The Swarm

by Orson Scott Card

  “He’s right,” said Mazer. “We can’t determine the intentions of these asteroids based on their current movements. The Formics know we can see them. They’re going to be even more deceptive than normal.”

  “So we can infer nothing?” said Li.

  “We can infer a few things,” said Bingwen. “We may not be right, but we can guess with confidence.”

  “Give us an example,” said Li.

  “These asteroids are easy to blow up,” said Bingwen. “Their atmosphere is volatile. So they’re vulnerable. The Hive Queen knows that. She also knows we’ll figure that out. So she seizes a lot more asteroids than she actually needs because she expects us to take out a large number of them. Maybe she only needs thirty percent of these rocks. Or five percent. We don’t know. But it’s safe to assume that a lot of these rocks are expected casualties. The seeming random flight of these asteroids reinforces that idea, because hey, if you don’t technically need them in the end, why not use them to confuse the enemy?”

  “That doesn’t tell us anything useful,” said Zembassi.

  “It tells us the Hive Queen has a unique purpose in mind for at least some of these asteroids,” said Bingwen. “And it puts the extinction-weapon theory into serious doubt. Because if she were sincerely trying to annihilate Earth with asteroids, she would have simply done so. This is far more asteroids than we can stop. The Hive Queen knows that. But does she send the asteroids to Earth? No. She doesn’t even put a single one on a trajectory to Earth because she doesn’t want to take that risk. She won’t even try to deceive us on that because it endangers her prize.”

  “This is still only speculation,” said Zembassi.

  “Of course,” said Bingwen. “We can’t know anything definitive until we identify which asteroids matter.”

  “Which is impossible,” said one of the senior officers.

  “Not impossible,” said Mazer. “But like Bingwen said, we can guess with confidence. So let’s guess. First we have the ones that are moving away from the center of the ecliptic, away from Earth. Let’s assume that Bingwen is right and that these are feints. We ignore these.” He looked at Zembassi. “How do we make those go away in the program?”

  Zembassi entered the command, and a portion of the asteroids that were red turned white again.

  “We can also dismiss those asteroids that went out of the ecliptic and came back down again,” said Zembassi. “Those are obviously feints as well.”

  “Maybe not,” said Mazer. “Those might be the important ones. Think of the logic. The Formics send them so we’ll assume they’re not important, so we’ll dismiss them as non-threatening. Then they bring them back in when they think we’re not looking.”

  “Sounds deceptive to me,” said Li.

  “But the Formics will use deception on top of deception,” said Bingwen. “Let’s hold that thought and consider the last group. Asteroids that are coalescing into a group. Of these asteroids, the most valuable asteroid is the one that has to travel the least distance because it will be exposed to the enemy for the least amount of time. The Hive Queen would make the other asteroids come to it. To protect it.”

  “Now we’re anthropomorphizing a rock,” said Zembassi. “An asteroid can’t protect anything. It’s a rock.”

  “For the sake of our argument,” said Bingwen.

  “Yes, but the entire argument is based on the assumption that some asteroids are more valuable than others,” said Zembassi. “We don’t know if that’s true.”

  “That’s warfare,” said Bingwen. “Picking the targets that matter the most and not wasting time on targets that inflict little damage to the enemy. And even if we’re wrong, if the asteroids are all equal, we will have lost nothing by taking out one we think might be more valuable than the others.”

  “Except the time it takes to reach it,” said Li.

  “Consider that last group again,” said Bingwen. “Again, all we’re doing is guessing with confidence. Right? Looking for a pattern within the deception.”

  “Go on,” said Zembassi.

  “Let’s assume we’re right about the last group,” said Bingwen. “That the one asteroid in the group that travels the least distance to reach the group is the most valuable. And let’s also assume that Mazer is right, that the asteroids that go in and out of the ecliptic might also be valuable. How many of the asteroids meet both of those requirements, I wonder. In other words, how many asteroids went out of the ecliptic and returned to join a group and were also the asteroid in that group that traveled the least distance to join it?”

