Book of Odds

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Book of Odds Page 11

by Amram Shapiro


  Where Babies Are Born

  1 in 1.01 in a hospital

  1 in 139 at home

  1 in 339 in a freestanding birthing center

  SOURCE: JA Martin, BE Hamilton, SJ Ventura, MJK Osterman, S Kirmeyer, TJ Mathews, EC Wilson, “Births: Final Data for 2009,” National Vital Statistics Reports 60(1), November 3, 2011.

  State %

  Alabama 36

  Alaska 24

  Arizona 27

  Arkansas 35

  California 33

  Colorado 26

  Connecticut 36

  Delaware 36

  District of Columbia 32

  Florida 38

  Georgia 34

  Hawaii 27

  Idaho 24

  Illinois 31

  Indiana 31

  Iowa 30

  Kansas 30

  Kentucky 36

  Louisiana 45

  Maine 30

  Maryland 33

  Massachusetts 33

  Michigan 32

  Minnesota 27

  Mississippi 38

  Missouri 32

  Montana 30

  Nebraska 32

  Nevada 34

  New Hampshire 31

  New Jersey 39

  New Mexico 23

  New York 35

  North Carolina 31

  North Dakota 28

  Ohio 31

  Oklahoma 35

  Oregon 29

  Pennsylvania 32

  Rhode Island 33

  South Carolina 35

  South Dakota 23

  Tennessee 34

  Texas 35

  Utah 23

  Vermont 28

  Virginia 34

  Washington 29

  West Virginia 36

  Wisconsin 26

  Wyoming 28

  When’s the Baby Coming?

  Well, It Depends

  C–Section vs. Vaginal Birth by Day of Week

  The odds a vaginal birth will occur on a Sunday are 1 in 9.5.

  The odds a vaginal birth will occur on a Monday are 1 in 6.8.

  The odds a vaginal birth will occur on a Tuesday are 1 in 6.2.

  The odds a vaginal birth will occur on a Wednesday are 1 in 6.2.

  The odds a vaginal birth will occur on a Thursday are 1 in 6.3.

  The odds a vaginal birth will occur on a Friday are 1 in 6.7.

  The odds a vaginal birth will occur on a Saturday are 1 in 8.5.

  The odds a Cesarean birth will occur on a Sunday are 1 in 15.1.

  The odds a Cesarean birth will occur on a Monday are 1 in 6.1.

  The odds a Cesarean birth will occur on a Tuesday are 1 in 5.6.

  The odds a Cesarean birth will occur on a Wednesday are 1 in 5.8.

  The odds a Cesarean birth will occur on a Thursday are 1 in 5.9.

  The odds a Cesarean birth will occur on a Friday are 1 in 5.9.

  The odds a Cesarean birth will occur on a Saturday are 1 in 12.7.

  SOURCE: Book of Odds estimate based on JA Martin, BE Hamilton, SJ Ventura, MJK Osterman, S Kirmeyer, TJ Mathews, EC Wilson, “Births: Final Data for 2009,” National Vital Statistics Reports 60(1), November 3, 2011.

  A Good Start in Life

  The odds a baby will have an excellent five-minute Apgar score (9 or 10): 1 in 1.1

  SOURCE: JA Martin, BE Hamilton, PD Sutton, SJ Ventura, TJ Mathews, MJK Osterman, “Births: Final Data for 2008,” National Vital Statistics Reports 59(1), December 2010.

  Grab the Forceps

  The odds a baby will be breech or malpresented at birth: 1 in 19

  SOURCE: JA Martin, BE Hamilton, SJ Ventura, MJK Osterman, S Kirmeyer, TJ Mathews, EC Wilson, “Births: Final Data for 2009,” National Vital Statistics Reports 60(1), November 3, 2011.

  The odds a woman who gives birth will receive an epidural or spinal anesthesia during labor: 1 in 1.7

  SOURCE: MJK Osterman, JA Martin, F Menacker, “Expanded Health Data from the New Birth Certificate, 2006,” National Vital Statistics Reports 58(5), October 28, 2009.

  More Babies Are Too Slow than Too Fast

  The odds a woman who gives birth will have labor induced: 1 in 4.3

  The odds a woman who gives birth will have precipitous labor: 1 in 42.4

  SOURCE: JA Martin, BE Hamilton, SJ Ventura, MJK Osterman, S Kirmeyer, TJ Mathews, EC Wilson, “Births: Final Data for 2009,” National Vital Statistics Reports 60(1), November 3, 2011.

