Seeking Wisdom

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Seeking Wisdom Page 13

by Peter Bevelin


  '1 don't like him because he is egoistic, defensive, always complains and has a bad temper."

  We don't learn from people we don't like and we don't want to be associated with them. The people we don't like are the ones we perceive as dissimilar to us, people we are in competition with, those we perceive as threatening, or people that are self-absorbed, complaining, greedy, etc. We tend to dislike people who have been dehumanized - for example, people who have been described as evil or animals.

  Keep in mind

  • Concentrate on the issue and what you want to achieve.

  • Don't depend on the encouragement or criticism of others. Marcus Aurelius Antoninus said: "How much time he gains who does not look to see what his neighbor says or does or thinks."

  • Don't automatically mistake people's appearance for reality. It may be a social mask.

  • Social approval is an effective way to make people behave correctly. Why do people avoid certain actions? Because they are afraid of the social punishment these actions may cause.

  • Benjamin Franklin wrote: "Love your enemies, for they tell you your faults."

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  Francois Due de la Rochefoucauld adds: "Our enemies' opinion of us comes closer to the truth than our own."

  SOCIAL PROOF

  If 40 million people say a foolish thing, it does not become a wise one.

  Somerset Maugham (British novelist, 1874-1965)

  "But everybody else is doing it."

  Do you rely on others for advice and actions? Most people do. In True Believer, American philosopher Eric Hoffer wrote, "When people are free to do as they please, they usually imitate each other." We are social animals, influenced by what we see other people doing and believing. We believe that others know more than we do.

  We want what others want. Since everybody else wants it, we assume there has to be a reason. We avoid what others avoid. We imitate without thinking. Especially when many or similar people do it, when we are uncertain, in an unfamiliar environment, in a crowd, lack knowledge, or if we suffer from stress or low self esteem.

  Sellers of fashion, books, movies, etc., know that if enough people like something, others will eventually follow. We trust testimonials from people that we see as similar to us.

  Warren Buffett says: ''As happens in Wall Street all too often, what the wise do in

  the beginning, fools do in the end." He tells an instructive story:

  This friend, who ran a property-casualty insurer, was explaining to his directors why he wanted to acquire a certain life insurance company. After droning rather unpersuasively through the economics and strategic rationale for the acquisition, he abruptly abandoned the script. With an impish look, he simply said: "Aw, fellas, all the other kids have one."

  '1 don't understand why they don't listen to me," said the CEO ofTransCorp. When we are uncertain, we are most likely to follow what people similar to us do. The CEO would therefore be more likely to have his message heard ifhe used a spokesperson who already supported the CEO's ideas and who the audience saw as similar to themselves, such as a colleague.

  john's stockbroker recommends the same stock as other brokers. When john asked him why, he replied '1'd rather be wrong in a group than right by myself"

  We feel more comfortable as part of a majority. It acts as a protection from criticism. If we are wrong and everybody else is too, we get less blame. To quote

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  J.M. Keynes: "Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally." Warren Buffett adds:

  Most managers have very little incentive to make the intelligent-but-with-some-chance of-looking-like-an-idiot decision. Their personal gain/loss ratio is all too obvious: if an unconventional decision works out well, they get a pat on the back and, if it works out poorly, they get a pink slip. (Failing conventionally is the route to go; as a group, lemmings may have a rotten image, but no individual lemming has ever received bad press.)

  john invested in an exclusive oil project since a group of sophisticated, wealthy investors were involved. They promised that he would quadruple his money in one year. A year later, he'd lost it all.

  Former chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Arthur Levitt, Jr. says, "If you are dumb enough to invest based on a lavatory wall, you deserve to lose money."

  In the early 1900s, Italian immigrant Charles Ponzi, took investors for $10 million by promising 40% returns on International Postal Reply Coupons. What he didn't tell newer investors was that their money was being used to pay off earlier investors. In the end, the house of cards collapsed.

  In the Foundation for New Era Philanthropy, some of the U.S.'s leading charities and donors believed they could double their money in six months. New Era used contributions from one group to pay off another - until there was no money left. New Era was a $350 million Ponzi Scheme. Charles Munger says, "Grown-up people actually believed that there was a tooth fairy out there that would double their money in six months provided they agreed to give it to charity."

  Blindly following the lead of others can have dangerous consequences.

  "Oh my God, he stabbed me. Please help me!"

  We have a tendency to not act in situations where we are uncertain if there is danger and when we don't feel individual responsibility. Also when we want to avoid embarrassment and when we're among strangers. The more people, the more reduced we see our own responsibility.

  Just after 3 a.m., March 13, 1964 in New York City, Catherine Genovese, a 28-year old woman, was stabbed to death as she returned from her job. 38 people witnessed at least one of her killer's three attacks from the safety of their apartment windows for 25 minutes without calling the police..

