The Bell Curve: Intelligence and Class Structure in American Life

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The Bell Curve: Intelligence and Class Structure in American Life Page 73

by Richard J. Herrnstein

ChiSq

  Intercep −2.8430001 0.0687859 1708.3 0.0000

  zAFQT89 −0.6710186 0.0765998 76.74 0.0000

  zSES −0.2383458 0.0800828 8.86 0.0029

  zAge −0.1428139 0.062902 5.15 0.0232

  TestYr.

  [86-901] +0.0128625 0.0858087 0.02 0.8808

  TestYr.

  [88-90] −0.0414196 0.0798373 0.27 0.6039

  HomeAgeCat

  [0/2-6+] +03225819 0.081541 15.65 0.0001

  HomeAgeCat

  [3/5-6+] −0.1338273 0.0852061 2.47 0.1163

  Basic Analysis, Adding Poverty Status in the Year Before the HOME Index was Scored (PreTYPov):

  Whole-Model Test

  Source DF -LogLikelihood ChiSquare Prob>ChiSq

  Model 8 116.4719 232.9438 0.000000

  Error 4655 1049.6688

  C Total 4663 1166.1407

  RSquare (U) 0.0999

  Observations 4664

  Parameter Estimates

  Term Estimate Std Error ChiSquare Prob>ChiSq

  Intercept −2.5413180 0.0768882 1092.4 0.0000

  zAFQT89 −0.5717052 0.0847651 45.49 0.0000

  zSES −0.1646842 0.0848268 3.77 0.0522

  zAge −0.0836204 0.0673282 1.54 0.2142

  TestYr

  [86-90] Unstable +0.0068172 0.0900515 0.01

  0.9397

  TestYr

  [88-90] −0.0538353 0.0851491 0.40 0.5272

  HomeAge

  Cat[0/2-6+] +03100371 0.0867081 12,79 0.0003

  HomeAge

  Cat[3/5-6+] −0.0968535 0.0892661 1.18 0.2779

  PreTYPov

  [NO-Yes] −0.5366001 0.0664395 65.23 0.0000

  Basic Analysis, Adding AFDC Status in the Year Before the HOME Index Was Scored (PreTYDAC):

  Whole-Model Test

  Source DF -LogLikelihood ChiSquare Prob>ChiSq

  Model 8 120.4866 240.9733 0.000000

  Error 5101 11503749

  C Total 5109 1270.8615

  RSquare (U) 0.0948

  Observations 5110

  Parameter Estimates

  Term Estimate Std Error ChiSquare Prob>ChiSq

  Intercept −2.4639335 0.0797203 955.26 0.0000

  zAFQT89 −0.5835098 0.078223 55.65 0.0000

  zSES −0.1973545 0.0813485 5.89 0.0153

  zAge −0.0908713 0.0644499 1.99 0.1586

  TestYr[86-90] −0.0105341 0.0872339 0.01 0.9039

  TestYr[88-90] −0.0232495 0.0811592 0.08 0.7745

  HomeAge

  Cat[0/2-6+] +0.3429802 0.0829005 17.12 0.0000

  HomeAge

  Cat[3/5-6+] −0.1348740 0.0863764 2.44 0.1184

  PreTYADC

  [No-Yes] −0.5572417 0.0680104 67.13 0.0000

  Basic Analysis, Adding Both Poverty and AFDC Status in the Year Before the HOME Index was Scored (PreTYPov, PreTYADC):

