93. Moltz, Politics of Space Security, 287; Moltz, Asia’s Space Race, 95–96; Johnson-Freese, Space as a Strategic Asset, 229; Sheehan, International Politics of Space, 167–68; Leonard David, “US–China Cooperation in Space: Is It Possible, and What’s in Store?” Space.com, June 16, 2015, www.space.com/29671-china-nasa-space-station-cooperation.html (accessed May 2, 2017).
94. International Astronomical Union, “IAU’s Reaction to the Executive Order Banning Access from Seven Countries,” announcement, Jan. 30, 2017, www.iau.org/news/announcements/detail/ann17006/; Royal Astronomical Society, “RAS Responds to the US Executive Order Banning Entry from Seven Countries,” news release, Jan. 31, 2017, www.ras.org.uk/news-and-press/2947-ras-response-to-the-us-executive-order-banning-entry-from-seven-countries; Multisociety Letter on Immigration, Feb. 10, 2017, mcmprodaaas.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/Multisociety%20Letter%20on%20Immigration%201-31-2017.pdf?utm_medium=email&dm_i=1ZJN,4QUK6,E29DOV,HT01N,1; William J. Broad, “Top Scientists Urge Trump to Abide by Iran Nuclear Deal,” New York Times, Jan. 2, 2017, and static01.nyt.com/packages/pdf/science/03ScientistsLetter.pdf; “March for Science,” satellites.marchforscience.com; Becky Crystal, “These Washington Restaurants Are Closed for the ‘Day Without Immigrants’ Protest,” Washington Post, Feb. 16, 2017. (All accessed May 2, 2017.)
95. Alicia Parlapiano and Gregor Aisch, “Who Wins and Loses in Trump’s Proposed Budget,” New York Times, updated Mar. 16, 2017; Will Thomas, “White House Requesting Immediate $3 Billion Cut to R & D Budgets,” American Institute of Physics: FYI Bulletin 40, Mar. 29, 2017; American Institute of Physics, “Congress Stands by Science in Final Budget Deal,” FYI Bulletin 53, May 2, 2017; Will Thomas, “Final FY17 Appropriations: NASA,” FYI Bulletin 56, May 5, 2017; Associated Press, “Federal Budget Deal Would Spare Arts Agencies,” May 1, 2017. Actual 2017 figures are 0.9% president’s requested cut; 1.9% increase for NASA overall; 3.1% increase for NASA Science; 5.2% increase for ARPA-E. NEH and NEA each got a 1.3% increase; CPB’s funding remained the same as 2016. For 2018 figures, see William Thomas, “Final FY18 Appropriations: Department of Defense,” FYI Bull. 40, Apr. 5, 2018. See also the American Institute of Physics’ continually updated “Federal Science Budget Tracker,” www.aip.org/fyi/federal-science-budget-tracker.
9. A TIME TO HEAL
1. Lewis Mumford, “No: ‘A Symbolic Act of War . . . ,’ ” New York Times, July 21, 1969, query.nytimes.com/mem/archive/pdf?res=9804E3DB1738E63ABC4951DFB1668382679EDE (accessed May 5, 2017); “Reactions to Man’s Landing on the Moon Show Broad Variations in Opinions. Some Would Forge Ahead in Space, Others Would Turn to Earth’s Affairs,” New York Times, July 21, 1969, 6–7, timesmachine.nytimes.com/timesmachine/1969/07/21/issue.html (accessed Sept. 18, 2017).
2. See generally Daron Acemoglu, Mikhail Golosov, Aleh Tsyvinski, and Pierre Yared, “A Dynamic Theory of Resource Wars,” Quarterly J. of Economics (2012), 283–331, economics.mit.edu/files/8041 (accessed Oct. 9, 2017). For recently diminishing supplies of another natural resource, see David Owen, “The End of Sand,” New Yorker, May 29, 2017, 28–33.
3. Government Accountability Office, Rare Earth Materials: Developing a Comprehensive Approach Could Help DOD Better Manage National Security Risks in the Supply Chain, GAO-16-161, Feb. 2016, www.gao.gov/assets/680/675165.pdf; Lee Simmons, “Rare-Earth Market,” Foreign Policy, July 12, 2016, foreignpolicy.com/2016/07/12/decoder-rare-earth-market-tech-defense-clean-energy-china-trade; Lisa Margonelli, “Clean Energy’s Dirty Little Secret,” The Atlantic, May 2009, www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2009/05/clean-energys-dirty-little-secret/307377; Julie Butters, “This Is Dysprosium—If We Run Out of It, Say Goodbye to Smartphones, MRI Scans and Hybrid Cars,” Phys.org, June 6, 2016, phys.org/news/2016-06-dyprosiumif-goodbye-smartphones-mri-scans.html (accessed Apr. 2, 2017).
