AI Superpowers

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by Kai-Fu Lee


  self-driving cars and, 131–32, 135

  TensorFlow, 95, 228

  top researchers at, 93

  U.S. digital world dominance and, 2

  See also DeepMind

  Google Brain, 45

  Google China, 29–30, 31–32, 37–38, 41, 52, 57

  Google Wallet, 75, 76

  GPTs (general purpose technologies), 148–55

  Grab, 137

  great decoupling, 150, 170, 202

  grid approach, 94–95

  “Gross National Happiness,” 229

  ground-up disruptions and job threats, 162–63, 164

  Groupon, 23, 24, 45–46, 47–48, 49

  Grubhub, 72

  guaranteed minimum income (GMI), 206–7

  guiding funds, 63, 64, 98–99

  Guo Hong, 51–52, 56, 61–62, 63, 64, 68

  H

  Hall of Ancestor Worship, 29–30

  Hangzhou, China, 75, 94, 99

  Hao Jingfang, 144–46, 168, 172, 230

  Harari, Yuval N., 172

  hardware innovation, 125–28

  Hassabis, Demis, 141

  Hawking, Stephen, 141

  healthcare, 103, 113–15, 116, 195, 211–13. See also medical diagnosis

  Hefei, China, 81–82, 83

  Her (film), 199

  Hidden Markov Models, 8

  Hinton, Geoffrey, 9, 11, 86, 92, 93, 143, 161

  home ecosystems, 127–28

  home healthcare aides, 171, 214

  homework and drills, 123

  Horizon Robotics, 97

  hospitals, 110, 114, 125, 138

  Hsing Yun, Master, 187–90, 195, 218–20, 225

  Huawei, 89

  Hughes, Chris, 207

  human coexistence with AI, 197–225

  Chinese perspective on AI and jobs, 202–3

  Fink’s letter and impact investing, 215–17

  government role in, 217–18, 222–24

  looking forward and around, 224–25

  love and, 195–96, 198, 199, 201, 210

  market symbiosis, 210–15

  new social contract, 199–202

  reduce, retrain, and redistribute, 203–6

  social investment stipend, 220–24

  touchscreen device for elderly, 197–98, 221

  universal basic income, 201, 206–10, 218, 220, 222, 225

  volunteerism, 218–20

  I

  IBM, 4

  IBM Watson, 105, 111

  ICT (information and communication technologies), 150–51, 152, 154

  iFlyTek, 104–5, 115–16

  ImageNet, 89–90, 161

  image recognition, 8, 10, 81, 89–90, 104–5, 161. See also computer vision; object recognition

  impact investing, service-focused, 216–17

  implementation

  age of. See age of implementation

  of deep learning, 12–14, 86

  in-class teaching, 122–23

  India, 137, 138, 139

  Indonesia, 138, 139

  Industrial Revolution, compared to AI, 18, 79, 86–87, 148, 151–52, 200, 228

  Industrial Revolutions, first and second, GPTs of, 149–50, 152, 153

  industry-based approach to jobs at risk, 162–63

  inequality. See global economic inequality; wealth and class inequality

  information and communication technologies (ICT), 150–51, 152, 154

  insurance industry, 10, 110

  Intel, 96

  intelligent superhighways, 133

  international research, 11–13

  internet, monopolization of, 170

  internet AI, 105–6, 107–10, 136

  Internet Explorer, 41

  internet-of-things (IoT) networks, 54, 78, 79

  iPhone, 32, 57

  iPhone X, 117

  iron rice bowl, 67

  Italy, 85, 191–92

  J

  Japan, 20, 229

  Jesuits, 29

  JingChi, 135

  Jinri Toutiao. See Toutiao (news platform)

