22. The main beneficiary of such confusion . . . stabilizing Iraq in the early postwar months). For the most damning portrait of Cheney, see Scott McClellan, What Happened: Inside the Bush White House and Washington’s Culture of Deception (New York: Public Affairs, 2008); on the mobilization of message “force multipliers,” see David Barstow, “Behind TV Analysts, Pentagon’s Hidden Hand: Courting Ex-Officers Tied to Military Contractors,” New York Times, April 20, 2008.
23. Some, like onetime neoconservative . . . at the end of the Cold War. See Francis Fukuyama, “After Neoconservatism,” New York Times Magazine, February 19, 2006; and his opening chapter, “Nation-Building and the Failure of Institutional Memory,” in Fukuyama, ed., Nation-Building: Beyond Afghanistan and Iraq (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2006), pp. 1-16.
23. Other examples cited . . . coordinated efforts with Northern Alliance forces. See Ricks, Fiasco, Part One—“Containment”; and Larry Diamond, “What Went Wrong and Right in Iraq,” in Fukuyama, ed., Nation-Building, pp. 173-75.
23. Nor should we be surprised that the most prominent Shia . . . decision-making. See Ricks, Fiasco, pp. 56-57; and Aram Roston, The Man Who Pushed America to War: The Extraordinary Life, Adventures, and Obsessions of Ahmed Chalabi (New York: Nation Books, 2008).
23. As Thomas Ricks observes . . . was tear down the goalposts at halftime in the game.” Ricks, Fiasco, p. 145.
23. The White House would deny . . . “If you break it, you own it”). Cited in Bob Woodward, Plan of Attack (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2004), p. 150.
24. So Rumsfeld was right . . Army you might want or wish to have at a later time.” See “Troops Put Thorny Questions to Rumsfeld: Defense Chief Speaks to Iraq-bound Soldiers in Kuwait,” CNN.com, December 9, 2004, found online at www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/meast/12/08/rumsfeld.troops/.
Envy, Leading to the Misguided Redirect on Iran
25. As Vali Nasr argues . . . completely predictable. See Vali Nasr, The Shia Revival: How Conflicts Within Islam Will Shape the Future (New York: W. W. Norton, 2006), chaps. 7-9.
25. Much as Turkey has . . . liberation from Saddam Hussein’s dictatorship. Cited in Andrew Purvis, “Istanbul’s Economic Tension,” Time, May 1, 2008.
Sloth, Leading to the U.S. Military Finally Asserting Command
28. For a presidency devoted to expanding . . . Petraeus’s longtime mentor. See Bob Woodward, The War Within: A Secret White House History, 2006-2008 (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2008), pp. 129-46, 276-82, 296-99, and 331-33.
28. After Petraeus’s historic testimony . . . President of the United States. Quoted in Woodward, The War Within, p. 392.
30. Together, these two “monks of war” . . . published formally in December 2006. Thomas P. M. Barnett, “The Monks of War,” Esquire, March 2006, found online at www.esquire.com/features/articles/2006/060426_mfe_March_06_Generals_1.html.
30. For as Sarah Sewall, a Harvard human rights experts . . . fundamentally at odds.” The U.S. Army/Marine Corps, Counterinsurgency Field Manual (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2007), p. xxxix.
Gluttony, Leading to Strategic Overhang Cynically Foisted upon the Next President
31. U.S. defense spending as a percentage . . . hovering in the 4.3-4.4 percent range. These data are compiled from the “Truth and Politics” website page (“Relative Size of US Military Spending, 1940-2003”) found online at www.truthandpolitics.org/military-relative-size.php#gdp-graph.
31. Yes, the American military has spread itself out . . . to about thirty or so foreign states. This calculation was supplied by Henry H. Gaffney, Director of the Strategy and Concepts Group in the Center for Strategic Studies at the Center for Naval Analyses, Alexandria, Virginia; it is buttressed by Tim Kane, “Global U.S. Troop Deployment, 1950-2003” (Washington, DC: Heritage Foundation Center for Data Analysis Report #04-11, 27 October 2004), found online at www.heritage.org/Research/NationalSecurity/cda0411.cfm.
