by Sonia Shah
31 Niiler, “Awash in Oil.”
32 Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2003 (Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Energy, May 2003), p. 37.
33 Colin Campbell, letter to the author, May 1, 2003.
34 Kenneth S. Deffeyes, letter to the author, May 1, 2003.
35 Colin J. Campbell, “The Fuel That Fires Political Hotspots,” Times Higher Education Supplement, May 17, 2002.
36 Jean Laherrere, “Forecasting Future Production from Past Discovery” (presentation, OPEC seminar, “OPEC and the Global Energy Balance: Toward a Sustainable Energy Future,” Vienna, Austria, September 28-29, 2001).
37 Deffeyes, Hubbert’s Peak, p. 191, note 8.
38 Jean Laherrere, “Hydrocarbons Resources: Forecast of Oil and Gas Supply to 2050” (presentation, Petrotech, New Delhi, India, January 10, 2003).
39 Deffeyes, Hubbert’s Peak, p. 7.
40 Total transportation sector petroleum consumption is about 13 million barrels/ day or 4.7 billion barrels/year. Defense department fuel use is approximately 1.8 percent of the country’s total transportation fuel. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2001 (Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Energy, November 2002), Table 5.12c, p. 152; Elizabeth G. Book, “Pentagon Needs Accurate Accounting of Fuel,” National Defense (March 2002), p. 36.
41 Defense Science Board Task Force on Improving Fuel Efficiency of Weapons Platforms, More Capable Warfighting Through Reduced Fuel Burden (Washington, DC: Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics, January 2001), pp. 39-45.
42 Book, “Pentagon Needs Accurate Accounting of Fuel,” p. 36; Defense Science Board Task Force on Improving Fuel Efficiency of Weapons Platforms, More Capable Warfighting Through Reduced Fuel Burden, p. ES-1.
43 Ibid., pp. 31-35.
44 On FORTRAN, see User Notes on Fortran Programming, “A Brief History of FORTRAN/Fortran,” http://www.ibiblio.org/pub/languages/fortran/ch1-1.html. Book, “Pentagon Needs Accurate Accounting of Fuel,” p. 36.
45 Victor Mallet, “China Is Biggest Oil Consumer After U.S.,” Financial Times, January 21, 2004, p. 10. Also, Energy Information Administration, “Country Analysis Briefs: United States,” April 2004, http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/usa.html#oil.
46 “Tonnes of Problems,” Economist, April 19, 2003.
47 Barbara Freese, Coal: A Human History (Cambridge, MA: Perseus Publishing, 2003), pp. 207-208.
48 “Tonnes of Problems.”
49 “Asia’s Biggest Strip Coal Mine to Take a Green Look,” Xinhua News Agency [wire service], July 12, 2002.
50 James Brooke, “Russia’s Latest Oil and Gas Oasis,” New York Times, May 13, 2003. p. W1.
51 “World Gas: Shell in Asia; Cracking China,” Petroleum Economist, May 19, 2003, p. 17.
52 “BP Bites the Russian Bullet,” Petroleum Economist, March 18, 2003, p. 38.
53 Michael T. Klare, “Oiling the Wheels of War,” Nation, September 19, 2002.
54 National Energy Policy Development Group, “Reliable, Affordable, and Environmentally Sound Energy for America’s Future,” May 2001, p. xiii.
55 “Night Fell on a Different World—A Year On,” Economist, September 7, 2002.
56 “Supplement on Canadian Energy,” Petroleum Economist, January 14, 1998, pp. 18-24.
57 “Non-Conventional Hydrocarbons: Scratching the Surface,” Petroleum Economist, March 31, 2002, p. 31.
58 “Supplement on Canadian Energy, pp. 18-24.”
59 Lesley Curwen, “Shell Moves Mountains to Take Oil from the Land of the Cree,” Independent on Sunday, January 26, 2003, p. 5.
60 Greenpeace International, “Greenpeace Calls on Prime Minister to Cut Carbon Subsidies,” November 4, 1997, http://archive.greenpeace.org/~climate/archive/kdates/november04.html.