  Whole-Model Test

  Source DF -LogLikelihood ChiSquare Prob>ChiSq

  Model 9 127.1525 254.3049 0.000000

  Error 4654 1038.9883

  C Total 4663 1166.1407

  RSquare (U) 0.1090

  Observations 4664

  Parameter Estimates

  Term Estimate Std Error ChiSquare Prob>ChiSq

  Intercept −2.3642864 0.0832843 805.89 0.0000

  zAFQT89 −0.5452068 0.0849779 41.16 0.0000

  zSES −0.1657978 0.0852414 3.78 0.0518

  zAge −0.0664416 0.0679088 0.96 0.3279

  TestYr[86-90] Unstable +0.0029083 0.0904431 0.00

  0.9743

  TestYr[88-90] −0.0455863 0.0856239 0.28 0.5944

  HomeAge

  Cat[0/2-6+] +0.3145455 0.087279 12.99 0.0003

  HomeAge

  Cat[3/5-6+] −0.1002522 0.0896764 1.25 0.2636

  PreTYADC

  [No-Yes] −0.3806916 0.0809799 22.10 0.0000

  PreTYPov

  [No-Yes] −0.3774093 0.0762828 24.48 0.0000

  The High School Sample:

  Whole-Model Test

  Source DF -LogLikelihood ChiSquare Prob>ChiSq

  Model 7 26.90513 53.81026 0.000000

  Error 2282 526.92206

  C Total 2289 553.82719

  RSquare (U) 0.0486

  Observations 2290

  Parameter Estimates

  Term Estimate Std Error ChiSquare Prob>ChiSq

  Intercept −2.9071274 0.1079507 725.23 0.0000

  zAFQT89 −0.5655610 0.1331445 18.04 0.0000

  zSES −0.3731384 0.1355456 7.58 0.0059

  zAge −0.1569221 0.0964674 2.65 0.1038

  TestYr[86-90] +0.0755310 0.1295874 0.34 0.5600

  TestYr[88-90] −0.1487970 0.1239539 1.44 0.2300

  HomeAge

  Cat[0/2-6+] +0.3159089 0.1236104 6.53 0.0106

  HomeAge

  Cat[3/5-6+] −0.0254850 0.1242055 0.04 0.8374

  The College Sample: Omitted. The cross-sectional sample included only five cases of children in the bottom decile on the HOME index.

  DEPENDENT VARIABLE: The child was in the bottom decile on any of the four developmental indicators (friendliness index, difficulty index, motor and social development index, and behavioral problems index).

  SAMPLE RESTRICTIONS: None.

  ADDITIONAL CONTROL VARIABLES: Test year (TestYr, nominal: 1986, 1988, or 1990).

  Basic Analysis:

  Whole-Model Test

  Source DF -LogLikelihood ChiSquare Prob>ChiSq

  Model 5 35.5004 71.00086 0.000000

  Error 4885 1534.3911

  C Total 4890 1569.8915

  RSquare (U) 0.0226

  Observations 4891

  Parameter Estimates

  Term Estimate Std Error ChiSquare Prob>ChiSq

  Intercept −2.2678463 0.0523382 1877.5 0.0000

  zAFQT89 −0.3374850 0.0666453 25.64 0.0000

  zSES −0.1454605 0.0662047 4.83 0.0280

  zAge −0.0406925 0.0531744 0.59 0.4441

  TestYr[86-90] +0.1789367 0.0698843 6.56 0.0105

  TestYr[88-90] −0.0070670 0.0677961 0.01 0.9170

  Basic Analysis, Adding Poverty Status and Welfare Status in the Year Prior to Testing (PreTYPov, PreTYADC) and Whether the Child was Born out of Wedlock (BStatus):

  Whole-Model Test

  Source DF -Loglikehood ChiSquare Pob>ChiSq

  Model 8 42.9933 85.98651 0.000000

  Error 4329 1350.0000

  C Total 4337 1392.9933

  RSquare (U) 0.0309

  Observations 4338

  Parameter Estimates

  Term Estimate Std Error ChiSquare Prob>ChiSq

  Intercept −2.00631470 0.0860525 543.59 0.0000

  zAFQT89 −0.25174490 0.075657 11.07 0.0009

  zSES −0.13270420 0.0708367 3.51 0.0610

  zAge +0.01726122 0.0575776 0.09 0.7643

  TestYr[86-90] +0.18566228 0.0735475 6.37 0.0116

  TestYr[88-90] +0.01877328 0.072493 0.07 0.7957

  PreTYADC

  [Yes-No] +0.13056720 0.0820003 2.54 0.1113

  PreTYPov

  [Yes-No] +0.24199190 0.0714256 11.48 0.0007

  BStatus

  [Illegit-Legit] +0.01707707 0.0764089 0.05 0.8231

  The High School Sample:

