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Notes
Chapter 1: Introduction
1. Hitchcock, p. 70.
2. Sherwood, p. 80; author’s translation.
3. Hufton, pp. 62–3.
4. Woolf, pp. 57–8.
5. Zweig, pp. 25–6.
Chapter 2: The Weight of Numbers
1. Potter (ed.), p. 564; Livi-Bacci, Concise History of World Population, p. 25.
2. Livi-Bacci, Population of Europe, p. 120.
3. English, pp. 38–9.
4. Neillands, p. 212.
5. Harvey, War of Wars, p. 885.
6. Keegan, First World War, pp. 379, 402.
7. Jackson and Howe, p. 21; Mahdi, pp. 208–9.
8. Bashford and Chaplin, p. 51.
9. Reinhard, pp. 78, 129, author’s translations; Jackson and Howe, pp. 22, 81.
10. Urdal.
11. Jackson and Howe, p. 22.
12. Jacques, p. 36.
13. Inevitably we are forced to confront the words ‘modern’, ‘modernity’ and ‘modernisation’. These words will be unavoidably–and liberally–used throughout this book. Much has been written on the theory of modernisation and there has been considerable debate around these terms and what they mean, if anything. Quite simply, for our purposes, ‘modernisation’ means movement towards and ‘modernity’ arrival at three characteristics of societies which are not specifically demographic: first, urbanisation (most people living in towns, however defined); second, literacy and education (most people being able to read and write and ultimately a very high share of the population being educated at tertiary level, i.e. in university or college); and third, industrialisation or post-industrialisation (a large part of the economy consisting of non-agricultural activity and the bulk of the population employed in factories and offices rather than in fields). With this last element comes a high level of energy use per person, usually derived from coal, oil, gas or, more recently, hydro-power, nuclear power or increasingly solar power, rather than human, animal and primitive water and wind power of earlier eras. The demographic features generally associated with these features of a ‘modern’ society thus defined are: a fall in and then a low level of infant mortality (say, from one in five or more babies not making it to their first birthday to as few as three in a thousand); an extension of life expectancy–itself in part the result of falling infant mortality rates (from around thirty years at birth to sixty, seventy or more); and a fall in fertility rates (from six or more children per woman to three or fewer). Societies have not moved in the direction of ‘modernity’ thus defined in a consistent or uniform pattern, and certainly not at the same time. In some cases, urbanisation might have run ahead of industrialisation or industrialisation ahead of education; in other cases all three non-demographic changes might lead or lag behind the demographic change. Nevertheless, this is clearly the direction of travel for country after country, society after society, since the United Kingdom commenced its journey along this path around the year 1800. To da
te, in most cases, that direction of travel has been in one direction and reversals minor or temporary.
14. UN Social Indicators, UN Population Division 2017 Revisions.
15. The Economist, 15–21 April 2017, pp. 25–6.
16. Marshall and Gurr, p. 1.
17. Morland, Democratic Engineering, pp. 1–26.
18. For a full treatment of why demography has become increasingly important as industrialisation, modernisation and democratisation have spread, see ibid., pp. 9–21.
19. Ibid.
20. Ibid.; Bookman, p. 61.
21. Fearon and Laitin.
22. Note that the data for England and Wales is different from the data for the whole of the UK, the former including around 90% of the population of the latter.
23. For a discussion of the problems of determining the size of the population of England in the Middle Ages, which gives a good general sense of the issues involved, see Goldberg, pp. 71–83.
Chapter 3: The Triumph of the Anglo-Saxons
1. Wilson, p. 787.
2. Wrigley, pp. 348–9.
3. Malthus, p. 51. Malthus’s thought developed with each version of his essay and he came increasingly to the view that, with restraint and later marriage, as observed in Western Europe, a society could avoid extreme misery. For an account of the development of Malthus’s thought and a discussion of whether Malthus was a Malthusian, see Wrigley, pp. 216–24.
4. The concept and timing of the industrial revolution is itself controversial and complex. Wrigley, pp. 64–5 describes the decisive discontinuity as essentially a move from using the organic product of recent photosynthesis for the basic needs of food, fuel, shelter and clothing (e.g. eating the current year’s crops, burning wood at most a few hundred years old) to being able to tap into millions of years of accumulated power from photosynthesis, initially through mass production and the use of coal. He therefore distinguishes sharply between what happened in Britain at the end of the eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries from earlier developments in e.g. the Netherlands.