31. Finally, consider this measure of individual burden . . . one out of every 800 Americans. In 1968, roughly one million Americans served abroad in uniform, out of a total population of approximately 200 million. Today, somewhat less than 400,000 troops are stationed abroad, out of a national population of over 300 million. For details, see Kane, “Global U.S. Troop Deployment, 1950-2003.”
CHAPTER 2. A TWELVE-STEP RECOVERY PROGRAM FOR AMERICAN GRAND STRATEGY
36. A world that rapidly doubles . . . to ensure either outcome than America. The global middle class is currently estimated in the 25-30 percent range and is expected to increase to the 50-55 percent range over the next 10 to 15 years; see Moises Naim, “Can the World Afford a Middle Class? Yes, But It Will Be Awfully Expensive,” Foreign Policy, March-April 2008.
37. In the best tradition of self-help programs . . . back to where we once belonged.
THE TWELVE STEPS OF ALCOHOLICS ANONYMOUS1. We admitted we were powerless over alcohol—that our lives had become unmanageable.
2. Came to believe that a Power greater than ourselves could restore us to sanity.
3. Made a decision to turn our will and our lives over to the care of God as we understood Him.
4. Made a searching and fearless moral inventory of ourselves.
5. Admitted to God, to ourselves and to another human being the exact nature of our wrongs.
6. Were entirely ready to have God remove all these defects of character.
7. Humbly asked Him to remove our shortcomings.
8. Made a list of all persons we had harmed, and became willing to make amends to them all.
9. Made direct amends to such people wherever possible, except when to do so would injure them or others.
10. Continued to take personal inventory and when we were wrong promptly admitted it.
11. Sought through prayer and meditation to improve our conscious contact with God, as we understood Him, praying only for knowledge of His will for us and the power to carry that out.
12. Having had a spiritual awakening as the result of these steps, we tried to carry this message to alcoholics, and to practice these principles in all our affairs.
“A Brief Guide to Alcoholics Anonymous,” Alcoholics Anonymous World Services, Inc., 1972, found online at www.aa.org/en_pdfs/p-42_abriefguidetoaa.pdf.
1. Admit that we Americans are powerless over globalization
38. So we Americans need . . . at suitably discounted prices. See Thomas L. Friedman, Hot, Flat, and Crowded: Why We Need a Green Revolution—And How It Can Renew America (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2008).
2. Come to believe that only a bipartisanship . . . restore sanity to America’s foreign affairs.
39. As Ronald Brownstein notes . . . in those first decades of modern America. See Ronald Brownstein, The Second Civil War: How Extreme Partisanship Has Paralyzed Washington and Polarized America (New York: Penguin Press, 2007), pp. 27-56 (“The Age of Partisan Armies”).
39. As the country moved deeper . . . the longest such period in American history. See Brownstein, Second Civil War, pp. 57-91 (“The Age of Bargaining”).
39. That age of bargaining yielded . . . subsequent rise of the “Reagan Republicans.” See Brownstein, Second Civil War, pp. 93-136 (“The Age of Transition”).
39. Since that time we’ve seen . . . commands a serious majority. See Brownstein, Second Civil War, pp. 137-74 (“The Rise of Hyperpartisanship”).
40. Morris Massey, an expert on conflict . . . we discover a world larger than ourselves. Massey’s work appears to exist only on tape; see Morris Massey, What You Are Is Where You Were When, Program 1 of The Massey Triad, found online at www.enterprisemedia.com/product/00121/massey_triad.html.
3. Make the decision to coordinate all elements . . . that we have collectively defined.
43. While it is technically . . . a third pillar alongside diplomacy and defense.” See Lael Brainard and Patrick Cronin, Codirectors, Brookings-CSIS Task Force: Transforming Foreign Assistance for the 21st Century, “Executive Recommendations,” found o
nline at www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/articles/2006/fall_foreign_assistance_reform_brainard/fall_foreign_assistance_reform_brainard.pdf.
43. With a current portfolio . . WWII to have a modest foreign policy agenda. On this, see Lael Brainard, “A Unified Framework for U.S. Foreign Assistance” (pp. 1- 32) and “Organizing U.S. Foreign Assistance to Meet Twenty-first Century Challenges” (pp. 33-66) in Brainard, ed., Security by Other Means: Foreign Assistance, Global Poverty, and American Leadership (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2007).
