Soon after the call, Ridder asked Hull’s secretary for Hull’s complete divorce file, and as soon as Ridder reviewed it, he called Hull at his vacation home in Sun Valley, Idaho. By far the most explosive document was a seven-page affidavit Brenda Sexton had executed on March 12, 1998, and filed as part of her divorce suit, one that Hull had never laid eyes on: “he never saw the allegations,” Ridder explained. But given the affidavit’s contents, “this campaign’s over if this ever comes out,” Ridder told Hull. He flew to Sun Valley to go over everything with his candidate, and the good news from Hull’s lawyers was that the case file in Hull v. Hull was sealed, making the documents immune from public request.
Discovery of Sexton’s affidavit convinced Ridder there was no point in leaking news of Hull’s arrest to the Sun-Times because “it only leads to the sealed document, and we can’t survive really the sealed document.” An in-person meeting of all the campaign’s consultants was quickly set for Saturday, September 6, at Anita Dunn’s Washington office. Almost twenty people attended, because, as pollster Mark Blumenthal put it, by that point the Hull campaign was “like the Noah’s Ark of consulting: two of everything.” Ridder led the meeting, describing the arrest and the incident report, and alluding to the further allegations in Sexton’s sealed affidavit. There was some discussion regarding how vulnerable a sealed Chicago court file was, but Hull and Sexton were now back on friendly terms. Five months earlier, Sexton had been named director of the Illinois Film Office by Governor Rod Blagojevich, whose gubernatorial campaign Hull had supported with more than $450,000, and Ridder was cautiously optimistic that Sexton would cause no harm. Meeting her at a Chicago Starbucks, Ridder gently asked whether some of the allegations in the sworn affidavit might in retrospect seem overstated, but Brenda “breaks down in tears,” explaining that “I can’t recant” because that “would be perjury.”
Hull’s background was such that “I’m able to estimate probabilities pretty well,” and he asked Ridder: “What are the chances of this story getting out?” Fifty percent, Rick answered. Hull then asked Ridder to poll all the consultants for their estimates of his chances in either instance. “Blair wants your odds on winning if the affidavit becomes public and if the affidavit does not become public,” Ridder told them. Ridder’s own estimate was “5 to 10 percent at most” in the first scenario, but about 40 percent in the latter. Blumenthal had not seen the document, but he knew Barack and Hynes had stronger political bases than did Hull. “If the affidavit becomes public: 20 percent,” he wrote Ridder. “If the affidavit does not become public: 25 percent.” Ridder recalled that these numbers “didn’t faze” Hull, and Hull had a similar memory of it. Most estimates were “25 or 30 percent,” and “that was probably higher than my number,” because Hull believed victory was “a long shot,” although to him that “was a wager that I felt was worth taking.”32
On Labor Day, Barack was in Rockford and then Rock Island. As John Kupper had recommended, a press release drew five Chicago TV stations to a news conference and garnered a Defender headline Kupper could have written: “Obama Seeks to Protect Pensions.” Steve Neal reported that Emil Jones “has bluntly told union leaders that labor should support Obama,” and those efforts had so far blocked Dan Hynes from getting the two-thirds support necessary for the Illinois AFL-CIO’s endorsement. Rich Miller described Hynes as “the man to beat” because of his “big-time labor support” and “the backing of just about every county Democratic chairman.” While Hynes “has put together a pretty good organization,” his name recognition remained “pretty low” for someone who twice had won statewide races for comptroller. But Hynes “has yet to say why he’s running,” and “his campaign is bereft of issues.” In addition, Hynes’s “overly cautious, conservative manner” showed that he “has no anger about him,” despite many Democrats’ strong antipathy toward the Bush Administration. Miller saw Hull “more as a spoiler than a potential victor,” someone who could draw enough votes away from Hynes to help Obama. As “a thoughtful progressive,” Barack “would probably be the best U.S. Senator of all the candidates in either party” if he could overcome “his name and his race.” Miller dismissed Joyce Washington and Gery Chico while commending Nancy Skinner and Maria Pappas’s potential, though the undeclared Pappas “has no organization, no campaign infrastructure,” and “no policy ideas.” Miller wrote that if Barack could “somehow portray” to voters that “by far” he is “the most impressive potential Senator,” he would have “a good shot” at prevailing.