5. Carey, pp. 46, 120, 12.
6. Macfarlane, pp. 144–53, 303–4.
7. Tranter, p. 53.
8. Morland, Demographic Engineering, p. 7.
9. Wrigley et al., pp. 134, 355.
10. For the extent to which fertility in early years of potential marriage outstrip those of later years, see ibid., p. 411.
11. This is not uncontroversial; some have suggested that England’s early nineteenth-century population growth was fuelled more by falling mortality than rising fertility rates. See ibid., pp. 431–8.
12. Wrigley et al., p. 295.
13. Macfarlane, pp. 110, 184, 192–3.
14. Pomeranz, p. 276.
15. But see 11 above.
16. United Nations Population Division, 2017 Revisions.
17. Woods et al., p. 35; however, note distinction between endogenous and exogenous infant mortality in Wrigley, pp. 321–4.
18. Wrigley.
19. Ibid., pp. 431–2.
20. Maddison, pp. 160, 169–70, 180.
21. Connell, p. 25.
22. Charlwood, p. 58.
23. Townsend, p. 271.
24. Brett, pp. 67, 120.
25. Maddison, pp. 160, 169–70, 180.
26. Braudel, p. 437.
27. Charlwood, pp. 66–7.
28. Snyder, p. 158.
29. Canadian Encyclopedia, vol. 1, p. 595, vol. 3, p. 1453; UN Committee of International Coordination of National Research in Demography, World Population Year 1974, p. 59; Kalbach and McVey, p. 195; Livi-Bacci, Concise History of World Population, p. 61.
