by Roger Pielke
[16]The third participant that evening was Bob Ward, a public relations specialist from the London School of Economics.
[17] R. Pielke, Jr., “IPCC Mystery Graph Solved!” Roger Pielke Jr.’s Blog (8 Feb. 2010), available at: http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2010/02/ipcc-mystery-graph-solved.html
[18] R. Pielke, Jr., “RMS on the ‘Mystery Graph’: Should Not Have Been Included,” Roger Pielke Jr.’s Blog (17 Feb. 2010), available at: http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2010/02/rms-on-mystery-graph-should-not-have.html
[19] R. Pielke, Jr., “RMS Confirms Effort to Skirt IPCC Publication Deadlines,” Roger Pielke Jr.’s Blog (14 Feb. 2010), available at: http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2010/02/rms-confirms-effort-to-skirt-ipcc.html
[20] S. Miller, R. Muir-Wood, and A. Boissonnade, “An exploration of trends in normalized weather-related catastrophe losses,”in H. F. Diaz and R. J. Murnane, eds., Climate Extremes and Society, (New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2008): pp. 225–347.
[21] The flawed graph was actually identified in the IPCC review process, and a request was made for it to be removed as “misleading.” The IPCC ignored this advice. This episode is chronicled in The Climate Fix.
[22] C. Larson and J. Keating, “The FP Guide to Climate Skeptics,” Foreign Policy (26 Feb. 2010), available at: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/02/25/the_fp_guide_to_climate_skeptics
[23] D. Brooks, “The Refiner’s Fire,” New York Times (13 Feb. 2014), available at: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/14/opinion/ brooks-the-refiners-fire.html
[24] Committee to Review the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate change assessments: Review of the processes and procedures of the IPCC (Amsterdam, The Netherlands: InterAcademy Council, 2010), available at: http://reviewipcc.interacademycouncil.net/report.html
[25] IPCC, Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2012), available at: http://www.ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/
[26] IPCC, Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2013), available at: http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/
[27] IPCC, Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, IPCC Working Group II Contribution to AR5 (New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2014), available at: http://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/
[28] Careful readers will note that in this instance, Miller at al., 2008 is properly cited, unlike in 2007.
[29] R. Pielke, Jr., “Disasters Cost More Than Ever—But Not Because of Climate Change,” FiveThirtyEight (19 Mar. 2014), available at: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/disasters-cost-more-than-ever-but-not-because-of-climate-change/
[30] E. Isquith, “Objectively bad: Ezra Klein, Nate Silver, Jonathan Chait and return of the ‘view from nowhere,’” Salon (12 Apr. 2014), available at: http://www.salon.com/2014/04/12/objectively_bad_ezra_klein_nate_silver_jonathan_chait_and_return_of_the_view_from_nowhere/
[31] D. Auerbach, “Unnatural Disaster,” Slate (31 Mar. 2014), available at: http://www.slate.com/articles/business/moneybox/ 2014/03/nate_silver_climate_change_denial_it_s_time_to_dump_fivethirtyeight_s_roger.html
[32] P. Krugman, “Tarnished Silver,” New York Times (23 Mar. 2014), available at: http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/ 03/23/tarnished-silver/
[33] D. Satterfield, “Lies, Damned Lies and Statistical Truth,” AGU Blogosphere website (29 Mar. 2014), available at: http://blogs.agu.org/wildwildscience/2014/03/29/lies-damned-lies-and-statistical-truth/; the reader can judge whether the suggestion by the AGU that I have not published in top scientific journals is supported by the evidence: http://scholar.google.com/citations?user=WtqpmdIAAAAJ
[34] D. Byers, “Why is Nate Silver so sensitive?” Politico (28 Mar. 2014), available at: http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/ 2014/03/why-is-nate-silver-so-sensitive-185900.html
[35] J. Kay, “The welfare cap replaces political judgment with spin,” Financial Times (1 Apr. 2014), available at: http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/388faf40-b8fa-11e3-98c5-00144feabdc0.html
[36] See my publications: http://scholar.google.com/citations?user=WtqpmdIAAAAJ
[37] We first used the term “normalization” in this paper: R.A. Pielke, Jr. and C.W. Landsea, “Normalized hurricane damages in the United States: 1925-95,” Weather and Forecasting 13 (1998): pp. 621-631.
[38] We have applied normalization techniques to earthquakes as well; however, the focus here is on weather and climate.
[39] This simplified example ignores inflationary and wealth effects, which are of course important to address in actual analyses.
[40] It would be a mistake, however, to assume that building practices inevitably improve over time with respect to loss potentials. In fact, evidence suggests that older homes often do better in storms. See, e.g., B. Tansel and B. Sizirici, “Significance of Historical Hurricane Activity on Structural Damage Profile and Posthurricane Population Fluctuation in South Florida Urban Areas,” Natural Hazards Review 12 (2011): pp. 196–201.