61 “Supplement on Canadian Energy,” pp. 18-24
62 See “News in Brief,” Petroleum Economist, November 30, 1999, pp. 42-43, and December 21, 1999, p. 65.
63 “News in Brief,” Petroleum Economist, September 30, 1999, p. 74.
64 “Pooling Expertise in Oil Sands,” Petroleum Economist, October 29, 1999, p. 39.
65 L. F. Ivanhoe, “Canada’s Future Oil Production: Projected 2000-2020,” Hubbert Center Newsletter #2002/2 (Golden, CO: Colorado School of Mines, 2002).
66 Richard Heinberg, The Party’s Over: Oil, War, and the Fate of Industrial Societies (Gabriola Island, British Columbia: New Society Publishers, 2003), p. 112.
67 “Oil Sands Threatened by Environmental Concerns,” Petroleum Economist, November 19, 2002, p. 33.
68 Ibid.
69 “Canada: Oil Sands Under Pressure,” Petroleum Economist, August 19, 2002, p. 32.
70 “Undeterred by the low oil price,” Petroleum Economist, February 10, 1999, p. 101.
71 Heinberg, The Party’s Over, p. 112.
72 Hanneke Brooymans, “Oil and Water: A Volatile Mix,” Edmonton Journal, March 2, 2003, p. D5.
73 Ivanhoe, “Canada’s Future Oil Production,” p. 2.
74 “Supplement on Canadian Energy,” p. 21.
75 “Cost Over-Runs Hit Oil-Sands Investors,” Petroleum Economist, September 20, 2001, p. 43.
76 “Book on Wiebo Ludwig Saga Pegs RCMP As Incompetent,” Ottawa Citizen, October 23, 2001, p. D10.
77 “Cost Over-Runs Hit Oil-Sands Investors,” p. 43.
78 “Could Canada’s Vast Tar Sands Prove the Ultimate Anti-OPEC Resource?” Economist, June 26, 2003.
79 Clifford Krauss, “In Canada’s wilderness, measuring the cost of oil profits,” New York Times, October 9, 2005.
80 Global Vision video transcript, “Colin Campbell: The Decline of the Petroleum Age,” November 2002, http://www.global-vision.org/wssd/campbell.html.
81 Dev George, “Caspian Equal to Mideast Gulf,” Offshore (March 1996), p. 34.
82 Michael Klare, Resource Wars: The New Landscape of Global Conflict (New York: Henry Holt, 2002), pp. 84-85.
83 Elaine Sciolino, “It’s a Sea! It’s a Lake! No. It’s a Pool of Oil,” New York Times, June 21, 1998, p. 16; Theodore C. Jonas, “‘Parting the Sea’: Caspian Littoral States Seek Boundary Disputes’ Resolution,” Oil & Gas Journal, May 28, 2001, p. 66.
84 Greg Muttitt and James Marriott, Some Common Concerns: Imagining BP’s Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey Pipelines System (London: PLATFORM, 2002), pp. 26, 107.
85 Greg Muttitt, interview by the author, February 2003.
86 After the invasion of Iraq in 2003, word started to leak out that the United States might be willing to bless a pipeline project through Iran, in return for Iran’s help “fashioning a post-Saddam Hussein Iraqi government.” See Darius Snieckus, “Caspian Commitment Plays the Waiting Game,” Offshore Engineer (May 2003), p. 18.
87 Jeremy Leggett, The Carbon War: Global Warming and the End of the Oil Era (New York: Routledge, 2001), p. 67.
88 Klare, Resource Wars, p. 95.
89 Muttitt and Marriott, Some Common Concerns, pp. 31, 57.
90 Global Vision video transcript, “Colin Campbell.”
91 Paul Brown, “Oil Money Threatens to Make Killing Fields of Kazakhstan: Wild East Could End the West’s Dependence on OPEC but at a Heavy Cost,” The Guardian, December 4, 2002, p. 28.
