Parovsky caught news bytes over the subsequent days about the escalating crisis. It was all very reminiscent of Russian actions in the lead-up to their invasions of Georgia and Ukraine with ethnic Russian populations calling for closer ties with Moscow at odds with their government’s inclination towards the west, followed by Russian threats and then massing of military forces on the border.
Parovsky emailed Chaseman a one sentence message: “There’s nothing like a few dozen Russian T-90 tanks rolling down the streets of the capital of a former Soviet republic to remind those now-independent countries that Russia is still the one calling the shots, even with all their nice relations with the west and messages of solidarity from Uncle Sam!”
“The Russians don’t like challenges to their power.” Chaseman wrote back. Russia had gone through the humiliating dissolution of the Soviet Union back in 1991 and it had taken them a quarter century to rebound. Now they could flex their muscles again. “When the Russians were angered by upstart neighbors and saber-rattled by moving troops to the border, it wasn’t just to intimidate; they usually act,” Chaseman noted.
The Russians further fanned the flames with a media social engineering campaign that spread false and inflammatory rumors. Russian-language editorials, posters appearing throughout Russian areas, tweets and blog posts invoked the memory of the 2007 removal of the Soviet Bronze Soldier monument as a major escalation of Estonian’s persecution and legitimization of the country’s ethnic Russians. Blatantly inaccurate stories generated by the Russian propaganda mill claimed that in light of Russian moves in Ukraine, Estonia was planning to expel its ethnic Russian population. Naturally this inflamed the Russian minority, which felt threatened and—on cue-began calling on Russia for protection.
The response was predictable: Russian self-defense groups formed, becoming militias that posed true threats to the Estonian state. While the Estonian government categorically denied the allegations and suggested the rumors were a ploy, Estonian military forces moved to disarm the militias, which in appearance seemed to validate the rumors of planned expulsions. Estonia’s Russian minority clamored for Russia’s support and protection. Russia moved troops to the border and issued warnings to Estonia. Moscow’s plan was working like a charm!
Russia’s media broadcast videos of rocket launchers firing off volleys of Grad rockets, and the latest T-90 tanks plowing through obstacles and firing on the move, their cannons remaining steady and locked on target while the vehicle bounced over rough terrain. The message to Tallinn was crystal clear.
Estonia accused Russia of threatening its sovereignty via the military build-up, which Russia categorically denied. “It is just a routine military exercise,” the Kremlin spokesperson responded to reporters’ inquiries, “with all Russian forces operating within Russia’s sovereign territory.” Estonia accused Russia of intimidation and provocation. Knowing it had no chance militarily against Russia, Estonia’s tactic was to draw international attention and rely on diplomatic intervention by the European Union or United Nations to resolve the crisis. Given its small size, Estonia knew Russian troops could capture the entire country before any help could arrive. Ideally, Estonia sought a NATO ground force deployed to show solidarity, believing that the most likely deterrent to possible Russian aggression. Meanwhile, Russia seemed to be paying no notice to the NATO Baltic Air Policing Mission that provided air cover over the Baltic states of Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania— all NATO members—that lack means of their own to respond with fast jet intercepts.
Russia upped the ante when its unmanned aerial vehicles—UAVs or drones, as they were once known- began overflying Estonian territory in clear violation of Estonia’s sovereign airspace, another escalation in its bullying of its tiny neighbor. Estonian early-warning radar picked up a Russian UAV, and air defense forces succeeded in downing the intelligence-gathering platform with a ZU-23 twin-barreled autocannon whose 23mm rounds tore the UAV to shreds. Estonia protested the incident at the United Nations as evidence of Russian aggression and violation of its sovereignty. Russia claimed the UAV was flying over Russian territory and that it was attacked by Estonia in an act of aggression, adding that there would be repercussions for Estonia’s “irresponsible action.”
Parovsky’s ear was now attuned to anything about the crisis. At the gym where he worked out, one evening he caught a blurb on one of the news channels.