[41] L.M. Bouwer, R.P. Crompton, E. Faust, P. Höppe, and R.A. Pielke, Jr., “Confronting disaster losses,” Science 318 (2007): p. 753ff.
[42] Even the IPCC has adopted the framing of proving a negative in at least one place. Chapter 18 of AR5 WGII concludes: “climate change cannot be excluded as at least one of the drivers involved in changes of normalized losses over time in some regions and for some hazards.” This statement is a truism, and says absolutely nothing of substance. Science does not prove negatives. See “Detection and Attribution of Observed Impacts,” Ch. 18 in IPCC, Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, IPCC Working Group II Contribution to AR5 (New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2014), available at: http://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/images/uploads/WGIIAR5-Chap18_FGDall.pdf
[43] E. Morris, “The Certainty of Donald Rumsfeld (Part 4),” New York Times (28 Mar. 2014), available at: http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/03/28/the-certainty-of-donald-rumsfeld-part-4/; for an example of its use in a climate context, see A. Revkin, “Varied Views on Extreme Weather in a Warming Climate,” New York Times (11 May 2012), available at: http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/05/11/another-view-on-extreme-weather-in-a-warming-climate/
[44] B. Russell, Is There a God? The Collected Papers of Bertrand Russell, Vol. 11: Last Philosophical Testament, 1943-68 (London, UK: Routledge, 1952): pp. 547–548.
[45] The IPCC discusses projections for near-term climate here: “Near-term Climate Change: Projections and Predictability,” Ch. 11 (http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/ WG1AR5_Chapter11_FINAL.pdf); and longer-term climate here: “Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility, Ch. 12 (http://www.climatechange2013.org/ images/report/WG1AR5_Chapter12_FINAL.pdf) in IPCC, Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2013).
[46] For the basic mathematics of such a calculus expressed in the case of U.S. hurricanes see, e.g., K. Emanuel, “Global Warming Effects on U.S. Hurricane Damage,” Weather, Climate, and Society 3, vol. 4 (2011): pp. 261-268; and R.P. Crompton, R.A. Pielke, Jr., and K.J. McAneney, “Emergence timescales for detection of anthropogenic climate change in U.S. tropical cyclone loss data,” Environmental Research Letters 6, vol. 1 (2011): 014003.
[47] R. Dawkins, “Snake Oil and holy Water,” Forbes (4 Oct. 1999), available at: http://www.forbes.com/asap/1999/1004/ 235_2.html
[48] R.A. Pielke, Jr., “Misdefining ‘climate change’: consequences for science and action,” Environmental Science and Policy 8 (2005): pp. 548-561.
[49] “Introduction,” Ch. 1 in IPCC, Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (New York, NY: Cambridge Univer
sity Press, 2013), available at: http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_Chapter01_FINAL.pdf
[50] “Glossary of Terms,” Annex II in IPCC, Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2012), available at: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/srex/SREX-Annex_Glossary.pdf
[51] The IPCC concludes: “No robust trends in annual numbers of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricane counts have been identified over the past 100 years in the North Atlantic basin.” See: “Observations: Atmosphere and Surface,” Ch. 2 in IPCC, Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2013), available at: http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_Chapter02_FINAL.pdf
[52] “Glossary of Terms,” Annex II in IPCC, Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2012), available at: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/srex/SREX-Annex_Glossary.pdf
[53] “John Christy and Kerry Emanuel on Climate Change,” EconTalk Podcast, Library of Economics and Liberty (24 Mar. 2014), available at: http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2014/ 03/john_christy_an.html
[54] “Evolution of Climate Models,” Ch. 9 in IPCC, Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2013), available at: http://www.climatechange2013.org/images /uploads/WGIAR5_WGI-12Doc2b_FinalDraft_Chapter09.pdf
[55] A Google search of “did climate change cause” returns more than 100,000 results.
[56] “Glossary of Terms,” Annex II in IPCC, Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2012), available at: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/srex/SREX-Annex_Glossary.pdf
[57] “2013 Natural Catastrophe Year in Review,” Munich Re (7 Jan. 2014), available at: https://www.munichre.com/site/touch-publications/get/documents_E2138584162/mr/assetpool .shared/Documents/5_Touch/Natural%20Hazards/NatCatNews/2013-natural-catastrophe-year-in-review-en.pdf
[58] P. Höppe and R. Pielke, Jr., eds., Workshop on Climate Change and Disaster Losses: Understanding and Attributing Trends and Projections, final workshop report (Hohenkammer, Germany: Munich Re and University of Colorado, 25-26 May 2006), available at: http://cstpr.colorado.edu/sparc/research/projects/extreme _events/munich_workshop/workshop_report.html
[59] L.M. Bouwer, R.P. Crompton, E. Faust, P. Höppe, and R.A. Pielke, Jr., “Confronting disaster losses,” Science 318, No. 5851 (2007): pp. 753-753.