92 Energy Information Administration, “Country Analysis Briefs.”
93 Arik Hesseldahl, “Saddam’s Oil Fit,” Forbes, April 8, 2002, http://www.forbes.com/2002/04/08/0408oil.html.
94 Marego Athans, “Does Oil Fuel U.S. Plan?” Vancouver Sun, February 14, 2003, p. A9.
95 “Despite Crisis, Iraq Outlines Plan to Boost Crude Production,” Oil Daily, February 20, 2003; International Petroleum Encyclopedia 2002 (Tulsa, OK: Pennwell, 2002), p. 99.
96 International Petroleum Encyclopedia 2002, p. 99.
97 John Diamond, “U.S. in Combat Under Constraints,” USA Today, March 26, 2003, 4A.
98 John M. Broder, “Fuel Supplies Are a Top Concern of Military Planners,” New York Times,
March 19, 2003; Neela Banerjee, “Army Depots in Iraqi Desert Have Names of Oil Giants,” New York Times, March 27, 2003.
99 Peter Pae, “Military Wants to Lease 100 Boeing 767 jets,” Los Angeles Times, May 24, 2003, p. C1; also, Air Force Media Center, “DoD Announces Details of Tanker Lease Program,” April-June 2003; and Airforce Technology, “KC-767 Tanker Transport Aircraft, USA,” http://www.airforce-technology.com/projects/kc767/. .
100 Broder, “Fuel Supplies Are a Top Concern of Military Planners.”
101 Sabrina Tavernise, “Harried G.I.’s Keep Order in Mosul’s Gas Lines,” New York Times, May 7, 2003.
102 Jeff Gerth, “Oil Experts See Long-Term Risks to Iraqi Underground Reserves,” New York Times, November 30, 2003, p. 1.
103 Eric Watkins, “Disputes Flare Anew over Iraqi E &D Contracts,” Oil & Gas Journal, May 28, 2003.
104 Sabrina Tavernise, “U.S. Tells Iraq Oil Ministers Not to Act Without Its O.K.,” New York Times, April 30, 2003.
105 Neela Banerjee, “U.S. Official Treads Carefully in Overseeing Iraqi Oil Industry,” New York Times, May 12, 2003.
106 Oliver Morgan and Nick Mathiason, “Amec Loses Out to U.S. in Iraq Deal,” Observer, January 18, 2004, p. 1.
107 Daniel Fisher, “Dangerous Liaisons: Selling Oil Means Cutting Deals with Dictators. Nobody Does It Better Than ExxonMobil,” Forbes, April 28, 2003.
108 “Shell to participate in integrated reservoir study in Iraq,” Shell in the Middle East magazine, April 2005, available at http://www.shell-me.com/english/apr05/news-me2.htm.
109 Maureen Lorenzetti et al., “Rebuilding Iraqi Oil Sector Must Navigate Feuds Old and New,” Oil & Gas Journal, April 21, 2003, p. 18.
110 Ed Vuillamy, “U.S. Discussed Plan to Pump Fuel to Its Regional Ally and Solve Energy Headache at a Stroke,” Observer, April 20, 2003; “Tel Aviv Seeks to Tap War Dividend,” Petroleum Economist, May 19, 2003, p. 38.
111 White House Office of the Press Secretary, “Dr. Condoleezza Rice Discusses the President’s Trip to Africa,” press release, July 3, 2003, http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2003/07/print/20030703-14.html. .
112 Energy Information Administration, “Country Analysis Briefs.”
113 “Iraqi Production,” Oil & Gas Journal, January 5, 2004, p. 6.
114 Jeff Gerth, “Doubts Raised on Saudi Vow for More Oil,” New York Times, October 27, 2005.
115 James Sterngold, “Cheney’s Grim Vision: Decades of War,” San Francisco Chronicle, January 15, 2004, p. 3.
116 Heather Timmons and Vikas Bajaj, “BP Details Its Damages from Hurricanes,” New York Times, October 5, 2005.
117 David Teather, “Republicans Turn on the Oil Industry as Petrol Prices Soar,” The Guardian, November 10, 2005.
118 Jad Mouawad, “With Oil Prices off Their Peak, Are Supplies Assured?” New York Times, December 5, 2005.
119 Jad Mouawad, “Oil Producers Are Urged to Invest in More Capacity,” New York Times, November 7, 2005.
120 Jeff Gerth, “Doubts Raised on Saudi Vow for More Oil,” New York Times, October 27, 2005.
Chapter Ten
1 “The average solar energy influx in North America is about 22 watts per square foot.” Richard Heinberg, The Party’s Over: Oil, War, and the Fate of Industrial Societies (Gabriola Island, British Columbia: New Society Publishers, 2003), p. 142. 22 watts (joules/sec) = 75.117345 BTU/hour. 4 BTU ~ 1 kilocalorie.