  Why didn't the neighbors help? Were they indifferent? Frightened? Why should they be afraid of calling the police from the safety of their own homes? A

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  pair of psychology professors found the answer. No one had helped just because thirty-eight witnesses were present. A bystander to an emergency is unlikely to help when there are other people around. Why? They saw two reasons for this.

  First, we must interpret an event as an emergency. When we are uncertain, we have a tendency to look at people around us to see how they react. If others don't react, we interpret that as evidence that it is not an emergency, and we therefore don't react. We don't want to be the ones that stand out in a crowd and risk embarrassment for acting in a non-emergency situation. But here comes the problem. If each person reasons the same way, everyone draws the same conclusion. "Since nobody is concerned, nothing is wrong. It can't bean emergency." This is called pluralistic ignorance.

  The second reason is called diffusion of responsibility. The more people there are, the less personal responsibility we feel. We often rationalize by saying, "Someone else probably called the police. "If we all think that way, no one will help. The more people we see around us, the less likely we are to help. We can't force people to help. If we punish people for not helping in an emergency, we will only create an incentive for people to avoid the punishment by not getting involved.

  This will cause them to interpret a situation as a non-emergency.

  So, how should we act if we are involved in an accident in a public place and need help? We should be specific. "You there, in the blue shirt. This is an emergency. Please help me!"

  The board members ofTransCorp were asked if they had any questions. They looked around at the other members. All appeared confident. '/1m I the only one confased?" wondered John and kept quiet.

  "Since no one disagrees, my idea seems to have everyone's support,"the CEO said.

  If we believe that we are the only one who doesn't understand, we may keep quiet. Speaking up may lead to embarrassment. Group pressure may contribute to our silence.

  Sometimes mutual friendship and loyalty override our motivation to seek alternative courses of action. This type of group thinking has been found to be a factor in many historical
events including the Bay of Pigs invasion, the Vietnam War and Pearl Harbor.

  In the late economist Peter F. Drucker's The Effective Executive, the former

  chairman of General Motors, Alfred P. Sloan, Jr., is reported to have said at the dosing of a management meeting: "Gentlemen, I take it we are all in complete agreement on the decision here". Everyone around the table nodded assent. "Then," continued Mr. Sloan, "I propose we postpone further discussion of this

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  matter to give ourselves time to develop disagreement and perhaps gain some understanding of what the decision is all about."

  John attended a meeting where an investment proposal promising a 200% return was presented All 30 people present at the meeting invested and all lost money.

  How could 30 smart individuals be fooled? Some basic math would have told them that the project was doomed to fail. Each individual automatically assumed that the other 29 individuals present at the meeting had evaluated the proposal. If there was something bad, someone else would have said so. "And since they invest, I invest." It turned out that no one had taken the time to read through the proposal.

  "I flattered them and made them feel special. I gave them purpose and hope, and they ate out of my hand "

  In a group we are easily seduced because of our need for social acceptance. The French social psychologist Gustave Le Bon said in The Crowd, "The masses have never thirsted after truth. They turn aside from evidence that is not to their taste, preferring to deify error, if error seduce them. Whoever can supply them with illusions is easily their master; whoever attempts to destroy their illusions is always their victim."

  German-Swiss philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche said: "Madness is a rare thing in individuals - but in groups, parties, peoples, and ages it is the rule." In a group, we feel anonymous, which reduces our feelings of responsibility. We can't be blamed. This can lead to overconfident, risky behavior. We may also become impulsive and destructive. Especially in situations of severe stress. Benjamin Franklin said: "A mob has heads enough but no brains."

  Imitation, obedience to authority, and the fear of being different are forces that drive crowds. Groups don't encourage differences of opinion. If a member of the group disagrees, he may be seen as disloyal. Unanimity is better than independent thought. Individuals in the group reinforce each other into believing that they collectively are right. They focus on favorable consequences and ignore the downside.

  Is the tendency for imitating the group so strong it can make people commit collective suicide?

  In 1978, 913 followers of the cult leader Jim Jones and his People's Temple organization died during a mass suicide and murder in a place called Jonestown in Guyana, South America. Among the dead: more than 270 children. Why?

  The People's Temple started in San Francisco and moved to Guyana in 1977.

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  Armed guards surrounded the settlement in Jonestown, food was scarce, and the members of the cult were forced to work long hours and follow strict codes of behavior. Cult leader Jim Jones committed his followers one step at a time. He controlled the information, the rewards, and the punishment. In 1978, an American congressman and three others went on a fact-finding mission to Jonestown and were murdered. Jim Jones thought that he would be implicated in the killings and that the isolation ofJonestown would result in the end of the cult. So he gathered the community to participate in an act of mass suicide by drinking a fruit drink mixed with poison.