  “Deception on top of deception,” said Li.

  “I’m completely confused,” said Zembassi.

  Bingwen stepped to the starchart. “May I?”

  “Be my guest,” said Zembassi, stepping away from the holotable.

  Bingwen reached into the holofield and started entering code. “We first have to assume that every asteroid is on its ultimate trajectory,” said Bingwen. “That may not be true, but we can only work with the data we have. So first we need to speed up time here and see if there are any more groups that will eventually form in the future based on these trajectories.”

  The red dots in the starchart began to move faster.

  “Then we set the parameters we outlined and see if any asteroids meet them,” said Bingwen.

  The dots all disappeared except for twelve red dots.

  “Twelve,” said Li. “What does that mean?”

  “It may mean nothing,” said Zembassi. “We’re playing guessing games here.”

  “It may mean a lot,” said Mazer. “Which of those asteroids is nearest to us?”

  “Castalia,” said Bingwen. “A peanut-shaped asteroid.”

  “How long would it take us to reach it?” asked Li.

  “Those aren’t our orders,” said Zembassi. “I called you here because our orders are to go to an asteroid already near our trajectory.”

  “An asteroid that may not be worth investigating,” said Mazer.

  “Just as Castalia may not be worth investigating,” said Zembassi. “We’re grasping at straws.”

  “We can reach it in under two months,” said Bingwen. “It’s remarkably close, all things considered.”

  Everyone turned to Zembassi, looking for an answer. He sighed and considered. “I called you here to give you orders, not to have you alter my orders. We could be chasing a ghost.”

  “Or hitting a high-priority target,” said Mazer.

  “And what am I supposed to tell the Strategos and the Polemarch? That a thirteen-year-old boy played an elaborate guessing game and chose Castalia?”

  “If they knew which thirteen-year-old they might not disagree with the idea,” said Li.

  “Actually, I’m only twelve,” said Bingwen. “And it wasn’t my suggestion. We all reached this conclusion together. Could it be totally wrong? Absolutely. We might be way off. But there are plenty of IF ships out there heading toward random asteroids to investigate them. We’d be the only one testing a theory.”

  Zembassi said nothing.

  “Would you like to consult with Rear Admiral Vaganov?” Bingwen asked. “I noticed he’s not present here.”

  “He’s not present because this is not his command,” said Zembassi. “It’s mine. He is a passenger on this vessel. Nothing more.”

  “I’m glad to hear you say that,” said Bingwen. “Because Vaganov would bury the idea. He wouldn’t even bring it to the Strategos and the Polemarch for fear that it might tarnish his reputation. Too risky. He’s more concerned about doing what’s right for him than in doing what’s right.”

  Zembassi turned to Li. “If I didn’t know any better, I’d say this boy was trying to manipulate me.”

  “If you know that I’m doing it,” said Bingwen, “and if what I say is true, it’s not manipulation. I’m only giving voice to what you’re already thinking. I’m twelve. I can get away with a little petulance. Also, if we deviate in our course, we’d delay getting Vaganov
to his destination. I suspect he wouldn’t be too pleased with that.”

  “That may be the best argument for going that I’ve heard yet,” said Zembassi. He scratched his chin, considered a moment, then turned to his assistant. “Lieutenant, open an ansible transmission with the Polemarch. If all of you will excuse me, I have a call to make. Bingwen, you stay. I can’t explain this nearly as well as you can.”

  CHAPTER 28

  Observer Ship

  Ansible transmission received at Turris Outpost, Kuiper Belt, 2118

  * * *

  STRATEGOS: You are a go. Godspeed. Don’t come back until the Wicked Witch is dead.

  Imala stood anchored to the floor at the docking hatch, watching the Gagak approach the IF outpost. After four months of travel she was eager to stretch her legs a little and take a break from the cramped confines of the ship. Her hope was that the space station would have one of those new zero G showers, with hot water floating inside a tube. Or maybe a large cafeteria with a variety of foods to choose from. After three weeks of rationed black beans and rice she was ready for a change.

