by Vali Nasr
10. Christoph Reuter, Gregor Peter Schmitz, and Holger Stark, “How German Diplomats Opened Channel to Taliban,” Der Spiegel, January 10, 2012, http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,808068,00.html.
11. Ahmed Rashid, Pakistan on the Brink: The Future of America, Pakistan, and Afghanistan (New York: Viking, 2012), pp. 113–36.
12. Rod Norland and Alissa Rubin, “Taliban Captives Dispute U.S. View on Afghanistan War,” New York Times, February 2, 2012, p. A1.
13. Later in 2010, Aisha, whose ears had been sliced off as well, received reconstructive surgery from plastic surgeons in Los Angeles. See http://www.theage.com.au/world/doctors-rebuild-face-and-future-of-afghan-child-bride-20101014-16lt2.html.
14. By this time there were a number of serious studies of how to carry out reconciliation talks, and some had influence on debates inside the White House. Lakhdar Brahimi and Thomas C. Pickering, Afghanistan: Negotiating Peace (New York: Century Foundation, 2011); James Shinn and James Dobbins, Afghan Peace Talks: A Primer (Washington, DC: RAND Corporation, 2011).
CHAPTER 3: WHO LOST PAKISTAN?
1. Vali Nasr, “No More Bullying Pakistan,” Bloomberg View, July 5, 2012, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-05/u-s-apology-ends-doomed-policy-of-bullying-pakistan-vali-nasr.html.
2. Admiral Mullen’s comments are quoted in Stephen Krasner, “Talking Tough to Pakistan,” Foreign Affairs, January/February 2012, pp. 87–96.
3. Jeffrey Goldberg and Marc Ambinder, “The Ally from Hell,” Atlantic, December 2011, http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2011/12/the-ally-from-hell/8730/.
4. Bruce Riedel, “A New Pakistan Policy: Containment,” New York Times, October 14, 2011, p. A19; Zalmay Khalilzad, “A Strategy of ‘Congagement’ Toward Pakistan,” Washington Quarterly 35, no. 2 (Winter 2012): 107–19. See also, Gerald Stang, “US Strategic Interests in South Asia: What Not to Do with Pakistan,” European Union Institute for Security Studies, June 25, 2012, http://www.iss.europa.eu/publications/detail/article/us-strategic-interests-in-south-asia-what-not-to-do-with-pakistan/.
5. “U.S. Embassy Cables: ‘Reviewing Our Afghanistan-Pakistan Strategy,’ ” Guardian, November 30, 2010, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/us-embassy-cables-documents/226531.
6. See Matthew Teague, “Black Ops and Blood Money,” Men’s Journal, June 2011, http://www.mensjournal.com/black-ops-and-blood-money.
7. Thorough accounts of this relationship can be found in Dennis Kux, The United States and Pakistan, 1947–2000: Disenchanted Allies (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2001) and Teresita Schaffer and Howard Schaffer, How Pakistan Negotiates with the United States: Riding the Roller Coaster (Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace, 2011).
8. Ahmed Rashid, Descent into Chaos: The United States and the Failure of Nation Building in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Central Asia (New York: Viking, 2008).
9. Pervez Musharraf, In the Line of Fire: A Memoir (New York: Free Press, 2006), p. 201.
10. Steve Coll, “Looking for Mulla Omar,” New Yorker, January 23, 2012, p. 52.
11. Declan Walsh and Eric Schmitt, “Militant Group Poses Risk to U.S.-Pakistan Relations,” New York Times, July 31, 2012, p. A1.
12. David Rohde and Kristen Mulvihill, A Rope and a Prayer: A Kidnapping from Two Sides (New York: Viking, 2010).
13. Ahmed Rashid, Pakistan on the Brink: The Future of America, Pakistan, and Afghanistan (New York: Viking, 2012), p. 150.