In Springfield, almost everyone knew Steve Rauschenberger “was always the smartest guy in the room.” But Rauschenberger’s desire for the Republican nomination to replace Peter Fitzgerald was hobbled by uncertainty about “whether we can pull together a fund-raising plan that we can execute.” Capitol Fax noted that insiders considered a past DUI arrest as a stain on Rauschenberger’s record, but Miller saw potential in little-known, pro-choice former air force general John Borling because he had been “blown away” by Borling’s “candor and forthright style.” But Illinois Republicans were most focused on Jack Ryan, who “has the good looks, the money and the personal bio to wow voters,” especially suburban women. Given that challenge, soon after Labor Day, Rauschenberger publicly proposed that he and Barack mount their own “Lincoln-Douglas style” series of two-man, bipartisan statewide debates. But Barack, with his campaign on firmer footing than Rauschenberger’s, saw no reason to go toe-to-toe with a whip-smart conservative.
At a West Side birthday event for Congressman Danny Davis, Barack reached back to his Roseland roots and proclaimed that “corporations have an obligation to their workers and to their communities.” Barack’s press clips continued to glow, with Sun-Times columnist Laura Washington echoing Rich Miller in declaring that “Obama is by far the most qualified candidate,” even though “he may be too smart, too reserved, and perceived as too elitist for regular black folk.” Washington explained that “it’s the Uncle Leland problem. My uncle says that low-income and working-class blacks don’t think Obama is ‘down’ enough. It’s a cultural phenomenon, and it’s rooted in an unfortunate strain of anti-intellectualism and distrust of those with close associations with the white power structure.” Steve Neal was more upbeat, writing that “there is growing momentum for Obama in the black community.” Washington contended that Barack “needs a better slogan than his lame ‘a chance to believe again,’” and downstate political reporter Mark Samuels noted that Barack’s “last name rhymes with ‘Osama’” while praising him as “a really bright guy.” Barack told him, “I probably enjoy campaigning more downstate than I do in Chicago,” and oftentimes southern Illinois white voters “remind me of my grandparents.” But Samuels warned that “the backdoor whispering campaign surrounding Obama promises to give a whole new definition to the word ‘ugly.’”33
Crain’s Chicago Business, the weekday newspaper of the city’s commercial elite, looked at Barack’s second-quarter FEC filing. “Obama’s surprisingly strong showing” negated the question of “whether he could raise enough money” to be a top-tier candidate. “I think a lot of people are surprised,” Barack told Crain’s. “It has exceeded my expectations, and it’s very heartening. I think we’re going to be able to keep pace and be competitive with the other candidates,” so long as Barack continued to devote more than twenty hours a week to call time.
One recurring challenge that Barack had faced since 1995 was keeping up with the extensive questionnaires presented to him by various interest groups. A thirty-nine-item one from Illinois NOW proved especially taxing. Audra Wilson took charge of drafting responses to questions that included, “Would you vote to repeal the U.S. Patriot Act?” “Yes. The Patriot Act has the potential to infringe on personal freedoms of many Americans, which is wrong.” Reviewing her answers after unsalaried policy director Raja Krishnamoorthi e-mailed him the draft, Barack rewrote that response. “Yes, I would vote to repeal the U.S. Patriot Act, although I would consider replacing that shoddy
and dangerous law with a new, carefully crafted proposal that addressed in a much more limited fashion the legitimate needs of law enforcement in combating terrorism.”
Audra initially answered “yes” to two questions that asked if Barack supported the elimination of sexual orientation discrimination in the military and repeal of the federal Defense of Marriage Act. Barack changed the first response to say, “I would oppose policies that fail to advance equal rights in the military,” and suggested “I believe changing the federal definition of ‘marriage’ would unnecessarily detract from efforts to pass a domestic partnership law” as a reply to the second. Barack asked Raja “whether people think it sounds too squirrelly,” and in the end his answer stated, “I support laws recognizing domestic partnerships and providing benefits to domestic partners. However, I do not support legislation to repeal the Defense of Marriage Act.” In the affirmative, Barack emphasized that “universal access to health care is one of my top priorities,” but addressing a question asking “Would you oppose legislation that criminalizes transporting a minor across state lines by anyone other than a parent for the purpose of obtaining an abortion?” Barack e-mailed Raja to say, “I’m still not clear on this. . . . Is this an issue the choice community feels strongly about?” After Krishnamoorthi’s team of policy volunteers weighed in, the final answer was “I would oppose any legislation . . . which fails to include an exception for minors who have been victims of sexual abuse, neglect, or physical abuse by a parent.”
