The Road to Ruin

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The Road to Ruin Page 35

by James Rickards


  On March 1, 2016, Admiral Michael S. Rogers: Laura Hautala, “We’re Fighting an Invisible War—in Cyberspace,” CNET, March 5, 2016, accessed August 9, 2016, www.cnet.com/news/were-fighting-an-invisible-war-in-cyberspace/.

  SELECTED SOURCES

  ARTICLES

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  Henriksson, Roy D., and Robert C. Merton. “On Market Timing and Investment Performance. II. Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills.” The Journal of Business, Vol. 54, No. 4, October 1981.

  Lorenz, Edward N. “Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow.” Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 20, January 7, 1963.

  Merton, Robert C. “On Market Timing and Investment Performance. I. An Equilibrium Theory of Value for Market Forecasts.” Journal of Business, Vol. 54, No. 3, July 1981.

  Rickards, James. Studies in Intelligence, Vol. 50, No. 3, September 2006. Journal of the American Intelligence Professional, Central Intelligence Agency, CLASSIFIED EDITION.

  Whitehead, Lorne A. “Domino ‘Chain Reaction’.” American Journal of Physics, Vol. 51, No. 2, February 1983.

  BOOKS

  Ahamed, Liaquat. Lords of Finance: The Bankers Who Broke the World. New York: Penguin, 2009.

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  Alpert, Daniel. The Age of Oversupply: Overcoming the Greatest Challenge to the Global Economy. New York: Portfolio/Penguin, 2013.

  Ariely, Dan. Irrationally Yours: On Missing Socks, Pickup Lines and Other Existential Puzzles. New York: Harper Perennial, 2015.

  Bak, Per. How Nature Works: The Science of Self-Organized Criticality. New York: Copernicus, 1999.

  Balko, Radley. Rise of the Warrior Cop: The Militarization of America’s Police Forces. New York: PublicAffairs, 2013.

  Bernanke, Ben S. Essays on the Great Depression. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2000.

  Böhm-Bawerk, Eugen von. The Positive Theory of Capital. Translated by William Smart. New York: G. E. Stechert & Co., 1930.

  Bruner, Robert F., and Sean D. Carr. The Panic of 1907: Lessons Learned from the Market’s Perfect Storm. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2007.

  Calomiris, Charles W., and Stephen H. Haber. Fragile by Design: The Political Origins of Banking Crises and Scarce Credit. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2014.

  Casti, John. X-Events: The Collapse of Everything. New York: William Morrow, 2012.

  Chumley, Cheryl K. Police State U.S.A.: How Orwell’s Nightmare Is Becoming Our Reality. Washington, DC: WND Books, 2014.

  Cline, Eric H. 1177 B.C.: The Year Civilization Collapsed. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2014.

  Conway, Ed. The Summit, Bretton Woods 1944: J. M. Keynes and the Reshaping of the Global Economy. New York: Pegasus Books LLC, 2014.

  Dam, Kenneth W. The Rules of the Game: Reform and Evolution in the International Monetary System. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1982.

  DiMicco, Dan. American Made: Why Making Things Will Return Us to Greatness. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2015.

  Eichengreen, Barry. Golden Fetters: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression, 1919–1939. New York: Oxford University Press, 1995.

  ———. Hall of Mirrors: The Great Depression, the Great Recession, and the Uses—and Misuses—of History. New York: Oxford University Press, 2015.

  Eliot, T. S. The Waste Land. New York: W. W. Norton & Company, Inc., 2000.

  Fleming, Ian. Thunderball. Las Vegas: Thomas & Mercer, 2012.

  Fletcher, Ian. Free Trade Doesn’t Work: What Should Replace It and Why. Sheffield, MA: Coalition for a Prosperous America, 2011.

  Freeland, Chrystia. Plutocrats: The Rise of the New Global Super-Rich and the Fall of Everyone Else. New York: Penguin Press, 2012.

  Friedman, Allan, and P. W. Singer. Cybersecurity and Cyberwar: What Everyone Needs to Know. New York: Oxford University Press, 2014.

  Friedman, Milton, and Anna Jacobson Schwartz. A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1993.

  Friedman, Thomas L. The World Is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-first Century. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2005.

  Gardner, Dan, and Philip E. Tetlock. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. New York: Crown, 2015.

