The decline of Mainline Protestantism has been dramatic, probably representing the biggest change in the American religious landscape in the past century. Just thirty years ago, Mainline Protestants were the largest religious group in the United States, and now they are the fourth, behind Evangelicals, Catholics, and the religiously unaffiliated. What happened? We’ve already covered two explanations—a reaction to Christianity being seen as politically conservative and differential fertility rates. In addition, there are two other popular explanations.
One explanation holds that Mainline Protestantism has decreased because it is not strict enough and is, ironically, too accommodating. Strict religions demand more time, money, and commitment from their members, and this fact results in members finding more meaning in their faith. Perhaps counterintuitively, religions that make it easy for their members also provide fewer benefits and garner less commitment. Mainline Protestants, being relatively lenient in what they ask of their members, have consequently lost members.[21]
Another explanation comes from church growth literature. Every year the American population grows. This means that if a religious group wants to keep pace, they need to provide increasingly more opportunities for people to attend their services. It’s estimated that for a Christian denomination not to lose ground, it must yearly plant one new church for every 100 existing churches. Whereas evangelical groups have emphasized church planting, most mainline churches have not, and so there are not increased opportunities for people to attend them. In short, the number of Americans has grown every year but the number of seats in mainline churches has not.[22]
Turning to Historically Black denominations, one explanation for their continuance points to the unique functions they provide for their members. Among these functions, Black churches provide leadership opportunities for their members that may not be available outside of the church. Some of the best known African-American politicians and leaders have been closely affiliated with a Christian church, people such as Martin Luther King Jr., Jesse Jackson, and Al Sharpton. Black churches also provide important social services such as food, clothing, and housing for their members in need.[23]
The percentage of Catholic Americans has remained quite steady over the years. This could be interpreted as the Catholic Church having a stable membership, but in fact these numbers disguise a considerable amount of change among Catholics. Notably, a large number of American-born Catholics have left their religion; in fact, an estimated 10% of all Americans are former Catholics.[24] Why, then, hasn’t the percentage of Catholics plummeted? Immigration. A disproportionate number of immigrants to the United States are Catholic, most from Hispanic countries. Whereas about 21% of native-born Americans are Catholic, 46% of immigrants are Catholic.[25] As a result, almost one-quarter of American Catholics are foreign-born, compared to only 6% of Protestants.[26] The substantial immigration of Catholics has balanced the continued loss of domestically born Catholics, producing steady overall numbers of Catholics in the country.
Regarding other religions, membership in non-Christian religions has more than doubled since the early 1970s, going from about 4% of the national population to 8%. Despite this growth, the overall share of other religions is relatively small. As shown earlier, in Figure 2.1, Mormons and Jews constitute less than 2% of the nation’s population, and Buddhists, Hindus, and Muslims less than 1%.
Many people overestimate the size of these other religions. One study concluded that “both the size of these [non-Christian] groups and their growth has often been exaggerated.”[27] This misperception is evidenced in a 2008 Newsweek poll.[28] It asked the question: “The vast majority of Americans are Christians. Which of the following is the largest group of non-Christians in the United States: Jews, Muslims, Buddhists, or the unaffiliated?” The correct answer, of course, is “unaffiliated” by almost a 10 to 1 margin, but barely a third of the respondents got it correct. Here are the results:
25% of the respondents said Jews
20% said Muslims
4% said Buddhists
38% said the unaffiliated
13% said they didn’t know
The growth of other religions has varied by religion. Islam and Hinduism have grown largely due to immigration, since two-thirds of Muslims in America are immigrants, as are a full 80% of Hindus. In contrast, most Buddhists are U.S.-born, either being born into a Buddhist family or having converted as an adult.[29]
A Closer Look at the Unaffiliated
Finally, let’s examine the religiously unaffiliated, for there is a lot of misconception about them. Both media presentations and popular discussions of this group routinely, and erroneously, identify them as all atheists, agnostics, secular humanists, or other unbelievers. This is certainly true of some of the unaffiliated, but many of them believe in God yet choose not to affiliate with a given religion.
As an example of this confusion, in 2009, The New York Times published an article about atheists in the United States.[30] They printed a map that pulled data from the American Religious Identification Survey on the number of religiously unaffiliated. The caption on the map, however, equated having no religious affiliation with being an atheist. The map was titled “Fewer Christians, More Atheists in 2008,” and below this title was written, “Since 1990, the percentage of Americans identifying themselves as Christians has decreased to 77% from 86%. Atheists, however, have gained ground in every state; 15% of Americans now identify themselves as nonbelievers.”