2 Jeremy Leggett, letter to Lord John Browne (CEO of BP), September 27, 2001.
3 Jeremy Leggett, The Carbon War: Global Warming and the End of the Oil Era (New York: Routledge, 2001), p. 205.
4 Kenneth S. Deffeyes, Hubbert’s Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage, (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2001), p. 183.
5 Leggett, The Carbon War, p. 205.
6 Rex Tillerson, “Current Sources—A Global View” (presentation, Institute of Petroleum, London, UK, February 17, 2003).
7 U.S. Photovoltaic Industry Roadmap Steering Committee, “Solar-Electric Power: The U.S. Photovoltaic Industry Roadmap,” April 2001, p. 26.
8 Interstate Oil and Gas Compact Commission, “Who Will Fund America’s Energy Future? Petroleum Research and Development in the Twenty-first Century,” summer 2002, p. 3.
9 Shell, “Shell Renewables - Shell WindEnergy - Facts and Figures,” http://www.shell.com/home/Framework?siteId.=rw-br&FC2=&FC3=/rw-br/html/iwgen/about_shell/wind/facts_0603.html .
10 “The Unrepentant Oilman,” Economist, March 15, 2003.
11 Leggett, letter to Browne.
12 Leggett, The Carbon War, pp. 244, 272.
13 Leggett, letter to the author.
14 Heinberg, The Party’s Over, pp. 141, 152-153.
15 Nolan Fell, “Sun Block: A Rush on Microprocessors Is Good News for Silicon Chip Makers, but It Could Spell Disaster for the Solar Energy Revolution,” New Scientist, May 10, 2003, p. 38.
16 Deffeyes, Hubbert’s Peak, p. 183.
17 “Twenty-second World Gas Conference: Fulfilling the Potential for Gas,” Petroleum Economist, July 16, 2003, p. 13.
18 Tillerson, “Current Sources—A Global View.”
19 “The Unrepentant Oilman.”
20 Seth Dunn, Hydrogen Futures: Toward a Sustainable Energy System (Washington, DC: Worldwatch Institute, August 2001), p. 6.
21 “These Fuellish Things,” Economist, February 15, 2003.
22 Dunn, Hydrogen Futures, p. 6.
23 “These Fuellish Things.”
24 Dunn, Hydrogen Futures, p. 7.
25 Amory B. Lovins, “Twenty Hydrogen Myths,” Rocky Mountain Institute, June 23, 2003, http://www.rmi.org/sitepages/pid171.php#20H2Myths .
26 Donald L. Barlett and James B. Steele, “The U.S. Is Running Out of Energy,” Time, July 21, 2003, p. 36.
27 “Making Gas from Gas,” Economist, January 18, 1997, p. 78.
28 “The Third Age of Fuel,” Economist, October 25, 1997, p. 16.
29 Pembina Institute, “Fuel Cells: A Green Solution? ” press release, March 2000.
30 “The Third Age of Fuel,” p. 16.
31 Dunn, Hydrogen Futures, p. 53.
32 John Vidal, “Tomorrow’s Petrol Is a Gas,” The Guardian, November 11, 2004, 6.
33 “The Billion-Dollar Bet,” transcript, 60 Minutes II, April 2, 2003.
34 Department of Energy, “F Y 2002 Progress Report for Hydrogen, Fuel Cells, and Infrastructure Technologies Program,” Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Office of Hydrogen, Fuel Cells, and Infrastructure Technologies, November 2002, p. 6.
35 “The Fuel Cell’s Bumpy Ride,” Economist, March 24, 2001.
36 Rob Coppinger and Julia Pierce, “Fuelling a Myth,” Engineer, February 20, 2003, http://www.e4engineering.com/story.aspx?uid=c435d6af-ef2b-466a-b020-ea3d068ac8ef.