  The odds a woman who gives birth will breast-feed her child: 1 in 1.5

  SOURCE: Health, United States, 2006: With Chartbook on Trends in the Health of Americans, Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics, 2006.

  Birth Weights

  The odds a baby will have a birth weight of less than 1.1 pounds are 1 in 652.

  The odds a baby will have a birth weight of 1.1–2.2 pounds are 1 in 182.

  The odds a baby will have a birth weight of 2.2–3.3 pounds are 1 in 134.

  The odds a baby will have a birth weight of 3.3–4.4 pounds are 1 in 63.

  The odds a baby will have a birth weight of 4.4–5.5 pounds are 1 in 19.6.

  The odds a baby will have a birth weight of 5.5–6.6 pounds are 1 in 5.4.

  The odds a baby will have a birth weight of 6.6–7.7 pounds are 1 in 2.6.

  The odds a baby will have a birth weight of 7.7–8.8 pounds are 1 in 3.8.

  The odds a baby will have a birth weight of 8.8–9.9 pounds are 1 in 15.2.

  The odds a baby will have a birth weight of 9.9–11 pounds are 1 in 109.

  The odds a baby will have a birth weight of 11 or more pounds are 1 in 970.

  SOURCE: JA Martin, BE Hamilton, SJ Ventura, MJK Osterman, S Kirmeyer, TJ Mathews, EC Wilson, “Births: Final Data for 2009,” National Vital Statistics Reports 60(1), November 3, 2011.

  The Odds a Woman Will Breast-Feed for Longer than Three Months, by Age of Mother (First Birth)

  All ages: 1 in 2.1

  Younger than 20 1 in 3.1

  20–24 1 in 2.4

  25–29 1 in 2.2

  30–44 1 in 1.6

  SOURCE: Health, United States, 2006: With Chartbook on Trends in the Health of Americans, Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics, 2006.

  The odds a baby born to a woman 20–24 will have Down syndrome: 1 in 3,650

  The odds for a baby born to a woman 40–54: 1 in 295

  SOURCE: JA Martin, BE Hamilton, SJ Ventura, MJK Osterman, S Kirmeyer, TJ Mathews, EC Wilson, “Births: Final Data for 2009,” National Vital Statistics Reports 60(1), November 3, 2011.

  The odds a baby born to a mother younger than 15 will have a very low birth weight: 1 in 8.1

  The odds a baby born to a mother 25–29 will have a very low birth weight: 1 in 13.5

  SOURCE: JA Martin, BE Hamilton, SJ Ventura, MJK Osterman, S Kirmeyer, TJ Mathews, EC Wilson, “Births: Final Data for 2009,” National Vital Statistics Reports 60(1), November 3, 2011.

  Birth Defects

  The odds at birth a baby will have:

  Klinefelter’s syndrome: 1 in 1,085

  Cleft lip or palate: 1 in 1,388

  An opening or separation in the abdominal wall: 1 in 2,534

  Turner syndrome: 1 in 2,710

  Meningomyelocele or spina bifida: 1 in 5,582

  Vaginal agenesis: 1 in 5,917

  Congenital adrenal hyperplasia: 1 in 7,500

  Anencephaly: 1 in 8,864

  Androgen insensitivity syndrome: 1 in 13,160

  Partial androgen insensitivity syndrome: 1 in 131,600

  SOURCES: JA Martin, BE Hamilton, SJ Ventura, MJK Osterman, S Kirmeyer, TJ Mathews, EC Wilson, “Births: Final Data for 2009,” National Vital Statistics Reports 60(1), November 3, 2011. M Blackless, A Charuvastra, A Derryck, A Fausto-Sterling, K Lauzanne, E Lee, “How Sexually Dimorphic Are We?,” American Journal of Human Biology 12(2), March 15, 2000: 151–166. DP Merke, SR Bomstein, “Congenital Adrenal Hyperplasia,” Lancet 365(9477), June 18, 2005: 2125–2136.

  When Tragedy Strike
s

  The odds a baby will not survive infancy: 1 in 149

  SOURCE: SL Murphy, J Xu, KD Kochanek, “Deaths: Preliminary Data for 2010,” National Vital Statistics Report 60(4), January 11, 2012.

  …But Infant Survival Today Is More Likely than in the Past

  The odds a baby will not survive infancy are 1 in 34.3 (1950).

  The odds a baby will not survive infancy are 1 in 38.5 (1960).

  The odds a baby will not survive infancy are 1 in 50 (1970).