  job displacement by automation, 160, 162, 204. See also under economy and AI

  Jobs, Steve, 26, 32, 33, 226

  jobs, threat to. See risk-of-replacement graphs; unemployment, mass

  Johansson, Scarlett, 199

  K

  Kaixin001, 42–43

  Kasparov, Garry, 4

  Ke Jiao, 113

  Ke Jie, 1–2, 3, 5–6

  Kennedy’s man-on-the-moon speech, 98

  King, Martin Luther, Jr., 207

  Kübler-Ross, Elisabeth, 188

  Kurzweil, Ray, 140–41

  L

  labor unions, decline of, 150

  The Lean Startup, 44

  lean startup methodology, 44–45

  LeCun, Yann, 86, 88, 90, 93

  Lee, Kai-Fu

  birth of first child, 177–79

  cancer diagnosis, 176–77, 181–83, 225

  epitaphs of, 180–81, 194

  family of, 175–76, 177–79, 184–87, 193–94, 195, 225

  Master Hsing Yun and, 187–90, 195

  regrets of, 185–87, 188

  research on lymphoma, 190–92

  venture capital industry and, ix, xi, 3, 52

  will of, 183–85

  work obsession, 175–80

  Lee Sedol, 3

  legal decisions by judges, 115–16

  Lenovo, 89

  Li, Robin, 37

  lifelong learning, 204

  life purpose, loss of, 21

  Li Keqiang, 62–63

  LinkedIn, 39

  Liu Qingfeng, 105

  liveness algorithm, 118

  love

  AI as opportunity to refocus on, 176–77, 196, 210

  centrality of, in human experience, 198, 199, 225, 231–32

  Lee’s cancer and refocus on, 193–96

  Master Hsing Yun’s wisdom about, 189–90, 195

  new social contract and, 200–201

  regrets about not sharing, 185, 186–87, 195

  service-focused impact investing and, 217

  Luddite fallacy, 147–48, 151

  Lyft, 79, 137

  lymphoma, 176, 183, 190–92, 194

  M

  Ma, Jack, 34–37, 60–61, 66–67, 137

  machine learning

  advances in, recent, 160–61

  algorithms, 40. See also algorithms, AI

  chips and, 96

  data and, 56

  deep learning as part of, 6, 94

  economy driven by, 25, 84, 91, 94–95

  social investment stipend and, 221–22

  machine reading, 161

  machine translation, 104, 161

  Manhattan Project, 85

  Manpower, 47–48

  market-driven startups, 26–27, 45

  mass entrepreneurship and mass innovation, 54, 62–68, 99

  McAfee, Andrew, 148–49, 150

  McCarthy, John, 7

  McKinsey Global Institute, 159–60

  medical diagnosis, 113–15, 167, 195, 211. See also healthcare

  Meituan (Groupon clone), 23–24, 46–49, 72

  Meituan Dianping, 49, 69, 70, 72

  Mercer, Robert, 108

  Messenger, 70

  Mi AI speaker, 127

  micro-finance, 112–13, 138

  Microsoft

  AI chips and, 96

  antitrust policy and, 28

  China at time of founding of, 33

  as dominant AI player, 83, 91

  Face++ and, 90

  Lee at, 28, 33, 105, 184

  speech recognition, 93

  Tencent and, 93

  top researchers at, 93

  Microsoft Research, 91

  Microsoft Research Asia (formerly Microsoft Research China), 89–90, 105

  Middle East, 137, 139, 169

  mini-iPhones, 32

  Minsky, Marvin, 7

  mission-driven startups, 26, 45

  MIT, 30

  Mobike, 7
7–78

  mobile payments, 16, 54–55, 60–61, 73–78, 79, 110

  Momenta, 135

  monopolies, 20, 96, 168–69, 170–71, 172, 229

  Moravec, Hans, 166

  Moravec’s Paradox, 166–67

  Musical.ly, 109

  Musk, Elon, 49, 131, 141

  N

  Nanjing, China, 99

  narrow AI, 10, 142

  National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), 3

  natural-language processing, 105, 108, 115

  Netherlands, 229

  neural networks approach to AI, 7, 8–10, 89

  new world order, 18–19, 20–21, 138–39

  Ng, Andrew, 13, 44, 88, 93, 113–14, 144

  99 Taxi, 137

  Nixon, Richard, 207

  North Africa, 138

  Nuance, 105

  Nuomi (group buying affiliate), 48–49

  Nvidia, 96, 97, 135

  O

  Obama, Barack, 97–98, 100, 104

  object recognition, 9, 90, 94, 117. See also computer vision; image recognition

  OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development), 158–59, 160

  ofo, 77, 78

  Ola, 137

  one-to-one replacements of jobs, 162, 164

  online education, 204

  online-merge-offline (OMO), 117–25

  online security, 229

  online-to-offline (O2O) platforms, 16–17, 68–71, 73, 79, 110, 118, 127–28

  Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), 158–59, 160

  Osborne, Michael A., 158

  Othello (game), 4

  outsourcing, 150

  Oxford University, 158, 160, 161

  P

  Page, Larry, 33, 205

  Palantir, 111–12

  paralegals, 213

  pattern-finding, 10–11, 13, 166–67

  payment-by-scan, 74–75

  PayPal, 36

  pay-with-your-face, 118

  Peking University, 108

  perception AI, 105–6, 117–28, 136

  personal care aides, 214

  physical labor and risk of replacement, 156, 168

  point-of-sale (POS) devices, 74, 77

  Pony.ai, 135

  posture analysis, 122

  PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), 18, 151, 159, 160, 161, 162, 169

  privacy issues, 124–25, 229

  productivity, 146–52, 154, 167. See also great decoupling

  psychological crisis, 5, 21, 147, 173

  publication, instant, 87–88

  PwC. See PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)