So who are the religiously unaffiliated? It turns out that many of them are religious. As shown in Figure 2.4, it is true that they rarely attend religious services—only 8% of them attend even monthly. However, the majority (56%) of them believe in God. Another 22% believe in a higher power. Only 8% of the religiously unaffiliated actually do not believe in God (i.e., are atheists), and another 14% believe there is no way to know for sure if there is a God (i.e., agnosticism). Over half (55%) believe that the Bible is either the literal or inspired Word of God, whereas 41% view it as a book of fables. Forty-nine percent pray daily or weekly and only 25% never pray. About half view themselves as religious to some degree, and three-fourths view themselves as spiritual.[31]
It could be that the increase in the number of religiously unaffiliated does not reflect a change in Americans’ beliefs and values as much as it does a new willingness and openness to not identify with a religion. In the past there may have been enough stigma associated with being unaffiliated that some people would affiliate with a religion more out of custom or expectation.[32] As our society has become more accepting of the irreligious, perhaps more people are willing to step out on their own, not identifying with an organized religion even if they remain religious at a personal level. Our society is more accepting of those who don’t affiliate, whether they are at some level “believers” or not. As stated in the American Religious Identification Survey report (page 7), “The historic reluctance of Americans to self-identify as [atheists and agnostics] or use these terms seems to have diminished.”
Figure 2.4: What Do the Religiously Unaffiliated Believe?
As a way of examining this issue, I have plotted levels of belief in God, as recorded in the General Social Survey. This question asks respondents: “Which statement comes closest to expressing what you believe about God?” and the possible statements reflect atheism, agnosticism, believing in a higher power, or believing in God with varying levels of certainty or doubt. Unfortunately, this question has been collected only five times by the GSS, starting in 1988, but that should be enough to observe trends. As shown in Figure 2.5, theological beliefs about God have remained fairly steady over the past twenty years. There is some decline in believing in God, and a corresponding increase in the other three forms of belief, but the magnitude of these changes is much less than the increased number of religiously unaffiliated. This observation reinforces the idea that this increase often reflects a change in status in regard to the church, not so much in terms of personal religious beliefs.<
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The discussion of religious groups so far has examined them in terms of their percentage of the population. This makes sense because each year the population of the United States grows, and using percentages allows us to compare current and previous levels of affiliation. Nonetheless, this focus on percentages can obscure the point that a religious group can grow in absolute numbers while remaining stable or even declining in terms of percentages.
In terms of the number of American adults in various religious groups, several groups have had considerable growth in recent decades.[33] Since 1972, Evangelical Christians have more than doubled in number, going from about 25 million adults to almost 60 million. Likewise, the number of Catholics, religiously unaffiliated, and members of other religions grew considerably. The number of Black Protestants and Jews remained mostly stable, and the number of Mainline Protestants dropped, from over 40 million to less than 35 million.
Figure 2.5: Americans’ Beliefs About God
Religious Affiliation Since 1910—General Social Survey
The data presented so far starts in the early 1970s. These are the most accurate data available, and they allow us to track changes over the last several decades, but wouldn’t it be interesting to know about Americans’ religious behavior before that? Well, tucked away in the General Social Survey is an intriguing question: “In what religion were you raised?” On one hand, this question is probably less accurate than asking people about their current religious affiliation, for it requires people to remember back to their youth. On the other hand, it’s not unreasonable to assume that most people can accurately answer it, given the significance of one’s religious upbringing. For example, I can answer the question with certainty. (I was raised in the Catholic Church, by the way). This question gives us data stretching back to the early 1900s since some of the respondents were already in their sixties and seventies when they were interviewed in the 1970s.[34]
What are the long-term trends? Evangelical Christianity has held steady at around 25% of the population. Mainline Christianity has declined steadily since the early 1900s—not just in the last forty years. Black Protestants grew through the first half of the century, and then stabilized at about 10% thereafter. Catholics grew through the 1970s, after which they have leveled off. Other religions have fluctuated around 6% of the population with a slow, continuous increase over time. The religiously unaffiliated were rare before the 1970s, after which they have increased each decade.
Religious Beliefs and Practices Since 1935—Gallup Data
Another way of looking at religion in America, in addition to religious affiliation, is to look at the religious beliefs of Americans as a whole. The well-known Gallup organization conducted some of the very first national surveys, and George Gallup himself had an interest in religion; therefore, they provide data about religion in the United States for the last seventy years or so.[35] These data do not provide the in-depth, detailed information that we might like, but they do describe long-term trends of religion during the twentieth century. Three of the questions that Gallup asks most often include: “Are you a member of a church?” “Did you attend church last week?” and “Do you believe in God?”[36]
Figure 2.6 presents the Gallup data. The first question is with regard to belief in God, and while it has decreased a bit over the decades, the percentage of Americans who believe in God has remained remarkably high—over 90% of Americans have believed and continue to believe in some form of God. In reference to this continued high level of belief in God, one researcher commented that “this stability [of belief in God] is all the more remarkable in light of the dramatic social, economic, and political changes over the past half-century.”[37] As we’ll see in a later chapter, people’s understanding of the nature of God and how certain they are that God exists has changed over the decades, but the stability of belief in God is, well, remarkable. The second question asks if Americans are members of a church, and it has shown more change. In the 1940s, about 75% of Americans reported being church members, and now the number is down to almost 60%. The third question asks about church attendance. Reported attendance rates increased in the 1940s and 1950s, and they have been mostly stable since then, with a little over 40% of Americans reporting that they attended church in the prior week. As I’ll discuss in a later chapter, there is controversy among sociologists as to whether people overstate how often they go to church on survey questions. As such, the actual last-week attendance rates might be somewhat lower than shown in Figure 2.6. However, assuming that any over-reporting has been about the same each decade, then the attendance data presented here is accurate regarding year-to-year change or stability.
