The four generals summoned today—Valery Bakhtin, Gennady Titov, Alexi Kanshin, and Pavel Makarov—understood the price of loyalty and were ready to execute Nikolai Gorshkov’s most ambitious plan yet. They rose to attention when the president entered the conference room.
After a short welcome and a rambling prologue on NATO, which they’d heard time and time again, Gorshkov added, “Of course, I welcome dissent,” before signaling for General Bakhtin to comment.
Of course he doesn’t, thought each of the generals.
Bakhtin served as chief of the general staff, having worked his way up from commander of the Baltic tank regiment. The 60-year-old, dark-haired, square-jawed general had benefited the most from Gorshkov’s upper level house cleaning.
“Mr. President,” he began, “the mess in the EU continues to erode cooperation. Financial crises are weighing heavily on weaker member nations. Frustration in the stronger countries grows with the burden of carrying them. We have studied multiple models of what will likely follow. More ruptures in the coalition. Germany, France, and Italy won’t be able to hold it together. If one of them falls out, we can expect the Scandinavian bloc, and in our sphere, a union of the eastern countries based on shared trade, security interests, or root language, to splinter off. Our goal is to not wait for these changes to transpire, but to hasten them.”
The general tugged at his jacket, commanding more attention. “Our first steps will cause a stir and cry, but little else. NATO will protest, but with no will to act.”
“The United States still talks war,” Deputy Minister of Defense General Titov noted.
“Yes, but conservative American leaders have walked back willingness to defend its allies in Europe and Asia. This actually has Japan more fearful than some of their European allies. It all plays well for us.”
General Bakhtin opened a file. “According to a Stanford University analysis, the cost of maintaining US troops in Japan is only about 10 percent more than keeping them in Texas.” He closed the file. “That’s just one example and on a larger scale, it’s really not about money. Americans increasingly feel they’re being taking advantage of by foreign obligations. So, the prevailing mood is get rid of outdated treaties, especially when they seem meaningless to their lives. That means opportunity for us.”
President Nikolai Gorshkov couldn’t have put it better himself.
LONDON
THE KENSINGTON ROYAL TOWERS
After reviewing the file Boyce had sent over, an excited Reilly placed a call to Heath, who was still at work. He explained what he had been doing and the conclusions, still unsubstantiated, that he had come to.
“NATO,” Reilly said.
“Not possible,” Heath replied, waiting to be convinced.
“I’m telling you it’s all about NATO.”
“How, where, when?”
“I don’t know. But you tell me whether NATO will enforce or wiggle out of its Article 5 Common Defense commitments if there’s an attack on a NATO partner country.”
Heath hesitated.
“My point exactly. And what about England and Germany? Did they move a muscle when France sought an authorization of Article 5 after the Paris attacks?”
“No,” Heath admitted.
MOSCOW
“The EU has contributed to its own demise,” Bakhtin argued. “It was sheer lunacy for them to ever think that our patriotism and national will could be reduced to a forgotten memory. Sheer lunacy to delegitimize nation states with hundreds of years of cultural differences. The very idea denied history itself.”
Gorshkov nodded. This was just the conversation he wanted.
“And so,” he continued, “a generation now exists in Europe that has little or no sense of national identity. Who there would answer the call for a war to defend borders when no true borders remain? Back to your notion about America talking war, General Tito.”
The minister of defense tipped his head signifying he was in accord.
“Congress couldn’t come together with Obama over his war authorization against ISIS,” Bakhtin added. “They have no appetite for another war they can’t win, a war that would quickly escalate if they entered. Who wants that? Certainly not the American people. Not even their president.”
Titov nodded his agreement.
“Great Britain?” Gorshkov scowled.
“They’ll step aside,” Bakhtin stated. “They’re against engagement. The EU’s foreign minister is a Labor Party appointee to the House of Lords. She earned her stripes in the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament. Their focus was on disarmament over defense, which firmly put them against engagement.”
Gorshkov laughed. “Yes, yes, yes. The Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament was our special operation, founded in 1957 with the goal of making England indefensible.”
LONDON
“Reagan took NATO seriously,” Reilly told Heath over the phone from his hotel room. “And, in those days, the Kremlin believed that if they tried to seize other European nations, the penalty would have been a world war. But those days are over. It feels like NATO is from another era. And unlike Soviet Russia, today’s Kremlin doubts that we have the stomach to fight for Europe.”
“You might be right,” Heath admitted.
“And no matter what official statements come out of NATO, the member nations also would find ways to avoid committing their young men and women to defend a border change that to them would only mean changes in the faces on foreign currency.