  But one look at the outpost told her she was in for a disappointment. The outpost was no bigger than the ship, and maybe even slightly smaller. If it was comfort she wanted, she wouldn’t find it here.

  “You notice anything strange about this space station?” Victor said. He was anchored to the floor beside her, looking out the porthole.

  “Other than its size, you mean?” said Imala.

  “It doesn’t have any transmitters,” said Victor. “No dishes, no receivers, no antennas. It’s just a box.”

  Imala hadn’t noticed that, but he was right. How did the station send and receive transmissions, especially this far out? “You would think their transmitters would be bigger than normal,” she said.

  “You would think,” Victor agreed.

  “What do we know about this place?” Imala asked.

  “Next to nothing. It’s not even on our starcharts. Had the IF not sent us the coordinates, we never would have known it existed.”

  Imala didn’t like that. They were going into this blind, without any idea of what the IF had in mind. The transmission they had received had promised that by coming here the IF could help keep the family safe. Imala had assumed that that meant the station would be a hub of sorts, with lots of ship traffic coming and going. Perhaps the station would provide an escort for them as they headed back toward Luna. Or perhaps the IF would offload the family onto a large transport with other miners seeking refuge. Or … something. But this, how was this tiny box of a station going to keep them safe? There were no ships docked here. And no ships in the vicinity heading this way either. This wasn’t a hub; it was a dead end.

  “I’m starting to get an odd feeling about this,” said Victor.

  “You and me both,” said Imala.

  The Gagak rotated and finished its approach, then docking tubes from the outpost extended and locked into place. There was a buzzer and then the all-clear light came on. Imala opened the hatch, and a young officer in an IF uniform greeted them with a salute.

  “Captain Bootstamp, Ensign Delgado, I am Captain Mangold. Welcome to Turris.”

  He was American, probably in his mid-thirties, young to be running an outpost.

  “Thank you,” Imala asked. “How does this work exactly? Do I invite you aboard our ship, or do we board you?”

  “I would be honored to meet with you both in the captain’s office aboard the station. There is much we need to discuss.”

  “If we’re discussing the welfare of my crew,” said Imala, “I would appreciate it if two of my advisers could join us. Arjuna, the former captain of this vessel and patriarch of the Somalis on board, and Rena Delgado, our second in command.”

  “I would be honored to receive all of you,” said Mangold. “The office is not very large, I’m afraid. It will be crowded with five people, but we can manage.”

  Victor retrieved Rena and Arjuna, and the five of them made their way through the docking tube and onto the station. To Imala’s surprise there were not many IF crewmembers here. She counted only three as she followed Mangold to his office. Each of them was very young, barely old enough to enlist.

  The interior of the station was a sight to behold. Everything was new and immaculate, as if the station had only been built recently and equipped with the latest tech. It made the Gagak look like a dinosaur.

  “We noticed that there aren’t any laserline transmitters or receivers on the station’s exterior,” said Imala. “How do you communicate with the IF?”

  “A good question,” said Mangold. “We’ll get to that momentarily.” He opened the door to his office and motioned them inside.

  The five of them filed in and gathered around the holotable, anchoring their feet to the floor. Mangold positioned himself at the head of the table and smiled pleasantly. “Before we begin, there is a bit of business to take care of. The International Fleet is prepared to buy your ship.”

  A document appeared in the air above the holotable in front of Arjuna.

  “This contract outlines the particulars of our offer,” said Mangold. “Essentially the International Fleet will purchase the Gagak for sixty thousand credits plus we will provide safe passage for you and your crew to an IF station in the Asteroid Belt.”

  “The Gagak isn’t for sale,” said Arjuna. “And especially not for a mere sixty thousand credits. She’s worth three or four times that, easy.”