44. Seeing them as such, I’m less interested in “supersizing” State . . . cabinet department. I was one of several dozen experts who testified to the HELP (Helping to Enhance the Livelihood of People Around the Globe) Commission; see their report, “Beyond Assistance: The HELP Commission Report on Foreign Assistance Reform,” December 2007, found online at www.helpcommission.gov/portals/0/Beyond%20Assistance_HELP_Commission_Report.pdf.
45. When almost 90 percent of your officers say . . . and platforms third. See the polling data in “The U.S. Military Index,” Foreign Policy, March-April 2008, found online at ww.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=4198.
45. And when over 90 percent of your casualties . . . in treasure—and blood. A good source of casualties by month is provided by GlobalSecurity.org and found online at www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/iraq_casualties.htm.
46. Now, as the real push comes to shove . . . for these purposes the whole time? On this sad state of affairs, see David Morgan and Kristin Roberts, “U.S. Seeks Bigger Role Assisting Pakistani Forces,” Reuters, February 6, 2008.
4. Make a searching and fearless moral inventory of the “global war on terror.”
46. Most crucial is that al Qaeda’s brutal tactics . . . support throughout the Islamic world. See Pew Global Attitudes Project polling on this trend, located online at pewglobal.org/.
47. According to experts who track such trends . . . will be far more religious than the last. See Laurie Goodstein, “More Religion, but Not the Old-Time Kind,” New York Times, January 9, 2005.
48. The opposite of war isn’t peace, it’s creation. A line from Jonathan Larson’s 1996 Broadway musical, Rent, specifically from the song “La Vie Boheme.”
49. Foreign direct investment flows to the Middle East . . . quadrupled since 2000. See Roula Khalaf, “Boomtime in Lands of Oil and Money: The Rise in the Oil Price Is Driving Investment Growth,” Financial Times, November 20, 2007.
50. That demographic . . . Middle East will “middle-age” over the next quarter-century. See Graham Fuller’s paper, “The Youth Crisis in Middle Eastern Society” (Clinton, MI: Institute for Social Policy and Understanding, 2004).
51. And we’d better . . . time is on our side—but not forever. See Richard Jackson and Neil Howe, The Graying of the Great Powers: Demography and Geopolitics in the 21st Century (Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2008), pp. 133-41.
51. The same goes for Islamic youth . . . infuriate their parents. Cathy Lynn Grossman, “Tension Between Sunnis, Shiites Emerging in USA,” USA Today, September 25, 2007.
51. Turkey’s the “lead goose” in this formation . . . within the framework of modern life. See Christopher Dickey and Owen Matthews, “The New Face of Islam: A Critique of Radicalism Is Building Within the Heart of the Muslim World,” Newsweek, June 9, 2008.
52. History says that as long as your population . . . democratic political systems. On this point, see Richard P. Cincotta, “How Democracies Grow Up: Countries with Too Many Young People May Not Have a Fighting Chance at Freedom,” Foreign Policy, March-April 2008.
5. Admit to the world and to ourselves the exact nature of our mistakes in Iraq and Afghanistan.
54. What did that legacy cost us? See Global Security.org for casualty data, found online at www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/iraq_casualties.htm.
6. We are entirely ready to work with the international community . . . wartime injustice.
57. America’s relationship with the ICC . . . render us exempt from its prosecution. On this subject, see the Coalition for the International Criminal Court, “US Bilateral Immunity or So-called “Article 98” Agreements,” Global Policy Forum, April 18, 2003, found online at www.globalpolicy.org/intljustice/icc/2003/0606usbilaterals.htm.
57. Good example: The ICC has indicted Sudanese . . . ethnic cleansing in Darfur. See Romesh Ratnesar, “The Don Quixote of Darfur,” Time, November 12, 2007.
8. Make a list of all the great powers . . . become willing to make concessions to them all.
60. Vice President Dick Cheney stated that the long war . . . administrations to come.” See “Interview of the Vice President by Richard Wolffe, Newsweek Magazine,” Office of the Vice President, January 28, 2007, found online at www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2007/01/20070128.html.
62. Right now there’s nothing in the Middle East . . . James Baker, argued, there should be. See James A. Baker III and Lee H. Hamilton, The Iraq Study Group Report: The Way Forward—A New Approach (New York: Vintage, 2006), pp. 58-64.