“The U.S. Government has refused the Estonian government’s request for arms and other military equipment,” the anchor reported. “The President told INN News that he has ruled out military intervention in response to Russia’s moves against Estonia, but a diplomatic coalition effort is underway.” Parovsky shook his head in disbelief. All he could think was that the West would stand by once again while Russia picked up the pieces of its former Soviet empire.
Parovsky continued watching the drama play out in Estonia. “It’s precisely following the pattern of Georgia and Ukraine. Pardon the cliché ,” he emailed Chaseman, “but the writing is on the wall,” confirming what Chaseman already knew. Over a secure video chat system, Chaseman shared with Parovsky that Intell had intercepted a conversation where the Russian president clearly stated that he could not tolerate that the government in Tallinn is a member of NATO.
“I won’t have NATO on my doorstep,” Chaseman recounted reading in a transcript of the classified interception report, adding, “seems he’s a bit delusional about being surrounded by NATO.”
“The U.S. didn’t like Soviet missiles in Cuba and nearly went to war over it,” Parovsky reminded Chaseman. Russian resentment of NATO’s encroachment on its territory was no secret, and was even understandable.
“Well, the West isn’t gonna’ go to war over some dinky former Soviet republic. It’s more than that,” Chaseman continued. “The Russian president spoke of ‘re-establishing dominion over a Eurasian sphere of influence,’ and that he wants to be the dominant power in areas with large populations of ethnic Russians. He’s even said this publicly. I remember it because I loved the metaphor he used, saying he was sympathetic for all those ethnic Russians who, ‘went to bed in one country’ when the Soviet Union broke up, ‘and awoke in different ones, overnight becoming ethnic minorities.”’
Russia’s military activity along its border with Estonia continued. Estonia called up its Voluntary Defense League auxiliaries and deployed troops defensively along the frontier with Russia.
Ethnic Russians in Estonia issued a plea for assistance, claiming Estonia’s military mobilization was directed against them. The coil was being wound tighter and tighter, resulting in a precariously dangerous situation. Defusing it meant Estonia standing down, bowing to its ethnic Russian minority, if not being forced to capitulate to Russian demands for autonomy in Russian areas. Estonia could not stand for that.
Stoked by pro-Russian nationalistic slogans and propaganda, drunken ethnic Russian teenagers took to the streets one balmy evening looking for trouble. Tipped off in advance, Estonian police were out in force. Encountering a cordon of riot-gear equipped police, the scene quickly deteriorated when the Russian teenagers began hurling rocks and bricks at the police barricade, overturning cars, ripping out street signs and setting fires. Officers wielding rubber batons darted into the protesting crowd to make an occasional arrest before retreating. Police fired tear gas canisters and stun grenades, and then called in water cannons to suppress the frenzied rioters, some of whom waved Russian flags.
PROVOCATION, ESCALATION & WAR
Part 2
The true spark was a Molotov cocktail attack on an Estonian police vehicle in the primarily Russian city of Narva. It was like so many cases of police being unprepared and ill-equipped at dealing with large- scale civilian riots without exacerbating the violence. Police opened fire, which drew counter small arms and rifle-grenade fire from the ethnic Russian militants, who by this time were well-armed with Russian military equipment, and controlled entire neighb
orhoods and towns in the areas bordering Russia. Estonian army units were called in; armored cars and mortar units moved against sources of sniper fire and subdued them.
“Another gross escalation” was the way the Russians described it. Estonia complained to the United Nations that Russia was giving material support to the separatists in a gross violation of Estonian sovereignty. Russia insisted it had not intervened in the fighting, and countered with cynical criticism of Estonia’s military for cracking down on the pro-Russian rebels. Russia’s foreign ministry warned that an “extensive military conflict” was on the brink of erupting. To both stabilize their internal situation and demonstrate that they were not deterred by Russian threats, Estonia deployed tanks, armored vehicles and artillery to areas with high concentrations of ethnic Russians to deter further separatist attacks. Russia responded by putting its forces stationed nearby on high alert. Mechanized infantry, tanks, artillery, airborne assault forces and marine units began preparing for war. This was pure Russian brawn in action.