  The odds a baby will not survive infancy are 1 in 79.4 (1980).

  The odds a baby will not survive infancy are 1 in 84 (1981).

  The odds a baby will not survive infancy are 1 in 87 (1982).

  The odds a baby will not survive infancy are 1 in 89.3 (1983).

  The odds a baby will not survive infancy are 1 in 92.6 (1984).

  The odds a baby will not survive infancy are 1 in 94.3 (1985).

  The odds a baby will not survive infancy are 1 in 96.2 (1986).

  The odds a baby will not survive infancy are 1 in 99 (1987).

  The odds a baby will not survive infancy are 1 in 100 (1988).

  The odds a baby will not survive infancy are 1 in 102 (1989).

  The odds a baby will not survive infancy are 1 in 109 (1990).

  The odds a baby will not survive infancy are 1 in 112 (1991).

  The odds a baby will not survive infancy are 1 in 118 (1992).

  The odds a baby will not survive infancy are 1 in 119 (1993).

  The odds a baby will not survive infancy are 1 in 125 (1994).

  The odds a baby will not survive infancy are 1 in 132 (1995).

  The odds a baby will not survive infancy are 1 in 137 (1996).

  The odds a baby will not survive infancy are 1 in 139 (1997).

  The odds a baby will not survive infancy are 1 in 139 (1998).

  The odds a baby will not survive infancy are 1 in 141 (1999).

  The odds a baby will not survive infancy are 1 in 145 (2000).

  The odds a baby will not survive infancy are 1 in 147 (2001).

  The odds a baby will not survive infancy are 1 in 143 (2002).

  The odds a baby will not survive infancy are 1 in 145 (2003).

  The odds a baby will not survive infancy are 1 in 147 (2004).

  The odds a baby will not survive infancy are 1 in 145 (2005).

  The odds a baby will not survive infancy are 1 in 149 (2006).

  The odds a baby will not survive infancy are 1 in 147 (2007).

  The odds a baby will not survive infancy are 1 in 152 (2008).

  The odds a baby will not survive infancy are 1 in 156 (2009).

  SOURCES: Health, United States, 2009: With Chartbook on Trends in the Health of Americans, Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics, 2010. Health, United States, 2011: With Chartbook on Trends in the Health of Americans, Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics, May 2012. SL Murphy, J Xu, KD Kochanek, “Deaths: Preliminary Data for 2010,” National Vital Statistics Reports 60(4), January 11, 2012.

  SIDS: Has My Baby Stopped Breathing?

  There can’t be too many parents in the world who haven’t had that terrible thought cross their minds. Annually 1 in 1,741 babies dies of sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS). Thankfully, the rate of SIDS has decreased by more than 50% since 1994, when the “Back to Sleep” campaign educated parents on the critical importance of placing infants on their backs at bedtime. Still, about 2,500 babies die of SIDS each year in the United States.

  SOURCES: Book of Odds estimate based on Wonder Database Compressed Mortality File, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1999–2006 data. National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, Back to Sleep public education campaign.

  Dying from Complications of Pregnancy or Childbirth

  The odds a woman will die as a result of her pregnancy in a year: 1 in 150,721

  The odds both mother and baby will die: 1 in 2,217,758

  SOURCE: Book of Odds estimate based on Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Wonder Database Compressed Mortality File, 1999–2006 data.

  The Odds a Baby Will Die in Infancy Due to:

  Unintentional injury: 1 in 3,732

  Maternal complications of pregnancy: 1 in 1,339

  Disorders related to prematurity and low birth weight: 1 in 788

  SOURCE: Book of Odds estimate based on Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Wonder Database Compressed Mortality File, 1999–2006 data.

  Racial Disparities

  The odds a baby born to a white mother will not survive infancy 1 in 193

  The odds a baby born to a black mother will not survive infancy 1 in 86

  SOURCE: SL Murphy, J Xu, KD Kochanek, “Deaths: Preliminary Data for 2010,” National Vital Statistics Reports 60(4), January 11, 2012.

  GENDER WARS

  1 in 7.1 new mothers will suffer from postpartum depression. 1 in 10 new fathers will experience it as well—the same odds that a person is left-handed.

  SOURCES: JF Paulson, S Dauber, JA Leifermann, “Individual and Combined Effects of Postpartum Depression in Mothers and Fathers on Parenting Behavior,” Pediatrics 118(2), August 31, 2006:12. AN Gilbert, CJ Wysocki, “Hand Preference and Age in the United States,” Neuropsychologia (30), 1992: 601–608.

