Appendices
A. THE BIGGEST WARS IN HISTORY (See p. 37)
Source: Levy, War, table 4.1. I have added together his data for the Thirty Years War, which he subdivided in three. I have also amended his totals for battlefield deaths for the world wars, which were too low. World population figures used in calculating the final column are the lower estimates from the table produced by the US Census Department (www.census.gov/ipc/www/worldhis.html).
B. MULTIPLE REGRESSION OF BRITISH GOVERNMENT POPULARITY AND ECONOMIC INDICATORS (See p. 237)
(a) Adjusted R2, 1951–1964 to 1997–2000
(b) Detailed regression breakdown, 1951–1964 to 1997–2000
Sources: Butler and Butler, British Political Facts; Central Statistical Office, Monthly Digest of Statistics; HMSO, Ministry of Labour Gazette; Central Statistical Office, Retail Prices 1914–1990. Recent data are from the following websites: Bank of England, HM Treasury, statistics.gov.uk, except for the opinion poll data, which are from the Gallup Organization (as published in the Daily Telegraph).
Notes: The indicators used in the analysis are as follows:
Government lead: percentage of respondents who would vote for governing party if an election were held tomorrow less percentage who would vote for principal Opposition party.
RPI: retail price index, percentage change over the previous year. Unemployment figures (defined from January 1971 as the claimant count) are given without seasonal adjustment.
Base rates: Bank of England base rate at end of month.
B statistic: A one-unit rise in the variable correlates with a B per cent increase or decrease in government popularity.
Significance: Y: less than 5 per cent chance that the relationship is random; N: more than 5 per cent chance that the relationship is random.
C. THE GLOBAL BOND MARKET, JUNE 1999 (See p. 282)
Sources: Financial Times, 28 January 2000; Bank for International Settlements, Annual Report 1999, table VII. 4.
D. PUBLIC DEBT BURDENS IN 1887–1888 (See p. 304)
Note: Mexico and Peru were in default, and Austria–Hungary, Russia, Italy, Japan, Argentina and Brazil had depreciated paper currency (‘estimated to entail a 5 per cent burden on these countries’). Turkey’s reduced debt calculated as yielding 1 per cent.
Source: Nash, Fenn’s Compendium, pp. x–xiv.
E. ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL INDICATORS AND THE INTER-WAR CRISIS OF DEMOCRACY, 1919–1938 (See p. 361)
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