  Gilder, George. The Scandal of Money: Why Wall Street Recovers but the Economy Never Does. Washington, DC: Regnery, 2016.

  Goldberg, Jonah. Liberal Fascism: The Secret History of the American Left from Mussolini to the Politics of Meaning. New York: Doubleday, 2008.

  Grant, James. The Forgotten Depression: 1921: The Crash That Cured Itself. New York: Simon & Schuster, 2014.

  Hayek, F. A. The Fortunes of Liberalism: Essays on Austrian Economics and the Ideal of Freedom. Indianapolis: Liberty Fund, 1992.

  ———. Good Money Part I: The New World. Indianapolis: Liberty Fund, 1999.

  ———. Good Money Part II: The Standard. Indianapolis: Liberty Fund, 1999.

  Hudson, Michael. Killing the Host: How Financial Parasites and Debt Destroy the Global Economy. Bergenfield, NJ: ISLET, 2015.

  Hudson, Richard L., and Benoit Mandelbrot. The (Mis)behavior of Markets: A Fractal View of Risk, Ruin, and Reward. New York: Basic Books, 2004.

  Hui, Pak Ming, Paul Jefferies, and Neil F. Johnson. Financial Market Complexity: What Physics Can Tell Us About Market Behavior. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2003.

  Jensen, Henrik Jeldtoft. Self-Organized Criticality: Emergent Complex Behavior in Physical and Biological Systems. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1998.

  Joffe, Josef. The Myth of America’s Decline: Politics, Economics, and a Half Century of False Prophecies. New York: Liveright, 2015.

  Johnson, Neil. Simply Complexity: A Clear Guide to Complexity Theory. London: Oneworld, 2012.

  Kahneman, Daniel. Thinking, Fast and Slow. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2011.

  Keynes, John Maynard. The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money. New York: Harvest/Harcourt Inc., 1964.

  ———. Monetary Reform. New York: Harcourt, Brace and Company, 1924.

  Kindleberger, Charles P. The World in Depression 1929–1939. Berkeley: University of California Press, 1986.

  King, Mervyn. The End of Alchemy: Money, Banking, and the Future of the Global Economy. New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 2016.

  Kissinger, Henry. World Order. New York: Penguin Press, 2014.

  Klein, Naomi. The Shock Doctrine: The Rise of Disaster Capitalism. New York: Picador, 2007.

  Kuhn, Thomas S. The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1996.

  Lenin, V. I. Imperialism: The Highest Stage of Capitalism. Mansfield Center, CT: Martino Publishing, 2011.

  Lindsay, Lawrence B. Conspiracies of the Ruling Class: How to Break Their Grip Forever. New York: Simon & Schuster, 2016.

  Lowenstein, Roger. When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management. New York: Random House, 2000.

  Makin, John H. The Global Debt Crisis: America’s Growing Involvement. New York: Basic Books, 1984.

  Mandelbrot, Benoit B. The Fractal Geometry of Nature. New York: W. H. Freeman and Company, 1983.

  Martin, Felix. Money: The Unauthorized Biography. New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 2014.

  Marx, Karl. Selected Writings. Edited by David McLellan. New York: Oxford University Press, 1977.

  McGrayne, Sharon Bertsch. The Theory That Would Not Die: How Bayes’ Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy. (New Haven, CT: Yale
University Press, 2011).

  Mian, Atif, and Amir Sufi. House of Debt: How They (and You) Caused the Great Recession, and How We Can Prevent It from Happening Again. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2014.

  Milanovic, Branko. Global Inequality: A New Approach for the Age of Globalization. Cambridge, MA: Belknap Press, 2016.

  Miller, John H., and Scott E. Page. Complex Adaptive Systems: An Introduction to Computational Models of Social Life. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2007.

  Minsky, Hyman P. Stabilizing an Unstable Economy. New York: McGraw Hill, 2008.

  Mitchell, Melanie. Complexity: A Guided Tour. New York: Oxford University Press, 2011.

  Murray, Charles. In Our Hands: A Plan to Replace the Welfare State. Washington, DC: AEI Press, 2016.

  Noah, Timothy. The Great Divergence: America’s Growing Inequality Crisis and What We Can Do About It. New York: Bloomsbury Press, 2012.