  “Giving your family safe passage to the Belt aboard an IF transport is a huge expense,” said Mangold. “You must take that into consideration as well.”

  “We can fly to the Belt ourselves,” said Arjuna. “What is this? We were told that by coming here the IF would protect our family.”

  “That is precisely what I am attempting to do,” said Mangold. “But the human race is at war. My first responsibility is the preservation of our species. For that, the IF needs your ship.”

  “It’s not for sale,” said Arjuna. “And you owe us four months of fuel and supplies for bringing us here under false pretenses.”

  “I encourage you to read the contract,” said Mangold. “I think you’ll find it very generous. If you refuse to sell us the ship, we will exercise our right to seize it.”

  Arjuna was furious. “You little bastard. You commandeer our ship, you send us on a military mission, you endanger our families, and now after all of that, you have the gall to threaten to seize my ship? What gives you the right to—”

  “The Hegemon,” said Mangold. “The supreme ruler of Earth. Appointed by the United Nations and ratified by every voting government on Earth. He gives me the right. As does the Polemarch and the Strategos. I assure you, sir, I am acting within my authority.”

  “Let’s calm down for a minute,” said Imala. “We’re all a little wound up here, and that’s not going to help.” She turned to Mangold. “What you’re offering, Captain, is not what we were led to believe. From our perspective this whole affair seems rather deceptive. The Gagak is our home. What could the IF want with it that it can’t get from some other ship of the Fleet?”

  “There’s something out in deep space,” said Victor.

  Everyone turned to him.

  “That’s it, isn’t it?” said Victor. “There’s no other explanation here. You need to investigate something out in deep space, and we’re the closest ship. Every other vessel of the IF has been mobilized in the assault on the warships or in destroying seized asteroids. So they’ve all gone inward. Now there aren’t any IF warships even remotely close to this sector. That’s why you had us come out here, toward the fringe of the solar system instead of having us head inward, because you intend to take the ship out into space.”

  Mangold didn’t respond.

  “Is that true?” Imala asked him.

  “I am not at liberty to say,” said Mangold, “not until I know I have your full cooperation.”

  “That’s all the confirmation we need,” said Rena
. “What is out there exactly?”

  “I am not at liberty to say,” said Mangold.

  “Well you don’t have our full cooperation,” said Arjuna. “You don’t have even part of it. Come on, everyone. This conversation is over.” He unhooked his feet from the floor and moved for the door.

  “And where will you go?” said Mangold. “You need fuel. And you probably need supplies as well. Food almost certainly, but other supplies, too. Clothing, medical supplies. We are prepared to provide you with all of these things if you cooperate. You can’t leave. Not without our help.”

  It was true. The ship was nearly empty of everything. They had fuel in the reserve tanks, but it wasn’t enough to accelerate them fast enough to reach a destination before they ran out of food. They either restocked here or they died out in the Black.

  “So that’s how this works?” said Rena. “You essentially hijack us and our ship and force us to comply?”

  “There is a third option,” said Mangold. “You can keep ownership of your vessel if you relinquish temporary control of it to me and my crew. I will take Captain Bootstamp with me since she is familiar with the ship. The rest of you will remain here, where you will be recovered in five months’ time by an IF transport and carried to the Belt. I think that’s the best offer I can give you.”

  Arjuna scoffed. “So you’ll take my ship and not pay me? How incredibly generous of you.”

  “You’re welcome to join us,” said Captain Mangold. “In fact, I would prefer to have you. You would need to enlist with the International Fleet and operate under my authority, but I would be delighted to have your assistance.”

  “How kind of you to let me be a passenger on my own ship,” said Arjuna.

  “What about me?” said Rena. “Would you take me?”

  Arjuna and Victor turned to her, surprised.

  “And before any of you say I’m too old to join the IF,” said Rena, “you should know that I’m the best navigator you’ve got. Every crewmember I’ve seen on this outpost barely looks old enough to vote. I’m certainly more experienced and qualified to fly the Gagak than they are.”