4. Aluminum constitutes about 8 percent of Earth’s crust and is the third most abundant element found there. On the light side of all metals, it has about the same density as quartz. So, along with the silicate rocks, it floated to the top. Never solo on Earth, it is always found combined with other elements, such as oxygen or potassium.
5. Europlanet, “Nanosat Fleet Proposed for Voyage to 300 Asteroids,” press release, Sept. 19, 2017, www.europlanet-eu.org/nanosat-fleet-proposed-to-300-asteroids (accessed Sept. 19, 2017).
6. Tony Judt, Reappraisals: Reflections on the Forgotten Twentieth Century (New York: Penguin, 2008), 5–7.
7. “Text: Obama’s Speech to the United Nations General Assembly,” New York Times, Sept. 23, 2009. See, in this context, Joan Johnson-Freese, Heavenly Ambitions: America’s Quest to Dominate Space (Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press, 2009): “Our flawed approach to space is the product not of any single source of dysfunction, but a swamplike mixture of partisan politics, bureaucratic gamesmanship, the traditional pressures of the military-industrial complex, and an unfortunate and blissful ignorance on the part of the American public. Worse, this ignorance is wedded to a kind of American exceptionalism that drives Americans—the conquerors of the Moon—to believe that they have an almost inherent right to declare space as their own, the reaction of the rest of the world be damned” (xi–xii).
8. The Paris Agreement was adopted by consensus in December 2015. On April 1, 2016, the presidents of China and the United States issued a joint statement saying that both countries would sign it. The agreement opened for signature on April 22, 2016; 175 nation-states including the European Union signed it that same day. The agreement came into effect seven months later. As of January 2018, of the 197 parties that have signed or otherwise accepted its provisions, 174 parties have ratified it, including the United States. In June 2017, President Trump stated his intention to withdraw the United States from the agreement. A withdrawal would have to be done within the provisions of international law; a presidential declaration does not constitute withdrawal. (Re the 197 parties: As a body, the United Nations has 193 member states and two “observer” states, Palestine and the Holy See. The other parties to the agreement are two island nations that are not UN member states, Niue and the Cook Islands. The European Union is counted as a member state.) See United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, “The Paris Agreement,” unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9485.php (accessed Jan. 23, 2018).
9. National Nuclear Security Administration, “70 Years of Computing at Los Alamos National Laboratory,” www.lanl.gov/asc/_assets/docs/history-computing.pdf; Los Alamos National Laboratory, “Los Alamos’ Trinity Supercomputer Lands on Two Top-10 Lists,” news release, Nov. 16, 2017, www.lanl.gov/discover/news-release-archive/2017/November/1116-trinity-supercomputer.php (accessed Jan. 25, 2018).
10. National Nuclear Security Administration, “About Us,” nnsa.energy.gov/ (accessed Jan. 25, 2018).
11. SAO/NASA Abstract Service, a digital library portal for researchers in astronomy and physics, operated by the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory under a grant from NASA, adsabs.harvard.edu/basic_search.html.
12. Bill Maher, “New Rules” segment, Real Time with Bill Maher, HBO, season 7, episode 7, Apr. 3, 2009.
13. Commission to Assess United States National Security Space Management and Organization, “Executive Summary,” Report—Pursuant to Public Law 106-65, Jan. 11, 2001, 8, fas.org/spp/military/commission/executive_summary.pdf (accessed Sept. 20, 2017).
14. Scott A. Weston, “Examining Space Warfare: Scenarios, Risks, and US Policy Implications,” Air & Space Power J. 23:1 (Spring 2009), 75–77.
15. Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense, “Space Domain Mission Assurance: A Resilience Taxonomy,” white paper, Sept. 2015, 1, fas.org/man/eprint/resilience.pdf (accessed May 5, 2017).
16. Sec. 1616, “Organization and Management of National Security Space Activities of the Department of Defense,” S. 293 (114th): National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal 2017, Dec. 13, 2016 (passed Congress/enrolled bill), www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/114/s2943/text (accessed May 4, 2017).
17. Commission to Ass
ess US National Security Space Management, Report, 17, 13, 33.
18. One notable threat from President Trump, delivered during a news conference at a golf club, was that “North Korea best not make any more threats to the United States. They will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen” (Peter Baker and Choe Sang-hun, “Trump Threatens ‘Fire and Fury’ Against North Korea If It Endangers U.S.,” New York Times, Aug. 8, 2017). Another, delivered the following month from the podium at the UN General Assembly: “No nation on Earth has an interest in seeing this band of criminals arm itself with nuclear weapons and missiles. The United States has great strength and patience, but if it is forced to defend itself or its allies, we will have no choice but to totally destroy North Korea. Rocket Man is on a suicide mission for himself and for his regime” (Peter Baker and Rick Gladstone, “With Combative Style and Epithets, Trump Takes America First to the U.N.,” New York Times, Sept. 19, 2017).