9. Make direct overtures to violent nonstate actors . . . would damage existing alliances.
This section began as an unclassified report that I authored for U.S. Strategic Command in January 2008 as part of its ongoing study of violent nonstate actors.
10. Continue to review our goal of accelerated democratization . . . promptly admit it.
67. Princeton economist Alan Krueger . . . more likely to turn to terrorist tactics.” Alan B. Krueger, What Makes a Terrorist: Economics and the Roots of Terrorism (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2007), p. 7.
67. But since almost 90 percent of attacks occur . . . killed by lightning than by al Qaeda. See Krueger, Terrorist, p. 71; and John Muller, “A False Sense of Insecurity?: How Does the Risk of Terrorism Measure Up Against Everyday Dangers?” Regulation, Fall 2004.
68. Indeed, numerous studies today note . . . the greater that country’s civil liberties. The top quarter of countries, according to size of the middle class, is over 90 percent democratic, whereas the bottom quarter is less than 50 percent; see William Easterly, The White Man’s Burden: Why the West’s Efforts to Aid the Rest Have Done So Much Ill and So Little Good (New York: Penguin Press, 2006), pp. 124-25.
68. If you attempt to short-circuit . . . radical extremists prevail. On this point, see Fareed Zakaria, The Future of Freedom: Illiberal Democracy at Home and Abroad (New York: W. W. Norton, 2003).
CHAPTER 3. THE AMERICAN TRAJECTORY: OF GREAT MEN AND GREAT POWERS
74. In fact, its parliament was the first in history . . . violent attacks against its commerce. Several British Members of Parliament reminded me of this fact when I delivered a presentation there in the fall of 2004.
74. Less than 2 percent of our country’s population . . . patricians selecting one of their own. The best estimate is somewhat less than 1.3 percent, or less than 40,000 popular votes cast out of a total American population of roughly 3 million; see the Wikipedia entry online at en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1789.
74. During that election . . . to vote in the presidential race. Those six states that allowed for popular or partly popular election of electors were Kentucky, Maryland, North Carolina, Rhode Island, Tennessee, and Virginia; see the Wikipedia entry online at en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election %2C_1800.
75. This one-party rule, subsequently dubbed . . . president ran unopposed. James Monroe in 1820; see the Wikipedia entry online at en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ United_States_presidential_election%2C_1820.
75. Finally, a whopping forty-eight years after . . . citizens vote directly for electors. Of the twenty-six states, only Delaware and South Carolina had their legislatures pick the electors. In Maryland, Maine, New York, and Tennessee, most electors were selected by popular election. In the other twenty states, all electors were popularly elected. See the Wikipedia entry online at en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1828_election.
75. Na
turally, he was another war hero . . . the equivalent of a “third term.” On Andrew Jackson, see Daniel Walker Howe, What Hath God Wrought: The Transformation of America, 1815-1848 (New York: Oxford University Press, 2007), pp. 328-66.
The American System, Proposed and Imposed
80. As Walter Russell Mead correctly notes . . . which states must observe and protect.” Walter Russell Mead, God and Gold: Britain, America, and the Making of the Modern World (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 2007), p. 4.
81. In a time of “great upheaval” that historian . . . ambitious reforms in Imperial Russia. See Jay Winik, The Great Upheaval: America and the Birth of the Modern World, 1788- 1800 (New York: HarperCollins, 2007), pp. xi-xx.
81. As Winik describes our infancy . . . agreements, charters and covenants.” Winik, Great Upheaval, p. 55.
82. Meanwhile, our ships came under such . . . ransom for cargo and personnel captured. That figure comes from Michael B. Oren, Power, Faith, and Fantasy: America in the Middle East, 1776 to the Present (New York: W.W. Norton, 2007), p. 38.
82. Despite its internal divisions and inherent weakness . . “sport of European politics.” Quoted in Winik, Great Upheaval, p. 54.
82. As Robert Kagan writes in Dangerous Nation . . . their political influence with them.” Robert Kagan, Dangerous Nation: America’s Place in the World from Its Earliest Days to the Dawn of the Twentieth Century (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 2006), p. 76. This is the most interesting history of America that I have ever read. It inspired me to write Chapter 3 of this book.
Great Powers Page 54