30. Wilkinson, p. 244.
31. Ibid., pp. 220, 224, 242, 247; Borrie, p. 55.
32. UN World Population Year 1974, pp. 9, 13, 51, 53.
33. Thompson, p. 53.
34. Beinart, p. 353.
35. Osterhammel, p. 448.
36. Merk, p. 189; Osterhammel, p. 331.
37. De Tocqueville, p. 371.
38. Genovese, p. 45.
39. Wilkinson, p. 150; Klein, p. 131; Thompson and Whelpton, p. 294.
40. Seeley, p. 12.
41. Thomas, p. 114.
Chapter 4: The German and Russian Challenges
1. Andrillon, pp. 70–8, author’s translation.
2. Paddock, pp. 66, 74, 87.
3. Lieven, p. 60.
4. McLaren, p. 11.
5. Iliffe, p. 21.
6. Wood and Suitters, p. 91.
7. McLaren, p. 96.
8. Ibid., p. 128.
9. Ibid., p. 119.
10. Mullen and Munson, p. 79.
11. Armstrong, p. 195.
12. Lipman, p. 45; author’s private conversation with the late Professor David Cesarani.
13. Anderson, ‘Population Change’, p. 211; Maddison, pp. 182–3.
14. Ibid.
15. Luce, loc. 1848.
16. Livi-Bacci, A Concise History, pp. 136, 132–3, 135; Woycke, p. 3.
17. Woycke, pp. 2–3.
18. Gaidar, p. 259.
19. Livi-Bacci, A Concise History, p. 132; Maddison, pp. 182–3.
20. Livi-Bacci, A Concise History, p. 132.
21. Figes, p. 160.
22. Foner, p. 31.
23. Tooze, loc. 4483–8.
24. McLaren, p. 11.
25. Ibid., p. 149.
26. Garrett et al., p. 5.
27. Wood and Suitters, pp. 157–8.
28. Soloway, pp. 22–4; National Birth-Rate Commission, pp. 36–8.
29. The Lancet, 10 November 1906, pp. 1290–1.
30. Soloway, p. 5.
31. Reich, pp. 120–2.
32. Quinlan, p. 11.
33. Andrillon, pp. 70–8, author’s translation.
34. Okie, p. 15.
35. Paddock, p. 66.
36. Woycke, p. 133.
37. Ibid., p. 134.
38. Paddock, pp. 66, 74, 87; Lieven, p. 60.
39. Stolper, p. 24.
40. Osterhammel, p. 364.
41. Schierbrand, p. 95; Gatrell, Government, Industry, pp. 175, 255.
42. Figes, p. 298.
43. Winter, p. 249; Livi-Bacci, Population of Europe, p. 132.
44. Urdal.
Chapter 5: The Passing of the ‘Great Race’
1. Hitler, pp. 28, 38, 74, 93, 207, 261.
2. Winter, p. 259.
3. Johnson, pp. 174–5.
4. Davies, p. 113.
5. Livi-Bacci, Population of Europe, p. 165.
6. Using Livi-Bacci, Population of Europe, pp. 132–3, we see that for the period 1800–1913, Britain’s population never grew faster than an average of 1.33% per annum. For Germany’s peak period, it was slightly higher, at 1.38%. For Russia it was 1.47%. Britain’s birth rate did not exceed 40 per thousand while Germany’s did, and Russia’s exceeded 50. Again using Livi-Bacci (pp. 168, 166), we find that between the early 1920s and late 1940s England’s fertility fell by a fifth of a child, Germany’s fell by over half a child, and Russia’s fell by around three children. In 1920–50 life expectancy rose by twelve years in the UK, fourteen years in Germany, and nearly twenty-five years in the Soviet Union.
7. Mouton, pp. 109–10.
8. Livi-Bacci, Population of Europe, pp. 136, 168; Kirk, pp. 14, 48.
9. Kirk, pp. 48–9.
10. Ehrman, p. 42.
11. Livi-Bacci, Population of Europe, pp. 135, 166.
12. Gerstle; Gratton.
13. Kirk, pp. 75–6.
14. Ibid., pp. 279–80.
15. Ibid., pp. 282–3.
16. Ehrman, pp. 33–4.
17. McCleary, Menace of British Depopulation, p. 18.
18. Kirk, p. 42.
19. Maddison, pp. 182–4.
20. Morland, Demographic Engineering, pp. 143–4.
21. Gerstle, pp. 105–6.
22. Grant, p. 263.
23. Ibid., p. 167.
24. Ibid., p. 220.
25. Guardian, 1 May 2014, ht
tps://www.theguardian.com/books/2014/may/01/f-scott-fitzgerald-stories-uncensored-sexual-innuendo-drug.
26. East, p. 113.
27. Ibid., p. 115.
28. Ibid., pp. 116, 271.
29. Ibid., p. 128.
30. Ibid., p. 145.
31. Cox, p. 77.
32. Offer, p. 172.
33. McCleary, Menace of British Depopulation, p. 63.
34. Dennery, p. 229.
35. Wilson, pp. 174, 228.
36. ‘Sydney’.
37. Haggard, pp. 170–2.
38. McCleary, Menace of British Depopulation, p. 59.
39. Haggard, pp. 170, 185.
40. Ibid., p. 185.
41. McCleary, Menace of British Depopulation, pp. 49, 52.
42. Money, pp. 83, 159.
43. Bertillon; Boverat, p. 16.
44. Leroy-Beaulieu.
45. Kirk, pp. 282–3; Camisciole.
46. Morland, Demographic Engineering.
47. Cossart, pp. 57–77.
48. Camisciole, p. 27.
49. Reggiani.
50. Goldman, p. 7.
51. Ibid., p. 254.
52. Ibid., pp. 254–5.
53. Ibid., pp. 7, 256, 258, 289.
54. Ibid., p. 333.
55. Livi-Bacci, Population of Europe, p. 175.
56. Ibid., pp. 132–4, 165, 166, 168; Kirk, p. 279.
57. Sigmund, p. 25 (author’s translation).
58. Kirk, pp. 102, 111; Mouton, pp. 170–1, 224.
59. Mouton, pp. 15, 17.
60. Stone, p. 145.
61. Maddison, pp. 182–5; Livi-Bacci, Population of Europe, p. 132.
62. De Tocqueville, pp. 399, 433.
Chapter 6: The West since 1945
1. The Times, 11 March 1964, p. 12.
2. Easterlin.
3. Macunovich, p. 64.
4. Easterlin, pp. 10–12.
5. Macunovich, pp. 1–2.
6. Croker, p. 2.
7. Derived from Maddison 1982, p. 185.
8. Croker, p. 2.
9. Easterlin, pp. 27–30.
10. E.g. Willetts.
11. Djerassi, p. 11.
12. UN Population Division, 2015 Revisions; Macunovich, p. 118.
13. French, p. 47.
14. Westoff, p. 1.
15. Ibid., p. 25.
16. Ibid.
17. Kaufmann, Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?, pp. 94–5.
18. UN Population Division, 2015 Revisions.