From Stenbock House in Tallinn, Estonia’s prime minister called for a ceasefire with the separatists, which the ethnic Russians dismissed as a ploy to buy time while the army positioned itself for an offensive. Estonia’s government stated it wanted talks to find an equitable solution, but insisted on ethnic Russian recognition of Estonian law and order. Meanwhile, Estonian Russians began demanding self-rule. The Russian Foreign Ministry called for the Estonian government to begin a dialogue with the separatists. Estonia withdrew its tanks from the Russian areas as a good-will gesture and called upon Russia to stand down the separatists; Russia claimed it had no influence over them.
Hackers—presumably Russian state-sponsored—hit Estonian government, news and social network websites. Despite all the investments and precautions taken since Russia’s 2007 crippling cyber-attack on Estonia’s network infrastructure that knocked out parliament, government ministries, banks and news outlet websites, again the Russians were able to easily incapacitate Estonia’s network infrastructure with cyber-attacks. In the constantly evolving cat-and-mouse game of advances in protective measures followed by breaches by determined hackers, Estonia hadn’t been nimble enough in constantly improving defenses, and hackers were able to get past them. This caused a crisis of confidence in the Estonian government, whose assurances that the country’s network infrastructure was secure proved completely wrong.
Russian troops were ordered in. Estonia’s border guard proved helpless, and the Russians confidently entered Estonia. As the column of camouflage or olive green-painted tanks, armored fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers and trucks laden with troops, fuel, ammunition, and provisions rolled through the border city of Narva, they were cheered by ecstatic crowds lining the streets throwing candies and flowers at the soldiers, welcoming the invading Russian troops as liberators. Narva’s mayor changed the name of the stretch of European route E20 that traversed his city to be named after Russia’s president, which didn’t win him friends in Tallinn.
Russian propaganda seized on these images of the warm welcome, broadcast for the world to see and recorded for posterity by their cameras, to illustrate the open arms that received them and declare it demonstrates the justice of their cause and morality of their actions.
After such a warm welcome in the predominantly ethnic Russian city, the Russian troops grew complacent. Under gray clouds and a heavy mist hanging in the air, the Russian column continued westward on the main road running from the border towards Rakvere and then on towards the capital, as if in a military parade: their tanks and armored personnel carriers lined up one after the other, with commanders exposed in the cupola. The armored vehicles leading the column chugged ahead noisily and hesitatingly, occasionally spewing thick black smoke from their exhausts.
The unsuspecting Russians certainly did not expect to face the small Estonian ambush force that awaited them in a wooded area just beyond the city limits. Hearing the tell-tale high-pitched metallic clanking noise identifying oncoming armored vehicles and feeling the vibrations through the ground as the column neared, the force hidden in the foliage nervously awaited the invading tank column. The awesome power projected by a 50-ton behemoth main battle tank can be terrifying. As the Estonian soldiers laid in wait for their prey, they couldn’t help but be humbled by the armor heading their way. Drops of sweat and condensation dripped from the camouflaged Estonian soldiers’ faces as they waited nervously.
While there were some gung-ho, aggressive Estonian officers, there was a camp in Estonia’s leadership that believed resisting the Russians would just piss them off. Let the Russians prove their point before the television cameras and the world that indeed with its 140 million citizens and all its resources it is stronger than not-even-1.5 million- strong Estonia. So let the Russians come in and maraud, and then return home, leaving a bruised and beaten Estonia to clean up the mess left behind, this thinking went, without loss of Estonian lives. When the crisis blows over, this line of reasoning went, the two sides could discuss the issues as mature adults. Naive perhaps given Russia’s recent history in Georgia and Ukraine, but a reaction born out of fear in a country that hadn’t fired a shot in anger in some 70 years, since the Second World War. Estonia had to overcome the psychological barrier of actually killing Russians. Even though Russia was clearly the aggressor and was invading their country, until this point it was mostly without loss of life. Now the onus was on the Estonians to stop the Russians, and that meant pulling the trigger, which wasn’t easy to do. These were no blood-thirsty jihadist militants, but rather civilized Europeans.