Barack won more Chicagoland news coverage with a press release that generated a September 11 Defender headline touting “Obama’s Security Plan Aims to Stop Terrorists.” Claiming that “our homeland security efforts are flagging because this administration has failed to provide adequate support to the state and local agencies on whom our security depends,” what Barack actually called for was “$3 billion to hire, train, and equip” seventy-five thousand new firefighters, a wonderful gift horse for organized labor.34
With Dan Hynes finally formally declaring his Senate candidacy, Barack’s campaign team refined their “Campaign Prospectus” and “Integrated Strategic Plan” for presentation to donors. “We think 35 percent will win the election” and “fighting for middle class families” will be the central theme. After summarizing Paul Harstad’s highly encouraging July poll results, the prospectus made the campaign’s potential clear: “if Obama has the resources to get on television state-wide, he will win the Democratic primary and go on to win in November.” Harstad outlined a plan for four to six early 2004 tracking polls leading up to March 16, plus a pair of January “focus groups” tilted toward “high income women” to refine the campaign’s message points before television ads were written and produced. Depending on fund-raising success, the campaign’s overall broadcast media budget could range from $2 million up to $3 million.
Raja Krishnamoorthi’s issues and policy team volunteers continued to churn out succinct, high-quality briefing papers for Barack to absorb on topics ranging from “Bush’s Economic Stimulus Plan” to “Health Insurance Coverage Proposals and Costs.” Attorney Andrew Gruber remained a mainstay of Raja’s team, but throughout 2003 Dino Christenson, a young political science Ph.D. who was working for former DNC chairman David Wilhelm, became another invaluable contributor. Barack often e-mailed his policy advisers late at night after returning home from that day’s donor appointments, call time, and evening appearances. One Sunday former UNO organizer Bruce Orenstein and his wife Nancy MacLean hosted a fund-raiser at their Rogers Park home, and the next weekend Barack attended multiple events in Springfield, Champaign, and Decatur. Barack was still resisting a regular driver, but Dan Shomon recruited his friend Andrew Boron, another policy team volunteer, to drive Barack from Champaign back to Chicago. Boron had drafted a position paper on Israel, and during the drive, he told Barack about Harvard law professor Alan Dershowitz’s just-published book, The Case for Israel. Boron was taken aback when Barack “said to me point blank that ‘The problems in the Middle East were caused by the Jewish Americans’ community’s unwillingness,’ or ‘inflexibility,’ I think was the exact word, and I was sort of floored” that Barack had said this.
Randon Gardley, Kaleshia Page, and Liz Drew staffed Barack’s Chicagoland events, but finance director Claire Serdiuk and consultant Joe McLean tried to expand the campaign’s fund-raising efforts to other big U.S. cities where Barack had old friends or new acquaintances. Hasan Chandoo recruited close to a dozen people for a late-September New York event. Hasan, like Rob Fisher, was one of the few old friends whom Barack regularly telephoned, but his enthusiastic support of the war in Iraq had created an awkwardness in their relationship. From New York Barack headed to Washington, joining Congressman Jesse Jackson Jr.’s table at the annual Congressional Black Caucus dinner and attending a fund-raiser at the Kalorama home of former Harvard Law Review colleague Jon Molot. One attendee at Molot’s home remembered that Barack “spoke forever. He went on for an hour,” answering questions interminably. “Barack’s been a law professor too long . . . it really was not good.”35
Barack got far better reviews back in Illinois for several weekend events in Carbondale and a Sunday reception at Raghuveer Nayak’s Oak Brook home. On Monday, September 29, the U of C Law School’s autumn quarter began, with Barack’s Con Law III meeting Monday, Tuesday, and Friday mornings at 8:30 A.M., and his Racism seminar Thursdays from 4:00 to 6:00 P.M. Gery Chico’s struggling campaign launched a $500,000 television advertising campaign featuring four thirty-second ads, which media consultant Eric Adelstein knew was “a high-risk strategy” to increase Chico’s name recognition. A pair of prominent Sunday Chicago Sun-Times stories drew attention to Chico, but none that he welcomed. “Gery Chico and the Firm That Failed” said that “hundreds of employees were left without jobs” when Altheimer & Gray imploded in late June. One former partner blamed “a combination of mismanagement and malfeasance,” and another said, “Chico pretty much abandoned his post.” A sidebar piece titled “Polls Show Scant Support” noted that Chico was drawing only 3 or 4 percent support even though he had been the first Democrat to declare, and “some of Chico’s rivals predict he’ll pull out in the next few months.” With a double-barreled assault like that, Chico’s donations were in danger of declining even further.