MOSCOW
“The growing separatist movement is succeeding, Mr. President,” General Alexi Kanshin, head of the Western Military District located in St. Petersburg, stated. “Infusing Russian as a required national language throughout the region was one of the Soviet Union’s smartest decisions. That single act instilled a passionate sense of loyalty to Moscow among the separatists. When called to protect and defend them, such as in Crimea, we will be acting on behalf of beleaguered, isolated friends. Justified and authorized. In my mind,” Kanshin added, “we could move on multiple fronts. Moldova’s Transnistria region is an easy get. Bordered on Ukraine, it offers—”
Gorshkov slyly smiled as he interrupted him. “Be patient, my general,” he said. He followed it with a sharp rebuke. “And don’t ever presume you have permission to tell me what to do.”
LONDON
Reilly continued his phone conversation with Heath. “A land invasion would be quick,” he predicted. “According to my old Harvard prof, one or two days.”
“Too quick for us to act with or without authorization. And the risk—”
Reilly completed the sentence, “of nuclear war would be too great.”
“There’s another geopolitical consideration,” Heath added, coming around to the same conclusion. “In the global economy, European young people freely move for school, for work, for marriages. And they don’t necessarily return home. Mass migration across Europe’s old boundaries has killed the appetite among military-age citizens of any need to defend what used to be their homeland. Hell, in another decade there might not be many people left who even want to hold office in some of those border nations.”
MOSCOW
“There are troops,” warned a more contrite General Alexi Kanshin. “And some émigrés might come back to fight.”
“They lack the training and the desire,” General Bakhtin argued. “To return and die without a fervent patriotic calling would be pointless. They have their lives and families to think about, not a glorious death for their motherland. They have none of the need to protect their natural resources as we do. No desire to spill their own blood in the name of an antiquated notion of cultural history. They gave that up when they sold their identity to the European Union. But to your point about troops, General Kanshin. Yes, they have them. But they are no match to the forces under your command and those of General Makarov’s Central Military District.”
LONDON
“What about our defenses in Europe?” Reilly asked Heath.
; “Decades after the Berlin Wall fell, we figured what’s the point of stationing 60,000 troops in Europe when most EU nations still don’t make a substantial commitment of manpower and money themselves. So, despite the fiery rhetoric every four years in the presidential debates, our military capacity in Europe is little more than a placeholder.”
A paper tiger, thought Reilly. That doesn’t scare Gorshkov.
MOSCOW
General Makarov, commander of Russia’s forces in Crimea and, as a result, the nation’s most practiced military strategist, spoke next.
“America’s war is with terrorism, not Russia. That’s where they have committed their resources. Ukraine demonstrated that Americans won’t commit their armed forces to Eastern Europe. We will have no opposition to speak of.”
LONDON
“Okay, my friend, here’s where I’m going with all this, and then I need to end this call,” Reilly stated.
“Ready.”
“Gorshkov is threatened by NATO and relying on our reluctance to get involved. He’s planning on retaking one or more of Russia’s former satellites.”
“You better be wrong,” Heath replied.
“Stay with me. He’ll use a provocation to strike. A provocation of his invention. There will be an incident, the last in a series of unspeakable crimes against Russians or Russian loyalists. Incidents that they, in fact, are behind.” Reilly went through his internet search again. “This will be the impetus for Gorshkov to come to the defense of one or more nations where a significant percentage of the population closely aligns with Russia.”
“You really think so?” Heath asked.
“I do, and so should you.”
MOSCOW
“Specifics now,” Gorshkov stated. “At worst, what will be our target’s response?”
Without hesitating, General Valery Bakhtin handed Gorshkov a document.
“Mr. President,” the general read from a top sheet, “they have 13,000 national frontline forces. Active reserves, 11,000. Adequate, but not formidable. The Parliament abolished conscription in 2006. Those who volunteer are assigned to the home guard and the reserve.”
“Equipment?” the president asked unemotionally.
“Tanks, zero. Multiple launch rocket systems, zero. SPGs, self-propelled guns, zero. There are 250 armored fighting vehicles, 20 towed artillery. Airpower, both fixed-wing and rotary from all branches of service, four fighters. Total Naval strength, eleven coastal defense crafts and six mine ships. They also bought three TPS-77 transportable Multi-Role Radars, which bring their defense capabilities up, but only marginally.”
“Marginally?” the president asked. “Define marginally.”
“It gives them a chance to act, sir, but they have little to act with. They recently increased military spending from 1.4 percent of their GDP to 2 percent, the absolute minimum NATO has mandated. But given their current economic problems, it’s unlikely they’ll make the number. Of course Germany could offer 54 of its stored Leopard 2A6 tanks, but it wouldn’t be in time. France could send interceptors, but late.”
“What about the resolve of the people, those not loyal to Russia?” Gorshkov asked.
“The answer is embedded in the debate they’ve had since the fall of Communism. It comes down to patriotism vs. nationalism,” General Titov explained. “Patriotism makes them stronger as a people. It defines their set of values. Before the internet and social media it actually meant something. But hundreds of thousands have gone to other countries to work. Patriotism loses to nationalism, the set of values that provided security to the people after the Nazis. The leadership that protected them. The pipelines that delivered oil. The wires that gave them electricity. For them, nationalism is Russia.”
