by Dale Brown
The objective of the mission was the Wenchang Spaceport, the southernmost and newest of China ’s four satellite-launch facilities. Because Wenchang was closest to the equator and could therefore use the Earth’s spin to help shove bigger rockets into orbit, the launch facilities, seaport, and rail lines had been greatly expanded to allow launches of China’s biggest boosters, including the new Long March-5 heavy booster intended for manned lunar missions, and lifting larger parts of Tiangong-1, China’s growing military space station, into orbit.
There were four launchpads at Wenchang, and the Grebe got busy photographing them in detail. It was risky using the Grebe to photograph the base at such a low altitude, but even advanced satellites could not provide the extreme detail that the large drone could; also, satellites were too easy to detect and predict when they flew over the base, making it simple for the Chinese to hide a classified project from sight.
Along with optical and infrared sensors, the Grebe also collected electromagnetic signals such as radar, radio, microwave, and cellular telephone. It would avoid any areas of greater radar-signal activity, especially the naval port on the south side of the island, to avoid being detected. When it encountered a suspected air defense radar lock, the Grebe would automatically stow the electro-optical and infrared sensor domes to reduce its radar signature, then redeploy them when the signals subsided.
The Hainan Island military complex was actually three bases in one: the naval airfield that housed long-range maritime patrol planes, air defense fighter interceptors, and the Chinese aircraft carrier’s air wing; the port facilities for the six ships in China’s first aircraft-carrier battle group; and an underground submarine base actually carved into the island, which hosted a dozen hunter-killer and ballistic-missile submarines. Although Wenchang was the main target of this mission, the Grebe drone also snapped a few pictures of the rest of the island superfortress when its sensors detected that any radars were no longer tracking it. The Chinese aircraft-carrier group had returned from its encounter with the USS George H. W. Bush, and its aircraft were safely on shore.
As the Grebe swept back to the north to take one last pass at Wenchang before returning for its rendezvous with the Wyoming, some new details began to emerge. Three of the four main launchpads were vacant. The fourth main launchpad held a very large rocket with an incredible twelve rocket motors strapped onto the lower section and an enormous cargo fairing atop the rocket.
A new development was the presence of two smaller launchpads situated away from the main launch complex and serviced by roads, not rail lines. These were occupied by large rockets on mobile transporter-erector-launchers, with six concrete shelters large enough to house them built nearby. That was certainly a new development-they hadn’t been spotted by any satellite surveillance passes as soon as a day earlier.
Mission complete, the Grebe stowed its sensor turrets and headed northeast. It would take a wide sweeping course away from the island, turn on its transponders so Chinese air defense would spot it heading away, then go back into stealth mode, descend, and turn south for its rendezvous with the Wyoming, hopefully sending any pursuers off in the wrong direction. Once at the preplanned rendezvous point, it would ski-land on the South China Sea, sink itself to a safe level, and await retrieval by divers from the Wyoming. Although in service for only a few months, the Grebe was proving to be a very valuable intelligence-gathering tool, giving the Navy yet another over-the-horizon asset that allowed…
…and at that moment, less than two miles off the northeast coast of Hainan Island, a Type P793 mobile twin thirty-seven-millimeter antiaircraft cannon, guided by passive electro-optical and infrared sensors and therefore undetected by the Grebe’s electromagnetic sensors, opened fire. The drone was cut to pieces in seconds, scattering pieces of itself across an entire square mile of the South China Sea.
THE WHITE HOUSE SITUATION ROOM
THE NEXT MORNING
“They are Dong Feng-21 missiles, sir,” Gerald Vista, the director of national intelligence, said. President Gardner peered with close attention at the images on the large-screen computer monitor at the front of the room. It was an amazingly clear image of the launchpads at Wenchang Spaceport on Hainan Island, China, transmitted via satellite from the Grebe sub-launched unmanned aerial vehicle-they looked as if they were taken from a platform just above the weapons. “In my opinion they represent a major escalation of weapons in the South China Sea.”