Figure 2.6: Religious Trends since 1935
Religious Adherence Since 1776—Census and Church Membership Rolls
Let’s go back even further in American history to the founding of our country. It’s my impression that many Christians today perceive the colonial era as a golden age of Christianity—when great men such as George Washington and Thomas Jefferson founded a Christian country and the common folk followed God with reverence and humility. In fact, a recent survey found that three-fourths of conservative Christians believe that the United States was founded as a Christian nation.[38] Politically conservative Christians routinely hold up our Founding Fathers as the religious model for today. Reflecting this, several Christian ministries have been established to advance the significance of early-American Christianity for today’s world.[39] One of them, Reclaiming America for Christ, has expressed this viewpoint in its mission statement:
Our Mission is to educate our pastors, legislators, educators, students and all citizens as to the truth about America’s Christian Heritage and the role of fundamental, biblical Christianity in the establishment and function of our legal, legislative and educational systems; and to work towards the successful reestablishment of these values in our society today.[40]
If we were to plot the history of American Christianity as it is sometimes talked about in Christian circles, we might identify three supposed phases: from the Revolution through perhaps the 1950s, we were a strong, Christian country; then in the 1960s, the country started its slide down into secular godlessness; and at the present moment we’re facing a crisis. Christianity might plummet to extinction in the near future. Figure 2.7 illustrates what this scenario might look like if we put it into a graph.
Figure 2.7: Hypothetical Religious Adherence Rates in U.S. History
What has really happened in American history? In a perfect world, we would have Ye Olde General Survey dating back 200 years to give us precise data on Americans’ beliefs and affiliations throughout history. While we don’t have nationally representative surveys from back then, that doesn’t mean we have no data. At the time of the Revolution, various denominations kept detailed statistics about their membership. From 1850 to 1936, the United States Census Bureau collected statistical data about church bodies. They stopped, by the way, after World War II when members of the Jewish community expressed understandable fears that enumerating the Jewish presence in the United States might further inflame anti-Semitism.[41] Since World War II, various agencies and organizations have stepped in and collected data.
Two sociologists, Roger Finke and Rodney Stark, gathered these historical data, and they used them to calculate Americans’ religious adherence at ten points in time—1776, 1850, 1860, 1870, 1890, 1906, 1916, 1926, 1952, and 1980. Figure 2.8 presents their calculations in terms of adherence rates—how many Americans adhered to religion in each of these years. (In this context, religious adherence means about the same thing as church membership.)[42] As shown, actually very few Americans were church members during the Revolutionary era—less than 1 in 5. The big change happened with the Second Great Awakening, in the early 1800s, the time of Charles Finney and revival meetings. During this time, adherence rates jumped to about one-third. In the late 1800s, they jumped again, to almost half of the population, and they have steadily risen to the present when a
lmost two-thirds of the nation adheres to a religion.
I imagine that the data presented in Figure 2.8 would surprise most Americans today because we commonly assume early America to be the golden era of religious faith. How can we be so wrong about our religious history? Nostalgia is remarkably powerful, and thinking that we used to be great—along whatever dimensions—makes us feel good about ourselves and our country. Finke and Stark put it this way:
America is burdened with more nostalgic illusions about the colonial era than any other period in their history. Our conceptions of that time are dominated by a few powerful illustrations of Pilgrim scenes that most people over forty stared at year after year on classroom walls: the baptism of Pocahontas, the Pilgrims walking through the woods to church, the first Thanksgiving. Had these classroom walls also been graced with colonial scenes of drunken revelry and ballroom brawling, of women in risqué ball-gowns, of gamblers and rakes, a better balance might have been struck.[43]
Figure 2.8: Rates of Religious Adherence, 1776-1980
Various factors underlay the apparent irreligion in colonial America.[44] Many of the Europeans who emigrated here had weak family attachments, were on the run from punishment, or left their homes in shame—not necessarily the kind of people who usually have deep religious convictions. In fact, the English courts sent up to 50,000 criminals to the Colonies. Also, at the time, much of the United States was a frontier, and a frontier-ethos often does not emphasize religion. Frontiers also attract more men than women, and men tend to be less religious than women, at least when it comes to Christianity.
Christians Are Hate-Filled Hypocrites...and Other Lies You've Been Told Page 4