14. Goldberg and Ambinder, “The Ally from Hell.”
15. Barnett R. Rubin and Ahmed Rashid, “From Great Game to Grand Bargain: Ending Chaos in Afghanistan and Pakistan,” Foreign Affairs, November/December 2008, pp. 30–44.
16. The best account of the war and Pakistan’s role in it is Steve Coll, Ghost Wars: The Secret History of the CIA, Afghanistan, and Bin Laden, from the Soviet Invasion to September 10, 2001 (New York: Penguin Press, 2004).
17. Bruce Riedel, Deadly Embrace: Pakistan, America and the Future of Global Jihad (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2011).
18. Imtiaz Gul, The Most Dangerous Place: Pakistan’s Lawless Frontier (New York: Viking, 2010), pp. 112–29.
19. Cited in Mohsin Hamid, “Why They Get Pakistan Wrong,” New York Review of Books, September 29, 2011, http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2011/sep/29/why-they-get-pakistan-wrong/?pagination=false.
20. Zahid Hussain, “Pakistan’s Most Dangerous Place,” Wilson Quarterly, Winter 2012, http://www.wilsonquarterly.com/article.cfm?aid=2097.
21. William Safire, “Wide World of Words,” New York Times, April 26, 2009, p. MM16.
22. Pir Zubair Shah, “My Drone War,” Foreign Policy, March/April 2012, pp. 58–62.
23. Jane Mayer, “The Predator War,” New Yorker, October 26, 2009, http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2009/10/26/091026fa_fact_mayer; David Sanger, Confront and Conceal: Obama’s Secret Wars and Surprising Use of American Power (New York: Crown, 2012), pp. 243–70.
24. Krasner, “Talking Tough to Pakistan,” p. 87.
25. Riedel, “New Pakistan Policy.”
26. Seth Jones, Hunting in the Shadows: The Pursuit of Al-Qaeda Since 9/11 (New York: Norton, 2012), pp. 417–32.
27. Peter Bergen, Manhunt: The Ten-Year Search for Bin Laden from 9/11 to Abbottabad (New York: Crown, 2012).
28. Sanger, Confront and Conceal, p. 10.
29. Eric Schmitt, “Lull in Strikes by U.S. Drones Aids Militants in Pakistan,” New York Times, January 8, 2012, p. A1.
30. Karen DeYoung and Karin Brulliard, “ ‘A New Normal’ for U.S., Pakistan,” Washington Post, January 17, 2012; http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/as-us-pakistani-relations-sink-nations-try-to-figure-out-a-new-normal/2012/01/13/gIQAklfw3P_story.html.
CHAPTER 4: IRAN: BETWEEN WAR AND CONTAINMENT
1. Gordon M. Goldstein, Lessons in Disaster: McGeorge Bundy and the Path to War in Vietnam (New York: Henry Holt, 2008), pp. 178 and 186.
2. Ibid.
3. George Stephanopoulos, “The Must Read Book for Obama’s War Team,” ABC News, September 22, 2009, http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2009/09/the-mustread-book-for-obamas-war-team/.
4. See Obama’s interview with Jeffrey Goldberg, “Obama to Iran and Israel: ‘As President of the United States, I Don’t Bluff,’ ” Atlantic, March 2, 2012, http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/03/obama-to-iran-and-israel-as-president-of-the-united-states-i-dont-bluff/253875/.
5. Goldstein, Lessons in Disaster, p. 184.
6. Vali Nasr, “Obama Needs to Go the Whole Mile on Iran Diplomacy,” Bloomberg View, March 13, 2012, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-13/obama-need-to-go-whole-mile-on-iran-diplomacy-vali-nasr.html.
7. Michael R. Gordon and General Bernard E. Trainor, The Endgame: The Inside Story of the Struggle for Iraq from George W. Bush to Barack Obama (New York: Pantheon, 2012), pp. 312–28.
8. Stephen Graubard, “Lunch with the FT: Henry Kissinger,” Financial Times, May 24, 2008, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/6d4b5fb8-285a-11dd-8f1e-000077b07658.html#axzz1pIrOuTFv.