  Adoption

  In the United States, the odds a child is adopted are 1 in 41.4

  The odds a family with children includes adopted children are 1 in 27. Most (75%) children adopted in the States are born here. The odds an adopted child will be adopted through a domestic private adoption are 1 in 2.6. The odds an adopted child will be adopted by a relative are 1 in 6.5.

  SOURCES: S Vandivere, K Malm, L Radel, Adoption USA: A Chartbook Based on the 2007 National Survey of Adoptive Parents, Washington, D.C.: US Department of Health and Human Services, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation, 2009. US Census Bureau, “Adopted Children and Stepchildren: 2000,” Census 2000 Special Reports, October 2003.

  ODDS COUPLE: 1 in 1.5

  The odds an employed female 15–44 who gave birth in the past five years took maternity leave, the same odds that . . .

  a child lives with 2 married parents.

  SOURCES: Book of Odds estimate based on Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Survey of Family Growth 2006–2008, Public Use Data Files. US Census Bureau, America’s Families and Living Arrangements: 2009, http://www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/hh-fam/cps2009.html.

  GENDER WARS

  The Kids Are All Right

  The odds a married different-sex couple will raise a child: 1 in 2.3

  The odds an unmarried different-sex couple will raise a child: 1 in 2.3

  The odds a married same-sex male couple will raise a child: 1 in 3

  The odds an unmarried same-sex male couple will raise a child: 1 in 13.5

  The odds a married same-sex female couple will raise a child: 1 in 3.6

  The odds an unmarried same-sex female couple will raise a child: 1 in 3.9

  SOURCE: GJ Gates, Same-Sex Spouses and Unmarried Partners in the American Community Survey, 2008, Williams Institute, UCLA, October 2009.

  “Bris—Sunday 11 a.m. Bring Wine”

  The odds a newborn boy will be circumcised: 1 in 1.7

  SOURCE: CJ DeFrances, KA Cullen, LJ Kozak, “National Hospital Discharge Survey: 2005 Annual Summary with Detailed Diagnosis and Procedure Data,” Vital Health Statistics Reports 13(165), 2007.

  ODDS COUPLE

  All by Myself

  The odds an adult is an only child: 1 in 20.8

  The odds a person 65–69 has never been married: 1 in 20.9

  SOURCES: JA Davis, TW Smith, PV Marsden, General Social Surveys, 1972–2008 [CUMULATIVE FILE] [Computer file] ICPSR04697 v. 1., Chicago: National Opinion Research Center [producer], 2009. Storrs, CT: Roper Center for Public Opinion Research, University of Connecticut/Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [di
stributors]. US Census Bureau, America’s Families and Living Arrangements: 2009, http://www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/hh-fam/cps2009.html.

  The Angelina Jolie and Brad Pitt Household Book of Odds

  The odds a woman 18–29 has adopted a child: 1 in 500

  The odds an adopted child is foreign-born: 1 in 4; vs. 1 in 1.3 an adopted child is native-born

  The odds a household with children contains both biological and adopted children: 1 in 56.3

  The odds of being a movie star: 1 in 1,190,000

  The odds a Best Actress Oscar nominee has changed her name: 1 in 3

  The odds a dollar spent at the box office will be for a movie with Angelina Jolie: 1 in 86.1

  The odds a movie with Angelina Jolie will earn $100,000,000 or more in ticket sales: 1 in 4.5

  The odds a movie with Angelina Jolie will earn $10,000,000–$100,000,000 in ticket sales: 1 in 2.5

  The odds a movie with Angelina Jolie will earn less than 10,000,000 in ticket sales: 1 in 2.7

  The odds a woman is named Angelina: 1 in 2,703

  The odds a man is named Brad: 1 in 1,370

  The odds a dollar spent at the box office will be for a movie with Brad Pitt: 1 in 73.4

  The odds a movie with Brad Pitt will earn $100,000,000 or more in ticket sales: 1 in 4

  The odds a movie with Brad Pitt will earn $10,000,000–$100,000,000 in ticket sales: 1 in 1.8

  The odds a movie with Brad Pitt will earn less than $10,000,000 in ticket sales: 1 in 5.1

  The odds a child 6–11 is adopted: 1 in 38.1

  The odds a child younger than 5 is adopted: 1 in 51.7

  The odds an adopted infant is a girl: 1 in 1.9

  The odds a household with adopted children contains at least 3 adopted children: 1 in 30

  The odds a foreign-born adopted child is from Vietnam: 1 in 46.4

 

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