  Psychology Professor Robert Cialdini writes:

  His Uones] masterstroke was the decision to move the People's Temple community from its roots in urban San Francisco to the remoteness of equatorial South America, where the conditions of uncertainty and exclusive similarity would make the principle of social proof operate for him as perhaps nowhere else.

  Cialdini continues: "In a country like Guyana, there were no similar others for a Jonestown resident but the people of Jonestown itself."

  Keep in mind

  The 19th Century American poet Ralph Waldo Emerson said: "It is easy in the world to live after the world's opinion; it is easy in solitude to live after our own; but the great man is he who in the midst of the crowd keeps with perfect sweetness the independence of solitude." What is popular is not always right. If you don't like what other people are doing, don't do it. Warren Buffett says: "We derive no comfort because important people, vocal people, or great numbers of people agree with us. Nor do we derive comfort if they don't."

  Disregard what others are doing and think for yourself. Ask: Does this make sense? Remember the advice from Benjamin Graham, the dean of financial analysis:

  Have the courage of your knowledge and experience. If you have formed a conclusion from the facts and if you know your judgment is sound, act on it - even though others may hesitate or differ. (You are neither right nor wrong because the crowd disagrees with you. You are right because your data and reasoning are right.)

  A lot of our children's personality traits and habits are shaped outside the home. Children learn from their friends what is acceptable or not so make sure

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  the right "peer group" surrounds them.

  When part of a group, remember that the participants may have different goals, information, and interpretations. Seek out alternative points ofview and encourage people to openly disagree. Appoint someone in the group to question things and point out risks and pitfalls. Use ballots to reduce the risk of social pressure.

  Make people responsible for their actions. Remember though, when all are accountable, no one is accountable.

  AUTHORITY

  In questions of science, the authority ofa thousand is not worth the humble reasoning of a single individual

  Galileo Galilei (Italian astronomer and physicist, 1564-1642)

  After the break-in at john's office, he said: "Of course, I believed he was a security guard, since he had a uniform. "

  We tend to obey an authority, especially when we are uncertain, supervised, or when people around us are doing the same. We are most easily influenced by credible authorities, those we see as both knowledgeable and trustworthy.

  '1 read it in the New England journal of Medicine, so it must be correct. "

  Names and reputation influence us. And symbols of power or status like titles, possessions, rank, uniforms, or a nice suit and tie. For example, in one study 22 hospital nurses got a telephone call from an unknown physician and were ordered to administer an obvious overdose of an unauthorized drug. All but one nurse obeyed.

  Another example is when advertisers use famous people to endorse their products. But being famous doesn't give people special expertise.

  "The more I didn't understand, the more I believed the expert. "

  Experts are sometimes more convincing when we don't understand them. Sometimes we are too impressed by something that sounds clever. For example, some people buy into investments just because they don't understand them. They assume it must be something unique. As Warren Buffett says, "Techniques shrouded in mystery clearly have value to the purveyor of investment advice. After all, what witch doctor has ever achieved fame and fortune by simply advising 'Take two aspirins'?"

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  '1 was only following orders. "

  Blind obedience is sometimes a way to rationalize dumb actions.

  '1 believed he was making a mistake, but Ididn't dare tell him. After all, heis the expert. " A study involving airline pilots cited conflict avoidance as a contributing factor to crashes. Officers are reluctant to disagree with the authority of pilots. For example, in a crash of a DC-8 in 1978, the flight engineer told the captain that they were running out of fuel. The captain dismissed the warning and the plane crashed.

  In 1997, a female police officer in Scotland was assigned to a murder investigation. Forensic investigators later found her thumbprint in the house where the murder victim was found. But the woman insisted, under oath, she had never been inside the house. Four experts from the Scottish Criminal Record Off
ice said that the print was hers. She was suspended and accused of perjury. Subsequent events showed that the fingerprint was neither hers nor from a thumb, but from a forefinger. Thus, experts make mistakes.

  Authority is so powerful that we may cause pain to other people to comply. The British novelist and scientist Charles Percy Snow said in The Two Cultures and the Scientific Revolution: "When you think of the long and gloomy history of man, you will find more hideous crimes have been committed in the name of obedience than have ever been committed in the name of rebellion."

  In one experiment at Yale University, Psychology Professor Stanley Milgram tricked people by posing as an authority and caused normal people to impose what they had every reason to believe was intense pain to other people. The participants in the experiment were instructed to shock another person if they answered a question wrong. No real pain was delivered during the experiment. But it showed that when we are given orders from what we believe to be a legitimate authority, we obey even if the result is that we end up hurting others. In later studies Milgram showed that obedience was maximized by first observing peers obey but dramatically reduced when peers rebelled, or when the victim acted like a masochist asking to be shocked. Milgram said in Obedience to Authority: "It is psychologically easy to ignore responsibility when one is only an immediate link in a chain of evil action."

 

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