  Whole-Model Test

  Source DF -LogLikelihood ChiSquare Prob>ChiSq

  Model 5 13.59824 27.19647 0.000052

  Error 2181 704.58153

  C Total 2186 718.17976

  RSquare (U) 0.0189

  Observations 2187

  Parameter Estimates

  Term Estimate Std Error ChiSquare Prob>ChiSq

  Intercept −2.3178135 0.0834745 770.99 0.0000

  zAFQT89 −0.3193097 0.1100786 8.41 0.0037

  zSES −0.3161019 0.1113263 8.06 0.0045

  zAge +0.0231487 0.0778738 0.09 0.7663

  TestYr[86-90] +0.1566625 0.1029997 2.31 0.1283

  TestYr[88-90] +0.0136187 0.0996255 0.02 0.8913

  The College Sample:

  Whole-Model Test

  Source DF -LogLikelihood ChiSquare Prob>ChiSq

  M
odel 5 5.166097 10.33219 0.066352

  Error 346 74.395923

  C Total 351 79.562020

  RSquare (U) 0.0649

  Observations 352

  Parameter Estimates

  Term Estimate Std Error ChiSquare Prob>ChiSq

  Intercept −3.0081530 0.530244 32.18 0.0000

  zAFQT89 +0.78938018 0.3581312 4.86 0.0275

  zSES −0.80898430 0.3371107 5.76 0.0164

  zAge Unstable +0.01498142 0.2822683 0.00

  0.9577

  TestYr[86-90] +0.41149788 0.3719686 1.22 0.2686

  TestYr[88-90] −0.34603300 0.3626176 0.91 0.3399

  DEPENDENT VARIABLE: The child was in the bottom decile on the Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test (PPVT).

  SAMPLE RESTRICTIONS: Includes only children tested at age 6 and older.

  ADDITIONAL CONTROL VARIABLES: Test year (TestYr, nominal: 1986, 1988, or 1990) and age at which the child was tested (continuous, in months, m = 107.0,s = 27.1)

  Basic Analysis:

  Whole-Model Test

  Source DF -LogLikelihood ChiSquare Prob>ChiSq

  Model 6 24.69587 49.39173 0.000000

  Error 640 186.29121

  C Total 646 210.98708

  RSquare (U) 0.1170

  Observations 647

  Parameter Estimates

  Term Estimate Std Error ChiSquare Prob>ChiSq

  Intercept −2.21570603 0.8589707 6.65 0.0099

  zAFQT89 −1.11994138 0.1950498 32.97 0.0000

  zSES −0.08185312 0.1820132 0.20 0.6529

  zAge −0.02769682 0.1856376 0.02 0.8814

  PPVTAge −0.00466266 0.0077779 0.36 0.5489

  TestYr[86-90] −0.16528217 0.2424523 0.46 0.4954

  TestYr[88-90] −0.07970146 0.2250145 0.13 0.7232

  Basic Analysis Adding Poverty Status in the Year Prior to the PPVT (PreTYPov) and the HOME Index Score Expressed in Standard Scores (zHOME):

  Whole-Model Test

  Source DF -LogLikelihood ChiSquare Prob>ChiSq

  Model 8 17.72094 35.44187 0.000022

  Error 582 153.59135

  C Total 590 171.31229

  RSquare (U) 0.1034

  Oservations 591

  Parameter Estimates

  Term Estimate Std Error ChiSquare Prob>ChiSq

  Intercept −2.1291342 0.9565224 4.95 0.0260

  zAFQT89 −1.0337219 0.2205373 21.97 0.0000

  zSES −0.0861738 0.2093703 0.17 0.6806

  zAge +0.0296014 0.2145926 0.02 0.8903

  TestYr[86-90] −0.2286597 0.2683805 0.73 0.3942

  TestYr[88-90] −0.0483017 0.2526343 0.04 0.8484

  PPVTAge −0.0067930 0.0085395 0.63 0.4263

  zHOME −0.1945375 0.1842224 1.12 0.2910

  PreTYPov

  [No-Yes] +0.0903504 0.2016689 0.20 0.6541

  The High School Sample:

  Whole-Model Test

  Source DF -LogLikelihood ChiSquare Pro>ChiSq

  Model 6 7.225514 14.45103 0.024984

  Error 254 68.236589

  C Total 260 75.462103

  RSquare (U) 0.0958

  Observations 261

  Parameter Estimates

  Term Estimate Std Error ChiSquare Prob>ChiSq

  Intercept −0.2705795 1.4383055 0.04 0.08508

  zAFQT89 −0.9296387 0.3952333 5.53 0.0187

  zSES −0.0918753 0.3493501 0.07 0.7926

  zAge +0.9267613 0.4137423 5.02 0.0251

  TestYr[86-90] −1.0895230 0.4214316 6.68 0.0097

  TestYr[88-90] +0.3167489 0.3591565 0.78 0.3778

  PPVTAge −0.0287800 0.0132748 4.70 0.0302

  The College Sample: Omitted. No cases of a child age 6 or older in the bottom decile on the PPVT in the cross-sectional sample.

  Women with Less Than a High School Education:

  Whole-Model Test

  Source DF -Loglikehood ChiSquare Prob>ChiSq

  Model 6 6.239129 12.47826 0.052111

  Error 139 70.537266

  C Total 145 76.776395

  RSquare (U) 0.0813

  Observations 146

  Parameter Estimates

  Term Estimate Std Error ChiSquare Prob>Chisq

  Intercept −3.6384326 1.460085 6.21 0.0127

  zAFQT89 −8396200 0.3093784 7.37 0.0066

  zSES +0.0090359 0.2914784 0.00 0.9753

  zAge 0.4386216 0.3016201 2.11 0.1459

  Test Yr[86-90] +0.3771342 0.3759239 1.01 0.3158

  TestYr[88-90] −0.4974755 0.3638669 1.87 0.1716

  PPVTAge +0.0133480 0.011851 1.27 0.2600

  CHAPTER 11: CRIME

  DEPENDENT VARIABLE: The subject was in the top decile on an index of self-reported crime.

  SAMPLE RESTRICTIONS: Includes only men.

  Basic Analysis:

  Whole-Model Test

  Source DF -LogLikelihood ChiSquare Prob>ChiSq

  Model 3 10.02735 20.05469 0.000165

  Error 2004 649.74218

  C Total 2007 659.76953

  RSquare (U) 0.0152

  Observations 2008

  Parameter Estimates

  Term Estimate Std Error ChiSquare Prob>ChiSq

  Intercept −2.22005314 0.0807852 755.20 0.0000

  zAFQT89 −0.26980189 0.0902397 8.94 0.0028

  zSES +0.13972790 0.0979853 2.03 0.1539

  zAge −0.20372081 0.080365 6.43 0.0112

  The High School Sample:

  Whole-Model Test

  Source DF -LogLikelihood ChiSquare Prob>ChiSq

  Model 3 4.28228 8.564558 0.035677

  Error 661 201.83770

  C Total 664 206.11998

  RSquare (U) 0.0208

  Observations 665

  Parameter Estimates

  Term Estimate Std Error ChiSquare Prob>ChiSq

  Intercept −2.35032467 0.1445857 264.24 0.0000

  zAFQT89 +0.2120838 0.2006406 1.12 0.2905

  zSES +0.3653400 0.1981511 3.40 0.0652

  zAge −0.26122639 0.1457019 3.21 0.0730

  The College Sample:

  Whole-Model Test

  Source DF -LogLikelihood ChiSquare Prob>ChiSq

  Model 3 2.959829 5.919657 0.115585

  Error 276 46.577870

  C Total 279 49.537698

  RSquare (U) 0.0597

  Observations 280

  Parameter Estimates

  Term Estimate Std Error ChiSquare Prob>ChiSq

  Intercept −333070801 0.7047663 22.33 0.0000

  zAFQT89 −0.63468357 0.5194501 1.49 0.2218

  zSES +0.80027390 0.4591207 3.04 0.0813

  zAge +0.39913230 0.306701 1.69 0.1931

  DEPENDENT VARIABLE: The subject was interviewed in a correctional facility in one or more interviews from 1979 to 1990.