Vista used a remote control to zoom in on two of the launchpads. “Note the differences in the nose section of the missiles between pad number five and six, and the extra set of fins near the top of the missile on the ones on pad five,” he said. “The extra fins allow more maneuvering in the atmosphere. We believe the missiles on pad five are maneuvering ballistic antiship missiles.”
“So the rumors are true, eh?” the president remarked. “I remember they were supposedly experimenting with them when I was at the Pentagon. Any chance they might be fakes set up out there for us to take pictures of them?”
“Of course, sir,” Vista said. “We’d need a clandestine operative, an informant, or a special ops mission to be sure. Until then, we shouldn’t take the chance.”
“I know that, Gerald,” the president said perturbedly. “So they finally rolled the big antiship missiles out. Because of the Bush incident, I presume?”
“That, and I’m sure the Pakistan strike as well,” National Security Adviser Conrad Carlyle said. He turned to Vista. “The missiles on pad six are the antisatellite missiles?”
“Yes. Officially called the KT-3, but still a modified DF-21 missile like the others. We estimate it can hit satellites as high as six hundred miles-plenty to reach Armstrong and the interceptor garages. It was the same missile that shot down their weather satellite a few years ago.”
“You think they want to attack the space station, Gerald?” the president asked. He turned to Secretary of State Barbeau and National Security Adviser Conrad Carlyle. “That make sense to you, Stacy? Conrad?”
“I think we’re seeing the beginnings of the Chinese response to our naval buildup program, sir,” Carlyle said. “They know they or the Russians can’t build space weapons or aircraft carriers or train experienced carrier crews fast enough to match us. So while they get up to speed on carriers and space, they bring out the antiship ballistic missiles and ASATs.”
“The Chinese don’t want to challenge us, Mr. President, but they don’t want to be seen as being restricted at all by the U.S. Navy,” Barbeau said. “We don’t want to restrict free access to the world’s oceans-”
“We just want the ability to do so if we choose,” the president said. “So what about these damned Dong Feng missiles? Are they something we need to worry about?”
“The DF-21 and KT-3 are mobile solid-fuel missiles with good accuracy even with just an inertial guidance system-they get near zero-zero accuracy with a precision system such as electro-optical, satellite, or laser guidance,” Vista said. “They’re easy to hide, easy to set up, can be fired and reloaded quickly, and are hypersonic, which makes intercepting them more difficult. Even without a high-explosive or nuclear warhead, just one could probably severely damage an aircraft carrier enough to take it out of action just by sheer impact force.”
“But it does have a nuclear warhead, right?”
“Yes, sir, it does,” Vista said. “They can also carry a one-thousand-pound high-explosive warhead, but it has a much shorter range. The ASAT missile is kinetic-kill only-no warhead, hit-to-kill.”
“The nukes are a problem, Mr. President-a very big one,” Vice President Ken Phoenix said. Gardner gave him a fleeting warning glance but let him speak. “ China is deploying nuclear-capable antiship missiles? What if they start deploying them in large numbers? Are they trying to restrict our movements or exclude us from certain areas?”
“The problem is targeting, sir-finding and tracking an aircraft carrier,” Carlyle said. “Oceans are big, especially the western Pacific and In
dian oceans, which the Chinese would want to patrol, and carriers move pretty quickly and unpredictably. But if you spot one and pass the location to the launch site, the situation quickly turns critical.”
“Do the Chinese have that ability?” Phoenix asked.
“In certain regions, yes, sir,” Vista said. “The South China Sea, East China Sea, and Yellow Sea are quickly becoming Chinese lakes, like the Gulf of Mexico is to the United States -open to all, but definitely under our direct control. Straits of Malacca, Java Sea, eastern Indian Ocean, the most important sea-lanes from Asia to the Middle East and Europe-not so much yet, but building quickly. They have three satellites in circular equatorial orbits specifically tasked for surveillance of the Indian Ocean and South China Sea, and they operate large fleets of manned and unmanned patrol aircraft to monitor seas closer to the mainland.”