37 Jack Doyle, “Fool Cells: How Detroit Plays Americans for a Bunch of Suckers,” February 6, 2003, http://tompaine.com/scontent/7210.html.
38 John Vidal, “Tomorrow’s Petrol Is a Gas,” The Guardian, November 11, 2004, 6.
39 White House Office of the Press Secretary, “Statement by the President,” February 27, 2003.
40 Thomas F. Armistead, “Prototype Will Generate 275 M W, Produce Salable By-Products,” Engineering News-Record, March 10, 2003, p. 16.
41 See Stanford University Global Climate & Energy Project, http://gcep.stanfordedu/. .
42 Barbara Freese, Coal: A Human History (Cambridge, MA: Perseus Publishers, 2003), p. 194.
43 E-mail post by Gregson Vaux to Energy Resources group, 2003.
44 Freese, Coal, p. 194.
45 Heinberg, The Party’s Over, p. 130.
46 “Senate Adds Rule to Energy Bill to Double Ethanol in Gasoline,” New York Times, June 6, 2003, p. 20.
47 Dan Morgan, “Under the Influence of Ethanol: Pressure to Help Corn Farmers Is Key Part of Energy Deal,” Washington Post, August 26, 2002, p. 13.
48 Keith Bradsher, High and Mighty: SUVs—The World’s Most Dangerous Vehicles and How They Got That Way
(New York: PublicAffairs, 2002), pp. 257-259.
49 T. W. Patzek et al., “Ethanol from Corn: Clean Renewable Fuel for the Future or Drain on our Resources and Pockets? ” June 4, 2003, University of California, Berkeley, http://www.ce.berkeley.edu/Courses/E11/PatzekEthanolPaper.pdf.
50 “Fuel for Thought,” Los Angeles Times, January 13, 2006, 10.
51 Jamie Miyazaki, “Natural Gas’s New Global Role,” Asia Times, November 11, 2003.
52 “BP plans to double renewables spend,” Petroleum Economist, January 4, 2006.
53 Simon Romero, “A New Old Way to Make Diesel,” New York Times, January 18, 2006 [online].
54 Charles F. Conaway, The Petroleum Industry: A Nontechnical Guide (Tulsa, OK: PennWell, 1999), pp. 222-227.
55 Ike Okonta and Oronto Douglas, Where Vultures Feast: Shell, Human Rights, and Oil in the Niger Delta (San Francisco: Sierra Club, 2001), pp. 88-89.
56 Heinberg, The Party’s Over, p. 127.
57 Miyazaki, “Natural Gas’s New Global Role.”
58 Claudia H. Deutsch, “Natural Gas: The Stealth Energy Crisis,” New York Times, December 17, 2005, B3.
59 Heinberg, The Party’s Over, p. 126.
60 Frank Clemente, “Canada Cannot Solve Our Natural Gas Problem,” Energy Pulse, June 17, 2003.
61 “Residents, Energy Interests Clash in Rockies: Many Moved to the West for the Environment, but Drilling Has Marred Land,” Associated Press, February 1, 2004.
62 Tom Doggett, “Energy Firms Get $1 Billion Break in Fees,” Reuters, January 23, 2004.
63 Simon Romero, “Short Supply of Natural Gas Raises Economic Worries,” New York Times, June 17, 2003, p. 1.
64 Nelson Antosh, “Using an Innovative Platform, Project in Alaska Aims to Tap Vast Source of ‘Ice That Burns,’” Houston Chronicle, February 23, 2003, p. 1.
65 Antosh, “Using an Innovative Platform, Project in Alaska Aims to Tap Vast Source of ‘Ice That Burns,’” p. 1.
66 “Vehicles: Navy Reveals Research Efforts,” Fuel Cell Technology News (September 2002).
67 Robert S. Carney, interview by the author, March 28, 2003.
68 ChevronTexaco, “2001 Annual Report,” p. 24.
69 “Twenty-second World Gas Conference: Fulfilling the Potential for Gas,” Petroleum Economist, July 16, 2003, p. 13.