Like Eric Adelstein, David Axelrod was thinking about the Obama campaign’s upcoming television ads, and on October 2, he sat down with Barack to film a conversation aimed at producing air-worthy snippets. “I’m not that different from many young African American men who don’t know their fathers,” Barack asserted, “and . . . I think that helped motivate me to get into the kind of work I do.” He spoke to a checklist of his proudest Springfield achievements: KidCare, Illinois’s EITC, and being “the point person for Democrats in the Senate for protecting and preserving civil liberties and civil rights” by “making sure that we have got some sort of privacy and security from government.” Then he turned to health care reform, his signature issue: “We lack the political will to fight the special interests that are preventing significant health care reform. Drug companies are making record profits, insurance companies are making enormous amounts of money . . . we lack the political will to fight back against companies that are driving up these health care costs. . . . If in fact we wanted to provide health care to all citizens, we could do it with the amount of money that we have.” Democrats were part of the problem, because too often “people get elected and then they’re so afraid to lose” that “they’re not willing to fight for the people that sent them there in the first place. Too often Democrats lack the courage of their convictions.”
Regarding the Iraq war, “the price tag on it should have been apparent to anybody who was reading the newspapers. . . . We should have understood that that was going to be a decade-long commitment that was going to cost billions of dollars precisely at a time when we have enormous needs here at home.” Last, Barack turned to religion and Trinity UCC, saying that Jeremiah Wright “
is a wonderful minister and it’s a wonderful congregation. . . . My church life informs me and provides great support not only to me, but to my family.”36
That evening, former U.S. senator and Democratic presidential candidate Bill Bradley publicly endorsed Barack. Raja Krishnamoorthi, who had worked for Bradley, had arranged an introductory meeting a year earlier after telling Bradley that Barack was someone he should meet. “That was the only time I’ve ever known Barack to be on time for a meeting,” Raja recalled. “It went really well,” and “Obama was on cloud nine” afterward. Bradley’s Chicago appearance failed to generate any notable local headlines, but just forty-eight hours later was the campaign’s first televised debate, sponsored by the Illinois NAACP. All six Democrats—Barack, Gery Chico, Blair Hull, Dan Hynes, Nancy Skinner, and Joyce Washington—were joined on stage by five Republicans.
Barack appeared quite subdued even before hearing three references to Osama bin Laden early in the telecast. When Barack’s turn finally came, he stressed that “I was the only candidate who spoke out publicly against this war” because “we had no proof that there was an imminent danger, an imminent threat.” He stated that “we have to support Israel, the only democracy in the Middle East,” while backing “a two-state solution that allows Palestinians their legitimate aspirations.” He called George W. Bush “the most fiscally irresponsible president we have had in the history of our nation,” citing the need to “roll back those Bush tax cuts that go to the wealthiest Americans.” Republican Jack Ryan proclaimed that “the biggest civil rights issue of our generation” is the hundreds of thousands of mainly minority children trapped in “failing schools.” Blair Hull emphasized that “universal health care is a right,” and Nancy Skinner observed that “there could be nothing more unpatriotic than the Patriot Act.” Barack complained that “we don’t have a voice in Washington for working families,” also saying that “we have no African Americans in the U.S. Senate.” He advocated “full federal funding of campaigns in order to take the special interests out,” and in his closing statement he asserted that “manufacturing has vanished from the Illinois landscape.” In his final remarks, Barack said that “our government seems more intent on rebuilding Iraq than rebuilding here at home” and forcefully stressed that “I have a track record of delivering.”
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