“Well, that’s an awful big chunk of the Far East, and nukes in open ocean can be pretty devastating even if you miss your target,” Phoenix offered. “It’s a serious situation. We should demand they remove the nuclear warheads from those missiles immediately and allow verification inspections.”
The president took a sip of orange juice and thought for a moment; then: “Putting nuclear warheads on missiles out in the open is a big deal, Ken, I agree,” he said, “but Stacy Anne is handling China right now, and I think she’s doing a good job. She closed the book on the Bush incident, so now we can turn to Hainan Island and those missiles.”
He thought for a while longer, then went on: “We let them know that we know they’re there, period. If China wants to put missiles there, let ’em; if they want to do some test launches, we’ll collect even more data on what they have. Now that we know they’re there, we’ll be keeping an eye on them even more closely, and at the first sign of any conflict, we’ll take ’ em out.” He noticed Phoenix wanted to say something, and gave him another warning glance. “I’m not going to do anything that will make the Chinese think we’re scared of their missiles.” He nodded toward the screen. “What about that big-ass rocket out there?”
“That’s their new heavy-lift booster, the Long March-5, sir,” Vista said. “It’s an enlarged Long March-3 rocket with four solid-fuel motors strapped to the outside. It can haul twenty-five tons into low Earth orbit, fifteen tons to geosynchronous orbit, or ten tons to the moon-not quite Saturn-5 class, but still impressive. The Chinese have already announced they’re going to use it to insert the new crew habitation module of their space station, Shenzhou-7. The launch is scheduled for May first. Their first lunar mission-orbit the moon, then return-is also scheduled for this year.”
“ China is really going full throttle on their space program, aren’t they?” Vice President Phoenix remarked.
“Let’s talk about our own space program-namely, Armstrong and those weapon garages,” the president interjected. “Get Page and that general in here.” A few moments later, Ann Page and Brigadier General Raydon were escorted into the Situation Room, along with Secretary of the Air Force Salazar Banderas. Stacy Barbeau did a double take when Kai Raydon entered the room-obviously she liked what she saw. “Take seats, folks, and let’s talk,” the president said. He waited until the newcomers had seated themselves, then said without preamble or pleasantries, “If I didn’t know any better, Secretary Banderas, I’d say you sneaked those Thor’s Hammer things on those space platforms, disguised as antiballistic-missile weapons or space experiments. Am I wrong?”
“Mr. President, I didn’t try to conceal anything,” Banderas said. “We revealed everything in our budgets and research plans.” He glanced at Secretary of Defense Turner. “I briefed SECDEF myself on every aspect of Kingfisher.”
“Miller?”
“I’d have to check my records, sir,” Turner said uneasily. “Kingfisher I recognize. I remember something last year about a successful test of a space-launched surface-attack weapon, but I didn’t know it had been deployed as part of the space-based antiballistic-missile system.”
“I recall getting a briefing, Mr. President,” Phoenix said. Gardner ignored the remark.
“Mr. President, it was a successful employment,” Ann said. “A crisis was averted. We should-”
“Dr. Page, I’ll get to you in a second,” the president said, holding up a hand. “Secretary Banderas, I feel as if I’ve been deceived. I’ve got to explain to the world what we did in Pakistan, and I don’t know enough about these space weapons to do that. That’s my fault and my problem. The question is: What do we do from here?”
“Mr. President, I recommend accelerating deployment of the full Kingfisher constellation,” Banderas said. “They proved they work. We were lucky we had a weapon platform in position to strike. Now that the world understands what we have, they can time their strikes to take advantage of coverage gaps. We need to fill those gaps as quickly as possible.”