9. James Dobbins, After the Taliban: Nation Building in Afghanistan (Washington, DC: Potomac Books, 2008).
10. Barnett Rubin and Sara Batmanglich, “The U.S. and Iran in Afghanistan: A Policy Gone Awry,” MIT Center for International Studies, October 2008, http://web.mit.edu/cis/editorspick_rubin08_audit.html.
11. Author interview with a former Iranian government official who was present at that meeting with Khamenei.
12. Author interview with President Khatami, Davos, Switzerland, January 2007.
13. Vali Nasr, “Who Wins in Iraq: Iran,” Foreign Policy, February 13, 2007, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2007/02/13/who_wins_in_iraq.
14. Bassem Mrou, “Talabani Says Iranians Ready for Talks With U.S. on Regional Security,” Associated Press, January 20, 2007, http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1665&dat=20070120&id=JZNPAAAAIBAJ&sjid=OCUEAAAAIBAJ&pg=3299,3780514.
15. Author interview with Iranian official, Ju
ly 2007.
16. Cited in “Khamenei Denies Nuclear Weapon,” Iran Primer, United States Institute for Peace, February 22, 2012, http://iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2012/feb/22/part-i-khamenei-denies-nuclear-weapon; Nick Cumming-Bruce, “Iran Calls Nuclear Arms Production a ‘Great Sin,’ ” New York Times, February 28, 2012, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/29/world/middleeast/iran-calls-for-negotiations-on-treaty-banning-nuclear-weapons.html.
17. “In Heavy Waters: Iran’s Nuclear Program, the Risk of War and Lessons from Turkey,” Middle East and Europe Report no. 116, International Crisis Group, February 23, 2012, p. 2, http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/Iran%20Gulf/Iran/116—in-heavy-waters-irans-nuclear-program-the-risk-of-war-and-lessons-from-turkey.pdf.
18. Mohsen Milani, “Tehran’s Take,” Foreign Affairs, July/August 2009, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/65123/mohsen-m-milani/tehrans-take.
19. Vali Nasr, The Shia Revival: How Conflicts within Islam Will Shape the Future (New York: Norton, 2006), pp. 147–68.
20. Ray Takeyh, Guardians of the Revolution: Iran and the World in the Age of the Ayatollahs (New York: Oxford University Press, 2009), p. 245.
21. Shahram Chubin, Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2006).
22. Cumming-Bruce, “Iran Calls Nuclear Arms Production,” p. A7.
23. Dennis Ross, “Calling Iran’s Bluff: It’s Time to Offer Tehran a Civilian Nuclear Program,” New Republic, June 15, 2012, http://www.tnr.com/article/politics/104085/calling-iran%E2%80%99s-bluff-its-time-offer-iran-civilian-nuclear-program?page=0,1.
24. Efrahim Halevy, “Iran’s Achilles Heel,” New York Times, February 7, 2012, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/08/opinion/to-weaken-iran-start-with-syria.html; James P. Rubin, “The Real Reason to Intervene in Syria,” Foreign Policy, June 4, 2012, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/06/04/the_real_reason_to_intervene_in_syria.
25. For a full discussion of Bush administration handling of Iran’s nuclear program see David Sanger, The Inheritance: The World Obama Confronts and the Challenges to American Power (New York: Crown, 2009), pp. 1–108.
26. Ray Takeyh and Suzanne Maloney, “The Self-Limiting Success of Iran Sanctions,” International Affairs 87, no. 6 (2011): 1297–1312.
27. Suzanne Maloney, “How to Contain a Nuclear Iran,” American Prospect, March 5, 2009, http://prospect.org/article/how-contain-nuclear-iran.
28. Hossein Mousavian, Iran’s Nuclear Crisis: A Memoir (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2012).
29. “Blair, Chirac Hope IAEA Confirms Iran’s Voluntary Suspension,” Pay-vand, November 19, 2004, http://www.payvand.com/news/04/nov/1163.html.