19. Li Bin, “The Consequences of a Space War,” conference paper, Pugwash Workshop on Preserving the Non-Weaponization of Space, Castellon de la Plana, Spain, May 22–24, 2003, www.pugwash.org/reports/nw/space2003-bin.htm (link disabled).
20. Referring to Trump’s truculence in early October 2017, for instance, Senator Bob Corker (R–TN), chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, who had declared he was not running for reelection, said to a reporter, “[W]e could be heading towards World War III with the kinds of comments that he’s making.” See “Read Excerpts From Senator Bob Corker’s Interview With The Times,” New York Times, Oct. 9, 2017.
21. Johnson-Freese, Heavenly Ambitions, 25.
22. A sampling of such statements: An Air Force Space Command master plan describes its long-term strategy as “fielding and deploying space and missile combat forces in depth, allowing us to take the fight to any adversary in, from, and through space, on-demand. . . . The result will be a space combat command that is organized, trained, and equipped to rapidly achieve decisive results on or above the battlefield, anywhere, anytime” (Strategic Master Plan FY06 and Beyond, Oct. 1, 2003, 11, www.wslfweb.org/docs/Final%2006%20SMP--Signed!v1.pdf). Another Air Force plan concurs: “A key objective for transformation, therefore, is not only to ensure the U.S. ability to exploit space for military purposes, but also as required to deny an adversary’s ability to do so” (HQ USAF/XPXC, The U.S. Air Force Transformation Flight Plan 2004, July 1, 2004, C-10, www.hsdl.org/?view&did=454273). ISR being indispensable to these goals, the 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review speaks of the need “to establish an ‘unblinking eye’ over the battle-space through persistent surveillance” so as to “support operations against any target, day or night, in any weather, and in denied or contested areas” (US Department of Defense, Quadrennial Defense Review Report, Feb. 6, 2006, 55, archive.defense.gov/pubs/pdfs/QDR20060203.pdf). A national security report from the White House describes one of DoD’s main thrusts as dealing with “[d]isruptive challenges from state and non-state actors who employ technologies and capabilities (such as biotechnology, cyber and space operations, or directed energy weapons) in new ways to counter military advantages the United States currently enjoys” (President of the United States, The National Security Strategy of the United States of America, Mar. 2006, 44, www.state.gov/documents/organization/64884.pdf). (All accessed May 12, 2017.)
23. Two examples from 2016: General James E. Cartwright (USMC, ret.): “The days of ‘space dominance’ are over and we need to move from thinking of space as a military domain of offense and defense to a more complex environment that needs to be managed by a wide range of international players” (foreword to Theresa Hitchens and Joan Johnson-Freese, “Toward a New National Security Space Strategy: Time for a Strategic Rebalancing,” Atlantic Council Strategy Paper 5, June 2016, i); General John E. Hyten (formerly Commander, USAFSPC): “Space is no longer a sanctuary where the United States or our allies and partners operate with impunity” (Hyten, “Space Mission Force: Developing Space Warfighters for Tomorrow,” white paper, US Air Force Space Command, June 29, 2016, 2, www.afspc.af.mil/Portals/3/documents/White%20Paper%20-%20Space%20Mission%20Force/AFSPC%20SMF%20White%20Paper%20-%20FINAL%20-%20AFSPC%20CC%20Approved%20on%20June%2029.pdf?ver=2016-07-19-095254-887 (accessed May 8, 2017). Hitchens and Johnson-Freese contend, however, that in response to recent Chinese and Russian tests of maneuverable satellites and the 2013 launch of a Chinese rocket that nearly reached geostationary orbit, “Defense against counterspace capabilities has taken on a top priority, followed by, in order, a diminished view of space diplomacy, and an increased interest in offensive capabilities. In particular, the increased threat perception was accompanied by more aggressive public diplomacy by the Pentagon and US Air Force, aimed at making it very clear that the United States would respond to threats in space with the use of force—with rhetoric slipping back toward the ‘dominance and control’ motif of the Bush administration’s space policy” (3).