“Do you read the papers, Mr. Secretary?” the president asked irritably. “Do you watch the news? Pakistan is accusing us of attacking them with a conventionally armed intercontinental ballistic missile! We killed dozens of civilians. Pictures of that crater are being shown on TV every hour of every day. And I can’t tell the world that we stopped a Pakistani missile attack- India and probably Russia would attack in a heartbeat.”
“Sir, all of the nations in the region are manipulating the events in this incident to suit their own political agenda,” Banderas said.
“ China has a space tracking facility in Karachi, and Pakistan has dozens of long-range radars; India and Russia have them, too, in India. They all know Pakistan launched a ballistic missile at India and that we intercepted it, but that hasn’t hit the news yet.”
“What’s your point, Mr. Secretary?”
“My point is, sir, that we can’t respond to international criticism and fear because people aren’t being told the whole truth,” Banderas went on. “The only thing we can do is make the system completely operational and respond to the next emergency as appropriate.”
“And you don’t feel this will cause a new arms race?”
“Sir, the race is already on,” Banderas said. He motioned to Kai Raydon, who opened a folder and dropped a photograph on the conference table before the president. “Does that look familiar, sir?”
President Gardner glanced at it, then nodded and slid the photo to his national security adviser. “They look like the missile shelters on Hainan Island in China,” he said.
“They are missile shelters for DF-21 missiles, sir-but they’re located in Karachi, Pakistan, not China,” Kai said. “We photographed them just a few hours ago. It looks like China is deploying DF-21s and probably KT-3 antisatellite missiles in Pakistan.”
“That’s ridiculous,” National Security Adviser Conrad Carlyle said. “ China deploying missiles designed to attack American warships-in Pakistan, an American ally?”
“ China is a Pakistani ally, too, Mr. Director, as you know,” Banderas said. “We’ve been drifting apart from Pakistan for quite some time, since Predator drone sorties were stepped up in the Afghan-Pakistan border region, and at the same time China has been increasing economic and military aid to Pakistan.”
“We’re scanning other Chinese-allied nations looking for more of these DF-21 launch sites,” Kai said. “I’ll bet we’ll soon find them in Africa, the Pacific, South America, and Southeast Asia -everywhere they have military cooperation agreements or have bought basing rights.”
“Again, they can build all the launchpads they want-we’ll have to keep track of them and make a plan to take them out if necessary,” the president said. Kai noticed the uncomfortable set of the vice president’s jaw-obviously he didn’t agree with that tactic. “Making this situation even more complicated was the attack from space. Why should the Chinese give up their missiles while we have orbiting killer meteoroids?”
“Sir, it’s obvious China has been working on deploying these DF-21s and KT-3s around the world for quite some time-probably since we first started inserting the interceptor gar
ages into orbit,” Banderas said. “Now those things are out in the open, possibly with nuclear warheads. And remember, sir, that the DF-21 is at first a surface-to-surface missile as well as an antiship and antisatellite one-from Hainan Island they can reach as far as Guam and Okinawa and hit all of the transit routes between the Pacific and Indian oceans. The only weapon system we have right now to hit those launchers in a timely manner is Mjollnir.”
“I think a sea-launched cruise missile could do the job adequately as well, Sal-let’s not lose perspective here, okay?” the president said. “I know you’re an air-and space-power advocate, but let’s not forget the big picture.” He turned to Secretary of State Barbeau. “Stacy…”
She smiled and held up a hand. “I know, sir, I know…back to Beijing.”
“I need to learn more about what the Chinese intend to do with these DF-21s,” the president said. “I’m not going to force the issue or demand removal-yet-but I want to get a statement from them.”
“I think I know what they’ll say: It’s to protect vital Chinese shipping lanes and the free flow of commerce around the world,” Barbeau said. “They’ll openly cite Somali and Philippine pirates; less overtly, they’ll say that American domination of the world’s oceans is a threat.”
“Get it firsthand, and then we’ll hold their feet to the fire,” Gardner said.
“Yes, Mr. President,” she said, taking that opportunity to look Raydon up and down again. He did the same to her, but more discreetly.