30. Hossein Mousavian, “How the U.S.-Iran Standoff Looks from Iran,” Bloomberg View, February 16, 2012, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-17/how-the-u-s-iran-standoff-looks-from-iran-hossein-mousavian.html.
31. Hossein Mousavian, “How to Engage Iran,” Foreign Affairs, February 9, 2012, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/ARTICLES/137095/hossein-mousavian/how-to-engage-iran?page=show.
32. Author interviews with a former Iranian official, June 2010.
33. Robin Wright, “Stuart Levy’s War,” New York Times, October 31, 2008, http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/02/magazine/02IRAN-t.html?pagewanted=all.
34. U.S. State Department cable, Cairo, February 9, 2009, from Ambassador Margaret Scobey to the secretary of state, http://wikileaks.org/cable/2009/02/09CAIRO231.html.
35. U.S. State Department cable, Paris, February 12, 2010, from the American embassy to the secretary of state, http://www.wikileaks.ch/cable/2010/02/10PARIS174.html.
36. Roger Cohen, “Iran’s Day of Anguish,” New York Times, June 14, 2009, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/15/opinion/15iht-edcohen.html?_r=2.
37. Trita Parsi, A Single Roll of the Dice: Obama’s Diplomacy with Iran (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2012), p. 115.
38. David Sanger, Confront and Conceal: Obama’s Secret Wars and Surprising Use of American Power (New York: Crown, 2012), p. 184.
39. David Sanger, “Iran Deal Would Slow Making of Nuclear Bombs,” New York Times, October 21, 2009, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/22/world/middleeast/22nuke.html.
40. Author interview with German diplomat present at the meeting, May 2010.
41. Farideh Farhi, “Anatomy of a Nuclear Breakthrough Gone Backwards,” Middle East Research and Information Project, December 8, 2009, http://www.merip.org/mero/mero120809.
42. Martin Indyk, Kenneth G. Lieberthal, and Michael O’Hanlon, Bending History: Barack Obama’s Foreign Policy (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 2012), pp. 196–98.
43. John Parker, Persian Dreams: Moscow and Tehran Since the Fall of the Shah (Washington, DC: Potomac Books, 2008).
44. Mark Katz, “Iran and Russia,” Iran Primer, United States Institute for Peace, http://iranprimer.usip.org/resource/iran-and-russia.
45. Parsi, Single Roll of the Dice, p. 193.
46. “The Iran Nuclear Issue: The View from Beijing,” Asia Briefing no. 100 (overview), International Crisis Group, February 17, 2010, http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/north-east-asia/china/B100-the-iran-nuclear-issue-the-view-from-beijing.aspx.
47. Dennis Ross and David Makovsky, Myths, Illusions, and Peace: Finding a New Direction for America in the Middle East (New York: Viking, 2009), p. 221.
48. Parag Khanna, The Second World: Empires and Influence in the New Global Order (New York: Random House, 2008).
49. Parsi, Single Roll of the Dice, pp. 172–93.
50. Ibid., p. 187.
51. Ibid., p. 192.
52. Julian Borger, “Text of Iran-Brazil-Turkey Deal,” Guardian, May 17, 2010, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/julian-borger-global-security-blog/2010/may/17/iran-brazil-turkey-nuclear.
53. Sanger, Confront and Conceal, pp. 186–87.
54. Mousavian, Iran’s Nuclear Crisis, p. 18.
55. Roger Cohen, “Doctrine of Silence,” New York Times, November 28, 2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/29/opinion/cohen-doctrine-of-silence.html.
56. Mark Perry, “False Flag,” Foreign Policy, January 13, 2012, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/01/13/false_flag.
57. “Spymaster: Meir Dagan on Iran’s Threat,” 60 Minutes, March 11, 2012, http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-18560_162-57394904/the-spymaster-meir-dagan-on-irans-threat/?tag=contentMain;cbsCarousel.
