016, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-13/brazil-economy-chief-not-worried-about-austerity-backlash.
144. Jonathan Watts and Donna Bowater, “Brazil’s Dilma Rousseff Impeached by Senate in Crushing Defeat,” Guardian (Manchester), September 1, 2016, www.theguardian.com/world/2016/aug/31/dilma-rousseff-impeached-president-brazilian-senate-michel-temer.
145. Gustavo Garcia, Fernanda Calgaro, Filipe Matoso, Laís Lis, and Mateus Rodrigues, “Senate Approves Impeachment, Dilma Loses Term, and Temer Takes Over,” O Globo (Rio de Janeiro), August 31, 2016, https://translate.google.com.br/translate?sl=pt&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=pt-BR&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fg1.globo.com%2Fpolitica%2Fprocesso-de-impeachment-de-dilma%2Fnoticia%2F2016%2F08%2Fsenado-aprova-impeachment-dilma-perde-mandato-e-temer-assume.html&edit-text=&act=url.
146. Matt Sandy, “Brazilian Politician Who Led Rousseff Impeachment Arrested on Corruption Charges,” Guardian (Manchester), October 19, 2016, www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/19/eduardo-cunha-arrested-corruption-charges-brazil.
147. “Brazil’s Temer Announces Labor Reform Proposal,” Global Times, December 16, 2016, www.globaltimes.cn/content/1025347.shtml.
148. Silvio Cascione and Marcela Ayres, “Interview—Brazil Has No ‘Plan B’ for Pension Reform—Meirelles,” Reuters, February 21, 2017, www.reuters.com/article/brazil-economy-meirelles/interview-brazil-has-no-plan-b-for-pension-reform-meirelles-idUKL1N1G61Y7.
149. Lise Alves, “S&P Maintains Brazil’s Junk Status and Negative Outlook,” Rio Times, February 13, 2017, http://riotimesonline.com/brazil-news/rio-business/sp-maintains-brazils-junk-status-and-negative-outlook/.
150. Kelly Oliveira, “In New York, Meirelles Says That Recession Is Over and It’s Time to Invest in Brazil,” EBC, September 20, 2017, https://translate.google.com.br/translate?sl=pt&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=pt-BR&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fagenciabrasil.ebc.com.br%2Feconomia%2Fnoticia%2F2017-09%2Fem-nova-york-meirelles-diz-que-recessao-acabou-e-e-hora-de-investir-no&edit-text=&act=url.
151. “‘Brazil Is Growing, and the Recession Is Over,’ Says Henrique Meirelles,” Brazil Monitor, February 21, 2017, www.brazilmonitor.com/index.php/2017/02/21/brazil-is-growing-and-the-recession-is-over-says-henrique-meirelles/.
152. Joe Leahy, “Brazil’s Central Bank Cuts Benchmark Rate to 12.25%,” Financial Times, February 22, 2017, www.ft.com/content/49f29774-0f3e-38bd-bbfb-451f4bdb3ca8.
153. Anthony Boadle and Marcela Ayres, “Brazil Senate Passes Spending Cap in Win for Temer,” Reuters, December 13, 2016, www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics-idUSKBN142203.
154. Radioculture, “Minimum Wage May Be $979 in 2018,” Rádio Online, July 7, 2017, https://translate.google.com.br/translate?sl=pt&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=pt-BR&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.radioculturafoz.com.br%2Fsalario-minimo-podera-ser-de-r-979-em-2018%2F&edit-text=&act=url.
155. Wellton Máximo and Marcelo Brandão, “Labor Reform to Boost Economic Recovery, Says Brazil Finance Minister,” Agência Brasil, July 13, 2017, http://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/en/politica/noticia/2017-07/labor-reform-boost-economic-recovery-says-brazil-finance-minister.
156. “‘Economics Go Well,’ Says Henrique Meirelles to Journalists During G20 Summit,” Brasil Economico, July 7, 2017, https://translate.google.com.br/translate?sl=pt&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=pt-BR&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Feconomia.ig.com.br%2F2017-07-07%2Fhenrique-meirelles-g20.html&edit-text=&act=url.
157. “Brazil May Economic Activity Falls Unexpectedly as Recovery Seesaws,” Reuters, July 14, 2017, www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-economy-activity-idUSKBN19Z19W.
158. Mary Sadler, “Political Tensions in Brazil: Former President Lula’s Conviction,” Market Realist, July 13, 2017, http://marketrealist.com/2017/07/political-tensions-in-brazil-former-president-lulas-conviction/.
159. Idiana Tomazelli, “PSD Invites Meirelles to Run for President in 2018,” Estadão, September 13, 2017, https://translate.google.com.br/translate?sl=pt&tl=en&js =y&prev=_t&hl=pt-BR&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fpolitica.estadao.com.br%2Fnoticias%2Fgeral%2Cpsdb-convida-meirelles-para-disputar-a-presidencia-em-2018%2C70001993411&edit-text=&act=url.
CHAPTER 3: CHINA: DRAGON RISING
1. Zhiyuan Cui, “Making Sense of the Chinese ‘Socialist Market Economy’: A Note,” Modern China 38, no. 6 (2012): 665–676, www.jstor.org/stable/41702477?seq=1#p
age_scan_tab_contents.
2. Jiang Zemin, speech by President Jiang Zemin of the People’s Republic of China, at luncheon by the America China Society and five other organizations, October 30, 1997, Asia Society, http://asiasociety.org/speech-president-jiang-zemin-peoples-republic-china?page=0,0.
3. “Profile: Jiang Zemin,” BBC News, October 23, 2012, www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-20038774.
4. Keith Bradsher, “China’s Central Bank Cuts Interest Rates,” New York Times, November 26, 2008, www.nytimes.com/2008/11/27/business/worldbusiness/27yuan.html; “China Interest Rate: 1996–2017” chart, TradingEconomics.com, https://tradingeconomics.com/china/interest-rate.
5. Olivia Oran and Sruthi Shankar, “Morgan Stanley Claims Another Trading Victory over Rival Goldman Sachs,” Reuters, July 19, 2017, www.reuters.com/article/us-morgan-stanley-results-idUSKBN1A411F.
6. Reuters and AFP, “China: Yuan Not Key to Curbing Inflation,” China Post, March 7, 2008, http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:6dSbYD8SbzoJ:www.chinapost.com.tw/business/2008/03/07/146039/China%253A-Yuan.htm+&cd=1&hl=pt-BR&ct=clnk&gl=br&client=firefox-b-ab.
7. “Chinese Yuan Renminbi (CNY) to US Dollar (USD) 2008 History,” FX-Exchange.com, www.fx-exchange.com/currencyimages/2008/cny/the-year-of-2008-cny-usd-exchange-rates-history-graph.png.
8. Gao Ying, “China Should Be Cautious of US Subprime Crisis,” Xinhua, March 6, 2008, www.gov.cn/english/2008-03/06/content_911457.htm; “China Central Bank Says Direct Impact of US Subprime Crisis Limited,” Nuclear Power Daily, March 6, 2008, www.nuclearpowerdaily.com/reports/China_Central_Bank_Says_Direct_Impact_Of_US_Subprime_Crisis_Limited_999.html.
9. “China Inflation Hits 11-Year High,” BBC News, February 19, 2008, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7252010.stm.
10. Lu Jianxin, “Yuan Hits High vs Dlr, Worries of Policy Shift Ease,” Reuters, March 14, 2008, www.reuters.com/article/markets-china-yuan-midday-idCNTSHA26727720080314.
11. Renminbi directly translates to “the people’s currency.” The yuan is the unit of renminbi, as in what something costs. The two terms are used interchangeably.