24. Brian Weeden, “Alternatives to a Space Weapons Treaty,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Apr. 17, 2009, thebulletin.org/alternatives-space-weapons-treaty; European Union: External Action, “International Space Code of Conduct—Version Mar. 31, 2014, Draft,” eeas.europa.eu/topics/disarmament-non-proliferation-and-arms-export-control/14715_en (accessed May 7, 2017). Organizations focusing on de-escalation in space include, for instance, the Eisenhower Center for Space and Defense Studies, the European Institute for Security Studies, the Federation of American Scientists, GlobalSecurity.org, the Institute of Air and Space Law, the National Security Archive, the Planetary Society, Project Ploughshares, the Secure World Foundation, the Space Policy Institute, the Stimson Center, the Union of Concerned Scientists, and the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research.
25. Henry R. Hertzfeld, Brian Weeden, and Christopher D. Johnson, “Outer Space: Ungoverned or Lacking Effective Governance?: New Approaches to Managing Human Activities in Space,” SAIS Review of International Affairs 36:2 (Summer–Fall 2016), 15–28; Hitchens and Johnson-Freese, “New National Security Space Strategy”; Weeden, “Alternatives to a Space Weapons Treaty”; “Executive Summary,” in Space Security Index 2016, ed. Jessica West (Waterloo, ON: Project Ploughshares, Sept. 2016), 1.
26. “HST Publication Statistics,” Feb. 25, 2017, archive.stsci.edu/hst/bibliography/pubstat.html (accessed Sept. 21, 2017).
27. Arthur S. Eddington (1920), quoted in S. Chandrasekhar, foreword to Eddington, The Internal Constitution of the Stars (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1926/1988), x.
28. Eddington, Internal Constitution, 301.
29. William A. Fowler, “Formation of the Elements,” Scientific Monthly 84: 2 (Feb. 1957), 98.
30. Jonathan M. Weisgall, “The Nuclear Nomads of Bikini,” Foreign Policy 39 (Summer 1980), 83.
31. E. Margaret Burbidge, G. R. Burbidge, William A. Fowler, and F. Hoyle, “Synthesis of the Elements in Stars,” Reviews of Modern Physics 29:4 (Oct. 1957), 547–650. The US Atomic Energy Commission was a precursor agency to the US Department of Energy.
32. Burbidge et al., “Synthesis,” 640. The “r-process” refers to free neutrons that march straight into an atomic nucleus and stay there. With their neutral charge, they face no electromagnetic resistance at all. That configuration of particles in the nucleus might be unstable. But in an r-process element, a second neutron enters before the nucleus has a chance to decay, creating a stable nucleus.
33. The authors are grateful to economists Mark Harrison of the University of Warwick (editor of The Economics of World War II: Six Great Powers in International Comparison [Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1998] and co-editor, with Stephen Broadberry, of The Economics of World War I [Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2005]) and Linda Bilmes of the Harvard Kennedy School (co-author, with Joseph Stiglitz, of The Three-Trillion Dollar War: The True Cost of the Iraq Conflict [New York: W. W. Norton, 2008]) for their generosity in helping to clarify the extreme difficulty of calculating the comprehensive costs of war.
34. $3 b
illion is a high ballpark figure; comprehensive figures are not available. In 2016 NASA’s astrophysics budget was $1.35 billion (Astrophysics: $730 million; James Webb Telescope: $620 million). The 2016 budget for the National Science Foundation’s Division of Astronomical Sciences was $250 million, including research, education, and facilities. The 2016 budget for the European Space Agency’s entire Scientific Programme was $510 million. The India Space Research Organisation budgeted $47 million for space sciences in 2016. About 14 percent, or $180 million, of the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency budget has been going to space science and exploration, which suggests a space-science portion on the order of $100 million; additional space-science funding is part of JAXA’s commitment to the International Space Station. See American Institute of Physics, “Federal Science Budget Tracker,” FYI: Science Policy News, www.aip.org/fyi/federal-science-budget-tracker/FY2017; National Science Foundation, Directorate for Mathematical and Physical Sciences: Division of Astronomical Sciences (AST), “AST Funding,” FY2016 Budget Request to Congress, MPS-12, www.nsf.gov/about/budget/fy2016/pdf/fy2016budget.pdf; European Space Agency, “ESA 2016 Budget by Domain,” www.esa.int/spaceinimages/Images/2016/01/ESA_budget_2016_by_domain; Space Foundation, “Exhibits 1s. Indian Space Budgets,” “Exhibit 1t. Japanese Space Spending by Agency 2016,” The Space Report 2017, 12–13; “FY2015 Annual Budget [JAXA],” reproduced in Chu Ishida, “JAXA Program for Earth Observation Satellites,” Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, Jan. 6, 2016, n.p., www.pco-prime.com/vegetation_lidar2016/pdf/1-3Ishida_JAXA_EO_program_20160106.pdf (accessed Sept. 24, 2017).
Accessory to War Page 63