  SAMPLE RESTRICTIONS: Includes only men.

  Basic Analysis:

  Whole-Model Test

  Source DF -LogLikelihood ChiSquare Prob>ChiSq

  Model 3 23.31444 46.62887 0.000000

  Error 1941 219.90125

  C Total 1944 243.21569

  RSquare (U) 0.0959

  Observations 1945

  Parameter Estimates

  Term Estimate Std Error ChiSquare Prob>ChiSq

  Intercept −3.77716689 0.1717938 483.41 0.0000

  zAFQT89 −0.89666260 0.1753619 26.14 0.0000

  zSES −0.15554116 0.1806149 0.74 0.3891

  zAge +0.0782992 0.1468634 0.28 0.5939

  The High School Sample:

  Whole-Model Test

  Source DF -LogLikelihood ChiSquare Prob>ChiSq

  Model 3 4.058464 8.116928 0.043656

  Error 712 39.850585

  C Total 715 43.909049

  RSquare (U) 0.0924

  Observations 716

  Parameter Estimates

  Term Estimate Std Error ChiSquare Prob>ChiSq

  Intercept −4.96578763 0.4806319 106.75 0.000

  zAFQT89 −1.07006679 0.443121 5.83 0.0157

  zSES −0.16211965 0.4642977 0.12 0.7270

  zAge +0.46727190 0.367754 1.61 0.2039

 
The College Sample: Omitted. No one in the cross-sectional College Sample was ever interviewed in jail.

  CHAPTER 12: CIVILITY AND CITIZENSHIP

  DEPENDENT VARIABLE: Did the subject score “yes” on the Middle Class Values Index?

  SAMPLE RESTRICTIONS: Excludes never-married persons who met all the other conditions of the index and men who were physically unable to work or not in the labor force because they were attending school.

  Basic Analysis:

  Whole-Model Test

  Source DF -LogLikelihood ChiSquare Prob>ChiSq

  Model 3 161.7136 323.4273 0.000000

  Error 3025 1937.4328

  C Total 3028 2099.1465

  RSquare (U) 0.0770

  Observations 3029

  Parameter Estimates

  Term Estimate Std Error ChiSquare Prob>ChiSq

  Intercept −0.06385330 0.038934 2.69 0.1010

  zAFQT89 +0.63250551 0.0528176 143.41 0.0000

  zSES +0.24495537 0.0520624 22.14 0.0000

  zAge +0.00663732 0.0401929 0.03 0.8688

  The High School Sample:

  Whole-Model Test

  Source DF -LogLikelihood ChiSquare Prob>ChiSq

  Model 3 3.00926 6.018528 0.110712

  Error 1158 781.85686

  C Total 1161 784.86612

  RSquare (U) 0.0038

  Observations 1162

  Parameter Estimates

  Term Estimate Std Error ChiSquare Prob>ChiSq

  Intercept +0.39447706 0.0611821 41.57 0.0000

  zAFQT89 +0.16814512 0.0931181 3.26 0.0710

  zSES −0.17993040 0.0903402 3.97 0.0464

  zAge +0.01887678 0.0621776 0.09 0.7614

  The College Sample:

  Whole-Model Test

  Source DF -LogLikelihood ChiSquare Prob>ChiSq

  Model 3 3.26859 6.537177 0.088208

  Error 398 200.09145

  C Total 401 203.36004

  RSquare (U) 0.0161

  Observations 402

  Parameter Estimates

  Term Estimate Std Error ChiSquare Prob>ChiSq

  Intercept +0.99516202 0.2386798 17.38 0.0000

  zAFQT89 +0.39251349 0.1988073 3.90 0.0483

  zSES +0.03692158 0.168585 0.05 0.8266

 

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