They overcame the hesitation. Simultaneous sniper fire took out a number of Russian tank commanders, and anti-tank guided missiles fired from the thick wood slammed into their targets, knocking out the lead tank and others in the advancing column. Reddish-orange-grey fireballs erupted after missile impacts on tanks, sending shockwaves reverberating outward. A missile ripped into an armored vehicle, setting it ablaze and filling the crew compartment with smoke. Shredded hydraulic lines kept the hatch locked, trapping four soldiers inside the vehicle as flames spread towards the fuel tanks.
Estonian snipers shot at any exposed Russians. Heads exploded from bullet impacts that shattered skulls and splattered brain matter. Bodies slumped over, or fell limp back into their vehicles, which ran off the road, plowed into one another or just stopped dead—literally—in their tracks. Casualties are never a good thing when commanders have pitched an invasion as a simple “show of support” rather than calling it as it truly was: an act of war.
Thick black and gray smoke billowing from burning vehicles filled the air, which had that acrid smell of burning fuel and rubber. In the first news to reach the international media, a wire service correspondent in Narva reported a column of black smoke rising into the sky from the west.
Once the Russian column stopped advancing and the shooting stopped, all became eerily silent. The Estonian ambush force used the lull to pull back, awaiting orders on where to strike next. Then as eardrums stopped pounding, cries and moans of wounded men could be heard.
Some of the Russian soldiers hunkered down in their tanks and armored vehicles while others scurried to escape damaged or burning vehicles. The scene was a mixture of panic and pandemonium until the experienced Russian colonel commanding the column took control of the situation, ordering tank support combat vehicles known as “Terminators” forward to engage the attackers. There was a deafening roar as the Terminators blasted away with their 30mm cannons, grenade launchers and coaxial machine guns into the woods, shredding trees, bushes, shrubs and anything else in their destructive path. One could make out the distinctive whoosh of missile launches, tak-tak-tak of machine gun fire, and later the occasional secondary explosion as tank ammunition in the burning armor cooked off.
Terminators were a lesson the Russians had learned fighting in Chechnya, where Chechen tank-killer teams firing from basements and upper floors in buil
t-up areas decimated Russian armor, whose turrets lacked the necessary barrel elevation and depression to fire at their attackers. Terminator tank support combat vehicles with their superior reach were added to the Russian order of battle to protect its armor columns—especially in urban scenarios- and prevent heavy armor losses like those experienced in Chechnya.
Had the Estonians prepared their ambush from both sides of the road, the outcome would have been far more devastating to the Russians, but lacking experience, they feared they might wind up with friendly fire incidents. Despite past participation in joint training exercises with fellow NATO countries, on its own against a real enemy shooting real bullets and ordnance at them, for the Estonians it was a case of “fire and flee.” This was not the World War II Polish cavalry taking on Nazi Germany’s panzers. It was the best Estonia could do; they knew full well their infantry fighting vehicles were no match for first-rate Russian tanks. The Estonian force had momentarily eviscerated this armored representation of Russian power, certainly a feel-good, morale-building moment for both army and country. But it angered the Russians, who learned to take a more martial approach to the incursion. From then on their armor advanced hatch-down, to the chagrin of the crews cooped-up inside claustrophobic, stuffy and at times terrifying metal boxes, with no situational awareness of what is going on outside.
In another sector, Estonian soldiers were not sure when to actually open fire. Not wanting to limit their effectiveness by shooting too early and alerting the Russians, in the end they were overrun and captured because of their indecisiveness and lack of experience.
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