“And the practical reality,” Bakhtin added, “they know they’ll have to bring the fight to General Makarov’s forces across the border. They’ll have to scuttle our fleet equipped with missiles. That’s not going to happen.”
“But do they believe we would strike?” Gorshkov shot back. “Not a guess. Your professional judgment.”
General Bakhtin responded without a moment’s hesitation. “As with other NATO nations, like Romania, they rate an actual invasion at 0.01 percent. To put it another way, the government is content to believe by 99.9 percent that Russia will not invade.”
“Then bring your troops to full readiness,” the president commanded. “The time is nearly here.”
69
LONDON, ENGLAND
THE KENSINGTON ROYAL LONDON TOWERS
After ending his call with Heath, Reilly was suddenly aware he wasn’t alone in his hotel suite living room. Marnie was watching him.
“How long have you been there?” he asked.
The question took Marnie by surprise. “That sounds awfully accusatory.”
Reilly stared at her. Marnie closed her open bathrobe and tied the belt.
“How long?” he repeated.
“What the hell’s your problem?”
“Ty kto?”
“What?” she replied.
“Ty kto?” he repeated in Russian.
Marnie pursed her lips and furrowed her brow.
“Who am I?” she answered in English. “What the hell are you asking? And why in Russian? I’m the woman you’ve been sleeping with.” She pulled her belt tighter. “And I don’t like what you’re suggesting one bit. Why don’t you just come out and say what’s on your mind. Ti chyertovski moodak!”
“You’re fluent,” Reilly sharply replied.
“Damned straight. And your accent sucks,” she said. “Maybe you should have studied with my professors at Oxford.”
Reilly lowered his eyes and shook his head.
“School?”
“Yes. Want to hear my Mandarin, too?” she asked.
“I’m sorry. But—”
“I’m in international banking for God’s sake. You actually thought I was, what? A Mata Hari?”
Reilly half laughed. “Well, seeing you in both Tehran and Moscow? You knowing so much about me. I guess I questioned how much of a coincidence it was. And then your Russian at the Kremlin.”
“Ti chyertovski moodak!” she repeated with disgust.
“What’s that mean?”
“Oh, you know how to ask ‘Who am I,’ but you don’t know the expression ‘You’re a fucking asshole?’” She turned to leave. “And you want to do business in Russia?” she said over her shoulder. “Forget what you were thinking. What was I thinking? Forget everything!”
Reilly crossed the room and took her arm. “I’m sorry. I’m really sorry.”
“Fuck you,” she said with her back to him.
“I deserved that.”
“You sure do.”
He reached out, turned Marnie around, and quietly added, “I’m sorry.”
“You should be!” she exclaimed. “Just tell me why? What’s going on with you?”
Reilly took a long deep breath, reaching for some part of the truth.
“A combination of everything. The deals, which we shouldn’t talk about and …” He stopped short.
“And what?”
Reilly suddenly wondered if her question was more probing than caring. He couldn’t tell.
“Oh, this whirlwind trip I’ve been on. It’s exhausting. And the personalities. Trying to get people on board with some new concepts.”
“Like?”
Probing or caring? He still wasn’t sure.
“Corporate policies.”
He let the answer settle, hoping it would be enough.
“There’s a lot happening,” he continued. “I suppose I need help. I’m questioning everything, and I’m short on answers.” He paused. “I shouldn’t have questioned you.”
“You sure shouldn’t.”
“I’m sorry,” he quietly offered.
Marnie looked away. Reilly stepped up to her and put his arms around her.
“What are you doing?”
“Getting close.”
“Th
en ask,” she said.
“May I?”
“I don’t know.”
“Please.”
“Yes.”
After holding her for a few moments he nudged her chin up and moved forward to kiss her.
“Ask,” she repeated.
“May I?”
“Yes.”
As their lips met he reached down and slowly undid her robe.
“May I?” he whispered.
“Yes,” she replied softly. “But I still say ti chyertovski moodak!”
Reilly slipped the robe off her shoulders and backed Marnie into the bedroom.
Da. Yes, he thought in Russian, having decided he would have the agency look into her past. Da.
Brenda warned Reilly that Shaw would be calling him from Chicago. She didn’t know that it would involve most of the major management team.
“Sorry to blindside you, Dan,” the company president began. “But I’ve got Lou, Chris, Pat, June, and Alan on with me.”
Reilly figured that Alan Cannon had pushed for the conference call and wanted the CFO and heads of legal and marketing in his corner.
“I want to understand the problem better,” Shaw said. “Alan is in favor of shutting the Diplomat down. You’re not.”
“That’s correct, sir.”
“Care to defend your position?”
Reilly hated the way his boss phrased his question. But he believed he had the best argument for keeping the Brussels’ property open.
“Yes I would.”
Reilly explained his recommendation, logically and unemotionally. He hit the points a devoted company man would, with the added perspective of a man committed to righting a terrible wrong. A man on a mission.
RED Hotel Page 38