  Q

  Qianlong (emperor), 29

  Qihoo 360 (web security software), 41–42

  QQ (messaging platform), 41–42, 58

  QR codes, 74, 77

  Qualcomm, 96

  Q-Zone (social network), 58

  R

  Reddit, 109

  Reddy, Raj, 4

  red envelopes, 60, 61

  redistribution of wealth, 203–4, 206–8, 222

  reducing work hours, 203, 205–6, 207

  reinforcement learning, 12, 143

  Renren (social network), 23, 42–43, 48

  ResNet, 90

  retraining, 203, 204–5, 207, 215, 216, 221–22

  ride sharing, 68–69, 76, 79, 137–38

  risk-of-replacement graphs, 155–57, 204, 205–6, 211

  robot reporters, 108

  robots and robotics, 129–30, 166–68, 230

  rule-based approach to AI, 7–8

  RXThinking, 114–15

  S

  Schmidt, Eric, 90

  science fiction, 144–45, 168, 172, 199, 230

  Sculley, John, 177–78

  search habits, divergent, 37–38

  The Second Machine Age (Brynjolfsson and McAfee), 148–49, 150

  self-driving cars

  AI chips and, 96, 97

  approaches for deployment of, 131–35

  China vs. U.S., 136

  deep learning and, 10–11

  in India, 138

  political culture divide and, 101–2

  ride-hailing companies and, 137

  semiconductors, 96

  “A Sense of Purpose” (Fink), 215

  service jobs, creation of, and compensation for, 214–15, 216

  service work and social investment stipend, 221, 222

  Seven Giants of the AI age, 83, 91–92, 93, 94, 95, 169

  sharing economy, 213–14

  Shenzhen, China, 99, 125–26, 127, 130–31

  shopping carts, perception AI–powered, 119–21, 124, 125

  Silicon Valley

  Baidu’s AI lab in, 93

  China’s competition with. See China and U.S., competition between

  China’s technology environment compared to, 15–16, 43–45, 49, 55, 57, 65, 71–73

  China’s version of, 51–53, 63

  Chinese copycat entrepreneurs and, 22–25, 28, 30–34, 49

  chip development in, 96–97

  data gathered by, 56

  eBay and, 35–36

  ecosystem of, 52–53

  elite expertise in, 82, 83

  entrepreneurs of, 15–16, 22, 26, 27, 52, 168

  failure in China, 39–40

  four waves of AI and, 106

  global markets and, 137, 138

  lean startup methodology and, 44–45

  policy suggestions coming from, 201

  resistance to product modifications, 24, 38, 39

  resistance to subsidies, 76

  ride sharing and, 68

  universal basic income and, 207, 208–10, 218

  world technology market domination, 2, 11–12

  Silicon Valley (TV series), 55

  Simon, Herbert, 7

  Singapore, 20, 137, 146

  T

  the singularity, 140–41, 142

  Sinovation Ventures

  Guo’s attraction of, 52, 62

  Lee’s founding of, 52, 57, 64, 67

  startups incubated by, 57, 58

  study by, 89

  Smart Finance, 112–13, 163

  smartphones

  China’s alternate internet universe and, 54, 61

  Chinese leapfrogging of PCs with, 57–58

  Chinese students and, 3, 83

  chips in, 96

  mini-iPhones, 32

  Mobikes and, 78

  mobile payments and, 74, 75

  processing power in, 9

  WeChat app for, 58–59, 61, 70

  Zhongguancun and, 52

  social entrepreneurship, 216–17

  social investment stipend, 220–24

  Softbank, 153

  Sohoo (search engine), 31

  solar panels, photovoltaic, 133

  Solyndra, 100

  Southeast Asia, 137, 169

  South Korea, 146, 159, 228–29

  Soviet Union, 3

  Space Race, 3

  SpaceX, 49

  speech recognition

  advances in, recent, 161

  Baidu and, 93

  deep learning and, 5, 10

  educational applications, 123

  iFlyTek and, 104–5

  international competitions in, 87, 104–5

  Lee and, 177–78

  legal applications, 115

  in the mainstream, 143

  Microsoft Research and, 81

  neural networks and, 8–9, 10

  privacy and, 124

  speech synthesis, 104–5, 177

  Sphinx, 8

  Sputnik, 3

  Sputnik Moment for China (2016), 3, 11

  Steal Vegetables, 43

  steam engine, 149, 150, 152, 154, 228

  Stoppelman, Jeremy, 72

  strawberry picking, 129

  strong features vs. weak features, 110–11, 113, 191

  structured data, 111–12

  Summers, Lawrence, 151

  super-app model, 70–71. See also WeChat
/>   superintelligence, 140–42, 143, 144

  Superintelligence (Bostrom), 141, 142

  swarm intelligence, 130–31

  Switzerland, 229

  symbolic systems, 7

  Taiwan, 181–82, 183–84, 187, 190, 192, 197

  Taobao, 35–36, 66

  task-based approach to jobs at risk, 159–60, 162, 163

  taxi drivers and ride-hailing apps, 76

  Taxify, 137

  techno-optimists, 147–48, 151, 171, 200, 202

  techno-utilitarianism, 101, 102, 103, 132

  Tencent. See also WeChat

  Chinese startups and, 58

  as dominant AI player, 83, 91, 93

  global markets and, 137

  Groupon partnership with, 47–48

  internet AI and, 109

  Microsoft Research Asia and, 89

  mobile payments and, 73–74, 76

  “Pearl Harbor attack” on Alibaba, 60–61

  success of, 40

  super-app model and, 70–71

 

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