  Palley, Thomas I. From Financial Crisis to Stagnation: The Destruction of Shared Prosperity and the Role of Economics, 1st edition. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2012.

  Piketty, Thomas. Capital in the Twenty-First Century. Cambridge, MA: Belknap Press, 2014.

  Popper, Karl R. The Open Society and Its Enemies: Volume 1, The Spell of Plato. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press: 1971.

  ———. The Open Society and Its Enemies: Volume 2, The High Tide of Prophecy: Hegel, Marx, and the Aftermath. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1971.

  Rappleye, Charles. Herbert Hoover in the White House: The Ordeal of the Presidency. New York: Simon & Schuster, 2016.

  Reinhart, Carmen M., and Kenneth S. Rogoff. This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2009.

  Ricardo, David. The Principles of Political Economy and Taxation. Mineola, NY: Dover Publications, 2004.

  Rickards, James. Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis. New York: Portfolio/Penguin, 2011.

  ———. The Death of Money: The Coming Collapse of the International Monetary System. New York: Portfolio/Penguin, 2014.

  Roberts, Richard. Saving the City: The Great Financial Crisis of 1914. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2013.

  Rodrik, Dani. Economics Rules: The Rights and Wrongs of the Dismal Science. New York: W. W. Norton & Company, Inc., 2015.

  Rogoff, Kenneth S. The Curse of Cash. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2016.

  Schelling, Thomas C. Micromotives and Macrobehavior. New York: W. W. Norton & Company, Inc., 2006.

  Schumpeter, Joseph A. Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy. New York: Harper Perennial, 2008.

  ———. Ten Great Economists: From Marx to Keynes. New York: Galaxy Books, 1965.

  Shlaes, Amity. The Forgotten Man: A New History of the Great Depression. New York: Harper Perennial, 2007.

  Silber, William L. When Washington Shut Down Wall Street: The Great Financial Crisis of 1914 and the Origins of America’s Monetary Supremacy. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2007.

  Silverglate, Harvey A. Three Felonies a Day: How the Feds Target the Innocent. New York: Encounter Books, 2011.

  Somary, Felix. The Raven of Zurich: The Memoirs of Felix Somary. New York: St. Martin’s Press, 1986.

  Sorkin, Andrew Ross. Too Big to Fail. New York: Penguin Books, 2010.

  Spiro, David E. The Hidden Hand of American Hegemony: Petrodollar Recycling and International Markets. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1999.

  Steil, Benn. The Battle of Bretton Woods: John Maynard Keynes, Harry Dexter White, and the Making of a New World Order. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2013.

  Surowiecki, James. The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economics, Societies, and Nations. New York: Anchor Books, 2005.

  Taibbi, Matt. The Divide: American Injustice in the Age of the Wealth Gap. New York: Spiegel & Grau, 2014.

  Taylor, Frederick. The Downfall of Money: Germany’s Hyperinflation and the Destruction of the Middle Class. New York: Bloomsbury Press, 2013.

  Temin, Peter. Lessons from the Great Depression. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1991.

  ———, and David Vines. The Leaderless Economy: Why the World Economic System Fell Apart and How to Fix It. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2013.

  Tett, Gillian. Fool’s Gold: The Inside Story of J. P. Morgan and How Wall St. Greed Corrupted Its Bold Dream and Created a Financial Catastrophe. New York: Free Press, 2009.

  Tuohy, Brian. Disaster Government: National Emergencies, Continuity of Government and You. Kenosha, WI: Mofo Press LLC, 2013.

  Turner, Adair. Between Debt and the Devil: Money, Credit, and Fixing Global Finance. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2016.

  Viera, Edwin Jr. Pieces of Eight: The Monetary Powers and Disabilities of the United States Constitution, Second Revised Edition, Volume I and Volume II. Chicago: R. R. Donnelley & Sons, Inc./GoldMoney Foundation, 2011.

  Vonnegut, Kurt. Cat’s Cradle. New York: Dial Press, 2010.

  Waldrop, M. Mitchell. Complexity: The Emerging Science at the Edge of Order and Chaos. New York: Simon & Schuster, 1992.

  Wallas, Graham. Human Nature in Politics. Middletown, CT: The Perfect Library, reprint, 1920.