[60] S. Miller, R. Muir-Wood, and A. Boissonnade, “An exploration of trends in normalized weather-related catastrophe losses,” in H. F. Diaz and R. J. Murnane, eds., Climate Extremes and Society (New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2008): pp. 225–347.
[61] E. Neumayer and F. Barthel, “Normalizing economic loss from natural disasters: A global analysis,” Global Environmental Change 21 (2011): pp. 13-24.
[62] S. Mohleji and R. Pielke, Jr., “Reconciliation of Trends in Global and Regional Economic Losses from Weather Events: 1980–2008,” Natural Hazards Review 15 (2014), available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000141
[63] H. Visser, A.C. Petersen, and W. Ligtvoet, “On the relation between weather-related disaster impacts, vulnerability and climate change,” Climatic Change 125, Nos. 3-4 (2014): pp. 461-477.
[64] IPCC, Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2012), available at: http://www.ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/
[65] “Key Economic Sectors and Services,” Ch. 10 in IPCC, Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, Working Group II Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2014), available at: http://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/images/uploads/WGIIAR5-Chap10_FGDall.pdf
[66] L.M. Bouwer, “Have disaster losses increased due to anthropogenic climate change?” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 92 (2011): pp. 39-46.
[67] “Observations: Atmosphere and Surface,” Ch. 2 in IPCC, Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2013), available at: http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_Chapter02_FINAL.pdf
[68] “Detection and Attribution of Climate Change: from Global to Regional,” Ch. 10 in IPCC, Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2013), available at: http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/ report/WG1AR5_Chapter10_FINAL.pdf
[69] IPCC, “Guidance Note for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on Consistent Treatment of Uncertainties,” IPCC Cross-Working Group Meeting (6-7 Jul. 2010), available at: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/supporting-material/uncertainty -guidance-note.pdf
[70] “Observations: Atmosphere and Surface,” Ch. 2 in IPCC, Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2013), available at: http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_Chapter02_FINAL.pdf
[71] “Detection and Attribution of Climate Change: from Global to Regional,” Ch. 10 in IPCC, Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2013), available at: http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/ report/WG1AR5_Chapter10_FINAL.pdf
[72] “NOAA’s Top Global Weather, Water and Climate Events of the 20th Century,” NOAA Backgrounder, available at: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/images/global.pdf
[73] S. Mohleji and R. Pielke, Jr., “Reconciliation of Trends in Global and Regional Economic Losses from Weather Events: 1980–2008,” Natural Hazards Review 15 (2014), available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000141
[74] R. Pielke, Jr., J. Gratz, C. Landsea, D. Collins, M. Saunders, and R. Musulin, “Normalized Hurricane Damage in the United States: 1900–2005,” Natural Hazards Review 9 (2008): pp. 29-42.
[75] You can explore this data and use it to place current hurricanes into historical context: http://icatdamageestimator.com
[76] Their inclusion does not alter this analysis.
[77] “Atlantic Basin Comparison of Original and Revised HURDAT,” Hurricane Research Division, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration website (Feb. 2014), available at: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/comparison _table.html
[78] The lack of bias includes the potential effects of sea level rise. Any effect of seal level rise on damages since 1900 is not detectable.
[79] IPCC, Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2012), available at: http://www.ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/
[80] “Observations: Atmosphere and Surface,” Ch. 2 in IPCC, Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2013), available at: http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_Chapter02_FINAL.pdf
[81] Ibid.
[82] IPCC, Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2012), available at: http://www.ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/
[83] J. Weinkle, R. Maue, and R. Pielke, Jr., “Historical Global Tropical Cyclone Landfalls,*” Journal of Climate 25 (2012): pp. 4729–4735, a
vailable at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00719.1
[84]After R.N. Maue, “Recent historically low global tropical cyclone activity,” Geophysical Research Letters 38 (2011): L14803, doi:10.1029/2011GL047711.
[85] Sea level rise is ongoing and expected to continue, with potentially large impacts, according to the IPCC. However, to date there are no studies which have identified a signal of sea level rise in storm damage statistics. This is no doubt due to the fact that sea level rise to date has been relatively modest, coastal infrastructure is built over time, and coastlines are heavily managed via engineering works such as reclamation and beach nourishment.
[86] “Observations: Atmosphere and Surface,” Ch. 2 in IPCC, Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2013), available at: http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_Chapter02_FINAL.pdf