58. Roger Bergman, “Will Israel Attack Iran?” New York Times, January 29, 2012, p. MM22.
59. Vali Nasr, “Hard-Line U.S. Policy Tips Iran Towards Belligerence,” Bloomberg View, January 4, 2012, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-05/hard-line-u-s-policy-tips-iran-toward-belligerence-vali-nasr.html; “Council on Foreign Relations Foreign Affairs Focus: Vali Nasr on US-Iran Relations,” YouTube, January 25, 2012, http://youtube/NaFC9WFUPfc.
60. Fareed Zakaria, “To Deal With Iran’s Nuclear Future, Go Back to 2008,” Washington Post, October 26, 2011, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/to-deal-with-irans-nuclear-future-go-back-to-2008/2011/10/26/gIQADQyEKM_story.html?hpid=z3.
61. William H. Luers and Thomas Pickering, “Military Action Isn’t the Only Solution to Iran,” Washington Post, December 30, 2011, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/military-action-isnt-the-only-solution-to-iran/2011/12/29/gIQA69sNRP_story.html; William H. Luers and Thomas Pickering, “Envisioning a Deal with Iran,” New York Times, February 2, 2012, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/03/opinion/envisioning-a-deal-with-iran.html.
62. Kateria Azarova and Anissa Naouai, “Step by Step: Russia’s Plan to Bring Iran Back for Good,” RT News, August 17, 2011, http://rt.com/politics/iran-approves-russian-nuclear/.
63. “Iran Will Consider Russia’s Nuclear Plan,” Press TV, January 28, 2012, http://presstv.com/detail/223505.html.
64. Joshua Hersh, “Iran Assassination Plot: Skeptics Question Motive and Method of an ‘Amateur Hour’ Scheme,” Huffington Post, October 12, 2011, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/12/iran-
assassination-plot-skeptics_n_1008068.html.
65. Suzanne Maloney, “Obama’s Counterproductive New Iran Sanctions,” Foreign Affairs, January 5, 2012, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/137011/suzanne-maloney/obamas-counterproductive-new-iran-sanctions.
66. Former Iranian diplomat Hossein Mousavian quoted in Steve Inskeep, “Iran’s Decider: Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei,” National Public Radio, February 23, 2012, http://www.npr.org/2012/02/23/147277389/meet-irans-decider-supreme-leader-khamenei.
67. “Text of Obama’s Speech to AIPAC,” Associated Press, March 4, 2012, http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5ioftJ0jiGfowjv-eLtNgGAVnxphA?docId=1d833bbc98324e338a99fbeccb38b763.
68. Ollie Heinonen, “The 20 Percent Solution,” Foreign Policy, January 11, 2012, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/01/11/the_20_percent_solution.
69. Richard Haass, “Enough Is Enough,” Newsweek, January 22, 2010, http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2010/01/21/enough-is-enough.html.
70. See Fareed Zakaria, “How History Could Deter Iranian Aggression,” Washington Post, February 15, 2012, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/history-could-be-a-deterrent-to-iranian-aggression/2012/02/15/gIQA6UVcGR_story.html, and “Deterring Iran Is the Best Option,” Washington Post, March 14, 2012, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/deterring-iran-is-the-best-option/2012/03/14/gIQA0Y9mCS_story.html; Bruce Riedel, “Iran Is Not an Existential Threat,” thedailynewsegypt.com, January 20, 2012, http://thedailynewsegypt.com/global-views/iran-is-not-an-existential-threat.html; Maloney, “How to Contain a Nuclear Iran.” Earlier iterations of this debate are covered in David Sanger, “Debate Grows on Nuclear Containment of Iran,” New York Times, March 13, 2010, http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/14/weekinreview/14sanger.html. On what containment may look like see James Lindsay and Ray Takeyh, “After Iran Gets the Bomb: Containment and Its Complications,” Foreign Affairs, March/April 2010, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/66032/james-m-lindsay-and-ray-takeyh/after-iran-gets-the-bomb.