  Zeihan, Peter. The Accidental Superpower: The Next Generation of American Preeminence and the Coming Global Disorder. New York: Twelve, 2014.

  INDEX

  The page numbers in this index refer to the printed version of this book. The link provided will take you to the beginning of that print page. You may need to scroll forward from that location to find the corresponding reference on your e-reader.

  absolute advantage, 211–12, 213

  Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, 163–64

  adaptation, 12, 108–17

  agents

  autonomous, attributes of, 11–12

  in complex systems, 11, 107–9

  Agostini, Dale, 252

  AIG, 8, 19, 120, 140–41, 145, 202

  Akerlof, George, 178

  Alwaleed bin Talal, Prince, 137

  Amaranth, 162

  America in decline debate, 291–96, 298–301

  angel investing, 285

  anticrowds, 110–11

  Apple Inc., 217–18, 219, 254, 262

  arbitrage, 287–88

  Ariely, Dan, 210

  Aristotle, 152–53

  art, investing in, 282–83, 284–85

  Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, 280

  Asian-Russian financial crisis of 1997–98, 44, 45, 132–33, 174

  asset bubbles, 181, 228

  asset forfeitures, 251–53

  asset swaps, 179

  ATM withdrawals, 33

  Austrian economics, 6, 14

  automatic stay, 31–32

  autonomous agents, attributes of, 11–12

  Bagehot, Walter, 14, 234

  bail-ins, 25–26

  Bair, Sheila, 153

  Baker, James, 67, 221–22, 277–78

  balance of power, 82–83

  Balkan Crisis, 1912, 204

  Balko, Radley, 246–47

  Bank for International Settlements (BIS), 47, 48, 65, 156, 187, 278–79

  bank notes, 59

  Bank of America, 30, 130, 264

  Bank of Cyprus, 25

  Bank of Japan, 30

  Bank of New York Mellon, 19, 29

  Bank of United States, 39

  Bank One, 30–31

  banks, 262–63

  balance sheet of, 8

  capital requirements for, 31, 155–56

  consolidation of, 30–31

  deregulation of, 153–56

  fractional reserve banking and, 59

 
G-SIFI list and, 18–19

  leverage allowed, 155–56

  negative interest rates charged by, 29–30

  “Banks Urge Clients to Take Cash Elsewhere” (Wall Street Journal, The), 29

  Barclays Global Investors, 16, 17

  Barnum, P. T., 290

  Baruch, Bernard, 257

  Basel I, 156

  Basel II, 156

  Basic Guaranteed Income, 238

  Battle of Bretton Woods, The (Steil), 41

  Bayes, Thomas, 12

  Bayesian statistics (causal inference), 3, 9–10, 12–13, 184–85

  capital markets, application to, 99–105

  Shanghai Accord and, 101–5

  Bayes theorem, 3, 12, 99–100, 184

  Bear Stearns, 30–31, 129–30, 139, 141–42, 155, 159–60, 164

  behavioral psychology, 4, 9–11

  belief systems, 8

  Belize, 78

  Belkin, Michael, 287

  bell-curve (normal distribution) system, 210–11

  Bentham, Jeremy, 14

  BEPS (Base Erosion and Profit Shifting) enforcement plan, 75–78

  Beria, Lavrentiy, 231

  Berkshire Hathaway, 110

  Berlin Wall, fall of, 36

  Bernanke, Ben, 19, 50, 153, 168, 170, 177

  deflation, response to, 228

  failure to see risk and understand market collapse in 2007 of, 160

  on Faust’s role at Federal Reserve, 178

  Great Depression as frame of reference for, 185, 186

  on incoherence of international monetary system, 278

  on value of quantitative easing, 182

  zero interest rate policy of, 180–81

  Bilderberg Group, 56, 57

  Bismarck, Otto von, 261

  Black, Fischer, 208

  Black Asphalt Electronic Network & Notification System, 252–53

  Black Monday (stock market crash of 1987), 4, 24, 151, 174

  BlackRock, 16–17, 19–23, 32, 48, 265

  Black Swan, The (Taleb), 288

  black swan event, 148

  Bloomberg, 137

  Bloomberg, Michael, 58

  BNP Paribas, 160

  Böhm-Bawerk, Eugen von, 234

  bonds, investing in, 285

  Bonfire of the Vanities (Wolfe), 126

 

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